INDUSTRY FORUM

Comments

  • mambaland

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/darrenheitner/2018/02/14/former-investment-darlings-draftkings-and-fanduel-are-struggling-to-grow/#575f34b6269e

  • jmo26

    @tbird05 said...

    As far as ‘making it easier” to win gpp’s with 100k runners…idk about that. Can something truly be “profitable” if you take away more and more skill from the game?

    I don’t like the top heavy first place prize..but isn’t that what attracted the huge wave of customers to begin with? What happens when you take that away?

    Agreed. I don’t think they need to fully remove the top-heavy contests, as they certainly lure in some players through those huge 1st place prizes, but the majority of contests don’t need to be that way (and I think as people start to understand the game, they’re less interested in those lottery-esque GPPs).

  • jmo26

    @tbird05 said...

    I feel like the average joe can’t give it 100% when it comes to monitoring injury news/lineup changes an hour or two before lock. They are coming home from work and have to put dinner on the table for the family. There’s nothing the sites can do to help with that. It’s not their fault…

    I feel like it’s super important to be able to digest and process the last minute stuff with NBA. Agree or disagree?

    Agreed, but that’s really on the “average Joe.” The information is out there; if they can’t get on Twitter or DK for the final 15 minutes or so before lock, then there’s really nothing anyone can do for them. (And knowing how to digest and process last minute news is part of the skill element.)

    That said, hopefully NBA starts to get their shit together and there aren’t so many late scratches and what-not (I get it’s always going to happen to some degree, but it’s been pretty ridiculous).

  • emnj69

    @jmo26 said...

    Agreed. I don’t think they need to fully remove the top-heavy contests, as they certainly lure in some players through those huge 1st place prizes, but the majority of contests don’t need to be that way (and I think as people start to understand the game, they’re less interested in those lottery-esque GPPs).

    once they get rid of big prizes I am out-I dont want to win some shitty prize which is why I wont do yahoo or some of the smaller platforms-the big ones also attract easy marks

  • jmo26

    @emnj69 said...

    once they get rid of big prizes I am out-I dont want to win some shitty prize which is why I wont do yahoo or some of the smaller platforms-the big ones also attract easy marks

    Define big prizes.

    And are you actually winning these prizes, or you just like to dream about the possibility of one day winning them?

  • bookitboi

    Sadly, the Forbes article sums up the state of the DFS industry pretty well from my perspective. The years of significant growth are long gone and these sites face legitimate problems in the future as they are having a hard time retaining the average rec player and they will continue to lose pro’s as the edge has gotten smaller/rake higher – making it not worth it for many to continue. Cash games seem to be bordering on extinction as the edge gets smaller and smaller. There’s been a clear drop in volume amongst pro’s in cash games (No late swap in NBA has accelerated this). Pro’s like Hoop and Birdwings playing identical cash lineups every night and more importantly who played $1-2 cash games for years and years until regulations eliminated this option – certainly did not help player retention nor the growth of cash games. Add in increased rake, increased competition, and more variance with the majority of payout structures being top heavy, gpps have become more difficult as well. At the end of the day, the sites are in a tough position. They need rake to stay afloat, but the higher the rake – the quicker the average player loses their money and less incentive the pro’s have to continue to play. Add in some mismanagement along the way and it’s not surprising to see these sites struggling. I’m not optimistic, but hopefully they can come up with some new ways to increase growth and retain players in the future.

  • kaetorade

    • 2013 DraftStreet DSBBC Finalist

    My perspective as a cash game player:

    1)Sites decided that third parties were necessary to attract/retain players.
    2)In order to survive, third party sites needed to provide an edge.
    3)Over the years, #2 would multiply and become the norm; thus, what was once an edge became a prerequisite of sorts for DFS.
    4)Rather than simply turn the other cheek, DFS sites took it a step further. They started to promote overlap by offering dfs content on their own sites and seemingly, priced players accordingly. Intentional or otherwise, the end result is the same. Ultimately, player overlap is the death of cash games.

    I often hear that the DFS sites cater to the 1% and that the average player isn’t prioritized. It’s my opinion that the opposite can also be said. In an attempt to bridge the gap, DFS sites focused on reducing the edge. In the process, they removed the allure of DFS as more than just a hobby. Sharks chase the edge, perceived or otherwise. Casuals chase the dream. People will always gamble and people will always dream. Industry leaders apparently lost sight of that.

  • pointsmuncher

    I mean, its the truth man.

    1. ‘Sites could do better in recruiting people’ – Who are they going to recruit now? The people that already tried it? I know there is a percentage of the population that enjoys lighting money on fire just to watch it burn but have you met someone or heard of someone that played DFS then stopped and after some time came back and started playing again because they missed it? Once people play they learn they are either in the top 1% of 1% of people with the free time, patience, intelligence, and bankroll to attempt to turn a profit playing DFS or they understand over a period of time they are going to lose their money. Losing money in season-long can be enjoyable because you get to make fun of your friends/family/league mates for a few months at a time and after a few seasons you find out that injuries and luck over the course of a season will account for the majority of your championship runs instead of skill. If you can accept that then losing can still be enjoyable. But in DFS you lose your money and that is all. No one talks, there is no chat board, hard facts and numbers are the only things that matter and too many people you compete against are professionals. Why feel like a sucker by throwing more money at it? What percentage of people that try it turn a profit by continuing to play it?. There is no social aspect. Its a lonely world and feels pretty bleak. Almost no one will come back to it after experiencing it.

    2. ‘That’s obvious exaggeration, doom and gloom, and it just muddies the water of any problem-solving conversation imo.’ – I guess. Who has marketing missed over the last 4 years? What demographic still needs to be tapped to restore FD and DK to their previous glory? At their peak did they turn a profit? This isn’t a problem-solving conversation, its people discussing an article on why the biggest DFS sites are struggling to grow. Saying ‘they could market better’ isn’t a solution, its a general statement that applies to 100% of businesses in this world. DFS is spotty enough in the US from a legal perspective and expanding into the global market in a larger scale would be folly.

    If the truth hurt your feelings man I guess I’m sorry you took it that way. DFS will always be around IMO. There are enough people like you to drive the demand side to warrant someone willing to offer the service on a smaller scale. DK and FD engaged in a marketing nuclear war in a race to see who would go public first and get rich fastest and the industry got swallowed up by the need to pay for the war. Rake shot up which is driving the professionals away. The professionals not max entering is going to take the top off the big GPPs and less people are going to respond and sign up for a chance at the Sunday 50k instead of the Millionaire Maker. I guess there is a future in the industry somewhere but the current structure is going to lead to shark on shark violence in order to maintain the volume necessary to justify continuing to take the risks.

  • superstars92

    • 128

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #86

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Oh I just saw this post. I’m not surprised they are losing sharks’ money. I thought it was clear that most “sharks” were losing money, and since they don’t have an infinite bankroll, they’ll have to quit eventually.

    If DK wants more money, what they should actually do is go back to 500 max entry limits and lower rake. This will help bring back sharks actually and also help casual people. That double combo is probably a better business model than what they have now.

    It’s such an easy fix actually 500 max and lower rake. It’ll probably make it overall better for them. In fact, they should possibly allow infinite limit entry but combo it with lower rake. As a person entering about 10-30 a night, I would be in support of infinite limit entry but a reduction in rake. I would be in support of this even if I did 1 entry because I know EV will improve with a lower rake, and I’m not as nearsighted as the people who complain “but my chances of winning the overall thing is lower.”

  • superstars92

    • 128

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #86

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @kaetorade said...

    My perspective as a cash game player:

    1)Sites decided that third parties were necessary to attract/retain players.
    2)In order to survive, third party sites needed to provide an edge.
    3)Over the years, #2 would multiply and become the norm; thus, what was once an edge became a prerequisite of sorts for DFS.
    4)Rather than simply turn the other cheek, DFS sites took it a step further. They started to promote overlap by offering dfs content on their own sites and seemingly, priced players accordingly. Intentional or otherwise, the end result is the same. Ultimately, player overlap is the death of cash games.

    I often hear that the DFS sites cater to the 1% and that the average player isn’t prioritized. It’s my opinion that the opposite can also be said. In an attempt to bridge the gap, DFS sites focused on reducing the edge. In the process, they removed the allure of DFS as more than just a hobby. Sharks chase the edge, perceived or otherwise. Casuals chase the dream. People will always gamble and people will always dream. Industry leaders apparently lost sight of that.

    Yes exactly. I talked about this like around a year ago when Saahil quit.

    This also then indirectly led to slightly increases in rake over time (to make up for the lost sharks and their lost additional 350 entries), which then just hurts everyone overall and especially sharks, so then more will quit, and it’s a vicious cycle. This increase in rake then also hurts all casual players too.

    I’m almost 100% positive they are better off doing something in which there’s more randomness in the pricing, going to infinite entry limits, BUT then reducing the overall rake for everyone. Everyone will win here. It’ll be more +EV for EVERY single player with a lower rake (please think in EV terms here) and sites will get more money because although they lose rake, they gain entries, which means they gain more revenue overall.

    Like if you have a problem with infinite entry limits, think about it. Would you, as a casual player, really quit if there were infinite entry limits, especially if I told you you would now pay like a 15% decrease in rake? No probably not.

  • Thanasi

    The first & most effective first step would be to spread out the currently top heavy payout structure. This should be a easy & painless fix.

  • DoubleTime

    • 2016 King of Summer: August

    I like that idea superstar, raise limits and have more/larger contests, generate more money, and pass the savings onto us with reduced rake. It make sense in theory. But unfortunately I just checked Bovada and the odds of DK lowering the rake are: +90,000,000,00000000

  • Njsum1

    @Thanasi said...

    The first & most effective first step would be to spread out the currently top heavy payout structure. This should be a easy & painless fix.

    This is the main problem right now, and needs to be fixed. Many people dont play cash games anymore and prefer to grind in GPPs. Problem is that it’s very difficult, if not impossible, to grind in GPPs when min cash is 1.5x and 1st place gets 10 to 20% of the prize pool. Now I’m not sure if this top heavy, “dangle the carrot” structure is needed to compel people to play, yet it’s terrible for both the sites and players. Players who win, will simply withdraw their money, while everyone else slowly bleeds their bankroll. A structure where 5 to 8% goes to first, 23 to 25% min cash, and min cash is always a double up, is best for keeping money on the sites and making bankrolls last longer. Both of which leads to more rake and happier players 😁. Unfortunately this structure is only offered in the QA and $1 GPPs.

    I do also like the idea of raising the max back to 500 or even unlimited and lowering the rake, as long as they keep the single and 20 max as well.

  • jrwax2

    FD, DK and even the guys here at RG ruined this thing (dfs). By turning a blind eye to the unfairness and gray areas in DFS, chased so may people away and left them with a bad taste in their mouths. Churning will not be successful as people have moved on! It really could’ve been great but the powers that be at the aforementioned businesses had their head up their asses.

  • SkateFiend

    @jmo26 said...

    I suspect there’s some projection going on here. They’re not knowledgeable enough to play DFS, or not sharp enough to win GPPs? Sure most won’t be able to make any sort of living out of it, but of course they’re knowledgeable enough to play and enjoy it (how many sports fans do you know who don’t think they know everything? I know very few). Do you honestly think only the best and brightest play DFS?

    As for the untapped market, let’s just say you’re right about the fact that it’s limited to just those already playing season-long fantasy (of course it isn’t) — that’s still a pretty big market. You noted yourself how significant it is in an earlier post, and while a new company might have to enter the space to lure them in, I don’t think it’s impossible to think that more of them could be converted.

    And who says everyone has to play every sport? I certainly don’t.

    Most sports fans are generally bandwagon fans. You could actually say that about some season long fantasy guys. Even in pro leagues with 20 dollar entry fee half the field pretty much abandon their teams by mid point. And a lot of them draft crappy teams. These people are unlikely to deposit 50 plus dollars at DK. It’s just a lot of work and research for most people.

    None of my friends play DFS, and you mentioned not many in your own circle play DFS. But In almost every work or college setting I was in March Madness bracket and or season long fantasy were a thing. If there’s a bridge between season long fantasy and DFS, not many have really crossed it. DFS isn’t all that new anymore.

    By some estimates 75 million people play season long fantasy a year. These are consumers who follow the 4 major North American sports leagues that constitute a playing field for DFS. It’s not that big. How many people watch Youtube in a day? Soccer is the one true global sports but DFS isn’t a thing in Europe. Outside of the local base there aren’t probably aren’t enough people who know the nuances of our games to seriously play DFS.

    People do a TON of research on anything that involves their money. I know I did. Even 3 years ago, every reputable source indicate that the sharks eat most of the money. That probably turned off some potential customers, and some sharks are apparently decreasing their volume. They need new customers to keep going, and in my mind the best way to do that is creating more casual friendly contests.

  • superstars92

    • 128

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #86

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @SkateFiend said...

    People do a TON of research on anything that involves their money. I know I did. Even 3 years ago, every reputable source indicate that the sharks eat most of the money. That probably turned off some potential customers, and some sharks are apparently decreasing their volume. They need new customers to keep going, and in my mind the best way to do that is creating more casual friendly contests.

    This is only true if you normalize to # of entries. Per entry, I’m willing to bet sharks don’t have a pnl/entry higher than that of normal people on here.

  • Orangeflow

    The single game entries are doing VERY WELL. Leaves little room for bad selections in players. At the same time I am sure single game slates turn the sharks stomachs.

  • tom14cat14

    I think this is just the natural cycle of gambling. When it is fresh and new everyone wants to try it. Loose money and then move on. Poker was big in the Bars around here about 8 years ago. Now I think 1 bar has poker. People get sick of losing so they stop showing up. I deposited a few years ago won some then lost it all because of poor bankroll management. I started again in the fall with free rolls and turned it into $100 I have now been on a losing streak and frankly sick of how tight it is to even cash. You make what is assumed to be a good plays but 1 guys falters and your most likely done. I just with drew my $63 I had left. I know it could be variance and I might come back. But I know most likely I will just slowly lose the money. I will play free rolls to get my kicks of drafting.

  • jmo26

    @SkateFiend said...

    Most sports fans are generally bandwagon fans. You could actually say that about some season long fantasy guys. Even in pro leagues with 20 dollar entry fee half the field pretty much abandon their teams by mid point. And a lot of them draft crappy teams. These people are unlikely to deposit 50 plus dollars at DK. It’s just a lot of work and research for most people.

    The reason people often abandon their team midway through the season is because their team sucks, and they’ve been virtually eliminated from the playoffs at that point. If it’s not a keeper league, there’s very little incentive to continue participating. That’s part of the beauty of DFS — each day’s a new day, and you’re not stuck with the dogshit team you drafted at the beginning of the season.

    As for being bandwagon fans, I don’t know, I guess? You don’t need to know everything about sports to play DFS — some of the most successful guys on here don’t even watch sports, they just enjoy the analytics side of it. For others, picking some guys from the evening’s slate just makes watching the games a little more entertaining (I know people like this)… if they win a little money, great, but they aren’t expecting to hit six figures. There is an entertainment component to this as well.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    DK and FD contests sell out every single night. Often so early that people on the forums bitch about it. So, who is then filling these contests consistently? The sharks who are playing less or the casual player who is giving up. The tales of woe filling this thread doesn’t match the reality of the situation.

  • jmo26

    @sochoice said...

    DK and FD contests sell out every single night. Often so early that people on the forums bitch about it. So, who is then filling these contests consistently? The sharks who are playing less or the casual player who is giving up. The tales of woe filling this thread doesn’t match the reality of the situation.

    Huh? The question is with respect to whether they can continue to grow.

  • Clyde

    Sochoice’s point is well taken, however…I know if I don’t have dummy lineups in early, by the time I’m ready to construct real lineups, say at 4:00 (cst) there will be no vacancies…and most of these are the .25 tournaments that often have over 100,000 entries…these tournaments did not even exist on Fanduel a year ago to my knowledge…there’s some growth

  • jjwd

    @sochoice said...

    DK and FD contests sell out every single night. Often so early that people on the forums bitch about it. So, who is then filling these contests consistently? The sharks who are playing less or the casual player who is giving up. The tales of woe filling this thread doesn’t match the reality of the situation.

    Yup. I got a big beef with them filling things very early all the time… seems like casuals would be less likely to enter early.
    Therefore there are still a lot of regs and sharks left. Do casuals enter the leftover mini contests? Who knows, we don’t have those numbers.

  • jmo26

    The question is whether they’ve saturated the market, or if there remains a segment they can still attract in order to continue to grow (the findings in the article suggest that their best bet is to find a way to convince former users to come back).

    While they’re no doubt thrilled to have minimal overlay, the fact that contests are currently filling early is irrelevant.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    @jmo26 said...

    The question is whether they’ve saturated the market, or if there remains a segment they can still attract in order to continue to grow (the findings in the article suggest that their best bet is to find a way to convince former users to come back).

    While they’re no doubt thrilled to have minimal overlay, the fact that contests are currently filling early is irrelevant.

    Directly from the article “Total entry fees have seemed to plateau, with a base case projection that those fees only grow by 2% in 2018 over 2017.” 2% growth is growth, no? Or do you have another definition for growth?

  • jmo26

    @sochoice said...

    Directly from the article “Total entry fees have seemed to plateau, with a base case projection that those fees only grow by 2% in 2018 over 2017.” 2% growth is growth, no? Or do you have another definition for growth?

    Yes, they’re projecting ONLY 2% growth in paid entry fees; is it growth, sure? But it’s minimal, and indicates that unless they can soon attract more players, they are about to PLATEAU.

    In other words, stop growing. Hit a ceiling. Peak.

    Another projection provided in the article: “a decrease in DFS total entry fees to $2.5 billion by 2020.” ($3.26 billion in 2017)

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Sites mentioned in this thread

Use our links to sign up and deposit on sites listed in this thread to get these bonuses:

Subforum Index

New RotoGrinders Sports Betting Section!

Are you a DFS player who wants to get into sports betting?

If you have access to New Jersey sports betting, then use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code and our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get the best bonuses in the NJ industry.

Those who can take advantage of PA online sports betting should use our SugarHouse PA promo code to get the best sports betting bonus in Pennsylvania.

If you don't yet have access to an online sportsbook, check out Monkey Knife Fight, a prop betting platform available in 31 states. Use our Monkey Knife Fight promo code to get a fantastic bonus.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler