STRATEGY FORUM

Comments

  • jv21

    So I have been playing dfs for 5 years now. A lot of ups and down. Lifetime I am down like 10-20%. That’s not too bad for a should be hobby. Every nfl & nba season, I put in some effort to learn how to play dfs. I spend hours reading articles, watching shows and listening videos.

    This nfl season I am down. So far NBA has not been great. I think part of my problem is that these years of experience I have built up have really been a negative. (Beyond the basic stuff like who players are, how sites are structured and why news matter)

    In NFL, I try to stack a QB with their pass catchers and possibly a bring back. Every week I pick wrong and the winning lineup is a some thing like a QB/RB/WR stack or some combination that I would never do causes it’s neg correlation, etc. Like this knowledge I have learned that is holding me back. I am sure most of you have seen the meme of having a losing week but being happy that you built an +EV lineup. In NBA, there so many blowouts and non blowouts, that any opinions I have of teams and players is just wrong.

    There’s a story that I like to reflect on when I lose was a years ago I heard about a group of friends who stacked the Saints every week for the season. During one of the week they hit and won a qualifier to the WFFC or something. As a Viking fan, if I just did that all season, I would probably be up. But as someone who knows “dfs” that’s not really a strategy I have seen endorsed.

    Anyone have suggestions on resetting my mindset how to play dfs? Sometimes I just want to go back to being a casual, have that beginners luck, play my favorites play with no worries of being +EV or making the “right” decisions.

  • Jamescan22

    So what you’re telling me is that you’re like 95% of DFS players?

    I don’t want to spell it out for you but If you’re doing research and getting quality advice (Like the rest of us), what in the world makes you think that you’re going to make any sort of money doing this? The rake is 15% . If you’re not that much better than the rest of us, you’re not going to be making any cash doing this.

    If it’s a hobby, keep it that way.

    The only reason I am stubborn is because my projections and spreadsheet are flavored for my liking which I believe will make me more competitive and I’m most likely wrong.

    Another thing is that there have only been about 7 games per team, we can’t make any strong inferences on how good of a player you are right now based on the small sample size.

  • jv21

    @Jamescan22 said...

    So what you’re telling me is that you’re like 95% of DFS players?

    I don’t want to spell it out for you but If you’re doing research and getting quality advice (Like the rest of us), what in the world makes you think that you’re going to make any sort of money doing this? The rake is 15% . If you’re not that much better than the rest of us, you’re not going to be making any cash doing this.

    If it’s a hobby, keep it that way.

    The only reason I am stubborn is because my projections and spreadsheet are flavored for my liking which I believe will make me more competitive and I’m most likely wrong.

    Another thing is that there have only been about 7 games per team, we can’t make any strong inferences on how good of a player you are right now based on the small sample size.

    You make good points and I don’t disagree with you.

    I am just trying to figure out the best way to approach playing dfs. Everything I have learned clearly have not been working for me. Maybe I’ll just stick to being lucky.

    Yes 7 game is not a good enough sample size to know what’s teams are good or bad. But no one expected the Knicks to blowout the Bucks. Was it wrong to think so? I know both teams changed rosters/coaches. So is most historic data wrong? It has not helped so far. These are the problems I have.

  • SkateFiend

    You should try out formats others than huge GPP contests and cash games. That’s what made the game more enjoyable for me.

    Both FD and DK have snake draft contests now and at casual level those are a lot of fun. No trains and optimizers there, and you have a chance at a unique lineup. It’s entirely possible to win 3 out of 5 nights and that small sense of accomplishment is enough to make you feel good. Play only GPP in the NBA and you may go through a 2 weeks of losing money. Avoid 12 player SD contests if you want play 5 bucks or more though.

    Public league contests (that’s hard to find elsewhere) and Quick match at Yahoo are also worth checking out. Quick Match is literally the only cash game I play. The player pool at Yahoo is more forgiving than elsewhere, and you occasionally get matched up against a “veteran” who just plum forgets to swap out inactive players.

    I found out a long time ago that the game becomes stressful if you follow a blueprint every day. “I really like this player but his ownership will be so high”. Just play him if you really like him. Some of the DFS advice online is from 2016 and is terribly dated. I remember one article that urged me to punt the SF spot – not in 2021.

  • factorial89

    before making out any lineups say this-i do not know anything here but neither noes anyone else

  • BigRay

    What helped me was really determining why I was playing. I am going to win a large GPP, probably not. Am I going to make a living off this, once again probably not. The most I ever won was a NFL SNF SD $1 single entry and it was $2000. That was a rare occurrence. I play for Ironman on DK and have been diamond 6 months in a row. I play the smaller GPP’s where you might win $30-$100 bucks for a 1st. I choose the ones close to lock as people are throwing in the 3rd or 4th best line up in the mad scramble before lock. Also, for NFL you have to be contrarian to win money. I don’t win lot’s of dough but I don’t have to deposit very often. It has become a fun hobby that helps me enjoy sports even more than I would normally. After 5 plus years here as well, I don’t spend as much time braking down slates. The payoff was not worth the effort. This year, the only thing I do spend time on is CBB because it is new to me. My suggestion is to look for what you enjoy about DFS and make decisions about your play based on those enjoyments.

  • bigwillie20

    I started playing basically only single entry contests and I found it is much more enjoyable. No you don’t get that chance of a huge score but you can still have a chance at a good payday without worrying about drawing dead 20 minutes into a slate like the big GPP’s

  • jv21

    Y’all make good points. I may just start treating dfs just as a casual hobby and play it for fun similar to how I play soccer (I play it for fun and the challenge).

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 360

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #70

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @jv21 said...

    Y’all make good points. I may just start treating dfs just as a casual hobby and play it for fun similar to how I play soccer (I play it for fun and the challenge).

    You have to decide if you want to chase big GPP payouts, make a consistent ROI playing less lineups in 20 max, 5 max, 3 max, single entry or make a consistent profit in cash games.

    There is SO MUCH content now that +EV isn’t really +EV anymore. All the picks you hear about/read about etc are GREAT for cash play. Sometimes if its a chalk smash week those picks will appear in the winning lineups in GPP but with a combo you might not be on with the QB/WR/WR stacks + bring back.

    If you are going to play the big GPPs you have to embrace leverage. If a guy is going to be 40-50% owned, you fade or soft fade. Realize that the guy (or gal if playing MMA, LPGA or WNBA) is that high owned BECAUSE they are +EV in a vacuum. They aren’t the only plays. There will be weeks like Week 17 when Henry, Taylor and Mattison all smash and this strategy won’t pay off. That’s ok. Look at the lineups players like Awesemo or HeadChopper play. They have weeks, probably, where they have -100% ROI. And then they win a million dollars one week.

    There’s edges to be had out there still. But if you are playing tout lineups, stick to cash games. If you play the RG generated optimal lineup in cash games you’ll probably win 55% of the time and slowly lose to the rake but its a good opto and easy to leverage on to on any given night.

    FWIW, you SHOULD have played a Viking in basically every lineup this season. JM at Oneweekseason even strongly advocates this stratgey haha.

    The game has changed in five years for sure, I’ve been playing for six now and still have to work hard to make money consistently. You have to ask yourself what you are playing for. Huge payday? GPPs, but you have to use the tout content differently. Higher ROI? Single/3max etc and leverage the chalk. More consistent/even profit? Play cash games and chalk it up. Can’t do all three unless you are spending tons of money every slate.

  • thedkexperience

    I had this happen to me about 3 years ago. I was doing ok … cashing sometimes, staying reasonably afloat, not embarrassing myself but also not actually, you know, making money.

    At that point I made 2 big changes to fix leaks.

    - I started entering almost all single entry tournaments.

    - I stopped playing cash games almost entirely.

    I know the draw back … bUt YOuLl NevEr wIn MILlIoNz!!! Well reality check, if I can’t beat 500 people in a single entry using my best lineup I’m not gonna beat 150,000 people using my 127th best lineup either.

    In the past 3 years I’ve had … I think … 10 single entry cashes between roughly $300 and $600 and an a bazillion min cashes. I’ve had outright wins in MLB, NFL and MMA. Unfortunately none in NBA but such is life.

    I’m not a millionaire but at least my favorite hobby has been paying me $1000-$2000 a year now. Most days I don’t even play more than one or two $12 lineups. I also don’t even bother with full slates 99% of the time. Gimme those 2-5 game single entry slates. In those I’ll put my skills against anyone. In anything outside of that range, no thanks.

    Just like in poker often times the biggest decision you make at the table is deciding which table to sit at. I can’t beat Awesomo at his game. If he wants to beat me it’ll be on my terms.

  • thedkexperience

    @bigwillie20 said...

    I started playing basically only single entry contests and I found it is much more enjoyable. No you don’t get that chance of a huge score but you can still have a chance at a good payday without worrying about drawing dead 20 minutes into a slate like the big GPP’s

    I didn’t read any of the replies before I made my reply. It appears a lot of us came to the same conclusion; if you want to turn a 10% negative ROI to a 10% positive ROI you first need to focus on not losing money with secondary lineups (let alone your 150th) and simply submit your best lineup one time to a single entry.

  • MattyK1981

    @thedkexperience said...

    Just like in poker often times the biggest decision you make at the table is deciding which table to sit at. I can’t beat Awesomo at his game. If he wants to beat me it’ll be on my terms.

    sage words right here, well put

  • jv21

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    You have to decide if you want to chase big GPP payouts, make a consistent ROI playing less lineups in 20 max, 5 max, 3 max, single entry or make a consistent profit in cash games.

    There is SO MUCH content now that +EV isn’t really +EV anymore. All the picks you hear about/read about etc are GREAT for cash play. Sometimes if its a chalk smash week those picks will appear in the winning lineups in GPP but with a combo you might not be on with the QB/WR/WR stacks + bring back.

    If you are going to play the big GPPs you have to embrace leverage. If a guy is going to be 40-50% owned, you fade or soft fade. Realize that the guy (or gal if playing MMA, LPGA or WNBA) is that high owned BECAUSE they are +EV in a vacuum. They aren’t the only plays. There will be weeks like Week 17 when Henry, Taylor and Mattison all smash and this strategy won’t pay off. That’s ok. Look at the lineups players like Awesemo or HeadChopper play. They have weeks, probably, where they have -100% ROI. And then they win a million dollars one week.

    There’s edges to be had out there still. But if you are playing tout lineups, stick to cash games. If you play the RG generated optimal lineup in cash games you’ll probably win 55% of the time and slowly lose to the rake but its a good opto and easy to leverage on to on any given night.

    FWIW, you SHOULD have played a Viking in basically every lineup this season. JM at Oneweekseason even strongly advocates this stratgey haha.

    The game has changed in five years for sure, I’ve been playing for six now and still have to work hard to make money consistently. You have to ask yourself what you are playing for. Huge payday? GPPs, but you have to use the tout content differently. Higher ROI? Single/3max etc and leverage the chalk. More consistent/even profit? Play cash games and chalk it up. Can’t do all three unless you are spending tons of money every slate.

    A lot of good points and I agree with you. I have come to the same conclusion but its been tough to change a mindset/habit that I have built over the past years hence this post. Thanks for the advice, I’ll keep them in mind when I set my goals and reset my dfs minset.

  • jv21

    @thedkexperience said...

    I had this happen to me about 3 years ago. I was doing ok … cashing sometimes, staying reasonably afloat, not embarrassing myself but also not actually, you know, making money.

    At that point I made 2 big changes to fix leaks.

    - I started entering almost all single entry tournaments.

    - I stopped playing cash games almost entirely.

    I know the draw back … bUt YOuLl NevEr wIn MILlIoNz!!! Well reality check, if I can’t beat 500 people in a single entry using my best lineup I’m not gonna beat 150,000 people using my 127th best lineup either.

    In the past 3 years I’ve had … I think … 10 single entry cashes between roughly $300 and $600 and an a bazillion min cashes. I’ve had outright wins in MLB, NFL and MMA. Unfortunately none in NBA but such is life.

    I’m not a millionaire but at least my favorite hobby has been paying me $1000-$2000 a year now. Most days I don’t even play more than one or two $12 lineups. I also don’t even bother with full slates 99% of the time. Gimme those 2-5 game single entry slates. In those I’ll put my skills against anyone. In anything outside of that range, no thanks.

    Just like in poker often times the biggest decision you make at the table is deciding which table to sit at. I can’t beat Awesomo at his game. If he wants to beat me it’ll be on my terms.

    Yeah I agree with all your points. Game selection is something I have delved into this season for NFL & NBA. There really is a difference in a 150,000 people contest vs a 500 people contest. Something similar, I am starting to believe that only making 1 lineup is correct. I spread myself too thin with multiple lineups and any wins I make, I just break even. With 1 lineup, I did my best.

  • jdtrey

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    JM at Oneweekseason even strongly advocates this stratgey haha.

    Thanks kbarnhill, I always wondered what happened to JM but never looked into it.

    OP – like others have said you really have to figure out what you’re playing DFS for.

    The shot at life changing money is awesome, but not realistic for most of us. If that’s what you’re playing for, it’s either going to be a lot of work to hammer out a process to try and be consistent or you can treat it like the lotto and just throw in one entry to the big GPP each week with minimal research to get some skin in the game.

    Are you playing mainly for fun? Then just pick your favorite plays based on whatever simple process you come up with – don’t dive super deep into articles and research if you’re just doing this as a hobby. And don’t go crazy with entry fees or selecting contests based on prize pool size.

    If you want to see if you can actually make some money at this then you’re going to have to do a deep dive into your own process and see what’s been working and what hasn’t. It’s one of the most time consuming (and seemingly pointless, but it’s not) things you can do but going back and analyzing your lineups vs what won and what top pros played really does pay off if you’re capable of being objective about your own plays.

    As others have mentioned, single entry/3 max are much easier to compete in than 150 max tournaments. The downside is you really have to nail down who you want to play and the prize pools are smaller. The upside is you have a much better chance at cashing/placing highly.

  • thedkexperience

    @jv21 said...

    Yeah I agree with all your points. Game selection is something I have delved into this season for NFL & NBA. There really is a difference in a 150,000 people contest vs a 500 people contest. Something similar, I am starting to believe that only making 1 lineup is correct. I spread myself too thin with multiple lineups and any wins I make, I just break even. With 1 lineup, I did my best.

    My 2 career football wins have been on 2 game slates where I chose like 7 players from one game. So if you do it, make sure not to use it as an excuse to play it safe because “you only have one lineup”. Nah man, play it wild, play it crazy … play it to win. If you miss, whatever, last plays pays the same as the 21st percentile anyway.

    I get near last a lot. It’s quite humbling. But I also win a few times a year shooting for the moon.

    Last piece of advice just for something different, try new sports. In 6 months I’ve gone from a total MMA casual to a rabid MMA bettor who has returned a dumb profit. It just clicked for me.

    I love the NBA but I suck at NBA DFS.

    I love the NFL but simply cannot keep up in a full field.

    I like baseball … usually … sort of … well sometimes I love it but … really … it can be a boring chore. But you know what? I’ve made more money on it than any DFS sport so I play it.

    I don’t watch NASCAR or hockey but I’m planning on playing each more often to see if those sports fit my brain. You don’t actually need to watch the sports. I mean it helps but at the end of the day you don’t need to.

  • Bkbrlr

    Another idea to think of… See which slates fit your liking. I play NFL mainly, but i do branch out into other sports. If NFL has an all day slate that you’re not confident about, possibly do ONLY 12pm or afternoon slates. Same for NBA. Don’t like the 8 game skate,try the 3 game night slate. Plus, it gives you more time to research. Personally I do 1 lineup per slate I enter, so im giving my best. I prefer single entry up to 20 max contests because it seems the money line is lower. Also, check the cash winning percentage. If one contest has a winning percentage of 18 and another at 23, I play the 23% one. I also wait until 1 minute before lock to see which contents are not going to fill so your odds of winning increase more. Just thoughts.

  • synth

    Start tracking your results. Actually tracking them – not just a vague “made money today” or “lost money today”. Break it down via sport and then again via game type. Then shift to what you’re actually good at.

    For example I recently tracked all my data for 2020. I learned that I am atrocious at classic NBA but made money doing NBA Tiers and Showdowns. I spent a lot more money playing Classic during that time period but after logging all the info I’ve shifted to having 2/3 of my play each night be towards Showdowns and Tiers. I’m up money on the NBA this year because of it. And – surprise – I’m still losing money at Classic in 2021.

    Next, focus on better GPPs. For NFL my goal is a tournament that pays 2x entry for a min cash and gives 10th place 10% of 1st place. Since making that shift I have been profitable at NFL as well. Last weekend helped a lot in that but really all we’re trying to do is have a few good weekends each NFL season that makes up for all the losses in the bad weeks. Let’s look at this weekend for instance: I can go to NFL GPP 3 entry max and one of the options is a $5 where min cash is $8, 10th place pays $1k, and 1st place pays $15k. That tournament sucks. Mark it off. Right below it is a smaller $8 3 entry. It has $16 for min cash, first pays $5k, and 10th pays $500/ That tournament is great. Play that instead. It costs a few dollars more but the structure means you’ll cash better when you cash and you can still have a good day without hitting the absolute nuts.

  • jv21

    @synth said...

    Start tracking your results. Actually tracking them – not just a vague “made money today” or “lost money today”. Break it down via sport and then again via game type. Then shift to what you’re actually good at.

    For example I recently tracked all my data for 2020. I learned that I am atrocious at classic NBA but made money doing NBA Tiers and Showdowns. I spent a lot more money playing Classic during that time period but after logging all the info I’ve shifted to having 2/3 of my play each night be towards Showdowns and Tiers. I’m up money on the NBA this year because of it. And – surprise – I’m still losing money at Classic in 2021.

    Next, focus on better GPPs. For NFL my goal is a tournament that pays 2x entry for a min cash and gives 10th place 10% of 1st place. Since making that shift I have been profitable at NFL as well. Last weekend helped a lot in that but really all we’re trying to do is have a few good weekends each NFL season that makes up for all the losses in the bad weeks. Let’s look at this weekend for instance: I can go to NFL GPP 3 entry max and one of the options is a $5 where min cash is $8, 10th place pays $1k, and 1st place pays $15k. That tournament sucks. Mark it off. Right below it is a smaller $8 3 entry. It has $16 for min cash, first pays $5k, and 10th pays $500/ That tournament is great. Play that instead. It costs a few dollars more but the structure means you’ll cash better when you cash and you can still have a good day without hitting the absolute nuts.

    Thanks for the advice. All good info. Yeah I was tracking my results, I was break even or in the red by a little, and that’s part of the reason why I made this post. I was “trying” harder than before and my results were not improving. I took a break but I am back to tracking my results. I agree its important and valuable to do.
    I am doing better now in game selection and agree with your comment on looking at the pay structure. Before, I was to worried about FOMO and missing out on the big one, but they are so hard to win anyways, like 50% of prize pool to 1st and 10th only gets like 1% of 1st. I slowly coming to term to win a little and be happy with a win. A win is a win.

  • jv21

    @Bkbrlr said...

    Another idea to think of… See which slates fit your liking. I play NFL mainly, but i do branch out into other sports. If NFL has an all day slate that you’re not confident about, possibly do ONLY 12pm or afternoon slates. Same for NBA. Don’t like the 8 game skate,try the 3 game night slate. Plus, it gives you more time to research. Personally I do 1 lineup per slate I enter, so im giving my best. I prefer single entry up to 20 max contests because it seems the money line is lower. Also, check the cash winning percentage. If one contest has a winning percentage of 18 and another at 23, I play the 23% one. I also wait until 1 minute before lock to see which contents are not going to fill so your odds of winning increase more. Just thoughts.

    Yeah game selection and slate selection is something I am exploring more into. FOMO was always a big factor in making me playing in the main slates or contest. Now I am slowing focusing more on just getting wins, big or small.

  • skankinmat

    @jv21 said...

    So I have been playing dfs for 5 years now. A lot of ups and down. Lifetime I am down like 10-20%. That’s not too bad for a should be hobby. Every nfl & nba season, I put in some effort to learn how to play dfs. I spend hours reading articles, watching shows and listening videos.

    This nfl season I am down. So far NBA has not been great. I think part of my problem is that these years of experience I have built up have really been a negative. (Beyond the basic stuff like who players are, how sites are structured and why news matter)

    In NFL, I try to stack a QB with their pass catchers and possibly a bring back. Every week I pick wrong and the winning lineup is a some thing like a QB/RB/WR stack or some combination that I would never do causes it’s neg correlation, etc. Like this knowledge I have learned that is holding me back. I am sure most of you have seen the meme of having a losing week but being happy that you built an +EV lineup. In NBA, there so many blowouts and non blowouts, that any opinions I have of teams and players is just wrong.

    There’s a story that I like to reflect on when I lose was a years ago I heard about a group of friends who stacked the Saints every week for the season. During one of the week they hit and won a qualifier to the WFFC or something. As a Viking fan, if I just did that all season, I would probably be up. But as someone who knows “dfs” that’s not really a strategy I have seen endorsed.

    Anyone have suggestions on resetting my mindset how to play dfs? Sometimes I just want to go back to being a casual, have that beginners luck, play my favorites play with no worries of being +EV or making the “right” decisions.

    Try switching to 3 max or single entry contests. It will force you to focus on what you feel are the best plays on the slate and way easier to evaluate where your process went right/wrong. If you’re firing a few lineups in the big GPPs against people playing 150MME then you’re more often than not going to be on the losing end most nights.

  • Yombo

    agree with SE or 3 max contests, but I’ll take it a step further. Play the smallest contests you can at the highest price points you can afford. When I have time to focus on a slate, I’ll enter mostly everything right before lock and yeah sometimes I’ll enter an 11 man or 14 man 50 or something, but when my lineup is good, I’ll basically win that and the contests are far more giving. I’ll also reg a whole bunch of contests right before lock that are far smaller and the win equity of first is way higher. These are available at every dollar amount like a 74 man 4 dollar up to 11 person 150 dollar. I’ve had a lot more big days this way, even if I’m capitated on what I can win on a slate. If you’re worried you’ll hit the stones and not have it in a lotto then enter a few of the large field while youre at it. Today I played six from POR/ATL and put up 318. That was a good enough to take first in most of what I entered. Also correlate the hell out of whatever you’re playing, the game needs too much luck as is, you might as well max it out whenever you have a good fortune. You’re most likely never gonna win a lotto as is, but you can 8x or 10x your buy in on the day your team is pretty good. Also there are 40 dollar 29 mans where top 8 cash and stuff or 37 man top 9 cash where you have over like 24-26% chance of cashing on top of the small field.

    In the smaller fields, also the chalk is more concentrated so there’s greater leverage on it failing than in the lottos. While I thought some guys are bad plays and they run good, other popular plays sometimes run bad (Tony Bradley tonight for example). When he’s the most owned player in many of the fields, you can gain a very big advantage on people.

  • depalma13

    @jv21 said...

    This nfl season I am down.

    You have a 1st, 2nd and 5th in gpps of over 200,000 entries this NFL season and you are down?

    You need to start by figuring out where you are pissing your money away before you even consider what kind of builds you are making.

  • PigskinaBlanket

    • 415

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #82

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • x3

      2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • x2

      2016 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    Honestly, the best thing I can tell you is to not be a sheep. I mean that that in the best way. Use the guidance na dprojections from services like RG – as just that – a guide. But, in the end give the each slate your own perspective on it plays out. Trying to beat the masses with 75% all looking at the slate the way a certain set of touts told you to look at the slate is really hard to do.

    Also, embrace variance. Nelson Adcock (I think) posted some. stuff on twitter showing the downswings for the best players. Brutal. So expect them and make sure you are playing at a level your bankroll can sustain.

    Remember to enjoy the sweat. In a position for a potential score is the key. One rebound or pass faling through someones hands – doesnt mean you had a bad lineup but were just unlucky.

    Finally, game selection. If your only trying to win the milly each week – I think you are doing it wrong (imo). Understand the type of lineups you like to build and the formats that best work for you. I need to heed this advice myself as I got astray in game selection this NFL season. Study your results. Know where you have the best chance of success.

    You got this man.

  • jv21

    @depalma13 said...

    You have a 1st, 2nd and 5th in gpps of over 200,00 entries this NFL season and you are down?

    You need to start by figuring out where you are pissing your money away before you even consider what kind of builds you are making.

    I only had 1 gpp win in 2020. I did over play my bankroll at some points. The win though was in the mini max. $75 for $2000 but I was betting between $150-$200 a slate (played in all the SE under $15). No wins after that and my account went back to 0. This is usually what happens to me, early win leading to many loses and a break even season. I have changed my approach per others advice and I am more conscious of my bankroll and what a win means compares to how much I spend.

  • jv21

    @PigskinaBlanket said...

    Honestly, the best thing I can tell you is to not be a sheep. I mean that that in the best way. Use the guidance na dprojections from services like RG – as just that – a guide. But, in the end give the each slate your own perspective on it plays out. Trying to beat the masses with 75% all looking at the slate the way a certain set of touts told you to look at the slate is really hard to do.

    Also, embrace variance. Nelson Adcock (I think) posted some. stuff on twitter showing the downswings for the best players. Brutal. So expect them and make sure you are playing at a level your bankroll can sustain.

    Remember to enjoy the sweat. In a position for a potential score is the key. One rebound or pass faling through someones hands – doesnt mean you had a bad lineup but were just unlucky.

    Finally, game selection. If your only trying to win the milly each week – I think you are doing it wrong (imo). Understand the type of lineups you like to build and the formats that best work for you. I need to heed this advice myself as I got astray in game selection this NFL season. Study your results. Know where you have the best chance of success.

    You got this man.

    Thanks for the advice. Variance, data and math is something I never thought about much outside of the basics and I am only starting to embrace it and understand it. A weakness of mine I have identified is badly estimating range of outcomes making me play too safe at a detrimental to my EV and limiting my ceiling + value of the players I choose.
    I have seen the Twitter posts about pros. Dfs is hard and I have certainly changed my kid mindset since I made this thread.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).