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  • dklblee

    When players talk about doing research, what research are they doing? Articles? Player projections? Offense vs. defense? Do you use only Rotogrinders website or others? Fairly new player……….any advice would be great.

  • JEFFRAMBO

    My research on a typical NFL week goes like this:
    1. I look at the Vegas totals and sort them as high, low, even.
    2. I use the Vegas information to predict the game script for each game.
    3. Based on my perceived game script, I target players and then project their performance in terms of fantasy points scored.
    4. I then take my projections and compare them to 3 other paid subscription sites. If two of the three see what I am seeing, I stick with my projections. If two of the three see things differently, I look to see what I am missing.
    5. I then look at two DFS writers I respect a lot who break down every slate game-by-game and I see if I missed anything.
    6. I then rank my players by position based on my final projections.
    7. I then look at each player I am targeting on each site to determine the required salary % that will need to be allocated to them and this determines where my exposure to them will be.
    8. I break my quarterbacks up by my total spend for the week and start allocating players to different lineups based on my projections and perceived game script coupled with where the most inefficient pricing is site wise.

    When I have matters of deciding between players where my projections are dead or near even, I look at game film using NFL Game Pass and Fantasy Points Allowed Against stats to act as the tiebreaker.

    Once my lineups are set, I do two final checks for injuries on Saturday night and Sunday morning. I usually don’t check weather too much since it has limited bearing for me in my game style. Throughout the week I will also listen to Sirus XM Fantasy Radio to see what the pundits are suggesting to everyone as this gives me a real-time sense of what ownership will be and helps me determine my fades. Lastly I will check beat reporters on Twitter to see any last minute happenings that could change things, but this is usually included in the two writers I read who break down each slate.

  • BobGrinder

    @JEFFRAMBO said...

    Double Tap

    Rule number two!

  • actingnurse

    #3 – beware of bathrooms.

  • dklblee

    Thanks for replying jefframbo……that’s pretty extensive and impressive

  • deejones49

    @JEFFRAMBO said...

    My research on a typical NFL week goes like this:
    1. I look at the Vegas totals and sort them as high, low, even.
    2. I use the Vegas information to predict the game script for each game.
    3. Based on my perceived game script, I target players and then project their performance in terms of fantasy points scored.
    4. I then take my projections and compare them to 3 other paid subscription sites. If two of the three see what I am seeing, I stick with my projections. If two of the three see things differently, I look to see what I am missing.
    5. I then look at two DFS writers I respect a lot who break down every slate game-by-game and I see if I missed anything.
    6. I then rank my players by position based on my final projections.
    7. I then look at each player I am targeting on each site to determine the required salary % that will need to be allocated to them and this determines where my exposure to them will be.
    8. I break my quarterbacks up by my total spend for the week and start allocating players to different lineups based on my projections and perceived game script coupled with where the most inefficient pricing is site wise.

    When I have matters of deciding between players where my projections are dead or near even, I look at game film using NFL Game Pass and Fantasy Points Allowed Against stats to act as the tiebreaker.

    Once my lineups are set, I do two final checks for injuries on Saturday night and Sunday morning. I usually don’t check weather too much since it has limited bearing for me in my game style. Throughout the week I will also listen to Sirus XM Fantasy Radio to see what the pundits are suggesting to everyone as this gives me a real-time sense of what ownership will be and helps me determine my fades. Lastly I will check beat reporters on Twitter to see any last minute happenings that could change things, but this is usually included in the two writers I read who break down each slate.

    That is strong

  • theoddsmaker

    I use Vegas odds as much as the next guy but I think they are overrated in that there’s only so much you can do with them unless you are legit using them in a model.

    I mean it cracks me up when every week the Pats have a high total and people make the claim Vegas thinks something is up with the Pats…play all the Brady! Vegas odds are just basically common sense public perception.

    Best thing to do for NFL is figure out all of the players that are LEAST likely to score a TD….then just take all of said players….then profit.

  • UnregisteredUser

    @JEFFRAMBO said...

    3. Based on my perceived game script, I target players and then project their performance in terms of fantasy points scored.

    Care to elaborate on how you formulate your projections? And if you don’t want to that’s fine, but perhaps you could shed some light on which inputs carry the most weight in your model?

  • BobGrinder

    I would love to see someone break their process down for an actual game start to finish. From the Vegas line through the script to making projections. Wouldn’t have to be an upcoming game. I think that would be a huge help to new players.

  • ThemGuys

    What specific paid site are you looking to? Is this statistical analysis or more insight. Would you mind sharing?

  • eugenepriley

    Who are the two DFS writers you like?

  • JEFFRAMBO

    @UnregisteredUser said...

    Care to elaborate on how you formulate your projections? And if you don’t want to that’s fine, but perhaps you could shed some light on which inputs carry the most weight in your model?

    Truthfully my projections rely more on empirical data than anything else. Analytical data plays a role for sure, but not as much for me in NFL DFS as I watch more football than most. Whereas in a sport like MLB, even though it is my first and foremost favorite sport, I cannot watch every day’s worth of games… therefore I have to rely on analytical data primarily for my projections. Having a better feel for game flow based on immersing myself in each week of NFL gives me a better comfort level taking an empirical approach to my projections as I see game flow going so the elements and values I utilize in my projections probably wouldn’t translate well to use for others.

  • JEFFRAMBO

    @ThemGuys said...

    What specific paid site are you looking to? Is this statistical analysis or more insight. Would you mind sharing?

    I use(d) 3 sites. RotoGrinders, FantasyLabs, and a third site that I will not name. Not because I don’t want to share it as it is the holy grail of DFS …. but because I am actually cutting it out of my process this week as I feel the quality of their product has diminished so I can’t endorse it in good conscience. Going to remove it from my process for the next 3 weeks and see if my results improve or go by the wayside. If the latter, I will revisit the site and audit their projections (which I stored) against the other sites to see if it was a fluke or truly bad quality control of the product which I am leaning toward.

    I have used all of the paid sites out there though and none have helped me more than RotoGrinders or FantasyLabs in terms of comparing/contrasting against my own data sets. I also subscribe to SiriusXM so I am constantly listening to the Fantasy Sports station 24/7 and hear all of the experts day-in and day-out, which has given me a solid hold on their track records which tend to translate to the sites they rep or endorse for the most part.

    The problem with this though is that many of these hosts are still entrenched in the season-long fantasy mindset and that translates horribly to DFS. Jeff Mans is a prime example. He is a great season-long fantasy guru, but when it comes to DFS … put on your ear muffs and tune anything he says out; at least if it relates to GPP play (which is all I focus on). A few weeks back he outright called anyone who started Brian Hoyer against the Colts an idiot days after he was brought in to replace Mallett in-game. Whereas anyone in-tune with GPP strategy knows that this was a brilliant play if you had the bankroll to justify the risk tolerance needed of playing a back-up who hadn’t yet officially been named the starter yet on a Thursday-Sunday slate. The fact that he could not understand this logic told me he still had a very season-long minded approach to his DFS play and I officially voted him off my island as a noisemaker versus being a signal caller.

    On the other hand there are sites like Fantasy Insiders that provide solid content that I endorse, but I view it as an overlap to the content I already subscribe to on RotoGrinders and paling in comparison to the analytics I can access on FantasyLabs… so while I don’t knock sites such as FI, I just consume my content here (and at FL) instead of there, but would not shy anyway from subscribing to their site. It’s much like a pair of shoes… what may be comfortable for me won’t be for everyone else.

  • JEFFRAMBO

    @eugenepriley said...

    Who are the two DFS writers you like?

    The two writers I pretty much religiously read weekly would be JM Tohline (JMToWin here on RotoGrinders) and Evan Silva (RotoWorld). Their game-by-game breakdown is hands down the best. I break down each game internally just as they do in their weekly columns and then I put all three pieces side-by-side and compare to see if I missed anything, often times I did and sometimes we all agree across the board. This does wonders for me in terms of niching down even more or questioning something I was big on going into the week but have reason to pivot from toward the end of the week.

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