MAIN FORUM

Comments

  • bozzburg

    Long time (Losing) player here. For as long as I have been playing I have just come to the conclusion that DFS is 99% luck and 1% skill.

    Regardless of the research done one never knows when a low percentage draft is going to pop off.

    I am either ahead of the curve in a slate only to find myself tumbling downward near the end or so far back with late starting players in a slate that I can never break into the green.

    Time and time again however, I am watching the same people not only win GPP’s but have 30% of the payouts with their lineups hogging up the entire pay slot.

    Are things like this not frustrating to anyone else? I just find the more and more I play, the more and more I question the integrity of what DFS is and feeling like Im playing russian roulette even attempting to find the golden bullet.

  • elving188

    • Blogger of the Month

    You ever seen Liar Liar? You’re Jim Carrey.

    “You know what I’m gonna do about this?”

    “What?”

    “Nothing. So what I’m gonna do is piss and moan like an impotent jerk and then BEND OVER AND TAKE IT UP THE TAIL PIPE.”

    I left out a bit but you get it lol

  • KlairVoyant

    • 324

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #62

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Blogger of the Month

    Does this look like luck to you……?

    This is a graph and some data from just this NBA season so far:

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vnKUihK6QI6hHkxyBovyPf247h_LE_jF0me8pei8_n4/edit?usp=sharing

    let’s just say DFS is more than just 1% skill and 99% luck!

  • detroittigers44

    I’ve posted this a few times on a bunch of these same threads… DFS is all about what YOU want to get out of it… Are you okay playing $100 a week and potentially just donating it for the sake of watching and enjoying the games? Are you trying to make a living doing it? Are you trying to build a bankroll? Etc…. These people that come on here and tell us its all luck are likely entering HUGE field tourney’s and expecting to take one down… Its just really hard to do, even if you are truly a skilled player. I’ve tried something new with NBA and its been working great for me… Now, great in my perspective is that I have build a bankroll of a little over $1,000 on DK so far, which I won’t complain about.. I typically play around $30-40 a night, $15 is typically head to heads and a couple double ups… I rarely if ever play in a tourney with more than 500 entries… I will play the $2 Layups, or the $3 smaller tourneys… In addition to that, I will throw 3-lineups in smaller Winner Take All tournaments… Play a 10 man $3 Winner Take All, you will find its not really all that hard to win one of those things, trust me… The cash games give me a pretty good base of money coming back in… I rarely if ever don’t get $15 coming back to me… Yes, I am capped on how much I can win, but the last couple weeks I’ve been consistently cashing $60-70 a day, which can build that bankroll up pretty quick.

    Just my two cents… I will tell you one thing, I certainly haven’t enjoyed it any less, much the contrary… Coming from a person that used to chase the huge field tournaments too, its exciting playing for a huge prize… But if that prize is largely unattainable, change the way you play. I just took $500 out of my account to contribute to a vacation, I’m not complaining…

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    @detroittigers44 said...

    I’ve posted this a few times on a bunch of these same threads… DFS is all about what YOU want to get out of it… Are you okay playing $100 a week and potentially just donating it for the sake of watching and enjoying the games? Are you trying to make a living doing it? Are you trying to build a bankroll? Etc…. These people that come on here and tell us its all luck are likely entering HUGE field tourney’s and expecting to take one down… Its just really hard to do, even if you are truly a skilled player. I’ve tried something new with NBA and its been working great for me… Now, great in my perspective is that I have build a bankroll of a little over $1,000 on DK so far, which I won’t complain about.. I typically play around $30-40 a night, $15 is typically head to heads and a couple double ups… I rarely if ever play in a tourney with more than 500 entries… I will play the $2 Layups, or the $3 smaller tourneys… In addition to that, I will throw 3-lineups in smaller Winner Take All tournaments… Play a 10 man $3 Winner Take All, you will find its not really all that hard to win one of those things, trust me… The cash games give me a pretty good base of money coming back in… I rarely if ever don’t get $15 coming back to me… Yes, I am capped on how much I can win, but the last couple weeks I’ve been consistently cashing $60-70 a day, which can build that bankroll up pretty quick.

    Just my two cents… I will tell you one thing, I certainly haven’t enjoyed it any less, much the contrary… Coming from a person that used to chase the huge field tournaments too, its exciting playing for a huge prize… But if that prize is largely unattainable, change the way you play. I just took $500 out of my account to contribute to a vacation, I’m not complaining…

    This guy is spot on. Great post.

  • Numberboy

    @bozzburg said...

    Long time (Losing) player here. For as long as I have been playing I have just come to the conclusion that DFS is 99% luck and 1% skill.

    Regardless of the research done one never knows when a low percentage draft is going to pop off.

    I am either ahead of the curve in a slate only to find myself tumbling downward near the end or so far back with late starting players in a slate that I can never break into the green.

    Time and time again however, I am watching the same people not only win GPP’s but have 30% of the payouts with their lineups hogging up the entire pay slot.

    Are things like this not frustrating to anyone else? I just find the more and more I play, the more and more I question the integrity of what DFS is and feeling like Im playing russian roulette even attempting to find the golden bullet.

    There are a lot of variables to consider when trying to assess what % of DFS results can be attributed to Luck vs Skill. The prize pool structure in GPP’S would lend itself to incredibly high variance ( Top 1 % receives about 90% of the prize $). While head to heads and cash would typically have lower variance. That being said some pros ( very few) do beat DFS consistently. But regardless I’d ask you “ Are your results getting better?” “ What process do you use to determine your selections?” “And how do you make sure your entries accurately reflect your projections?” “ Do you use a math model?” Have you reverse engineered winning lineups from the prior night & incorporated that logic into your process ?

  • Numberboy

    @KlairVoyant said...

    Does this look like luck to you……?

    This is a graph and some data from just this NBA season so far:

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vnKUihK6QI6hHkxyBovyPf247h_LE_jF0me8pei8_n4/edit?usp=sharing

    let’s just say DFS is more than just 1% skill and 99% luck!

    I play poker everyday for a living and was recently asked if Poker or DFS had more luck involved in the outcome. Its not even close….DFS while beatable by the very best requires a ton more luck. Especially in the GPP format

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    DFS success is mostly driven by luck in the short run (e.g. a single contest) but clearly requires skill in the long run.

    I don’t think it’s fair to say that no amateurs can compete with the sharks and win anymore. I realize my experience is a small data point, but I like to believe that my 28% net ROI over 1000+ low-entry ($1-3) contests —- with my biggest win being $25 —- is a sign of skill. :-)

  • emnj69

    the nights I have taken down gpps including a big one-it was due to my mad skills-the nights that I did really bad it was always due to bad luck lol

  • dtrain187

    It’s certainly a combination of skill and luck, with it leaning more toward luck for GPP’s, and skill for cash games. Problem is it’s really difficult for us little guys to compete with the max entering sharks (as well as some pros colluding…you all know what I’m talking about), with bottomless bank rolls. That’s not to mention the rake that seems to always be climbing higher and the lineup sellers.

    I’m still up about $4K or so since I first started playing DFS 3 years ago, however I have all but stopped recently, as it’s just not worth my time anymore. I still like to throw some GPP darts in every now and then if I think I have time to research a slate, but the current DFS environment just isn’t very appealing anymore.

  • TeamTwerk

    It takes a lot of skill imo to put in lineups that are live to win the huge field contests. There are certain players that, while often consistent, have close to zero upside yet people continue to play these guys. So many lineups are basically dead to first place before tip off.

  • dandcglenn

    Single line up guy here.
    There is certainly more than luck involved, even though luck or variance plays a pretty big part.
    Just anecdotal evidence, a a single LU player, it seems that when I cash my double or triple ups, I’m also at least min cashing the GPPs, regardless of size. For that reason I have a hard time giving up my dart throw.
    I don’t have any hard info that breaks down cash lines for cash vs tournaments.

  • sasmallen

    • 237

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #26

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @bozzburg said...

    ME entry contests maxed out- This just seems to me mearly coring 1 LU and playing as close to every combination possible as you can within the entries and more or less buying the pool. To me this is no different then playing lotto numbers.

    Many (most?) of DK’s GPPs are 20 entries max now so I don’t see how anybody could “buy the pool”…

    Simple math shows It’s not even close to possible with even 150 entries.

  • jtgus

    Skill or Luck – BOTH

    I won a ticket to an NHL game on Fantasy Draft two days ago and it played last night. I’ve never played hockey dfs. I finished 41st out of 370 people and in the money. I picked players based on cost and projected points that were listed on Fantasy Draft.

    Absolute Luck

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Use our links to sign up and deposit on sites listed in this thread to get these bonuses:

  • FanDuel

    Get 1-month of RotoGrinders Premium for FREE (a ~$40value) by signing up through one of our links!

    Learn More
  • DraftKings

    Sign up for DraftKings using a RotoGrinders link & receive our DraftKings Premium content FREE for 1 month. That’s a ~$40 value! No DraftKings promo code necessary!

    Learn More
  • FantasyDraft

    FantasyDraft strives to put players first, with a mission to “provide a fun and fair experience for all.” To this end, the site has a well-built, easy-to-use interface and a the first of its kind in offering “Rake-Free” fantasy contests.

    Learn More

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler