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  • natroslezka

    Does anyone think that season long leagues have a different kind of chance involved? If my 1st and 2nd and 3rd and 4th round picks go down with an injury, I’m pretty much scrambling and wrecked for the season. The injuries and problems last for a longer period of time. And this means that the chance affects it in a more heavy way. If one player gets hurt due to chance in DFS, I always have next week, or the next day! So chance is lighter and less involved in a way that determines my season long outcome for DFS, if I decided to play every time, all season. If we frame DFS as a season long sport with just more decisions along the way, then I see no argument holding water that traditional season long has less chance involved than daily. I think that chance weighs more in season long because you are stuck with some of those decisions in ways you are not with daily.

    Of course, I’m not an exact scientist, but I welcome your thoughts.

    Nathan

  • DavidK44

    The vast majority of non-DFS people struggle with the idea that DFS isn’t simply ONE contest, rather, that a DFS player views his play as a series of many different 1-day contests.

    To the non-DFS people, DFS is a 1-day contest, and season-long is a season long contest. From that aspect, if your guy gets hurt in a 1-day contest, your team is probably done, whereas if your guy gets hurt in season-long, you can try to adjust somehow. They don’t grasp the concept that DFS is 17 weeks of 1-week contests (for NFL, just to use them as the example), so if your main guy is hurt for the first week, you may lose Week 1, but you still have Weeks 2-17 to end up a winner.

    This of course also requires bankroll management, a key skill in DFS.

    I know people don’t always like to hear the DFS vs Poker comparision, but in this light, poker has the same problem. It’s very tough to get non-poker players to understand the “skill” in poker isn’t limited to 1 hand. Yes, in any ONE HAND of No Limit Hold ‘Em, the results are incredibly luck-depedent. But NLHE success is not about any one hand, it’s about winning the most money when your dealt favorable cards, and losing the least money when you’re dealt unfavorable cards.

    How do we get people to understand this concept? I don’t really know. Poker has struggled for years to get people to understand the idea, and DFS will have the same problems. The focus is always on ONE contest. All the morons out there focus on comparing ONE week’s worth of DFS to season-long, as opposed to 17 weeks worth of DFS to season-long. I haven’t the foggiest idea how to reframe the discussion, but successfully reframing the discussion would go a LONG way to helping DFS’ long-term health.

  • natroslezka

    Thanks for that, DavidK44. I think that too, and it sounds as if the distinction made in court so far by the opposition is that season long is a cheeky family game with wagers, and that DFS is hardliner gambling. So it’s a statement about the nature of the game, the expected psychological results in some sense. All too humanly, they argue season long is about jostling and goodwill with some petty gains if any, but then frame DFS as a miserly game of dice with depraved addicts who lack casinos. Too much flyspecking DFS when the New York State Lottery sells tickets that are more than the minimum wage with all of the low win percentages that everyone knows about on the printed lottery tickets. Fact!

  • dizzle

    DFS is a series of choices. You can make the correct choice and it still may not work out in your favor. The skill part lies in the odds that if you make more correct choices than incorrect ones, in the long run you will come out ahead. Just reaffirming what David said.

  • DavidK44

    @natroslezka said...

    Thanks for that, DavidK44. I think that too, and it sounds as if the distinction made in court so far by the opposition is that season long is a cheeky family game with wagers, and that DFS is hardliner gambling. So it’s a statement about the nature of the game, the expected psychological results in some sense. All too humanly, they argue season long is about jostling and goodwill with some petty gains if any, but then frame DFS as a miserly game of dice with depraved addicts who lack casinos. Too much flyspecking DFS when the New York State Lottery sells tickets that are more than the minimum wage with all of the low win percentages that everyone knows about on the printed lottery tickets. Fact!

    Even if season-long isn’t simply cheeky family game, NY seems to think that even an expensive season-long league is vastly different. Like to them, the comparision is between one $2000-a-person season long league, versus one $2000 DFS contest.

    It does not enter their minds (and it does not enter a LOT of people’s minds) that the more apt comparision would be one $2000-a-person season long league versus 20 weeks of entering one $100 contest each week for the entire football season (plus playoffs).

    To them, it’s $2000 over a season or $2000 in one week. Once you frame it like that, you can see why they think it’s so different. When you frame it as $2000 over a season in one season-long league, versus $100 a week for 20 weeks, it’s much different. But people don’t get this. Partly because they don’t understand bankroll management as a skill, but also because people don’t see big picture. It’s the focus on the specific, or on the short-term.

    Also what Dizzle said pretty much is everything I said, just with brevity.

  • natroslezka

    Thanks David and Dizzle. I think that all sounds right and very intuitively logical. All good points. Also, you’re right that it’s all about how they frame it. It sounds as if they are just trying to use the language of sports betting and gambling in their arguments for DFS (which we avoid), but then they are pretending that season long leagues don’t have chance the way that DFS does. That is a “false whole” or just a plain fallacy. Season long leagues have chance, and when it happens, it can dramatically influence results in ways that DFS cannot over the same set of games where skill and information can guide the results more sharply.

  • MrWorldwide

    I picked Dez Bryant in the first round this year. All the skill in the world couldn’t help me find a replacement of the waiver wire. lol Over the long term DFS is definitely a more skilled game than season long. IMO

  • DavidK44

    @MrWorldwide said...

    I picked Dez Bryant in the first round this year. All the skill in the world couldn’t help me find a replacement of the waiver wire. lol Over the long term DFS is definitely a more skilled game than season long. IMO

    But those outside DFS don’t compare it that way. They look at one contest versus one contest. In ONE DFS contest, if your main guys get hurt, you’re screwed, no matter what. In ONE season-long contest, maybe you can find a replacement (probably not, but you have a chance at least).

    The point all of us agree on – that over the long-term, you get less screwed because the injury only affects you for that ONE DFS contest, and the next day’s contest you don’t have to worry about that injury, is simply not one that regulators, politicians, lawyers, moralists, and most of the public seem to understand. And I don’t know if there is a way to get them to understand. People don’t think or see big-picture very well.

  • cpleone

    I personally think over the course of the season there’s way more luck involved with traditional fantasy. If your first three picks in your draft this year were LeVeon Bell, AJ Green and Andrew Luck, you probably loved your team on draft day, and because of injury and lack of success, you’re probably not making the playoffs. And one thing I think that’s overlooked is that if you are playing season long for money, it’s way more luck dependent because what your payout will be all comes down to how you do in the playoffs. One bad week in DFS doesn’t mean you lose for the season, but if you lose in the first round of the playoffs in your season long league, you’re going to be in the negative solely because of one bad week.

  • misfit

    @MrWorldwide said...

    I picked Dez Bryant in the first round this year. All the skill in the world couldn’t help me find a replacement of the waiver wire. lol Over the long term DFS is definitely a more skilled game than season long. IMO

    The skill comes in at Drafting not only the first few rounds well but the entire draft. The first 2 rounds this year were nothing but busts. It did not matter who you took. Every team gets burned in some way or another through the season.
    If your team died because of 1 injury you had a crap draft plain and simple. I lost my top pick is the rally cry of a piss poor drafter.
    You should not have had to replace him on the wire if like me and many others you had targeted Fitz, Marshall, etc in the mid rounds. What about the guys who had Jordy? Bell? Charles? Lynch? Lacy? CJ anderson? Need i go on?
    The reality is, you have many MORE chances to make up for injury and even a bad draft in seasonal and still earn some cash.
    In DFS, your cash is on the line daily. 1 injury and your cash is gone!
    I have survived several injuries and still ahead in about 2/3 of 40 leagues at RTS. I had DEZ on a ton of them and have not even missed him.

  • bobbyrogers46

    @DavidK44 said...

    But those outside DFS don’t compare it that way. They look at one contest versus one contest. In ONE DFS contest, if your main guys get hurt, you’re screwed, no matter what. In ONE season-long contest, maybe you can find a replacement (probably not, but you have a chance at least).

    The point all of us agree on – that over the long-term, you get less screwed because the injury only affects you for that ONE DFS contest, and the next day’s contest you don’t have to worry about that injury, is simply not one that regulators, politicians, lawyers, moralists, and most of the public seem to understand. And I don’t know if there is a way to get them to understand. People don’t think or see big-picture very well.

    The reason they look at it as one contest versus one contest is because the Fantasy Sports Carve Out was intended for season long leagues. Fantasy Sports season long leagues were manipulated into Daily Fantasy Sports so that a series of more bets could be made by a daily fantasy player rather than one from a Season long player. In the alterations made, several companies found a way to make a product in which they could profit (rake) from the series of bets made by a daily fantasy player.

  • DavidK44

    @bobbyrogers46 said...

    The reason they look at it as one contest versus one contest is because the Fantasy Sports Carve Out was intended for season long leagues. Fantasy Sports season long leagues were manipulated into Daily Fantasy Sports so that a series of more bets could be made by a daily fantasy player rather than one from a Season long player. In the alterations made, several companies found a way to make a product in which they could profit (rake) from the series of bets made by a daily fantasy player.

    If you think that’s the only reason that people can’t understand that DFS is not designed to be viewed/analyzed/discussed as a ONE contest activity, then you’re incredibly naive, or you’re being obtuse intentionally.

    95% of society has a horrible understanding of long-term. It’s why poker critics always talk about how in any one hand, a person can get lucky and win. It’s why many people get into (or stay in) massive financial debt (obviously there are a lot of people who are in debt for other reasons, I am not saying this is the case for everyone). It’s what keeps JG Wentworth in business. It’s why rotogrinders stresses the importance of bankroll management. Heck, it’s why bankroll management is a skill even though almost anyone posting on this board probably reads any article on bankroll management and goes “That’s just common sense”.

    The inability for people to see the big-picture in DFS is just one symptom of the inability to see the big picture / plan long-term. For the vast majority, only the short-term matters. The long term is down the road and in the future, and not worth worrying about at this point.

  • PJGuin23

    DFS Tax Guru

    I have to deal with this on a constant basis. I know it’s generally easier for Millenials to grasp this than older generations. I’m on the Gen X/Y border and many have spouses with kids. They could be perfectly OK with SL but DFS is perceived as “gambling” mainly due to the velocity of games and the prize pools. I have to explain DFS as “weekly office fantasy football contests for all North America” and that FD and DK aren’t “the house” per se rather a medium that takes rake for these enlarged office pools.

  • bobbyrogers46

    I was of course referring to folks whom look at DFS and Season long in regards to the law and the legality of it all. There isn’t really ONE reason as to why society can grasp the difference to as why the chance is different from one to the other.

  • DavidK44

    @bobbyrogers46 said...

    I was of course referring to folks whom look at DFS and Season long in regards to the law and the legality of it all. There isn’t really ONE reason as to why society can grasp the difference to as why the chance is different from one to the other.

    But even in that context, when the topic of online poker comes up, the oppositing always frames the discussion by talking about the luck of the cards in any one hand, as opposed to the skill of extracting the most value when the cards are in your favor and losing the least when the cards are not, over many many hands.

    So the carve out isn’t the only reason. Legally, in almost every jurisdiction, the question is what role does chance play (the differences in jursdictions rests in how much chance is permissible) in any one contest. The way the law is set-up (and the way the debate is framed by the people pushing for bans or regulation) ignores that one of the main skills is simply putting yourself in a favorable position each contes by building better lineups than the other players and instead focuses that in any one contest, my lineup can be far superior and luck will still play a huge role.

    It’s not just because of the carve-out. That plays a role, sure, but it’s just one part.

  • natroslezka

    Also DFS is fun in ways that poker is not!

  • Turk182

    variance is variance there are no different kinds of chance as certainly dfs has much less variance compared on a per entry level than season long

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