PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: July 1-4

    Where: Detroit, MI

    Course: Detroit Golf Club | A par 72 playing at 7334 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Bryson DeChambeau at -23

    Last Year’s Cut: -5

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | CBS

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal 2021 Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • titanhawks

    @kps3205s said...

    And as a reminder just in case…make sure you enter your “gimmick” LU into some contests so there are….

    Thanks for that reminder; almost forgot and would have probably after just finishing my PGATOUR and Fantrax LU’s

    JimmyGolfs had this under 7K Tourney running a long time in the league before some dick kept playing over 7K players apparently unaware of his surroundings

  • lfn1992

    @kdsdawg said...

    shouldn’t affect him, been three weeks, minor surgery

    You obviously haven’t had appendix surgery. I get athletes get different health care and recuperate faster, but still

  • JimKronlund

    @lfn1992 said...

    You obviously haven’t had appendix surgery. I get athletes get different health care and recuperate faster, but still

    The procedure is much less invasive now then when I had it done many years ago. Perhaps yours was long ago as well?

  • kdsdawg

    @lfn1992 said...

    You obviously haven’t had appendix surgery. I get athletes get different health care and recuperate faster, but still

    I am sure not only has he been hitting a ton of golf balls but playing as well. I am sure if didn’t feel he could compete he would not play.

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 395

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    I’m having a really hard time with Bryson this week.

    Most expensive. Likely will be 30+% owned.
    Top golfer in my model. Defending champ. Weak field.

    I don’t like Reed or Webb this week. If you need to get to -20+ to win, that’s not what they do. They win on tough tracks where you need to avoid bogeys and scramble well to win.

    Mats has played well here before but he is in the similar mold to Reed and Webb. Willy Z has been in bad form but if he is going to win on Tour it will be in a place like this where he can laser every pin. The form concerns me.

    Really, I have to get to Kokrak before I am like, yeah, I want to go heavy on this guy. Strange week.

  • lfn1992

    @JimKronlund said...

    The procedure is much less invasive now then when I had it done many years ago. Perhaps yours was long ago as well?

    Mine was a long time ago, granted. Fun fact: mine was emergency surgery and the story was the appendix ruptured in the surgeon’s hand just as they removed it. Had I not been rushed into the doctor’s office I might not have made it.

    Mine was a big scar (I want to say 2-3 inches) and they cut through the muscle. So I was bedridden for several weeks and it took me more than a month to get back to normal.

  • lfn1992

    I’ve MMEed 150 LUs 3 out of the last 4 weeks and lost money on all three. Am I really going to go back to the well and do it again?

  • byo34

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    I don’t like Reed or Webb this week. If you need to get to -20+ to win, that’s not what they do. They win on tough tracks where you need to avoid bogeys and scramble well to win.

    I am not taking either of the two, but this just isn’t the case. Webb and Reed both have the same amount of wins as Bryson does with a winning score of at least 20 under. Webb literally just won the Heritage a year ago at -22 and Reed beat out Bryson himself in a birdie contest at that WGC event last year as well. All 3 are well suited for putting contests.

    I am 100% with you on being conflicted with the top salary guys.. I was on Webb but just don’t know if I trust him to go low for 4 days after playing so little competitive golf the past few months. Kokrak sounds very solid, I might end up going the 9k route.

  • cplatt87

    The more I look at this week the more I start to feel better about loading in two of the 10k+ guys in every lineup and just building around that. It seems like there’s going to be a decent amount of ownership in that 8-9k range, so avoiding it entirely might be the play from an ownership standpoint.

    I really like Bryson and Zalatoris this week, but can probably find a reason to include Reed and Webb as well. I’m not big on Hideki.

  • JimKronlund

    The amount of DFS points a player gets is what matters. Ownership doesn’t.

  • Getty33

    @JimKronlund said...

    The amount of DFS points a player gets is what matters. Ownership doesn’t.

    In general this is true. Ownership is only important if more than 50% of the say 6 to 8 highest owned players miss the cut and you don’t have any of them. It just clears out the field assuming your lineup gets through 6/6.

  • nicholasmarsh

    @JimKronlund said...

    The amount of DFS points a player gets is what matters. Ownership doesn’t.

    Preach!

  • JimKronlund

    @Getty33 said...

    In general this is true. Ownership is only important if more than 50% of the say 6 to 8 highest owned players miss the cut and you don’t have any of them. It just clears out the field assuming your lineup gets through 6/6.

    Sir that is a subjective and perspective bias. The premise of an ownership strategy is always based on “IF”.
    IF they do better they leap frog ahead. But the other side of that and equal probability is IF the do worse they leap frog back.
    There is a statistical advantage in probability (or odds) of picking higher owned players because they have a higher likelihood of doing better than lower owned players (I know “obviously”).
    In the end you need DFS points and no amount of ownership is going to change that.
    IF a player that is 75% percent owned wins and you have him. Then your subjective perspective is “great that just eliminated 25% of the field. IF you do not have him your subjective perspective is “f*ck 75% of the field just beat me”.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @JimKronlund said...

    There is a statistical advantage in probability (or odds) of picking higher owned players because they have a higher likelihood of doing better than lower owned players (I know “obviously”).

    I don’t play the “ownership” game all that much, just in exposures in my personal pool.

    I do think what you are saying there is oversimplifying things quite a bit. Maybe not for the top tier guys but there are the 8Ks and below that get missed all the time where you could argue the lower owned player is the better one (sometimes even statistically). I feel this is where the “sheep” some into play.

    It’s a bad example this week as I’m using him but there are plenty guys in the Cameron Davis area this week equal or greater than him IMO and he will likely take the most ownership.

  • JimKronlund

    @hautalak said...

    there are plenty guys in the Cameron Davis area this week equal or greater than him IMO and he will likely take the most ownership.

    And what IF he wins?

  • Money0227

    @BIF said...

    Listened to PGA Tour Radio and they said course will play different this year as it is very soft now due to a ton of rain. Webb Simpson’s caddie was on and said that they don’t like it as they wanted it dry, fast and firm.

    I think it definitely favors distance off the tee. Any thoughts I had before of fading Bryson are long gone now.

  • JimKronlund

    @Money0227 said...

    I think it definitely favors distance off the tee. Any thoughts I had before of fading Bryson are long gone now.

    Yeah I am having a hard time fading him also. I really wish List was still in the field.

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @JimKronlund said...

    And what IF he wins?

    I guess point is you can say that about anybody. At that point it isn’t an “ownership” thing.

    It just seems like you are saying the “chalk” is “chalk” for a reason and that’s fine and makes sense.

    I’d rather have a sub 5% leader over a 20% leader any day. You might say it doesn’t matter but in that scenario it does. Obviously your other 5 matter but I’d rather compete against 5% than 20% of people. Kind of feel like we’re talking about different things here or maybe I’m just spinning in circles.

  • Money0227

    @JimKronlund said...

    Yeah I am having a hard time fading him also. I really wish List was still in the field.

    I’m actually re-thinking Wolff now. Yikes…

  • JimKronlund

    @hautalak said...

    I guess point is you can say that about anybody. At that point it isn’t an “ownership” thing.

    It just seems like you are saying the “chalk” is “chalk” for a reason and that’s fine and makes sense.

    I’d rather have a sub 5% leader over a 20% leader any day. You might say it doesn’t matter but in that scenario it does. Obviously your other 5 matter but I’d rather compete against 5% than 20% of people. Kind of feel like we’re talking about different things here or maybe I’m just spinning in circles.

    You are only ever competing against teams that have higher team DFS points, regardless of ownership.

  • anon1983

    In that situation what I like to do (by no means a PGA DFS pro) is go ahead and fade him, but then throw a min bet on him to win or (top 5) on a sports book to recoup some or all of your DFS losses. Usually I figure if he gets 2nd, 4th etc it wouldn’t kill me, but only if he wins. My volume is light on PGA so usually it means like a $2 bet on the top guy I’m fading to hedge my lineups which will be mostly dead if he wins it.

    EDIT – meant to reply/quote the comment about wanting to fade Bryson cause he’s expensive and will be high owned.

  • joephoto

    @JimKronlund said...

    The amount of DFS points a player gets is what matters. Ownership doesn’t.

    YES ! People are so fixated on ownership #s.
    I just want the most points I can possibly get. Whatever the sport.
    Tie for 1st place is the norm.

  • timusbr

    @JimKronlund said...

    The amount of DFS points a player gets is what matters. Ownership doesn’t.

    I am on both sides of this debate. really everyone who has an opinion is right…..by how they see the arguments.

    DK does pay off on Points. the one and only way to win a Gpp

    Ever have a DFS winner at minus 3%. Beating 97% of the field with a ton of points has got to be an advantage. Those extra points is a cushion. When your low owned guy is up there, and he is scoring, the jumps in the leaderboard are far more telling than when the 25% owned guy does the same thing.

    Bottom line for me is….thinking ownership is an imperfect way to differentiate and take shots. Only useful if you get it right on a 6/6 or as a high % of ownership on my weekly LU’s.

    JimK, You know the IF argument well. and it can be turned against as well. we gamble and we win or lose IF (1000000 things happens). It doesnt change the fact that IF could result and might just be a way to be different and beat others.

  • timusbr

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    I’m having a really hard time with Bryson this week.

    Not a hard time for me….at first

    He is going 350 OTT, he will avoid hazzards except possible water and hitting from the rough. He is going to come from angles not designed to be an issue. but he has not been good around the green and on the green. I am not saying bad, and he could become great, but recently If I needed an approach up and down, he is not my first choice.

    later, I find myself with extra salary to spare, He is looking better and better. Because he is the highest win equity in the field. and IMHO not by a small amount.

  • byo34

    Reed saying “at least -16 or -17” to win this tourney… also mentioned how he thinks there will be longer clubs into some of the greens than usual due to all the rain they got. Rough is the most noticeable difference due to the rain.

    Sounds like this favors bombers, especially the ones who manage to find the most fairways this week.

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