STRATEGY FORUM

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  • skleni

    Monterrey and Lyon for the ladies this week.

  • LegiaWwa

    Very glad to see DK do two slates. But the pricing for the Asian tourneys sucks. Only two players in the $8k range so you gotta go heavy underdog or toss up

  • dw12290

    Lowest I’m going in the early slate is Putintseva at $6,600. I think Rublev is a must play for the points so I’ve got him too. I’ve got a nice lineup bit I always think that only to fall apart early.

  • dw12290

    I did 2 Overhead LU’s this morning, 1 Line Painter and a few Ace LU’s this afternoon. If my lineups get ruined by withdrawals or retirements I’m done with tennis.

    Bertens 35.9%
    Harris 28.2%
    Martincova 29.1%
    Putintseva 10.9%
    Rublev 46.4%
    Swiatek 44.9%

    Bertens 35.9%
    Goerges 30.1%
    Su-Wei Hsieh 35.5%
    Putintseva 10.9%
    Rublev 46.4%
    Vekic 17.9%

  • LegiaWwa

    Pavlyuchenkova withdraws. There goes one of my 2 lineups 29.76% owned

  • dw12290

    @LegiaWwa said...

    Pavlyuchenkova withdraws. There goes one of my 2 lineups 29.76% owned

    I hate when that happens and DK’s really needs to add the late swap to Tennis. Thankfully I didn’t have her in any of my LU’s but I do have Putintseva in 3 of mine so I’m not sure if she plays someone else or just gets the points. smh

  • LegiaWwa

    @dw12290 said...

    I hate when that happens and DK’s really needs to add the late swap to Tennis. Thankfully I didn’t have her in any of my LU’s but I do have Putintseva in 3 of mine so I’m not sure if she plays someone else or just gets the points. smh

    Putinseva now plays Babos. Goes from a +150 dog to a -333 favorite

  • Ndepompei

    @LegiaWwa said...

    Pavlyuchenkova withdraws. There goes one of my 2 lineups 29.76% owned

    She’s about 70% in double ups so I’m hoping I can at least scrape those out

  • dw12290

    @LegiaWwa said...

    Putinseva now plays Babos. Goes from a +150 dog to a -333 favorite

    With my luck these days she will lose.

  • dw12290

    Won back what I spent in the early games and now need to get things right for the late games.

    I like Norrie, Wawrinka and Kecmanovic because De Minaur hasn’t played this year.

    Was going to take Maria until I dove into the stats but Bouzkova is 2-1 in H2H back in 2014 and Maria’s only win against her was in 2014. Bouzkova beat Maria 6-0 6-1 in 2017 and they haven’t played against each other since.

    They have the same win/loss record over last 10 matches dating back to 2019 and same win/loss record in 2020.

    Maria is 6-4 over her last 10 matches and 5-4 this year
    Bouzkova is also 6-4 over her last 10 matches and 5-4 this year

    I think I have to take Bouzkova because the H2H records the last 2 matches Maria hung in there for the 1st set and then got crushed 6-1 in the second set both times. Maybe if Maria won the 1st set she wouldn’t fall apart in the 2nd but not sure I can rely on that. Of course all of this goes against my rule of “The more you know the more you lose” so I probably shouldn’t be doing this research.

    Feel like I wrote a small book.

    Good luck everyone!

  • MUwarriors91

    • 426

      RG Overall Ranking

    I am playing the afternoon slate very light today. Way too many low level matchups here and I do not have a great take. But the good news is that there may not be a single withdrawal unless de Minaur decides to not give it a go. (knock on wood)

  • MUwarriors91

    • 426

      RG Overall Ranking

    For example, Giron is an outrageous 11K. His opponent, Villasenor, played Steve Johnson tight at this same tournament last year in front of a home crowd.

    I’d be heavy on Kalinskaya but she really hasn’t played at all this year and she deleted her instagram account. No clue what is going on there. With that said social media is a great way to follow these players but not a foolproof method to avoid withdrawals as these players show up to the venue only to decide to withdraw minutes before the match.

    Heather Watson should beat Coco but who knows if Coco has been slowly returning to form since the AO.

    I think if you get the mid-range right you win the slate today. I think this is a day to go balanced.

  • dw12290

    @MUwarriors91 said...

    I am playing the afternoon slate very light today. Way too many low level matchups here and I do not have a great take. But the good news is that there may not be a single withdrawal unless de Minaur decides to not give it a go. (knock on wood)

    I’m going with 1 Line Painter and 6 Ace lineups. I want to do a 2nd Line Painter but like you I don’t have a good take on this one so I’ll just stay away from doing more than 1 Line Painter. The Ace is a little different at $1 each so 6 lineups doesn’t really break the bankroll.

  • Joda

    • 228

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #46

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @dw12290 said...

    Was going to take Maria until I dove into the stats but Bouzkova is 2-1 in H2H back in 2014 and Maria’s only win against her was in 2014. Bouzkova beat Maria 6-0 6-1 in 2017 and they haven’t played against each other since.

    They have the same win/loss record over last 10 matches dating back to 2019 and same win/loss record in 2020.

    Maria is 6-4 over her last 10 matches and 5-4 this year
    Bouzkova is also 6-4 over her last 10 matches and 5-4 this year

    I think I have to take Bouzkova because the H2H records the last 2 matches Maria hung in there for the 1st set and then got crushed 6-1 in the second set both times. Maybe if Maria won the 1st set she wouldn’t fall apart in the 2nd but not sure I can rely on that. Of course all of this goes against my rule of “The more you know the more you lose” so I probably shouldn’t be doing this research.

    You might want to double check their H2H again, as you are way off here.

  • dw12290

    @Joda said...

    You might want to double check their H2H again, as you are way off here.

    Got the info from here.

    http://www.stevegtennis.com/head-to-head/women/Tatjana_Maria/Marie_Bouzkova/

  • MUwarriors91

    • 426

      RG Overall Ranking

    @dw12290 said...

    Got the info from here.

    Maria leads the H2H 2-0 but they haven’t played since 2017. Bouzkova was just 18 at the time. Maria is trash now and Bouzkova is an up and coming star

  • dw12290

    @MUwarriors91 said...

    Maria leads the H2H 2-0 but they haven’t played since 2017. Bouzkova was just 18 at the time. Maria is trash now and Bouzkova is an up and coming star

    Yea that much I know and that’s why I’m taking Bouzkova.

  • Joda

    • 228

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #46

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @dw12290 said...

    Got the info from here.

    http://www.stevegtennis.com/head-to-head/women/Tatjana_Maria/Marie_Bouzkova/

    Stevegtennis.com is wrong. Maria is 3-0 against Bouzkova at the tour level. The last meeting came in 2017 in Hamburg where Maria beat Bouzkova 6-0, 6-1.

    Even with the poor H2H, Bouzkova should roll Maria today.

  • hoops58

    @dw12290 said...

    Kecmanovic because De Minaur hasn’t played this year

    Actually, De Minaur has played 4 matches this year in the ATP Cup. Beat Zeverev and Shapovalov…..lost to Evans and Nadal. All were tough 3 setters which took its toll on his body. He is 1-0 vs Kecmanovic H2H. I think he will be fine and should be slightly favored.

  • dw12290

    I’m just filled with bad info today. My apologies to everyone.

  • LegiaWwa

    My non-Pavlyuchenkova lineup actually finished 6th in the OverHead this morning, so I got that going for me.

    I agree that I’m not a fan of this afternoon slate either. Only playing one lineup. I know nothing about The matches between these lower-level women, they could go either way, might as well just flip a coin for each.

  • skleni

    @MUwarriors91 said...

    For example, Giron is an outrageous 11K. His opponent, Villasenor, played Steve Johnson tight at this same tournament last year in front of a home crowd.

    If I remember correctly, that was a very windy day and Johnson played like a college player in that match

  • Kassdog

    I might have to add a couple more line painter lines. 1200 spots lift with less than an hour.

  • LegiaWwa

    Wawrinka 63% owned in the Line Painter

  • skleni

    Norrie imploding….

  • Faucher

    • Blogger of the Month

    After having no women’s matches last week, forgot about how some of these matches can result in nothing but double fault fests

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