I need advice on how to proceed. I’ll start with a little bit of history. I have been successful in NBA DFS over the course of the past 2 seasons. I define successful as putting in a ridiculous number of hours into research and turning a less than minimum wage profit on my time (but profit is profit right!).
At the end of the NBA season I was up a good bit in my bankroll and disappointed when the contests started to die down. I decided to transition into MLB so my wife could be frustrated with me all year instead of just in the winter. I started out playing only small stuff while I watched what was winning the big GPP’s. I eventually settled on my own process of building stacked lineups and proceeded to refine my process over the course of the past 2 months. I did this by building 150 lineups each night that I would not enter in to any contest. Then I would look at how my lineups faired the following day using the actual results and game data. I tracked the results in a spreadsheet and waited until I was convinced that I could be profitable running 150 lineups a night. I decided that I had enough bankroll from my NBA season built up that I could play through the worst stretch of games that I found on my spreadsheet (which was a 7 night losing skid). So I decided I was going all in on the DK $8 150 entry contest they run. I’m quite disappointed that the entry level contest for playing in mass now costs $8 an entry (but that’s a topic for another day). My mistake might have been jumping all in right after I had a couple of good nights (without actually putting the lineups in). So I started playing each night, vowing not to give up because I knew my process was solid. Here I am after 7 days of consecutive bad nights. I’ve tied my previous losing streak and am down about half my bankroll.
On one side of the token….If I continue for 7 more nights and the same stuff goes down, I’ll end up with no bankroll and will be done until I have to do a deposit to get started on the new NBA season. I hate starting over at the bottom on bankroll. If I do go this route and lose it all, I guess a mandatory DFS break for a couple of months wouldn’t be that bad.
On the flip side….If I stop today and play small through the rest of the season, I will have a good bankroll left to get me going on NBA. But!?, I will feel inclined to build my 150 lineups anyway just to see what would happen. I’m not sure I could handle it if I jumped off the slump only to find that the next night was the end of the slump. This would mean that I both jumped on and off at the two worst possible points.
So how do I proceed? Do I trust my process and risk everything I worked hard to build up to last NBA season? Or do I bail now and wait for next NBA season. Does losing 7 nights in a row mean my process is bad? Or could I just be unfortunate? Do the major players that make all the money have 7 night skids? I’m starting to doubt my lineup building process slightly but the historical numbers don’t lie.