STRATEGY FORUM

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  • skleni

    Tomorrow the tournaments in Washington (ATP and WTA, hard), Los Cabos (ATP, hard), Kitzbühel (ATP, clay) and San Jose (WTA, hard) get underway.
    The week on dk starts with a 50k Line Painter (last week the contest on Monday was 40k, really excited to see DFS Tennis grow week by week).

    Good luck to you all!

  • dw12290

    Yea weather is going to be an issue today. 80% chance starting about 3pm so I may just sit out today.

  • Willllsy

    Polmanz probably the cheapest player i’ll have shares of today. Kenin and anderson are projecting extremely high for me as expensive tier plays. Went 6/6 yesterday all straight sets wins 446 only good for 21st in the $15. Todays slate i see playing differently with 430ish probably taking it down.

  • JSteele

    You can make a very nice lineup with either construction. Theres a lot of solid plays in the mid range. You can also go relatively cheap with a guy like Nishioka again. He gets to play Goffin who is prone to let down games and also hasn’t played since Wimbledon. Nishioka played well against Evans and will be used to the surface whereas Goffin may have a bit of a slow start. I could see this being a 6-4, 7-5 type of game in favour of Nishioka. At their price I think Isner and Opelka make a lot of sense today. Hurkacz and FAA are tough opponents but they have also been unable to win against powerful. Hurkacz lost to Karlovic 3-1 in the Australian Open and FAA has lost to Isner and Eubanks in straight sets. Isner also has done relatively well on home soil. I can see both of these guys having around 18-20 aces and winning in straight sets. Isner is 8300 and Opelka is 7800.

    Mladenovic is also too cheap. It’s very difficult to string together more than 1 upset for these low ranking players. You could really make an argument for every player in that price range. I like Puig, Kecmanovic, Jordan Thompson. Going up a price point, you have Tsitsipas, De Minaur, Kenin, Anderson, and Svitolina.

    Lots of different ways to go here so. I’m taking 2 lineups, one balanced, one stars and scrubs. No need to go above Tsitsipas today.

  • Willllsy

    I don’t think isner and opelka are must plays in any facet considering their expected high ownership. There are people around them that project similar if not better. If i go to one of them it would be Isner. To me, the Opelka match feels like a 3 setter. I think isner can win in straight sets and get you 70-75 points. I dont see both being in the optimal given their respective chances to win and their opponents capable of winning a set or potentially the match.

    Also, I wouldn’t overthink playing Mladenovic. I’ll have her in most of my lineups. She should be about 1200 more expensive. Clear misprice.

  • JSteele

    I think no one in tennis is a must play. The scoring is so similar there will be a number of players scoring 70-74 points today. If those guys do win in straights the aces and bonus will put them up there

  • MotownGreek

    @Willllsy said...

    Also, I wouldn’t overthink playing Mladenovic. I’ll have her in most of my lineups. She should be about 1200 more expensive. Clear misprice.

    Completely agree. I play mostly cash so I’ll most likely be rostering her but don’t know if she’s optimal in gpp. I expect high ownership today. She could easily have been 9300-9500. Also think De Minaur is mispriced, he should have been closer to 10k. I expect these two to be highly owned in cash today.

  • Willllsy

    To your point though given that anyone can win, ownership needs to factor in. For example, if kecmanovic and isner have equal chances of winning but kecmanovic is going to be 15% owned and isner 50%. The leverage your getting by playing kec Is golden. Even if isner wins with 24 aces 6 double faults thats 3.6 dk points if kec has 6 aces 2 double faults thats .4 dk points. Add in the ace bonus and isner has 4.2 more dk points than kec. But you sacrificed so much leverage for possibly 4 more dk points. Don’t understand why that would be a better idea than getting ahead of a lot of the field if isner lost and kec won. Imo ownership factored in with chances of winning trump aces.

  • JSteele

    Anyone taking a shot on the better Coco? She looked good against Bouzkova, but Sabalenka is a lot more difficult of a matchup. She has beaten her before in her prime though.

  • Extravaganza

    I have Coco as one of my dog picks. She looked surprisingly sharp last match and Sabalenka really hasn’t played since a poor Wimbledon showing, so there’s a pretty good upset angle going.

  • JSteele

    @Extravaganza said...

    I have Coco as one of my dog picks. She looked surprisingly sharp last match and Sabalenka really hasn’t played since a poor Wimbledon showing, so there’s a pretty good upset angle going.

    I threw her in one. She has been practicing in full for about a month before this tournament. It seems like a lot of players who haven’t played since Wimbledon have struggled out of the gate. Especially when playing against someone with some recent hard court play.

    I’m looking at Goffin, Sabelenka, and Felix to struggle today. The other matches that fit that criteria are somewhat one-sided like Raonic, Tsitsipas, and Svitolina. I suppose Paire and Struff could struggle coming over from the clay court tournament in Hamburg as well.

  • gvn2fly1421

    It’s funny, the FD slate is all Washington matches. After rain probably washes out most of today I am guessing tomorrows will be majority other tournaments.

  • dw12290

    I’m going as low as Baptiste today but I think I have to much Puig and Isner.

  • tprokopenko

    Did Kevin Anderson withdraw? Threw Mannarino in last minute to take advantage of playing a Lucky Loser if that is indeed the case. Hope the info is correct lol

  • Faucher

    • Blogger of the Month

    @tprokopenko said...

    Did Kevin Anderson withdraw? Threw Mannarino in last minute to take advantage of playing a Lucky Loser if that is indeed the case. Hope the info is correct lol

    Anderson 30% in the $15 too, ouch

  • Faucher

    • Blogger of the Month

    Mannarino will play LL Gombos now

  • sportsnut11

    @Faucher said...

    Anderson 30% in the $15 too, ouch

    Also bullshit you can’t change him out. When did the news come out because I didn’t see anyone in here say anything about it.

  • Mikeybaywatch

    Lol nice. I love the late withdrawal. There goes some more of my $$$$

  • Mikeybaywatch

    @sportsnut11 said...

    Also bullshit you can’t change him out. When did the news come out because I didn’t see anyone in here say anything about it.

    This 1000%

  • MotownGreek

    @sportsnut11 said...

    Also bullshit you can’t change him out. When did the news come out because I didn’t see anyone in here say anything about it.

    Curious on this as well. Anderson seems to be heavily owned today in cash, many of my opponents in h2h’s rostered Anderson.

  • MUwarriors91

    • 172

      RG Overall Ranking

    He did in fact withdraw. Not enough time to rotate him out of all my lineups before the lock. He is about 30% owned across all contests. Annoying since no games started for 10 minutes after the lock. DK needs to do something about it

  • Faucher

    • Blogger of the Month

    I found out about 1:02 but think info was out a couple mins before lock

  • bure10

    Common. I got both LUs with him.

  • sportsnut11

    @Faucher said...

    I found out about 1:02 but think info was out a couple mins before lock

    Even so, most people won’t be able to change that out. Unfortunately this isn’t like a main sport in the US when news drops and people catch wind an hour or so before the game goes off. Either way wouldn’t matter because if you bitch to DK they will just come up with some lame duck excuse and perhaps give you some crowns.

  • MUwarriors91

    • 172

      RG Overall Ranking

    Came out a minute before lock. Nearly impossible to post on here and switch all lineups accordingly. Always best to play light for the first rounds of non-slam tournaments for this exact issue. Cannot count how many times I’ve been screwed going all in or heavy on a top favorite that withdraws

  • gvn2fly1421

    Nice to see Swiatek took today off…

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