MAIN FORUM

Comments

  • bozzburg

    Long time (Losing) player here. For as long as I have been playing I have just come to the conclusion that DFS is 99% luck and 1% skill.

    Regardless of the research done one never knows when a low percentage draft is going to pop off.

    I am either ahead of the curve in a slate only to find myself tumbling downward near the end or so far back with late starting players in a slate that I can never break into the green.

    Time and time again however, I am watching the same people not only win GPP’s but have 30% of the payouts with their lineups hogging up the entire pay slot.

    Are things like this not frustrating to anyone else? I just find the more and more I play, the more and more I question the integrity of what DFS is and feeling like Im playing russian roulette even attempting to find the golden bullet.

  • WidumBoise

    90% of the game is half mental.

  • jokerswild22

    @bozzburg said...

    Time and time again however, I am watching the same people not only win GPP’s but have 30% of the payouts with their lineups hogging up the entire pay slot.

    The same people are winning GPP’s but it’s 99% luck?

  • chronoxiong

    NBA all season has been luck. Those who win GPPs have been lucky. I wish I can get lucky and things go my way for one fricken night so I can win a GPP and retire from this bullshit. This season has given me nothing but troll jobs each in and night out. I have been so frustrated as I was never this frustrated before. You never know when a player is going to bust, be in foul trouble, get no mins or usage, or get ejected. Each one (or two) of those have consistently been happening to me and it just sucks. You can’t predict that shit when making a lineup through a lineup builder. How do the sharks predict that shit in their algorithm lineups too? I feel like those of us who try to make lineups with our brains and extensive research will never win anymore. I lost hope especially when I keep seeing the same names on top. I want to be that guy too. :(

  • depalma13

    @chronoxiong said...

    How do the sharks predict that shit in their algorithm lineups too?

    They don’t. They just team up to cover the outcomes and split the winnings.

  • yountingly

    • 321

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #52

      RG Tiered Ranking

    While you need luck to win a gpp, I don’t believe it is overall mostly luck at all. There is a lot of skill and knowledge involved. OF course, the pros have an advantage with multi entering, etc but that is why I mostly play single entry, 3 entry max while usually throwing at least 1-2 in large fields.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    @chronoxiong said...

    NBA all season has been luck. Those who win GPPs have been lucky. I wish I can get lucky and things go my way for one fricken night so I can win a GPP and retire from this bullshit. This season has given me nothing but troll jobs each in and night out. I have been so frustrated as I was never this frustrated before. You never know when a player is going to bust, be in foul trouble, get no mins or usage, or get ejected. Each one (or two) of those have consistently been happening to me and it just sucks. You can’t predict that shit when making a lineup through a lineup builder. How do the sharks predict that shit in their algorithm lineups too? I feel like those of us who try to make lineups with our brains and extensive research will never win anymore. I lost hope especially when I keep seeing the same names on top. I want to be that guy too. :(

    Well, your positive attitude is clearly moving you in the right direction!

  • madmanjayWV

    The thing is — if one doesn’t have much skill, one is not likely to get very lucky.

  • superstars92

    • 116

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #80

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @bozzburg said...

    Long time (Losing) player here. For as long as I have been playing I have just come to the conclusion that DFS is 99% luck and 1% skill.

    Actually the irony with this statement is that if something is 99% luck and 1% skill, over the long run, it becomes 99.9999999% skill, 0.00000001% luck because luck has 0 EV over the long run but skill isn’t 0 EV. Unless you believe someone is inherently more lucky than someone else, my statement is true, but of course, if you do believe someone can be inherently more lucky than someone else, then my statement doesn’t hold.

  • joe2dwight

    • 488

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #17

      RG Tiered Ranking

    I think it’s luck in terms of where you land in a GPP but overall it takes skill to allow for luck to put you over the top. I’ve only cashed big on 2 GPPs in NBA this year and both times I had good teams but it was a bit lucky for me to end up in the top 5. In one case a chalky TJ Warren was ejected (I didnt have him) early and it opened the door and the other the Sixers decided to let Embiid go beast mode and drop 90 fpts.

  • celtics2448

    There’s definitely a bit of both skill and luck, but judging by your own admission that the same people are always winning GPPs you would have to admit that more than 1% of it is skill. Obviously you aren’t out there shooting baskets and grabbing boards so in reality you have no control over the outcome, so in that way it’s obviously a game of chance, but the skill aspect is monumental in regards to contest selection, player selection, distribution of player exposure (assuming you’re multi entering), game stacking etc. etc. The guys winning “every night” aren’t picking players at random and winning, they are using their skills to get there time and time again and it is frustrating, so perhaps it’s time to move to the single entry or 3 entry max contests where the playing field is a lot more level and there is a lot more “skill” involved in getting to the top of the leader board albeit smaller prizes.

  • bozzburg

    Luck is luck and skill is skill. Let me tell you what I see consistently:

    ME entry contests maxed out- This just seems to me mearly coring 1 LU and playing as close to every combination possible as you can within the entries and more or less buying the pool. To me this is no different then playing lotto numbers.

    Access to more information than others- Countless names come up and most (Not ALL) either criss cross LU’s between platforms because they work for competing companies. To be honest, this is the worst because if a DK employee is playing on FD and vice versa, they have a HUGE leg up when it comes to ownership percentages. Maybe not to exact numbers but pretty darn close.

    Ultimately, the expectation is I don’t expect to win every night or all the time, but clearly the “majority” is missing something. I love playing DFS! But I am at the point where I am trying to decide if the “fun” is sustainable to consistenty lose money. Lets face it, we all wanna make money but long and hard research shows that the people who win these tourneys time and time again have access to tools the general public clearly does not have.

    To me “skill” is defined as picking a SE LU and winning. Granted there is still some factor of luck that plays into it.

    The big question remains to me that a long and arduous journey was fought to make DFS what it is today and that arguement has always been that DFS is almost primarily based on skill.

    Jordan Bell was injured in the 1st quarter last night. He was something like 50%+ drafted in a few of the tourneys I was in on DK last night. So one can say that the other 50% of people who did not have him in their LU was skillful in not choosing him?

    Or a player is projected to put up 45 FP’s and ends up being drafted at less than 10% and throws a stinker supposedly constituting value and doesn’t perform.

    Or a player who has an average of 50 FP’s and is going to be a high drafted player day in and day out, plays against a terrible defense and throws a stinker for no obvious reason other than a bad day.

    Sort of like a roulette wheel that spins and there are only 2 numbers it can land on, 32 and 15. When you pick 32 it lands on 15 and when you pick 15 it lands on 32. Seems to me a big crapshoot. Or is there skill rolling dice??

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    It takes luck to take down a big prize, but there is skill involved that allows some players to be consistent and put henselves in the best position to succeed each night.

    I also think that whenever this topic comes up there is a disconnect, because for a losing player that does not have that “skill” it is always going to appear to be luck because they simply don’t process the information in that manner. If they were able to see the skill involved, they likely wouldn’t be a losing player( or at least losing as much). So this just ends up running around in circles.
    And I don’t mean that to sound disrespectful, because that’s describing the majority of people. Heck, it’s how I feel if I’m going through a rough stretch, nothing seems to make sense and you start blaming other factors.

  • Scumpunch

    • 671

      RG Overall Ranking

    @bozzburg said...

    To be honest, this is the worst because if a DK employee is playing on FD and vice versa, they have a HUGE leg up when it comes to ownership percentages. Maybe not to exact numbers but pretty darn close.

    This hasn’t been allowed for over 2 years.

  • Unico10

    • 498

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #75

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Scumpunch said...

    This hasn’t been allowed for over 2 years.

    Hate to be “that guy”…. but is “as far as we know”

    Until we get rid of usernames and we put real names on our DK entries, there is always going to be a gray area.

  • txdave41

    @celtics2448 said...

    There’s definitely a bit of both skill and luck, but judging by your own admission that the same people are always winning GPPs you would have to admit that more than 1% of it is skill. Obviously you aren’t out there shooting baskets and grabbing boards so in reality you have no control over the outcome, so in that way it’s obviously a game of chance, but the skill aspect is monumental in regards to contest selection, player selection, distribution of player exposure (assuming you’re multi entering), game stacking etc. etc. The guys winning “every night” aren’t picking players at random and winning, they are using their skills to get there time and time again and it is frustrating, so perhaps it’s time to move to the single entry or 3 entry max contests where the playing field is a lot more level and there is a lot more “skill” involved in getting to the top of the leader board albeit smaller prizes.

    I think the bottom line is DFS is just not for low stacks players anymore. I can’t even afford $5 a night anymore at the rate I’m losing. So I started playing the quarter games. But even if I managed a good lineup that scores well over 300, I barely win a buck or two. A small gain that can easily be erased the next night.

    I lose 90% of the time while usually getting 70-80% of my lineup correctly. But it’s that 1-2 guys who put up stinkers that kill me. The other night Ersan gave me 12 pts and even though every other player hit 5X or higher, I couldn’t cash. Sharks that can run hundreds of lineups probably have plenty that fail for the same reasons, but the others rise to the top the same night.

    If you are only throwing a buck or two at DFS every night, the odds are highly likely that you will just end up donating money. Slate size doesn’t matter either. Even with 100 man tourneys, some jerk will always get it right. Now that really baffles me.

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    I think a lot of people are confusing luck and variance. This is especially true if you are playing large field, top heavy GPP’s. Don’t get me wrong, on any given night, you need luck to finish in top 0.0001% of a GPP.

    But let’s say you play 1 entry in a 50,000 player contest every night. If everyone was equal, you should win that contest 1 out of every 50,000 times (that would take over 130 years assuming you could even play every night).

    OK so how about top 10 finish? All things being equal, you should finish in the top 10 in that GPP 1 out of every 5000 tries (once every 13 years).

    So let’s say you are an above average player and you are long term +EV in this contest. So maybe you should win this contest 1 out of every 40,000 tries…..or even 1 out of every 30,000 tries… you get my point. You may not ever realize that expectation.

    This is where luck comes in. It’s also why a lot of pros put in 150 lineups per night. If they feel they are still +EV across those collective lineups, they are trying to lower their variance. They will realize their expected value in these large field top heavy contests much sooner.

    It’s why I would suggest if you are only playing 1-2 lineups per night in GPP’s, put them in the single entry or 3 max entry contests. If you play enough, skill will ultimately win and end up profitable long term. Just my opinion.

  • celtics2448

    I get the frustration, I was there and I’ve probably posted on her bitching about the sharks on multiple occasions among other things. I admittedly was sold on DFS during the ad blitz because I’m a hardcore NASCAR fan and felt I could jump right in and win crazy money because I am so knowledgeable and keep up with the “sport” more than 99.5% of their fanbase. NASCAR DFS is a perfect example of the luck aspect, a driver could be a very obvious play and blow a transmission or get in Danica Patrick’s way (not a problem this year thank God) and your lineup is screwed, the only real way to avoid those situations is to multi enter aka spend more money. The same applies to big gpps in other sports to a less intense degree, if you multi enter you need to balance risk and consistency, and you need to be aware that others are spending tons of money on these large prize GPPs that will have way better odds than you. If you’re cold like I am right now, it’s better to go small until you get your groove back. Play single entries, gun for the $500 for $2 or $3 instead of $50000 at $8. I’ve been much, much more successful overall playing the tourneys with a smaller max entries. If you feel good about your lineup put it in a big tourney but don’t blow your money on them especially because of the 150 entry guys and the shitty payout structure

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    I’ve switched to mostly single entry tournaments myself. If you cannot afford to max enter than to me, don’t play. Sure, throw in a dart throw lineup once in awhile, who knows, it may hit, but I wouldn’t be trying to increase bankroll by playing the large multi-entry GPP’s unless you are VERY good.

    That’s the biggest problem I think with the average player. They are gunning to win 100k when they instead, should be thrilled to win $500 in a smaller contest. If you are still consistently losing in single entries, well then, there really is nobody else to blame.

  • superstars92

    • 116

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #80

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @bozzburg said...

    Sort of like a roulette wheel that spins and there are only 2 numbers it can land on, 32 and 15. When you pick 32 it lands on 15 and when you pick 15 it lands on 32. Seems to me a big crapshoot. Or is there skill rolling dice??

    Difference is roulette is 100% luck 0% skill.
    DFS, even if it’s, 99% luck 1% skill is a huge difference.

    You don’t realize how big that 1% difference is in the long run.

  • makeitra1n

    @Stewburtx8 said...

    I think a lot of people are confusing luck and variance. This is especially true if you are playing large field, top heavy GPP’s. Don’t get me wrong, on any given night, you need luck to finish in top 0.0001% of a GPP.

    But let’s say you play 1 entry in a 50,000 player contest every night. If everyone was equal, you should win that contest 1 out of every 50,000 times (that would take over 130 years assuming you could even play every night).

    OK so how about top 10 finish? All things being equal, you should finish in the top 10 in that GPP 1 out of every 5000 tries (once every 13 years).

    So let’s say you are an above average player and you are long term +EV in this contest. So maybe you should win this contest 1 out of every 40,000 tries…..or even 1 out of every 30,000 tries… you get my point. You may not ever realize that expectation.

    This is where luck comes in. It’s also why a lot of pros put in 150 lineups per night. If they feel they are still +EV across those collective lineups, they are trying to lower their variance. They will realize their expected value in these large field top heavy contests much sooner.

    It’s why I would suggest if you are only playing 1-2 lineups per night in GPP’s, put them in the single entry or 3 max entry contests. If you play enough, skill will ultimately win and end up profitable long term. Just my opinion.

    +1

    And also 50,000 divided by 150 is a lot less than 130 years lol.max entering is all about realizing your true skill faster than if you had made only a few entries.

    Just because someone max enters doesn’t mean they are turning profits or guaranteed anything.i think people forget about that

  • Stewburtx8

    • 2012 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @bhdevault said...

    I’ve switched to mostly single entry tournaments myself. If you cannot afford to max enter than to me, don’t play. Sure, throw in a dart throw lineup once in awhile, who knows, it may hit, but I wouldn’t be trying to increase bankroll by playing the large multi-entry GPP’s unless you are VERY good.

    That’s the biggest problem I think with the average player. They are gunning to win 100k when they instead, should be thrilled to win $500 in a smaller contest. If you are still consistently losing in single entries, well then, there really is nobody else to blame.

    In the NBA, I’ve switched completely to this strategy. I play 1-2 entries per night maximum. I enter either the $12 or $40 single entry contest every night. If I really want to play 2 lineups, I’ll sometimes play both. Now I do often then throw that lineup in the $8-10 contest in case it’s the nuts and worth $50k. But I’ve now limited myself to spending $20-48 most nights in NBA and I’ve been much more successful playing one lineup focusing on the single entry GPP’s.

    Even in the NFL, I started playing the $100-150 single entry or 3 max contests. Results were more mixed there.

  • emnj69

    @bozzburg said...

    Long time (Losing) player here. For as long as I have been playing I have just come to the conclusion that DFS is 99% luck and 1% skill.

    Regardless of the research done one never knows when a low percentage draft is going to pop off.

    I am either ahead of the curve in a slate only to find myself tumbling downward near the end or so far back with late starting players in a slate that I can never break into the green.

    Time and time again however, I am watching the same people not only win GPP’s but have 30% of the payouts with their lineups hogging up the entire pay slot.

    Are things like this not frustrating to anyone else? I just find the more and more I play, the more and more I question the integrity of what DFS is and feeling like Im playing russian roulette even attempting to find the golden bullet.

    it is frustrating for sure-in gpps you are going into a fight with both hands tied behind your back-single entries are the smart play for most folks. I am not impressed by folks that win with mass entries if you put in thousands of teams you should win-but to the sharks credit they are willing to risk big money each week which is not something I would be comfortable doing

  • bozzburg

    Include ““analysts”“ as well. Still technically employees be it indirectly. 100% credibility was lost 2 years ago from that stunt that happened. Which means that was going on prior to that. Tons of gray area.

    I was a semi-pro horse racing handicapper. I stopped playing that because of similar nuances I see happening in DFS. Unexplainable success.
    I would watch horses be walking into the gate at 13-1. No more than 5 seconds after the gate would open the price dropped all the way down to 5-1. Wire to wire. Then not too long after that started happening it was found that people found ways to bet AFTER the race was half over.

    The point I am trying to make is, anywhere there is money and BIG MONEY in any gambling arena, people will find ways to gain that edge over people not in the know.

  • madmanjayWV

    @bhdevault said...

    I’ve switched to mostly single entry tournaments myself. If you cannot afford to max enter than to me, don’t play. Sure, throw in a dart throw lineup once in awhile, who knows, it may hit, but I wouldn’t be trying to increase bankroll by playing the large multi-entry GPP’s unless you are VERY good.

    That’s the biggest problem I think with the average player. They are gunning to win 100k when they instead, should be thrilled to win $500 in a smaller contest. If you are still consistently losing in single entries, well then, there really is nobody else to blame.

    I’d be thrilled if FD would quit having 120K entries in the quarter GPP that pays out freaking $400 — utter joke..it’s truly sad IMO

    Great stuff in the thread BTW —-

    I rarely play cash games so I’m not concerned one iota about increasing my bankroll..that will come with an elite 99 to 99.5% finish or higher in a GPP —- then I’ll take out the profit leave a little in and maybe up the stakes a little bit as well.

    I enjoy playing against 150 max entries b/c I don’t care how many entries you got — only ONE LU takes down the TOP PRIZE — and albeit someone entering 150 at $0.25 or $1 or higher stakes has a “better shot” — I don’t have any1 to blame but myself if I don’t put together the perfect or near perfect LU.

    To be honest, since RG made the move here to change the tracking of things, I don’t even hardly ever bother to enter a GPP that is not at least a $5K prize pool.

    With that being said, at least on FD, to me — no matter the sport — the best contest to enter is the $2 single entry without question.

    I grind away at small stakes now just like I did when I got into this —- well, I guess it’s been — will be 8 years now I think come MLB season….

    The ups and downs are brutal — but trying to be consistent and smart with whatever bankroll you got is the key….and lady luck never hurts – As it is…my best hits aside from back in the CFB days have been in the $2 S-E GPPs……

    Having to pay taxes on my profit every other year or so is what it is — at least when I gotta claim that extra income..I know my GPP season was SKILL/LUCK based :)

    HAPPY GRINDING LADIES!

  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    @bozzburg said...

    Long time (Losing) player here. For as long as I have been playing I have just come to the conclusion that DFS is 99% luck and 1% skill.

    Regardless of the research done one never knows when a low percentage draft is going to pop off.

    I am either ahead of the curve in a slate only to find myself tumbling downward near the end or so far back with late starting players in a slate that I can never break into the green.

    Time and time again however, I am watching the same people not only win GPP’s but have 30% of the payouts with their lineups hogging up the entire pay slot.

    Are things like this not frustrating to anyone else? I just find the more and more I play, the more and more I question the integrity of what DFS is and feeling like Im playing russian roulette even attempting to find the golden bullet.

    “Time and time again however, I am watching the same people not only win GPP’s but have 30% of the payouts with their lineups hogging up the entire pay slot.”

    At least this makes any fucking sense considering you said it’s 99% luck.

    ^^ What I picture you probably look like.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Use our links to sign up and deposit on sites listed in this thread to get these bonuses:

  • FanDuel

    Get 1-month of RotoGrinders Premium for FREE (a ~$40value) by signing up through one of our links!

    Learn More
  • DraftKings

    Sign up for DraftKings using a RotoGrinders link & receive our DraftKings Premium content FREE for 1 month. That’s a ~$40 value! No DraftKings promo code necessary!

    Learn More
  • FantasyDraft

    FantasyDraft strives to put players first, with a mission to “provide a fun and fair experience for all.” To this end, the site has a well-built, easy-to-use interface and a the first of its kind in offering “Rake-Free” fantasy contests.

    Learn More

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler