STRATEGY FORUM

Comments

  • LegiaWwa

    Waiting on DK to post salaries, the draw and schedule has been up for awhile.

  • Jenesaisblah

    @JSteele said...

    Fair enough. I think it depends on a lot on the slate. I think if you have a good feel for the upsets that could occur on the slate, you can fit those top tier players in. I’ll usually look at it opposite that you do and start from the bottom up and determine my favourite upset plays first. If I can find lots i’ll have a top tier player and if not i’ll go balanced.

    I’ve been riding Albot as a very cheap player this whole year. It’s worked out well.

  • Billychurch

    Lmao… I punted Sharapova in a couple LUs. Final DK points: 8.85
    Watched the whole match and she got rocked

  • JSteele

    @Jenesaisblah said...

    I’ve been riding Albot as a very cheap player this whole year. It’s worked out well.

    Me too, and Nishioka as well during this hard court swing. Although today I didn’t play him.

  • Jenesaisblah

    @JSteele said...

    Me too, and Nishioka as well during this hard court swing. Although today I didn’t play him.

    Good on the people who played Nishioka today, hope it helps them win big.

  • Yeoman

    @MotownGreek said...

    Tennis is, I believe so don’t quote me on this, the #3 bet on sport worldwide. So with that said, yes, the lines are very important. It’s a lot harder to make money from a sportsbook perspective on tennis because the odds makers usually know what they’re doing.

    The point I’m making is why spend $1k more in salary for a player that is going to give you at best 10pts above her replacement?

    If I’m not mistaken, you’re the only frequent contributor to this forum who plays strictly cash. A lot of us are strictly tournament players and it shouldn’t be any surprise that our strategies differ.

    The only reason I pay any attention to the betting lines at all is to find out who’s the likely chalk. There are a fair number of players who head straight for the biggest Vegas/DK discrepancies; if I can put together a lineup I like that avoids those plays, I have a leg up.

    That’s certainly not the only possible approach, but it’s worked well for me.

  • JSteele

    @Yeoman said...

    If I’m not mistaken, you’re the only frequent contributor to this forum who plays strictly cash. A lot of us are strictly tournament players and it shouldn’t be any surprise that our strategies differ.

    The only reason I pay any attention to the betting lines at all is to find out who’s the likely chalk. There are a fair number of players who head straight for the biggest Vegas/DK discrepancies; if I can put together a lineup I like that avoids those plays, I have a leg up.

    That’s certainly not the only possible approach, but it’s worked well for me.

    I like this approach too. I make a spreadsheet every morning that includes the court specific ELO rankings and points defending. I’ll calculate the difference in ELO ranking to determine who the better players are. I’ll look at the lines after that to see if they match up or if they have discrepancies. That is usually how I find my value plays (Pablo had a higher ELO than Isner yesterday). Later in the week, the matches are generally closer in terms of skill, so its harder to find those plays.

    Today, I believe my spreadsheet had Medvedev as the largest ELO difference.

  • MotownGreek

    @Yeoman said...

    If I’m not mistaken, you’re the only frequent contributor to this forum who plays strictly cash. A lot of us are strictly tournament players and it shouldn’t be any surprise that our strategies differ.

    I think that’s accurate. I like to point out I’m a cash player so others can expand their game and hopefully win more money. Same reason I ask questions of why people play certain players, to better my gpp game…because it’s not good!!

  • Yeoman

    @JSteele said...

    Fair enough. I think it depends on a lot on the slate. I think if you have a good feel for the upsets that could occur on the slate, you can fit those top tier players in. I’ll usually look at it opposite that you do and start from the bottom up and determine my favourite upset plays first. If I can find lots i’ll have a top tier player and if not i’ll go balanced.

    That’s how it worked for me today—I knew I was going to play Sabalenka and Yastremska, there was a fair bit of value I liked, and I wasn’t really confident in the range between Sabalenka and Pliskova. She fit, so I played her.

    And she wasn’t highly owned at all, nothing like what we typically see with the top three men.

  • Jenesaisblah

    Well of all the players in my pool I didn’t see Wawrinka being the one to kill my lineups. Welcome to DFS Tennis.

  • Billychurch

    @Jenesaisblah said...

    Well of all the players in my pool I didn’t see Wawrinka being the one to kill my lineups. Welcome to DFS Tennis.

    Wawrinka barely got through Dimitrov in R1, despite beating him a few times this year already. I saw some of the match and he looked tired and struggled. Went for Rublev in 80% of my LUs.

  • Yeoman

    @MotownGreek said...

    It’s important to note, my approach as a cash player, and the approach for a gpp player should be entirely different. None of those picks are underdogs and that’s key to winning in cash. I chase wins, don’t care if it’s straight set or 3 set with all tie breakers.

    My question is/was, where is the value in playing someone like Pliskova when you have other players that are close to the same odds and at a cheaper cost. If she had a betting line of -1000 and the closest person was -300, then sure, I could argue that she’s the play even at a few hundred more.

    I think that’s exactly the point. You’re chasing wins, as you should as a cash player. As a strictly gpp player, I’m chasing 80+. I want value plays who might win in straights; favorites had better win blowouts. The only player on your list I even considered was Svitolina; she’s the only one of the six I could imagine winning two sets of 6-2 or better.

    I think maybe that’s why you’re looking at winning odds and I’m not. Published odds on a bagel set, that would be of use to me (at least until too many other people started looking at it too). Odds to win, not so much.

    Here’s my lineup at DK if you want to compare:

    Pliskova – 10,900 12.9%
    Yastremska – 9,100 14.0%
    Sabalenka – 8,900 13.3%
    Kudermetova – 7,300 19.2%
    Rublev – 6,700 4.7%
    Kecmanovic – 6,700 10.2%

  • Jenesaisblah

    @Billychurch said...

    Wawrinka barely got through Dimitrov in R1, despite beating him a few times this year already. I saw some of the match and he looked tired and struggled. Went for Rublev in 80% of my LUs.

    Well done.

  • Yeoman

    @Billychurch said...

    I saw some of the match and he looked tired and struggled.

    :)

    There is no substitute for watching the matches.

  • Jenesaisblah

    Why exactly do people play two players from the same game in satellites? I’m not complaining, but come on.

  • benrocket

    Nice choke job Pella

  • MotownGreek

    @Jenesaisblah said...

    Why exactly do people play two players from the same game in satellites? I’m not complaining, but come on.

    It surprisingly happens pretty often, don’t understand it.

  • tristanwolf

    fwiw- fed and joker together were in the winning lu last night. 3 ties for 5.5k each.

  • Billychurch

    Lol just noticed Madison Keys is at 56% in DK Line Painter. Hope she bombs :D

  • Yeoman

    You can all call me crazy if you want…but does Dayana look at all like Carl?

  • JSteele

    Keys is playing very well, but seems to hit it too hard for her own good. If she can control the ball a bit better, she could be winning by a lot more.

  • Joda

    • 230

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #46

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Zverev has 15 double faults through two sets

  • Billychurch

    Mannarino dropped 81.35 at $8600… ungggggg. Top lineups looking like 440-450.

  • Yeoman

    Auger-Aliassime had 10 Monday; I had the impression it was partly because he was going for too much. Maybe it’s Kec.

  • Jenesaisblah

    Shapo channeling his inner Kyrgios today. Very unsportsmanlike.

  • Billychurch

    Trainer called to court for Sasnovich’s knee

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