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  • topspinner

    I wonder if you guys think that reverse splits are a real thing for pitchers. The reason I ask is that I noticed Sean Newcombe has huge reverse splits over the last two years, however he pitched twice against the pads in the last two weeks and they started a virtually all righty lineup, i think they scored a total of 1 run against newcombe. I am sure the pads manager is much smarter than me, if reverse splits are a real things why would he start an all righty lineup?

    Also, if they are a real thing I have never seen a switch hitter bat the opposite way against a reverse split pitcher. All the numbers I look at say it is real, but I have never seen anyone manage as if they are. Is it just a case of conventional wisdom type thing and managers don’t think outside the box?

  • bucherpsu08

    Well it goes both ways. Lots of hitters have drastic splits as well so you wouldn’t just throw out a bunch of lefties that can’t hit left handed pitching just because the pitcher has reverse splits.

  • jtkucheck

    Put it this way- ownership and especially media/fans aren’t looking into these things, they will just see that you are bucking the conventional platoon advantage thinking. If it doesn’t work (even the best hitters have a 30% chance of getting a hit every at-bat, so the odds are against you), you will be grilled for it. If you do something that is statistically likely to fail (even if you have a higher probability of success than before) and the people that determine whether or not you have a job don’t understand why, all they will see is that you are bucking conventional wisdom and failing, which is a good recipe for not having a job much longer.

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

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    I think it’s different with every pitcher and every hitter as far as reverse splits go.

    Newcomb uses his fastball a lot, and has an above average changeup that he uses a lot more against righties than lefties. With the left on left matchup, he uses his slider more than his changeup against lefties. On top of those pitches, he has a really good curveball.

  • jimmyrad

    Reverse splits aren’t to be trusted, even over sample sizes so large you’d think they’d have to be. I mean I know there’s been a few pitchers over the years that have had that one pitch (usually a slider) that gets oppo guys out better, creating real reverse splits. For every one of those there’s many, many false positives, so much so that it isn’t worth anything. Like you said, even the mongoloids running the Padres recognize this.

  • dolphinkick182

    @jimmyrad said...

    Reverse splits aren’t to be trusted, even over sample sizes so large you’d think they’d have to be. I mean I know there’s been a few pitchers over the years that have had that one pitch (usually a slider) that gets oppo guys out better, creating real reverse splits. For every one of those there’s many, many false positives, so much so that it isn’t worth anything. Like you said, even the mongoloids running the Padres recognize this.

    Only trust them against Matt Moore :)

  • topspinner

    Newcombe going against basically an all righty lineup today, it will be interesting to see how he does.

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