STRATEGY FORUM

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  • LegiaWwa

    $50,000 to 1st
    $500 to 9th

    46 matches

    Ugh, DK.

    But got some tickets to use, so I gotta play.

  • Yeoman

    @Jenesaisblah said...

    They opened up a second slate FWIW. I’ll make one lineup in the $1.

    48 matches in the first slate, 15 matches in the second slate, 64 matches on the schedule. Which one did they leave out, and why?

  • Jenesaisblah

    I didn’t see Fed. Is Fed playing the first day?

  • Yeoman

    Found it, finally. Golubic/Zhang.

    I guess that’s the very paradigm of the kind of match I’m looking for. DK probably didn’t even notice they’d left it out and it took me almost ten minutes of going through the schedule before I found what was missing. If Zhang was $18 instead of $19 I’d pivot to her at FD, but I can’t quite make it work without messing up something I like better.

  • Yeoman

    @Jenesaisblah said...

    I didn’t see Fed. Is Fed playing the first day?

    On the Ashe night session after Serena/Sharapova.

  • Jenesaisblah

    @Yeoman said...

    On the Ashe night session after Serena/Sharapova.

    Didn’t even see him. Yep. The afteroon slate.

  • MotownGreek

    @Jenesaisblah said...

    The most tilting dfs sport.

    I find Tennis to be one of the least tilting sports! It’s by far the easiest sport to be profitable in. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, start playing more cash especially for tennis. Softest sport on DK right now when it comes to cash. GPPs are a crapshoot, to take one down you have to go 6/6 with mostly 2-0 wins, especially for a slate like tomorrows.

  • JSteele

    @Yeoman said...

    He didn’t play all that well though—beat two 50-year-olds (just kidding, but when Tommy Robredo turned pro, Majchrzak was two years old) and then lost in straights to Ivashka.

    Same price as Jarry: Zidansek, Darcis, Stosur, Bolkvadze, Brooksby, Dolehide, Djere, Barrere. Your group’s in the $11-13 range.

    Yea Jarry definitely doesn’t belong in that group. Ivashka can be solid but Jarry is a similar type player. Hard hitter, kind of tall. I’ve found that some of these plays no matter the expected ownership at the lower price points are generally locks.

    On DK there isn’t much value. I kind of like Kohlschreiber, Sasnovich, kasatkina and Hon. maybe even a touch of Bouchard, she had a good run last year but she also wasn’t garbage going into the US Open last year. I do like a good amount of Sakkari, Norrie, Alexandrova, and Berdych. I think picking on the wildcards and players who haven’t hit the hard courts will be key to finding those 6-0 6-1 type of matches

  • gje627

    No right to post here ….

    Because I have Zero Clue ….

    But, tried my hand at researching tennis today ….

    Based on salary and upside ….

    Guaranteed my Top 10 are all under 5% owned tomorrow.

    Think I failed miserably.

    But here they are !!!

    01. Viktoria Kuzmova
    02. Caroline Garcia
    03. Venus Williams
    04. Karolina Muchova
    05. Cristian Garin
    06. Daniil Medvedev
    07. Daniel Evans
    08. Cameron Norrie
    09. Reilly Opelka
    10. Rebecca Peterson

    A little help? :)

  • Yeoman

    @JSteele said...

    I think picking on the wildcards

    Wish I could play Lorenzi. I’d even pay Anderson’s price for the privilege.

    Other than that one, most of the men’s wildcards went to decent players and I don’t see a lot there to target, especially tomorrow. There are a couple on the women’s side I might have a go at. And my lineups tend to have at least one qualifier if I can find someone that’s gotten up a head of steam, like Kecmanovic did here. I guess it’s the same principle as picking one of the Dayton play-in game winners in the first round of an NCAA bracket.

    The way things are looking so far, I’m going to completely avoid all chalk on both sites on the main slates, which means I’ll finish solo last. And I dropped $1 lineups in the late slates but they’re so chalky I’ll probably finish in a massive tie and win $1.02.

  • Jenesaisblah

    @MotownGreek said...

    I find Tennis to be one of the least tilting sports! It’s by far the easiest sport to be profitable in. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, start playing more cash especially for tennis. Softest sport on DK right now when it comes to cash. GPPs are a crapshoot, to take one down you have to go 6/6 with mostly 2-0 wins, especially for a slate like tomorrows.

    Yeah, I never ever play cash. But it’s definitely tilting to me. Can’t tell you how many times one of my players were well on their way to winning, dominating the match only to find out later that they lost most of the other games.

  • Yeoman

    @gje627 said...

    No right to post here ….

    Because I have Zero Clue ….

    But, tried my hand at researching tennis today ….

    Based on salary and upside ….

    Guaranteed my Top 10 are all under 5% owned tomorrow.

    Think I failed miserably.

    But here they are !!!

    01. Viktoria Kuzmova
    02. Caroline Garcia
    03. Venus Williams
    04. Karolina Muchova
    05. Cristian Garin
    06. Daniil Medvedev
    07. Daniel Evans
    08. Cameron Norrie
    09. Reilly Opelka
    10. Rebecca Peterson

    A little help? :)

    If being clueless means you can’t post here I guess we’re all going home. :)

    Nothing wrong with the picks (although I hate playing big servers like Opelka in tournaments because the lack of breaks kills their ceiling, but I’m in a minority there) but I think you’ll be surprised when ownership comes out—I’m guessing at least four of your ten will be over 5% and at least one will be well into double digits.

  • gje627

    @Yeoman said...

    If being clueless means you can’t post here I guess we’re all going home. :)

    Nothing wrong with the picks (although I hate playing big servers like Opelka in tournaments because the lack of breaks kills their ceiling, but I’m in a minority there) but I think you’ll be surprised when ownership comes out—I’m guessing at least four of your ten will be over 5% and at least one will be well into double digits.

    Thanks !!!

    That’s encouraging !!!

    Particularly since you seem to know what you’re talking about. :)

    Rather than take the field as a whole, what I did was wrote a quick algorithm where I played each match one-by-one.

    The major variables were salary v. upside, non-weighted based on a very rudimentary probability distribution table I constructed and then I did Monte Carlo simulations on each match and ran 3,000 times. Based on the numbers and salary and DK scoring, this is what turned-out to be my Top 10.

    Probably a stupid way to analyze, but it was fun to play with the numbers.

    Think I’ll refine a bit in the morning, then try again.

  • Sinthetix

    • 749

      RG Overall Ranking

    Thanks for the list. Interested to see what you come up with tomorrow. I have a bunch of Muchova and may go all in. I would not be shocked if Garcia & Evans were sub 5% owned. Garcia is in very poor form and Evans (relatively unpopular) faces Mannarino who is somewhat of a fantasy darling. Seeing him as a dog should boost his ownership.

  • JH822547

    So glad the Raonic match isn’t on the main slate, would have been a pain in the arse.

    Starting to like Jabeur over an out of form Garcia.

  • skleni

    I like Brooksby and Donskoy today…

  • jackinthebox

    FD’s Smash is half the price of DK’s, has a much better pay structure, includes all the matches and looks like its going to overlay pretty badly. Just sayin

  • BadAtBetting

    Anybody paying up for Djokovic? If he’s under 15% I want him but I have a feeling he’ll be something like 35 or more somehow which isn’t worth it

  • JSteele

    @BadAtBetting said...

    Anybody paying up for Djokovic? If he’s under 15% I want him but I have a feeling he’ll be something like 35 or more somehow which isn’t worth it

    I’m not. I don’t think he will score better than say a Svitolina or even Berdych/Pera at a lot less of a price point.

  • Ndepompei

    @jackinthebox said...

    FD’s Smash is half the price of DK’s, has a much better pay structure, includes all the matches and looks like its going to overlay pretty badly. Just sayin

    FD just sent me a voucher for that

  • sox9

    @jackinthebox said...

    FD’s Smash is half the price of DK’s, has a much better pay structure, includes all the matches and looks like its going to overlay pretty badly. Just sayin

    Nah, it will nearly fill as everyone is holding back for withdrawal announcements pre-tournament. The addiction to gambling is too strong for many players who will just about bet on anything—-even when they are relatively unknowledgeable about the sport. It’s only 11,000 entries on FD. You telling me there are not 11,000 average Joes who will forego the morning latte to plunk down less than $8 on a Grand Slam event for a little fun—-like buying a lottery ticket w/about the same odds. It will probably fill minutes before 11:00.

  • sox9

    @sox9 said...

    Nah, it will nearly fill as everyone is holding back for withdrawal announcements pre-tournament. The addiction to gambling is too strong for many players who will just about bet on anything—-even when they are relatively unknowledgeable about the sport. It’s only 11,000 entries on FD. You telling me there are not 11,000 average Joes who will forego the morning latte to plunk down less than $8 on a Grand Slam event for a little fun—-like buying a lottery ticket w/about the same odds. It will probably fill minutes before 11:00.

    Even the Sunday $ million entry for NFL tends to fill and it has nearly a half million entries.

  • sox9

    Sometimes you can pick off smaller entries that not everyone wants to bother with just before lock, and especially satellites w/some overlay—-if that’s your thing. A huge chunk of the smash will be guys just playing tickets they won—-me included—- I have two. Maybe I’ll skip the morning latte and buy a third—-for fun.

  • Jenesaisblah

    @JSteele said...

    I’m not. I don’t think he will score better than say a Svitolina or even Berdych/Pera at a lot less of a price point.

    I stayed off svitolina because her opponent has beaten Osaka and had taken Andreescu to three sets.

  • Sinthetix

    • 749

      RG Overall Ranking

    @Jenesaisblah said...

    I stayed off svitolina because her opponent has beaten Osaka and had taken Andreescu to three sets.

    That was a different Osaka.

  • Jenesaisblah

    @Sinthetix said...

    That was a different Osaka.

    Still feels like a three set to me

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