PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: April 11-14

    Where: Augusta, Georgia

    Course: Augusta National – A par 72 course, playing at 7445 yards.

    Cut Rules: Top 50 + ties AND anyone who is within 10 strokes of the leader. (There is no MDF here)

    Field Size: Will be around 90 golfers.

    Last Year’s Winner: Patrick Reed (-15)

    Last Year’s Cut: +5 (53 golfers made it through)

    Live Coverage:
    **Masters.com
    **DirecTV channels 701-705
    **CBS
    **ESPN on Thurs & Fri
    Shot-tracker: Masters.com (not on pgatour.com)

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • jstevens2k11

    Also noticed they took the $20 3-entry max to $15…

  • jstevens2k11

    @BIF said...

    You keep beating me to it by a few seconds 😂

  • byo34

    @jstevens2k11 said...

    Also noticed they took the $20 3-entry max to $15…

    I think they did it just so they could keep their theme up of naming contests after holes at the Masters. Firethorn = hole 15 = $15, Golden Bell = hole 12 = $12 and so on.

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @mgravity said...

    So you do not think anyone under $7000 can top 5? Half the field. So you are going to take half of the top half and make 60 or 70 LUs…Interesting!

    I mean you are completely misinterpreting what I am saying. Not sure it’s worth getting in to it.

    Didnt say at all I wasn’t using under 7k guys.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Long post….DK has changed pricing this year for the Masters, it’s not SOFT! I have listened to several podcasts and they keep mentioning soft pricing. I have only heard one podcast that has caught on, daily roto.

    For lineup construction if you don’t have two players under 10% owned at less than 8k you will not have a T50 lineup in big gpp’s. You can have 2-3 players over 20%, 1-2 12-17% but you need two under 10%. Over the last two years the chalk players that have been in the best lineups all came at 8k and above. In the best lineups no player was under 7k. That could change this year due to the pricing changes.

    Below is some info I have uncovered so far for the Masters this year. You will hear the soft pricing phrase quite often BUT if you dig deep you will see that DK is really not pricing softly this year. Below are some pricing, ownership, points Info based on last two years.

    Pricing
    In 2017 we had a field of 94 players.
    4 over 10k 11.5k high
    17 players 8k higher 294% total ownership
    37 players 7-7.9k 212%
    40 players 6.9 or less 92%

    In 2018 we had a field of 89 players.
    4 over 10k 11.4k high
    20 players 8k higher 308% total ownership
    30 players 7-7.9k 204%
    39 players 6.9 or less 82%

    In 2019 we have a field of 87 players.
    6 over 10k 11.6k high
    22 players 8k higher
    22 players 7-7.9k
    43 players 6.9 or lesS

    DK has taken three different pricing approaches this year. First, taking a quick look at this and you will see DK has priced two more players in the 10k category than previous years with the highest priced player $100-$200 more expensive than previous two years. This is great, it should help suppress some of the high ownership we have seen in the past at 10k and above.

    2018- 12%, 17%, 20% and 25% was ownership for four above 10k.
    2017- 29%, 11%, 37% and 11% was ownership for four above 10k. Keep in mind this was the DJ slip and WD year but he still drew 11%.

    I feel early that Rose could go low owned in this grouping along with DJ possible. When I mean low owned I mean 10-12%.

    In addition I feel this year more than the last couple years more and more people are backing off the high priced players. This could possibly drive them between 8-10%.

    Second pricing difference this year. 2017 we saw 17 players above 8k. 2018 we saw 20 players above 8k. This year DK has priced 22 players above 8k! If you look at 17 vs 18 you will see a spike of 14% total ownership in the 8k and above category. Minus or plus a few points but I don’t see the total ownership changing that much for this category because of roster construction/pricing you can only fit so many players above 8k. This means with the addition of two more players we will see ownership slightly more spread.

    Finally, and perhaps the biggest change for DK falls within the next category, 7.9k to 7k. 2017 saw 37 players in this range, 2018 we had 30. For this year DK went with 22!! This is were I am struggling at the moment to figure out if the total ownership will stay similar in this category to previous years or will it drop and increase the sub 7k ownership. My early thoughts are the top of the 7k range will be chalky while people will drop below 7k and increase that range. This should make the range of 7.5k to 7k go underowned!

    Ownership
    Tying the above pricing into ownership, I discussed a little above but this should provide a better picture.
    2018 8k and above
    7 players 20%+
    10 players 10-19%
    3 players below 10%
    In the 7.9-7k range 6 players ended up 10%+ owned
    Below 7k range saw 3 players end up 10%+
    Roughly 29% of field was 10%+ owned

    2017 8k and above
    5 players 20%+
    9 players 10-19%
    3 players below 10%
    In the 7.9-7k range 7 players ended up 10% owned
    Below 7k range saw 2 players end up 10%+
    Roughly 24% of field was 10%+ owned

    We should consider anyone over 10% chalk.

    Points
    Scoring was more challenging in 17 than 18 so I will use 70+ points for 17 while 18 will be 80+ points.

    2018
    7/20 players 8k plus scored 80+ points
    5/30 players 7.9-7k scored 80+ points
    1/39 players 6.9k or less scored 80+ points

    2017
    7/17 players 8k plus scored 70+ points
    9/37 players 7.9-7k scored 70+ points
    1/40 players 6.9k or less scored 70+ points

    2018
    Of the 6 players who were owned 10% plus in the 7.9-7k range, two scored 80+ points while 3 players owned less than 10% in this range scored 80+ points. In the 6.9k or less range all three players owned 10%+ scored horrible.

    2017
    Of the 7 players who were owned 10% plus in the 7.9-7k range, three scored 70+ points while six players owned less than 10% scored 70+ points. In the 6.9k or less range the two players who were 10%+ owned scored horrible.

    To sum that up, be very cautious playing chalk players 7.9k or less and if you do make sure you have some lesser owned players within this range. I also feel the pricing changes should lower the 6/6 as it is notoriously high at the Masters, 28% plus.

  • mtdurham

    @johnsm10 said...

    Looking for advice on player pool size.

    I’m planning on entering 14 LUs in a GPP. Given the smaller field here, about how big (or small) should I limit my player pool to?

    If it were me id prob pick a core of 4 guys i really liked and make a bunch of combos around 3man & 4man cores of that grouping

  • timusbr

    @jstevens2k11 said...

    with the top five finishers receiving a trip to the PGA event of their choice during the 2020 season (each trip valued at $5,000).

    What event would you choose?
    I would like to try CIMB or TOC

  • smallANDflaccid

    @timusbr said...

    What event would you choose?
    I would like to try CIMB or TOC

    I’d pick Boston since I live here. Save them some money.

  • timusbr

    @Cooper08 said...

    Long post….DK has changed pricing this year for the Masters,

    Thanks Coop, I dont build by expected ownership but I have by Price. I never would have looked at data like this so it was nice to read a summary.

  • dbullsfan

    @timusbr said...

    What event would you choose?
    I would like to try CIMB or TOC

    I wonder if the Sony is an option, love a nice trip to Hawaii on DK’s dime, I might finally break even

  • dbullsfan

    Thanks for the very informative post Coop, What is the winning GPP score usually around for the Masters? I feel like the biggest thing I’m taking away is that 2 out of 79 Golfers 6.9 and below have scored enough that I would consider them likely to be in the optimal or winning lineups. The odds in say a 150 max build of not only hitting on who that 1 golfer a year is going to be but also that the other 5 guys in one of your lineups with that guy (assuming he is probably 10-15% max in your builds unless you are being aggresive with a cheaper guy) is going to be insanely low, where as if you just X out the entire range 6.9K and below you give yourself not only a better shot at having an overall profitable week but actually at hitting a winning lineup as your team will be built around guys with better odds of hitting scores that could be in the winning lineup.

    to build on this, if my math is right using DK pricing this year guys under 6.9K they have in the past 7 years using the Google Doc from the OP, they have 19 total top 15 finishes. 11 of those top 15 finishes were from Fred Couples, Stewart Cink, Trevor Immelman, Angel Cabrera, and Bernhard Langer with none of those 11 being in the past 4 years. That leaves us with 2 from Kevin Na and Charlie Hoffman and 1 from JB Holmes, Jimmy Walker, Zach Johnson and Danny Willett (win). While some of those guys have shown some consistency it just seems like an unnecessary dart throw with so much value in the 7-9K range

  • eruthruff

    Is ability to putt on fast greens important here? If so, what other courses/tournaments tend to have fast greens?

  • timusbr

    Regarding that DK promo First Major Countdown, I almost dont want to hit accept. I was thinking of fading Rory McIlroy. The Promo is offering 200 crowns if Rory makes the cut. LOL not that you have to play him. I almost dont want to accept on general rule of jinxing.

  • Kp24

    Good info on ownership and lineup construction Cooper08, nicely done as always.

  • qatman

    So much to choose from this week. I decided to play a bunch of guys who hit good irons and hope. First major for Paul Casey, you heard it here first.

    I actually had Keegan in the initial build but ultimately ended up with CH3 who I root for. I’m only doing one lineup with minimal entries, plus some pools which I never win.

    Good luck to those with tickets and dreams. May one of you win a million.

  • Gathon11

    @whodat2 said...

    But DJ’s natural shot is a fade

    So was Jack Nicklaus and he was ok here.

  • hautalak

    I agree that it’s going to be a first timer.

    One thing I want to say on the whole pricing thing is there are still a lot of sub 7K guys that will be chalky. I agree that the “mid: range has a lot more options and could see ownership spread a bit more than normal. Up top I have it whittled down to 5 10K+ guys (Rory, DJ, Rose, Woods, and Rahm). Maybe that’s too much but they all have a shot to win so I at least have to take them somewhere.

    Yesterday was my CH dive, today will be more stat based. Looking forward to this and thank you achievement crowns for letting me enter a few things ;)

  • johnsm10

    @mtdurham said...

    If it were me id prob pick a core of 4 guys i really liked and make a bunch of combos around 3man & 4man cores of that grouping

    I’m thinking of splitting those 14 LUs with 7 balanced, 7 stars and scrubs so my core would be different for both. You see any reason to not to that, or that being a bad idea?

  • noddy

    I bet Kucher to finish top 20. $50 to win $125. Anyone else think this is a great bet or no?

  • monarch

    Great post Coop…I agree that the mid to low 7k tier is key to this Masters. Some of my favorite plays are there…Woodland, Fitz, Sneds, CHIII

  • BIF

    Loving the wind forecasts for the week – Saturday only calm day and Sunday will have 30+ mph wind gusts. They may have to slow greens down as balls will be rolling off. Thur-Fri will be a bit windy especially Friday with 20-25 mph gusts. Winning score will be single digits unless someone shoots 64-65 on Saturday.

  • Pbasniper

    @dbullsfan said...

    Anyone know where i can get or have a spreadsheet with past years dk prices. Im curious to seeing how each price range performed and what the likelyhood of top 20 finishes were for say 7100-7500 vs 6500-7000

    Fantasy Labs you can go to ownership and to last years event and it will have price next to each player. You can export as you need.

  • ValuableTrader

    @JULIUSCEAZA said...

    @valuabletrader how did u get that 555$ ticket?

    Won the Happy Meal satty that we had during Players week

  • monarch

    I read where DJ only needs a draw on 10 and he can hit a draw with his 3 wood just fine. If wind is expected to be a major factor and scores lower…then DJ has an edge over Rory.

  • mcguirknba

    @BIF said...

    Loving the wind forecasts for the week – Saturday only calm day and Sunday will have 30+ mph wind gusts. They may have to slow greens down as balls will be rolling off. Thur-Fri will be a bit windy especially Friday with 20-25 mph gusts. Winning score will be single digits unless someone shoots 64-65 on Saturday.

    As a golf newbie is there anywhere to look up who plays well in windy conditions?

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