Hello RotoGrinders community!
(Edited to add this note) Grinders: feel free to use this thread to ask me anything about probability, statistics, modeling, programming, etc. Happy to give my thoughts on any relevant topic in the interest of getting some discussion going.
I am pleased to announce a new one-of-a-kind service to the DFS community: personal statistical consulting and software development. It is no secret that some of the top DFS players either have advanced statistical or programming abilities of their own, or have hired data scientists and programmers. My goal is to make these services more accessible.
Why am I doing this? First of all, I find the data-analysis issues surrounding DFS fascinating. I mostly play NFL so I’m looking for a year-round fix. I have been involved in many discussions of DFS strategy over the years; this is a community that is filled with people who have deep probabilistic intuition and complex ideas that they lack the technical skills to implement. I am also raising funds for a (non-fantasy related) sports analytics startup and trying to keep myself busy in the meantime. In general, I love sports analytics and I don’t want to get a real job!
Some examples of services I can provide:
- Automate your tedious daily workflow.
- Implement a model based on your own intuitions and established statistical techniques, train it on historical data, and set it up to continue improving with more data.
- Implement your own lineup construction strategy. Examples:
- constraints you would like to use but no sites offer,
- optimizing over multiple entries
- optimizing only the unlocked positions in a late swap contest
- Statistical analysis of your personal results. E.g.:
- confidence interval around your ROI
- simulations of different bankroll management choices
- optimization of contest selection
- Support for staking operations, for example developing a dashboard for your stakers to track results.
- Backtesting your DFS strategy.
- Upgrade from Excel to professional data analysis tools.
- Personal instruction in statistics and/or statistical programming.
These are just some ideas; with access to the right data, anything is possible.† You are my ideal client if you are already a RG premium subscriber, but you have a time-consuming process you would like to speed up, or big ideas that you don’t know how to achieve on your own. Just to be clear, I am not offering any particular data, content, or strategy advice. I am not selling my own methodology, rather I am offering professional assistance with your personal methodology.
I will charge a simple hourly rate that is negotiable based on the project (although I could be open to other arrangements). PM me to discuss the possibilities; obviously, there is no charge for initial consultation. References are available on request.
About me: I have been playing DFS since 2014 (almost entirely NFL). Since 2015 I have been mass entering lineups, I am not ashamed to admit. I have made every mistake you can think of: accidentally duplicating lineups, not replacing dummy lineups because of last-minute CSV issues, missing players because their name was spelled differently in my projections, etc. I have put a lot of thought not only into lineup construction and DFS strategy, but also these basic technical problems and how to avoid them. In 2016, I made a 5-figure DFS profit; in 2017 I attended the DK NFL live final and over the year profited low 6 figures.
In 2017 I also completed a Ph.D. in Psychology. In particular I studied (roughly speaking) how the brain controls movement. My research developed new ways of analyzing human movement data (i.e. the kind of data they use for NFL Next Gen Stats). I am proficient in Python, R, SQL, and other languages. I have taught undergraduate- and graduate-level courses in statistics and statistical computing. Currently, I work part-time as a researcher in a sports medicine lab, where I help develop training methodologies in virtual and augmented reality and analyze motion-capture data recorded from athletes visiting our lab. I am also involved in the planning stages of a (non-fantasy related) sports analytics startup; we hope to offer advanced analysis of player-tracking data to soccer clubs around the world. Proceeds from the service I am advertising here will help us bootstrap this project.
† Caveat : I will not provide any assistance in circumventing legal restrictions of any jurisdiction or the terms and conditions of any website.
(Although I did receive permission to make this post, I want to make it clear that this service is offered by myself personally and has no official relationship with RotoGrinders)