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  • tgowen

    • Blogger of the Month

    I’m not sure what caused this thought to come to my mind, but I was thinking yesterday about 3 big components that I see in MLB:

    • Skill (the ability to understand both the sport, and the game of DFS)
    • Chance (the random occurrence of things that happen even though they may be unlikely)
    • The ability to enter multiple lineups into a single contest

    As I was thinking about these I was trying to determine how I would break each of them down in terms of their importance relative to having a successful day in MLB DFS. To do this I looked at the idea of success as a combination of percentages. With that, I ended my mental debate on this:

    Skill 50%
    Chance 15%
    Ability to enter multiple lineups 35%

    Part of me thinks the ability to enter multiple lineups is even more important than I have it listed, but I couldn’t determine what other aspect needed to be lowered. I’m curious to hear the thoughts of others, if for no other reason than to have some interesting debates.

    FWIW, I viewed the ability to enter multiple lineups based on what I typically see on DK with a 20 entry limit. Obviously, some may view it differently if the cap is 150 lineups.

    Have a great day everyone.

  • TeamTwerk

    I would put it at:
    Chance 90%
    Skill 10%
    Ability to enter multiple lineups 0%

    The ability to enter multiple lineups shouldn’t have anything to do with whether or not you win or lose money. Create 150 lineups and pick one of them out of a hat and enter it. It should be expected to win/lose same percentage as the batch of 150.

  • tgowen

    • Blogger of the Month

    The reason I put so much value in multiple lineups is I will always view a person who enters 20 lineups into a competition as having a greater chance to win (or place significantly higher) than the person who enters a single lineup. The person with 20 lineups has a greater chance to benefit from both the positive matchup possibilities while also taking into account the potential for “chance,” where the single lineup player is dependent on every selection they make being the right choice.

  • thedkexperience

    I play almost exclusively single entry tournaments but ESPECIALLY in baseball.

    Fact is you are going to be wrong … and sometimes catastrophically wrong in baseball. If you play almost every day you will get last in a single entry if you’re doing it properly at some point. Having 150 lineups won’t help because most people will do something like “i had 35% exposure to Judge, 30% to Blackmon and 35% to Trout in my OF1 spot” which sounds all great until they all get zeros and Andrew McCutchen has 34 points at half the price in a bad matchup.

    If you want to be profitable in MLB trying to do so primarily in 150 entry tournaments is the riskiest of propositions. Focus on 1 great lineup per slate. Set your sights lower. MLB is not the sport to get rich off of. It’s the sport to build your bankroll up for football which is the sport you play DFS to get rich off of. Baseball simply has too many opportunities to lose money so limiting your exposure is key to long term sustainability.

    So for that 0%.

    As for skill vs luck it’s 70-80% skill. You need to be able to laser pinpoint inexpensive bats especially at OF2 and OF3. There is a lot of skill in knowing when to hit the Jay Bruce button and not the JT Realmuto button.

    The luck comes in because of baseball intrinsically being a sport with a 30% success rate. You can identify the apex perfect match up that truly increases your batter up to a 40% success rate and they’ll still suck 60% of the time. You can mess up the whole scouting aspect and put a guy in who only truly has a 20% success rate but … whoops … they went 2-5 for 2 homers and 28+ DK points. THIS is where luck comes in. The small margin between a spot where a guy should go 2-5 or 1-5 with that extra hit ideally being a homer.

    Pitching is it’s own separate book I could write but no … it’s not luck that the same pitchers get Cy Young votes every year. I’ll just say that.

    Anyway, mostly skill with the process but luck plays a 20-30% chance on if your process works out that day. The number of lineups has nothing to do with your success except in extreme circumstances like being a guy with a YouTube channel.

    ———

    Adding – skill can be measured in many ways. Many people pour over stats for hours on end. I think that’s silly. Want to know what I do each year to get familiar with the players?

    I buy each video game.

    Seems silly but I know which players are fast. I know the ones with power. I know which pitchers suck to hit against. Stuff like that. So when I see a guy who has tons of talent but is priced low, I pounce. These companies make hundreds of millions of dollars off of these games. Never dismiss how accurate they actually are.

  • SubtleHyperbole

    …. if that was true, then why are the biggest cheating scandals involving DFS’s pros involve two or more individuals arranging their lines w/out overlap in order to surpass the limited maximum allowed entries?

  • FuzzyOzzy

    @SubtleHyperbole said...

    …. if that was true, then why are the biggest cheating scandals involving DFS’s pros involve two or more individuals arranging their lines w/out overlap in order to surpass the limited maximum allowed entries?

    In baseball? Cause I have heard of that for Football…which is a completely different beast.

  • SubtleHyperbole

    I don’t understand how the combinatorics advantage of doubling the number of sets your “team” is collectively submitting would be different depending on the sport.

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