BANKROLL FORUM

Comments

  • ldmariodl28

    • Blogger of the Month

    Have you used the Kelly Criterion formula for bankroll management, and have you had success with it?

    Please let me know, and also explain how you have gone about using it.

    Thanks

  • JohnnyTsunami

    Ive read in a mlb blog that playing 3 man leagues is the best way to beat the rake…..

  • sethayates

    @ldmariodl28 said...

    Well this thread has sure been a downer lol

    This thread has been interesting. While we are on the subject, does anyone have an opinion on 3 man leagues instead of H2H? You only have to win 37% of 3 man leagues to almost break even.

    37 wins=37x$2.70-37=$62.9 profit
    63 losses=63x$1=$63 loss

    This situation you lose $0.10. If someone wanted to go this route they would need to analyze their actual contest results instead of just the win rate. For example, you are winning 56% of H2H but how often are you in the 56 percentile of scores? How often are you above?

    For example: Let’s assume the same 100 people play h2h and 3 man leagues with the same teams in both. You are playing $100 worth of $1 games everyday. Day 1 you win 95 of 100. Day 2 you win 68. Day 3 you win 5. That is in fact 168 wins out of 300 or 56%. That would be break even for H2H but the way the results were achieved it would seem this person should play 3 man leagues.

    If the h2h player were winning just straight 56 of 100 games per day it would make sense to stick to H2H as those same lineups would be unlikely to win 37% of 3 man leagues.

  • djjoeyg

    Dont forget about taxes at the end of the year…..;-(

  • sethayates

    @djjoeyg said...

    Dont forget about taxes at the end of the year…..;-(

    Taxes are completely irrelevant until you are actually profitable. You don’t pay taxes on your losses.

  • pmsimkins

    • 2014 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    Start tracking your results ASAP. You’ve played thousands of contests, you need to know how you’re doing in $$$.

  • RadonLove

    @pmsimkins said...

    Start tracking your results ASAP. You’ve played thousands of contests, you need to know how you’re doing in $$$.

    This is strong advice. If you’ve got no other plan, try the RG bankroll tracker. I got some surprising results. When you play any amount of volume and multiple sports, you can lose track quickly of how you are doing. You’ll just see the one number (your balance). If your balance is going up (or even if it’s holding steady), you’ll assume you must be doing things right. When I imported data into the RG tracker, I found I was hemorrhaging money at MLB, which I would have thought was my best sport. (Perhaps too many Monster entries.)

  • ldmariodl28

    • Blogger of the Month

    Ok this is very interesting..

    I mentioned how my h2h win % is 55%

    My 50/50 win % is 53%

    My 3 Man win % is 53%

    My 10 man cash % is 71%

  • onyxmeth

    @ldmariodl28 said...

    Ok this is very interesting..

    I mentioned how my h2h win % is 55%

    My 50/50 win % is 53%

    My 3 Man win % is 53%

    My 10 man cash % is 71%

    If there’s a large enough sample there, you might want to shift everything over to 3 and 10 man leagues.

  • ldmariodl28

    • Blogger of the Month

    H2h is 240 games

    50/50 is 63 games
    3 man is 17 games
    10 man is 14 games

  • onyxmeth

    That’s not a large sample at all. I would just play more games and keep track. It’s hard to make any determinations with that small a sample size. Even H2H you need to play more.

  • troveur

    @ldmariodl28 said...

    H2h is 240 games

    50/50 is 63 games
    3 man is 17 games
    10 man is 14 games

    LOL 334 games? OK Lets be clear here…with that small sample size you cannot possibly have any clue what your real win% is yet. Play 10,000 more and you’ll have a much better picture—you could be a lot better and you could also be a lot worse, but at this point in your dfs journey that 334 game sample is meaningless.

  • kaetorade

    • 2013 DraftStreet DSBBC Finalist

    @ldmariodl28 said...

    H2h is 240 games

    50/50 is 63 games
    3 man is 17 games
    10 man is 14 games

    When referring to sample size, days played is a much better indicator than actual games played.

  • ldmariodl28

    • Blogger of the Month

    The sample size I’m taking is specific to NBA and fanduel from 12/1-present.

    @troveur my journey started 3 years ago.. Just trying to figure out specifically NBA on fanduel. The only time in my DFS career I have had a stedy bankroll management plan was two years ago on daily joust where I played 20% a day and had a certain amount allotted to each game type. That was my best season of DFS going from $50 to above $2k. That was then though… This is now. The past 3 weeks I have done 10% and broken down as follows

    60% h2h
    30% 50/50
    2.5% 3 man
    2.5% 10 man
    5% gpp

  • ldmariodl28

    • Blogger of the Month

    Yesterday I decided to up my % back to 20% because that’s what I want to do and I’m comfortable with that. I just increased my 3 man and 10 man % to 3.5. This is what my buy ins would look like today. Keep in mind I’m not including incoming NFL winnings in my bankroll.

  • Yukerboy

    • Ranked #92

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Blogger of the Month

    I go strictly by Kelly Criterion x .5 in my double up and heads up games. 1/5 of that total goes into GPPs. I only use the double ups to figure out my win percentage.

    Right now, I cash in 68% of double ups. 36% would be the KC bet. I go 18% in double ups and h2h, then 3.6% goes into GPPs.

    In no way am I saying this is the perfect formula, but it works for me. Also, I count win percent by start times instead of straight up. If I cash in all my double ups for 7:00 start times, that’s a win. If I don’t, it’s a loss. Doesn’t matter if I entered 6 or 60 contests.

  • ColonialRampage

    For anyone actually interested in learning more about Kelly I’d definitely +1 RadonLove’s suggestion to pick up Fortune’s Formula. It’s a good read with a great mix of information and storytelling.

    The examples listed here showing how a 55% winner can be a losing player are important for those players who view DFS as a bankroll-growing venture. However, if you factor in the entertainment value of sweating 100 h2h matches vs half of a night at the movies, you’re probably getting a positive expected value from the experience.

    That being said the math should show you why you should be putting entertainment money rather than investment money into DFS until you can consistently beat the rake.

  • jat1702

    Not sure if this is the right thread but after looking thru here I decided to buy the bankroll tracker. I did the instructions, and went to paste it in. I obviously wasn’t pasting all at once, as that’d crash my excel probably…but apparently only pasting 1 line crashed it too. I even tried to make it 2 of the cats on the line instead of the whole line(i mean like cats like the time it started, places paid, etc), and it still crashed. Did this happen to anyone else or is it just that my computer sucks?

    Probably important that I use DK btw.

  • Putz

    Get to 60% success rate and then enjoy. Build better lineups is what many would say.

  • DillingerFour

    FD Rep - DFBMeeMee Champ (x2)

    • Blogger of the Month

    @ColonialRampage said...

    For anyone actually interested in learning more about Kelly I’d definitely +1 RadonLove’s suggestion to pick up Fortune’s Formula. It’s a good read with a great mix of information and storytelling.

    +1 To this as well. I love Poundstone’s books. He has a great way of writing where he teaches you a lot while weaving it into a story. Easily my favorite author.

  • elctrceye

    • Blogger of the Month

    @RadonLove said...

    You may be confusing Kelly Criterion with the very unsound Martingale progression.

    then there is always the #TomacMethod

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