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  • jmm92

    So I been thinking how to compose a thoughtful , respectful and well written forum post on this issue for a while now.

    Disclaimer; I am a premium member … I love RG , I rock the RG tags proudly. I recommend RG to everyone in at least half a dozen Facebook groups I am in and I do it often. I know there is real work of value being done here and for $40 a month is a great value. And anything you read below that you interpret as being disrespectful, unappreciative or disingenuous, then YOU are misunderstanding my point and you need to go back and reread it.

    With that said ….

    THERE IS A SPECIAL PLACE IN HELL FOR PEOPLE WHO TOUT THINGS THAT ARE NOT BEATABLE. Like sports betting !! (horse racing and casino games included) Where I come from sports touts are NOT looked upon very favorable. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A WINNING SPORTS BETTOR. THEY DO NOT EXIST.

    It all started last year with the Warren Sharp articles. Warren Sharp isnt beating anything. He is not now, nor every been a winning sports bettor. There is no proof ANYWHERE that ‘following line movements’ can turn a NEG EV situation into a POSITIVE EV situation. Yet I seen winning RG hosts that I totally respect as winning dfs players, totally sing his praises. It was gross and an embarrassment. The only thing Warren Sharp beats is the people he manages to con that sign up for his ‘service’.

    Now this year, RG has gone completely crazy offering or touting sports betting advice. And whether its said or unsaid , RG presents there respected DFS analysts as winning sports bettors and they are not. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A WINNING SPORTS BETTOR. THEY DO NOT EXIST. And maybe RG doesn’t present them as winning sports bettors , but RG certainly doesn’t say or do anything stating that they are not.

    Until someone can figure out how to beat the 11 to win 10 part of the sport betting equation there will never be A LIFETIME or CAREER WINNING SPORTS BETTOR. There is no one in the history of time, that has picked 54% or 55 % winners over a X(amount of years) period of time, that it would require to become a A LIFETIME or CAREER WINNING SPORTS BETTOR.

    NO SYSTEM, NO AMOUNT OF MONEY MANAGEMENT or NO SELF CONTROL can change a NEG EV situation into a POSITIVE EV situation.

    Look , I know , sports betting is about to become the next big thing … and I know people are willing to pay for this type of advice , and most people are not looking to quit there day job and become professional sports bettors … and most are just looking for some help with wagers they are going to make anyways …

    But when ( to a lesser degree ) your representing these touts as professionals, and that ( to a greater degree ) sports betting can be a winning thing or a viable option , ( see were doing it, kinda thing ) , that is a fraud. That is fraudulent.

    So I wonder out loud , RG do you really want to be apart of something you know is a losing proposition anyways ? Sports touting is a dirty , ugly and SOUL LESS business .. yuck.

    Jason

    PS. I realize this might not be a popular position I am taking. So dont kick me out please.

  • yisman

    I believe you’re referring to the most well-known NBA bettor of all time.

    https://twitter.com/haralabob

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haralabos_Voulgaris

    He currently works for the Dallas Mavericks.

  • jmm92

    @yisman said...

    Some more links, if you weren’t convinced by covers.

    These contests use live lines from major sportsbooks.

    https://contests.sportsbookreview.com/all-sports-contest-2017-contest-10406/
    https://contests.sportsbookreview.com/all-sports-contest-2016-contest-5596/
    https://contests.sportsbookreview.com/2012-year-long-contest-3272/

    If you look at the standings, you’ll see that most people finish in the red (negative units). That’s how it is betting against -110/-110 lines.

    in theory yea … but that is not exactly correct … your assuming you actually get those lines … alot of these contest lines you get on Tuesday arent the lines your wager on at by Saturday or Sunday …. you have no pressure of actually winning or losing any money … your not paying any bills … you have no human element in this .. i would be more impressed if you were creating your own power ratings …. and had a formula to show me …

  • jmm92

    @yisman said...

    I believe you’re referring to the most well-known NBA bettor of all time.

    https://twitter.com/haralabob

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haralabos_Voulgaris

    He currently works for the Dallas Mavericks.

    yes him !!! and he works for the mavs cause they figured out his advantage …

  • yisman

    @jmm92 said...

    in theory yea … but that is not exactly correct … your assuming you actually g

    These are live lines, meaning when the picks were made, the lines were available at whatever sportsbook they draw the lines from. I do not work for the site in question, nor do I work for covers, so I can’t tell you which book they were/are using.

    You want screenshots of my sportsbook history?

    I don’t know what power ratings has to do with it. There’s more than one way to skin a cat. Your claim was that no one wins.

  • jtkucheck

    @yisman said...

    I believe you’re referring to the most well-known NBA bettor of all time.

    https://twitter.com/haralabob

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haralabos_Voulgaris

    He currently works for the Dallas Mavericks.

    Jumped on this thread to say something similar about Haralbob as the most obvious counter-argument to the “it’s impossible to be a +EV bettor” statement.

    What is probably true is that there are so few people that are actually profitable bettors, and they are generally not looking to share their edge, that paying someone else for gambling advice is even dumber than gambling on your own (you will lose at the same rate as the -EV bettor you subscribe to, and you will also accelerate your losses with whatever subscription fee you pay).

  • yisman

    @jmm92 said...

    yes him !!! and he works for the mavs cause they figured out his advantage …

    He works for the Mavericks because Mark Cuban was impressed by what he did over the years so he wanted to hire him.

    Just like many MLB teams employ statisticians to give them an edge in scouting players, etc.

  • yisman

    @jtkucheck said...

    Jumped on this thread to say something similar about Haralbob as the most obvious counter-argument to the “it’s impossible to be a +EV bettor” statement.

    What is probably true is that there are so few people that are actually profitable bettors, and they are generally not looking to share their edge, that paying someone else for gambling advice is even dumber than gambling on your own (you will lose at the same rate as the -EV bettor you subscribe to, and you will also accelerate your losses with whatever subscription fee you pay).

    Just to reiterate what you said, as a general statement, people who actually win are not out there selling picks. People who are winning have identified an edge, or many edges, and selling their picks would be counter-productive.

    However, RAS (short for Right Angle Sports) is a proven winner in college basketball totals, so much so that books slashed the limits on college basketball totals.

    RAS sells picks, but there’s not much use in buying them as the lines move almost immediately when he releases a pick.

  • jmm92

    @yisman said...

    He works for the Mavericks because Mark Cuban was impressed by what he did over the years so he wanted to hire him.

    Just like many MLB teams employ statisticians to give them an edge in scouting players, etc.

    i stand correct again …. do you know why he no longer makes winning 4th quarter team total wagers at a very large rate ? he no longer has this advantage …

  • jmm92

    and if there was “other” advantages to be found … dont you think he would be making wagers accordingly ?

  • yisman

    @jmm92 said...

    i stand correct again …. do you know why he no longer makes winning 4th quarter team total wagers at a very large rate ? he no longer has this advantage …

    I do not know him personally and I can’t tell you whether he still gambles or not, but I would imagine this edge no longer exists.

    The edge was publicized over the years and now the books adjust for it.

    He never sold picks because he wanted to take advantage of this opportunity as long as he could.

    As with everything else, the existing edge goes away and you have to adapt and find new angles.

  • jtkucheck

    @yisman said...

    Just to reiterate what you said, as a general statement, people who actually win are not out there selling picks. People who are winning have identified an edge, or many edges, and selling their picks would be counter-productive.

    In theory if you had a large enough subscriber base you knew all placed action at the same book, you could tout the opposite side and get yourself a better line or price. I doubt anyone that successful as a tout is actually gambling much money though.

  • yisman

    @jtkucheck said...

    In theory if you had a large enough subscriber base you knew all placed action at the same book, you could tout the opposite side and get yourself a better line or price. I doubt anyone that successful as a tout is actually gambling much money though.

    This has been done. The most famous example is a tout who has used various names over the years. “John Morrison” and “Tony Chau” are two I’m aware of.

    He got customers to sign up to a certain offshore book using his referral link, and the book profiled those users accordingly and gave them worse lines on the stuff he touted.

    Very shady. There are many threads on the Internet created by people who discovered what was going on, but here’s one if you’re curious: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=9&sub=100419158

  • jmm92

    Well Yisman it was nice talking with you , you are very knowledgeable … I do think your over estimating the number of successful sports handicapper there are in the world … but other than that it was a pleasure to talk to you … Jason

  • jtkucheck

    @yisman said...

    This has been done. The most famous example is a tout who has used various names over the years. “John Morrison” and “Tony Chau” are two I’m aware of.

    He got customers to sign up to a certain offshore book using his referral link, and the book profiled those users accordingly and gave them worse lines on the stuff he touted.

    Very shady. There are many threads on the Internet created by people who discovered what was going on, but here’s one if you’re curious: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=9&sub=100419158

    Damn, that’s crazy.

  • yisman

    @jtkucheck said...

    Damn, that’s crazy.

    While we’re on the subject, another famous tout trick was “call 1800-XXX-XXXX for a FREE PICK on tonight’s game. We have identified a side with a high probability of winning, blah blah blah”.

    They then give half the callers one side and half the callers the other side.

    The half that won, they call back and say “you see, we told we had a lock. It came through! Now sign up with us as we have other locks coming up in the next few days.”

  • jmm92

    what about jim feist ? he would buy 95% of all the entries into the stardust 25k single entry ,single loss, and your out, sports handicapping tourney … he did this for years , just to say he was the champ …. atleast he paid for score phone

  • jtkucheck

    @yisman said...

    While we’re on the subject, another famous tout trick was “call 1800-XXX-XXXX for a FREE PICK on tonight’s game. We have identified a side with a high probability of winning, blah blah blah”.

    They then give half the callers one side and half the callers the other side.

    The half that won, they call back and say “you see, we told we had a lock. It came through! Now sign up with us as we have other locks coming up in the next few days.”

    How do people actually fall for stuff like this? At least there’s some nuance to what I was suggesting, this is just dumb.

    “This next coin flip will be tails, it’s a lock! See, it was tails! Pay me money!”

    Dumb.

  • jmm92

    @jtkucheck said...

    How do people actually fall for stuff like this? At least there’s some nuance to what I was suggesting, this is just dumb.

    “This next coin flip will be tails, it’s a lock! See, it was tails! Pay me money!”

    Dumb.

    Because people want to believe ….

    Even yisman wants you to believe …

    He want to show you his contest winning % and the theoretical units won … when these contest lines have no bearing in real life wagering

    He want to tell you there are 4 regulars at the back of every sports book drink beer making a living – “the regulars”

    He wants to show you the action of one BAD sports book management company as proof people are winning players – when pinnacle sports , the largest bookies in the world , creates the lines , takes the earliest action , charges the lowest rake , and takes the largest action and doesn’t Barr anyone

    He wants to say the rake is higher in your GPP today then the rake in at the sports book so there must be more winning sports bettors . When if fact the difference is , in GPP play , your playing vs other people , and people make mistakes , some large enough to be profitable to you even at a 16% rake … the vegas books , never make a mistake and if they do , its very small and very fleeting .. imagine if every player in your gpp tonight was awesemo or papagates.

    There is not 4 lifetime winning sports bettors in the USA … if there was you would see a drastic change in action.

    1st the limits would be lower …
    2nd the days of a .10 line would be long gone …
    3rd You would ‘know’ more professional sports bettor … they would be famous !! Like poker players … like our DFS players

    Yisman is very knowledgeable but he of all people should know better.

    So Yisman can you name 4 professional sports bettors ? I doubt it …

    Dont believe the hype …. Just saying …. Jason

  • jmm92

    and there is only 1 way to become a professional sports bettor … you create your own power ranking … ( your formula , you know like the book makers do ) … you use these power ratings to create your own lines …. you then compare your lines to the books lines …. and if there is big enough difference you make a wager …. this is how its done …. this is the only way …. anything else is just pretending …

  • yisman

    Again, if you read the article I linked, it’s standard practice for books to profile bettors and limit them.

    I don’t want you to believe anything. I have no incentive to convince you that people win at gambling. You obviously have an opinion and are unwilling to change it, no matter what the facts show.

  • jmm92

    @yisman said...

    Again, if you read the article I linked, it’s standard practice for books to profile bettors and limit them.

    I don’t want you to believe anything. I have no incentive to convince you that people win at gambling. You obviously have an opinion and are unwilling to change it, no matter what the facts show.

    it hurts me that you say this … I pride myself on being a person of logic and reason … your facts ring hollow to a lifetime of experience … Jason

  • jojo491048

    Haha, this post is funny. Of course there are winning sports bettors. Most aren’t. But if you can find an edge and exploit it, you can definitely be +EV over the long-term.

    The real question you have to ask yourself is, if someone really is a lifetime +EV sports bettor, why are they offering tout services anyways which would arguably DECREASE their edge and potentially have lines move against them?

    Hint: It’s probably because they aren’t profitable in the long-term.

    The smaller the markets as well, the easier it is to be profitable. Things like that developing world soccer league that no one knows about or e-Sports in particular. There is a reason why limits are often so low on those – it’s because odds makers don’t have much information on those markets and often get lines flat out wrong.

  • jmm92

    @jojo491048 said...

    Haha, this post is funny. Of course there are winning sports bettors. Most aren’t. But if you can find an edge and exploit it, you can definitely be +EV over the long-term.

    The real question you have to ask yourself is, if someone really is a lifetime +EV sports bettor, why are they offering tout services anyways which would arguably DECREASE their edge and potentially have lines move against them?

    Hint: It’s probably because they aren’t profitable in the long-term.

    The smaller the markets as well, the easier it is to be profitable. Things like that developing world soccer league that no one knows about or e-Sports in particular. There is a reason why limits are often so low on those – it’s because odds makers don’t have much information on those markets and often get lines flat out wrong.

    why do you say this …. do you know one ? read about one ? seen one on tv ? went to college with one ? I wish someone just show me one and I would gladly eat my words … SHOW ME PLEASE !!

  • yisman

    @jmm92 said...

    it hurts me that you say this … I pride myself on being a person of logic and reason … your facts ring hollow to a lifetime of experience … Jason

    OK so it’s settled. You are not interested in facts.

    If you truly believe there are no winning sports bettors then there are no winning DFS players either. Compare the rake.

    As for showing you a winning sports bettor, you show me a winning DFS player. You can’t. You could name anyone you’d like and we cannot prove they win long term. I can tell you a number of the guys who won the milly maker spent more than the first prize chasing it over the years. You don’t have access to their financial statements.

    Good day and best of luck.

  • myteamsucks

    @jmm92 said...

    why do you say this …. do you know one ? read about one ? seen one on tv ? went to college with one ? I wish someone just show me one and I would gladly eat my words … SHOW ME PLEASE !!

    Show us the facts proving that there aren’t any winning sports bettors. If you can’t prove it then how much weight should anyone put behind your opinion on the subject? There have been numerous links posted that prove you’re incorrect so you just move the goalposts on your argument. Show us your proof and “pinnacle takes big wagers” isn’t going to cut it.

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