So I have been playing dfs for 5 years now. A lot of ups and down. Lifetime I am down like 10-20%. That’s not too bad for a should be hobby. Every nfl & nba season, I put in some effort to learn how to play dfs. I spend hours reading articles, watching shows and listening videos.
This nfl season I am down. So far NBA has not been great. I think part of my problem is that these years of experience I have built up have really been a negative. (Beyond the basic stuff like who players are, how sites are structured and why news matter)
In NFL, I try to stack a QB with their pass catchers and possibly a bring back. Every week I pick wrong and the winning lineup is a some thing like a QB/RB/WR stack or some combination that I would never do causes it’s neg correlation, etc. Like this knowledge I have learned that is holding me back. I am sure most of you have seen the meme of having a losing week but being happy that you built an +EV lineup. In NBA, there so many blowouts and non blowouts, that any opinions I have of teams and players is just wrong.
There’s a story that I like to reflect on when I lose was a years ago I heard about a group of friends who stacked the Saints every week for the season. During one of the week they hit and won a qualifier to the WFFC or something. As a Viking fan, if I just did that all season, I would probably be up. But as someone who knows “dfs” that’s not really a strategy I have seen endorsed.
Anyone have suggestions on resetting my mindset how to play dfs? Sometimes I just want to go back to being a casual, have that beginners luck, play my favorites play with no worries of being +EV or making the “right” decisions.