STRATEGY FORUM

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  • LarryLegend33

    Was analyzing some of my early season basketball results and stumbled across this. (Someone may have posted something similar before, so apologies if this has been done to death)

    It is from last night’s NBA $1 DOUBLE UP [$15,000 GTD] (MULTI-ENTRY), which has 17025 entrants and 7500 winners, and a player can put in a max of 100 entries. I was curious to see the ROI based on how many entries a player puts into the contests. I certainly expected that the people putting in 100 entries would outperform those putting in a single entry, but the difference was startling and figured I’d share.

    Entries Per Player : Total Entries : Avg Entries Per : Players : ROI
    1 – One 2149 1 2149 -79%
    2 – Two 684 2 342 -77%
    3 – Three 342 3 114 -42%
    4 – Four 232 4 58 -52%
    5 – Five 410 5 82 -40%
    6 – 6 to 10 918 9 105 -19%
    7 – 11 to 20 1279 17 77 -14%
    8 – 21 to 50 2771 41 68 6%
    9 – 51 to 99 1540 73 21 -13%
    10 – 100 6700 100 67 15%
    Grand Total 17025 5.52 3083 -12%
  • britdevine

    • 2014 StarStreet MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    These games are the biggest scams for new players, they think its great, but the huge multi entry is a killer for them.

  • einars

    this is really interesting, thanks for putting it together!

  • bonuscash

    • 2019 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • x2

      2014 FAFC Finalist

    Wow, thanks for that data! 40% of the field were sharks maxing out 100 entries. The one entry folks are way better off scratching lotto tickets if that ROI is consistent.

    I’m sure DK thinks this is in the best interest of their customers.

  • hokie2009

    Big thumbs up, good work.

    You do the analyses in R or excel or what?

  • Loveyduvey50

    Those massive 50/50’s DK ran last year were far superior. Too bad they stopped those and chose to focus on these shit double ups.

  • hendry

    @britdevine said...

    These games are the biggest scams for new players, they think its great, but the huge multi entry is a killer for them.

    where do you stand on these for experienced players? if you assume (which may be incorrect) that the 51+ entry players are competent and probably winning players than half the field is “winning” players. i personally stay away in basketball and baseball. the football ones are so large that im much more comfortable and usually enter 40-100 depending on price point.

  • YoungFischer

    Honestly what do you expect?

    You’re facing a -12% ROI right off the bat due to rake. Then the big money pros take out another 15% ROI with their edge. The semi pros squeak out another 5% ROI. How else to distribute the approximately -35% ROI to the remaining player pool?

  • YoungFischer

    DFS is a negative sum game due to the rake made much worse by the most skilled players taking a massively disproportionate share of the prizes.

  • slcseas

    Great stuff here. Don’t know how time consuming this was, but I’d be interested to monitor this over a larger sample size. Good opportunity for a blog here if that interests you.

  • dedlata

    These multi entry double ups with 12% rake and now only micro 50/50s allow pros to get at as much money as possible from regular players. The best NBA contests DK had was the large single entry 50/50s, and they have done away with them. I’m not sure how long they think players will stick around to play contests they have no shot of beating.

  • slcseas

    @dedlata said...

    These multi entry double ups with 12% rake and now only micro 50/50s allow pros to get at as much money as possible from regular players. The best NBA contests DK had was the large single entry 50/50s, and they have done away with them. I’m not sure how long they think players will stick around to play contests they have no shot of beating.

    Millions of people still piss away money on lotto tickets, so I’m guessing they aren’t concerned.

  • dedlata

    @slcseas said...

    Millions of people still piss away money on lotto tickets, so I’m guessing they aren’t concerned.

    I think GPP is equivalent to playing lottery tickets, and there will always be people who play them. I’m specifically talking about these cash games. I think it is pretty easy to move off playing them given that they are designed to help high volume pros extract money from low entry fee games.

  • mannmicj

    I stopped playing multi-entry double-ups along time ago. They are a total joke. It should be the #1 thing for a new person to avoid (if they knew better).

  • dictator_teddy

    • 175

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2017 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    Very interesting, thank you for compiling this data. So basically, 79% of single entries lost?!!! That makes me feel like it is hard for these noob players to be sustainable, and the future of DFS really depends on advertising so that there are always fresh noobs depositing.

  • PeasantPower

    They need to bring back huge 50/50s. Double ups are a rake scam

  • hendry

    @PeasantPower said...

    They need to bring back huge 50/50s. Double ups are a rake scam

    i admit that im pretty weak in the mathematics department but i still dont really get the difference between a 50/50 that rakes 12% and a double up that rakes 12%

  • JaNelson38

    @PeasantPower said...

    They need to bring back huge 50/50s. Double ups are a rake scam

    How exactly?

    Rake is rake, no matter if its taken off the top or off the bottom. Either you dont get your full investment back if you win, or if you win you double up but because of the rake you have to beat roughly 5% more people. What…did you guys think the old BIG 50/50 DK contests didnt take any rake or something? Sheesh.

    Im hardly a “high volume pro” and have no problem with the multi-entry double ups. If your lineup is good enough, it cashes.

    So many people not seeing the forest for the trees. Dont be worried about who you’re playing…worry about building the best lineup possible. So much angst and worry over playing against “pros”, when “pros” lineup lose on a percentage basis just as much (if not more) than single-entry folks.

    If you have confidence in your lineup, you should be able to play any contest you want based on what your budget and bankroll is…because who you’re playing shouldnt matter.

    If having a 50/50 is a must, you know that DK allows you to build your own contest, right?

  • hendry

    @JaNelson38 said...

    So many people not seeing the forest for the trees. Dont be worried about who you’re playing…worry about building the best lineup possible. So much angst and worry over playing against “pros”, when “pros” lineup lose on a percentage basis just as much (if not more) than single-entry folks.

    If you have confidence in your lineup, you should be able to play any contest you want based on what your budget and bankroll is…because who you’re playing shouldnt matter.

    i dont disagree with everything you say but if you dont think game selection matters you’re doing it wrong.

    winnings players dont lose on percentage basis just as much (that literally makes 0 mathematical sense). i am a winning player in large part because of game selection. no reason to make it harder than it has to be.

  • btwice80

    @JaNelson38 said...

    Rake is rake, no matter if its taken off the top or off the bottom.

    10% rake is the same as 12% rake? Sure it is.

    Full disclosure: I had 100 entries in this contest.

  • btwice80

    @hendry said...

    i admit that im pretty weak in the mathematics department but i still dont really get the difference between a 50/50 that rakes 12% and a double up that rakes 12%

    The huge 50/50s only had 10% rake.

  • hendry

    @btwice80 said...

    The huge 50/50s only had 10% rake.

    gotcha, i clearly see that difference. the implication in a number of threads i see on rg is that double ups are a scam vs 50/50s with the same rake and that doesnt really make sense to me. the problem isnt double up vs 50/50. the problem is increased rake.

  • JaNelson38

    @btwice80 said...

    10% rake is the same as 12% rake? Sure it is.

    Full disclosure: I had 100 entries in this contest.

    Im not comparing the 12% to 10%. Im aware the rake is higher. But if two cents on the dollar higher rake makes a contest unplayable to you, there are plenty of other cash games on DK where you can play a single entry 50/50 and get the 10% rake…the contests are simply smaller.

  • LarryLegend33

    Yeah, the whole thing is crazy. In order to get a -80% ROI, you basically have to win one out of every 10 times! In a double up! And yet that is what the average person putting in an entry or two a night is seeing. I don’t think that is a sustainable predator/prey ratio here.

    I was able to do this in Excel, using the csv file. A couple of quick formulas and a pivot was able to get at the results fairly easily. I will probably play around with a couple of the contests to see if the results are normal, but I don’t think I’m up for doing a long term study. I will be happy to share any results I find. If someone else is interested, I’d be happy to share how I converted the data and/or help create a tool to autoconvert. Just reach out.

  • LarryLegend33

    @dictator_teddy said...

    So basically, 79% of single entries lost?!!!

    No, it’s actually worse than that. What it means is that for every dollar waged, a player can expect to lose $0.79.

    If you have ten players and one wins but the other 9 lose, the winning player is +$1 while the nine losers are a combined -$9. Add it together and they are -$8 on $10 waged, or a -80% ROI.

    2149 people putting in one entry. 342 people putting in two entries. And combined they averaged winning just over 1 in 10 wages in a double up.

  • einars

    i would like to point out that this is only 1 night AND it was the first real night of NBA. if there was a single night during the year where the informed player had the biggest advantage over the uninformed i would think it would be opening night.

    i would love to see this tracked over a couple weeks

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