STRATEGY FORUM

Comments

  • lpdev

    I need advice on how to proceed. I’ll start with a little bit of history. I have been successful in NBA DFS over the course of the past 2 seasons. I define successful as putting in a ridiculous number of hours into research and turning a less than minimum wage profit on my time (but profit is profit right!).

    At the end of the NBA season I was up a good bit in my bankroll and disappointed when the contests started to die down. I decided to transition into MLB so my wife could be frustrated with me all year instead of just in the winter. I started out playing only small stuff while I watched what was winning the big GPP’s. I eventually settled on my own process of building stacked lineups and proceeded to refine my process over the course of the past 2 months. I did this by building 150 lineups each night that I would not enter in to any contest. Then I would look at how my lineups faired the following day using the actual results and game data. I tracked the results in a spreadsheet and waited until I was convinced that I could be profitable running 150 lineups a night. I decided that I had enough bankroll from my NBA season built up that I could play through the worst stretch of games that I found on my spreadsheet (which was a 7 night losing skid). So I decided I was going all in on the DK $8 150 entry contest they run. I’m quite disappointed that the entry level contest for playing in mass now costs $8 an entry (but that’s a topic for another day). My mistake might have been jumping all in right after I had a couple of good nights (without actually putting the lineups in). So I started playing each night, vowing not to give up because I knew my process was solid. Here I am after 7 days of consecutive bad nights. I’ve tied my previous losing streak and am down about half my bankroll.

    On one side of the token….If I continue for 7 more nights and the same stuff goes down, I’ll end up with no bankroll and will be done until I have to do a deposit to get started on the new NBA season. I hate starting over at the bottom on bankroll. If I do go this route and lose it all, I guess a mandatory DFS break for a couple of months wouldn’t be that bad.

    On the flip side….If I stop today and play small through the rest of the season, I will have a good bankroll left to get me going on NBA. But!?, I will feel inclined to build my 150 lineups anyway just to see what would happen. I’m not sure I could handle it if I jumped off the slump only to find that the next night was the end of the slump. This would mean that I both jumped on and off at the two worst possible points.

    So how do I proceed? Do I trust my process and risk everything I worked hard to build up to last NBA season? Or do I bail now and wait for next NBA season. Does losing 7 nights in a row mean my process is bad? Or could I just be unfortunate? Do the major players that make all the money have 7 night skids? I’m starting to doubt my lineup building process slightly but the historical numbers don’t lie.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    What was your profit and ROI on your paper lineups that you built for those two months? If those numbers were thin, then cut back your play significantly and/or wait for NBA. If it was big and you truly are confident, keep trying. Can you cut down to a smaller entry fee contest (with lower multi-entry limits possibly) to make your bankroll last longer if you continue to struggle?

  • lpdev

    @sochoice said...

    What was your profit and ROI on your paper lineups that you built for those two months? If those numbers were thin, then cut back your play significantly and/or wait for NBA. If it was big and you truly are confident, keep trying. Can you cut down to a smaller entry fee contest (with lower multi-entry limits possibly) to make your bankroll last longer if you continue to struggle?

    My ROI was great before I actually started putting the money in (funny how that works). I’m leaning towards continuing on at least for another night or two (but with some knowledge of probability I know that my approach is no more likely to win tonight or tomorrow than it was the other times). I like to think that based on the previous results that my nights would start to go the other way. But if you flip a coin 20 times trying to get heads and miss every single time, you have the exact same odds on the 21st flip of the coin as you did on the others. I think at some point I’ll need to cut my losses if I don’t start hitting and try to save some for NBA so I don’t have to start from scratch.

    I can go to the lower multi-entry limit stuff if needed. I have done decent on the 20 entry stuff but 150 entries lets me cover my bases well. At NBA I have done well with single entries or just a handful of entries. In MLB, I have no faith in a single entry. You can’t rely on any one player to accomplish anything on a given night. I realize everyone else is in the same boat but the lack of consistency in the sport has driven me towards more entries.

  • craftylefty

    • 403

      RG Overall Ranking

    I would say you are probably way under bankrolled for this. Personally, I would only play about 2% of my bankroll if I was max entering this nightly. That would put your bankroll to do this properly at around 60k.

  • cb35

    2013 FFFC Finalist, 2013 DFFC Finalist

    • 2013 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    The short answer is you put too much of your bankroll at risk and your bankroll wasn’t big enough to sustain 150 max x $8/night. I would put only 2-4% at risk per slate if playing GPP only. The reason is as you found out a bad swing of slates and you will be broke. I would consider switching to 20 max if you wanted to continue playing.

  • lpdev

    I agree completely, I didn’t have the right bankroll to start on this venture. I feel confident that with the right bankroll I could make a nice profit in the long term using my research and lineup building strategy. Getting started without the right funds was a mistake but now I feel invested in the process and am stuck trying to make the tough decision of seeing it through to the end or trying to find a new way to attack MLB. All I need is that one big win and I feel so close I can almost taste it. With the entry level being at $8 a pop, I’m not sure I’ll ever have the right bankroll for that. It would be great if they had a $1 or $2 contest of this format so I could have worked my way up to the bigger stakes. How is someone supposed to ever take on mass multi entry when the bankroll required to do so is this high?

  • snapped

    Find close to middle ground. Do 68 Line ups. Randomly distribute them as follows and let chips fall where they may. In these events (except the $4) your ROI should also go up due to the new restrictions removing the elite players from the fields.

    20 x $1 7k Solo Shot
    20 x $2 2.5k Flare
    3 x $3 6k Hot Corner
    1 x $3 2k Pick Off
    20 x $4 100k Four Seamer
    1 x $5 3k Chin Music
    3 x $5 4k Five Tool Player

    That’s 124.5k in combined prize pools as opposed to 115k combined in the $8 event. If your skills are genuine you don’t need 150 line ups.

  • craftylefty

    • 403

      RG Overall Ranking

    https://foreverjobless.com/sunk-cost-fallacy/

    You made a mistake by playing over your bankroll. You realize that now. Take your medicine, play within your bankroll. Keep on grinding and learning.

  • lpdev

    @Snapped I’ve looked into this approach earlier in the season. The tough part on this is that the contests aren’t equal in both entry and payout structure. A huge night would only be an ok night if my big entries hit in the Solo Shot. It also makes it hard to project long term results based on my lineup building. That’s not to say this isn’t the way to go for an entry level player. I’d be interested to know if there are some having success using this approach and any tips for lineup distribution among the contests (i’m not sure random is good here)? With that being said every time I have looked into this I find myself deciding that just building 20 entries and putting them in multiple contests is the way to go.

  • joerapjr

    I would consider switching to the 20-max or just taking some time off in general and waiting for NBA to start back up. It sounds like not only are you a strong NBA DFS player, but that you enjoy it. It’s important to play both what you’re good at and what you enjoy!

  • lpdev

    Thanks for all the solid advice. TBH, although I’ve lost horribly, I’ve had the most fun following along with baseball the last few nights. I think I’m going to follow through. If it turns around, awesome! If not I’ll enjoy a break before the NBA kicks in. I definitely want to stop myself if I get down to around $1K left in my account. That’s plenty of money to make my NBA season and that way I don’t have to do a deposit. That’s about where I started last NBA season. Time to get my Rally Cap on!

  • kroto

    this is the problem with this 20max BS, DK implemented, guys have build their strategies on 150 max, over the past year and all of a sudden youre asking them to pay 8$ an entry, it totally alienated mid and low tier players, because if youre entering 1200$ a night you need a bankroll of 50-60K, only the top guys have that, and winning the 20max touneys wont even get you near there lol you’d need to win it like 10 times to move up the stake, so funny huh.i remember last yr when the four-seamer was 150max and winning it was descent enough to move up the stake, but now its just another washed up contest where winning it is just pocket change. MLB is a very volatile game, id tried over the past couple weeks to come up with a strategy for the 20max touneys and ive fallen short. so i just switch to fanduel instead, its harder to win on fanduel but at least the stratregies ive worked on over a year or two dont go to waste.

  • lpdev

    @kroto said...

    this is the problem with this 20max BS, DK implemented, guys have build their strategies on 150 max, over the past year and all of a sudden youre asking them to pay 8$ an entry, it totally alienated mid and low tier players, because if youre entering 1200$ a night you need a bankroll of 50-60K, only the top guys have that, and winning the 20max touneys wont even get you near there lol you’d need to win it like 10 times to move up the stake, so funny huh.i remember last yr when the four-seamer was 150max and winning it was descent enough to move up the stake, but now its just another washed up contest where winning it is just pocket change. MLB is a very volatile game, id tried over the past couple weeks to come up with a strategy for the 20max touneys and ive fallen short. so i just switch to fanduel instead, its harder to win on fanduel but at least the stratregies ive worked on over a year or two dont go to waste.

    ^This….When I first started in NBA on DK there was this awesome $3 multi entry tournament with a big prize. It changed into the $4 and then the $6. Now on baseball the lowest is the $8 (this is my first year doing baseball so I’m not sure about how things were previously). Don’t get me wrong, the 20 entry limit tournaments aren’t a bad thing. They just need one low entry fee tournament that allows 150 entries. I think everyone enjoys the opportunity to throw a few dollars and some more creative lineups into a huge pool for a shot at hitting it big. I don’t have the luxury of playing FD since they pulled out of Texas.

  • BogeyTMF

    “I would say you are probably way under bankrolled for this. Personally, I would only play about 2% of my bankroll if I was max entering this nightly. That would put your bankroll to do this properly at around 60k.”

    Craftlefty is right – you need to play a % of your bankroll, not a set dollar amount. You also don’t need to max enter. I’ve done extensive research that shows no better results in the 101st-150th lineups than in 1-50 on an aggregate basis. Yes, you get more shots, but the best overall score from your 150 on any slate will be evenly distributed between the three cohorts of 50 lineups (1-50, 51-100, 101-150)

  • Heterodox

    @lpdev said...

    I’m not sure I could handle it if I jumped off the slump only to find that the next night was the end of the slump. This would mean that I both jumped on and off at the two worst possible points.

    So how do I proceed? Do I trust my process and risk everything I worked hard to build up to last NBA season?

    I would say stop thinking in those terms, and take each slate as a discrete event. This idea of starting or stopping at the right or wrong times is extraneous and will bleed into your lineup decisions like “when I use these players they do nothing, but when I don’t they go off”. That’s my single biggest tilt issue, because it looks so real, like it’s almost personal. But it’s just a perception, and it is utterly meaningless, but can make you gun-shy when you feel like you only do well when you’re not risking much money, and you lose every time you go for it. Don’t factor these random streaks into your decision making, except in the sense of understanding what kind of bankroll you need to withstand them.

    Now, as far as that goes, only you can say if the amount you won in NBA is an amount that would make you sick if you lost it all, or would be difficult for you to replace if you want to continue playing. As important as bankroll management is – and it’s probably the single most important thing in any kind of sustained gambling endeavor – I would literally ignore all the generic, conventional advice you see from these people who have no idea what kind of money you’re talking about, what your personal situation is, or what your process is. If you have good reason to think your process is good, and you want to see it through, and you can afford to redeposit if you need to, then soldier on. If you’re not comfortable risking the rest of your bankroll, then don’t, or find a middle ground. It also matters what your strategy is, if you’re taking a lot of risk by going all-in around your core, or if you’re spreading it around a bit. The point is, there’s no right or wrong answer here, only you know what your situation is.

    Though, I will say, if you’re going to hang it up after 7 bad slates, I don’t know why you got into it in the first place. And if you started with a well-researched process, to change it up now might only throw you off.

  • lpdev

    Just wanted to give an update. The slump is officially over. I kept playing and finally hit on the Rally Cap on Wednesday! Took 4th, 6th, 9th and 14th. Now if I could just win 1st a few times… I have stuck to my process the whole time. It’s hard not to start looking for things to change when you are on a losing streak. I knew that it would start to regress back to the mean at some point (I’m just glad that has happened prior to my bankroll depleting). I also had a nice night last night with a Rangers stack although I was only doing 20 entries because the Rally Cap wasn’t big enough to justify my play.

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