PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: November 12-15

    Where: Augusta, Georgia

    Course: Augusta National – A par 72 course, playing at 7445 yards.

    Cut Rules: Top 50 + ties

    Field Size: Will be around 95 golfers.

    Last Year’s Winner: Tiger Woods (-13)

    Last Year’s Cut: +3 (65 golfers made it through)

    Live Coverage:
    **Masters.com
    **DirecTV channels 901-905
    **CBS
    **ESPN on Thurs & Fri
    Shot-tracker: Masters.com (not on pgatour.com)

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Cup 2021 Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • thedkexperience

    @noddy said...

    Well those casuals that bet on Tiger last year did OK

    And they may do well again this year too. It’s not a criticism of the play. It’s a criticism of the ownership projection. Casuals get things right too.

  • shadowchap1978

    Man the thought of Jason Day in my lineups makes me a bit uneasy, I mean the guy could pull an eyelash muscle and just Withdraw in the middle of the 3rd round. But man he does play well here with his high right to left ball flight. Anyone else feel this way?

  • SteeloCity

    @shadowchap1978 said...

    Man the thought of Jason Day in my lineups makes me a bit uneasy, I mean the guy could pull an eyelash muscle and just Withdraw in the middle of the 3rd round. But man he does play well here with his high right to left ball flight. Anyone else feel this way?

    I have him in a few.

  • ifthethunder

    @SteeloCity said...

    I have him in a few.

    I have him in too many. I’m finally around to putting in my lineups (power went out this morning for a few hours, which was predictable).

    So I’ll get all my stuff in, leave a few tickets in case there’s a DK promo, and then start the tinkerbelling.
    ~

  • SteeloCity

    @ifthethunder said...

    I have him in too many. I’m finally around to putting in my lineups (power went out this morning for a few hours, which was predictable).

    So I’ll get all my stuff in, leave a few tickets in case there’s a DK promo, and then start the tinkerbelling.
    ~

    I have Rahm in a ton, DJ in a ton, EVR in a ton, Day in a few, Xander in a few, Wolff in a few, have a lot of Fleetwood for some reason, and have a bit of Kokrak and Fitz.

  • noddy

    @thedkexperience said...

    And they may do well again this year too. It’s not a criticism of the play. It’s a criticism of the ownership projection. Casuals get things right too.

    Yep I understand. I personally think ownership is way overrated. Maybe a little less in a tournament with less golfers, but man play the golfers you like and see what happens.

  • kps3205s

    @clearcache said...

    Why do you say that? (Not challenging you at all, more looking to understand what I might be missing in my model. It doesn’t like him this week.)

    I’m a single LU guy but only playing 4 LUs this week because I won 4 satty tix. I wouldn’t even be playing the milly if I had to pay for it.

    I put more emphasis on CH for here and like to keep anywhere from $200-600 on the table. I also don’t do models and such as this is entertainment for me as a golf junkie.

    I think my LUs will be a little chalky and I need to be overweight on one player and he is my ride or die.

  • timusbr

    pencil down for me.

    Winner: Give me a Tony Finau to bust his glass ceiling.
    Getting into the top 10: most of the big salaries
    Highest finisher in the 7K’s: Lee wastewood
    Best scrub to use: Lanto, seabass
    Best guy who should miss the cut because he is old but I had to use a 6000 salary: Mike Weir

    DJ, Brooks, and Rory I want to use and cant help but feel nervous about leaving anyone out. FOMO does not exist, Fear of drawing a goose egg is real.

  • noddy

    Winner – DJ
    Fade – Rory, JT, Cantlay
    Sleepers – Si Woo and Weisberger

  • BIF

    @thedkexperience said...

    I assumed 20% minimum this week.

    Never – I was thinking 8-9% Max and prob closer to 6-7%

  • sfguy21

    I feel good about 1/10 of my LUs right now and ok about 6/10. The data paralysis is real on this one. Definitely going to be tweaking things until the 11th hour.

  • noddy

    @sfguy21 said...

    I feel good about 1/10 of my LUs right now and ok about 6/10. The data paralysis is real on this one. Definitely going to be tweaking things until the 11th hour.

    It’s one of the other 3 that will be your best lineup for sure.

  • sfguy21

    @noddy said...

    It’s one of the other 3 that will be your best lineup for sure.

    I agree. Thats why I don’t over leverage spend on any one lineup. They all get the same investment knowing that the one I load up on will always be the worst.

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 259

      RG Overall Ranking

    @BIF said...

    Not sure yet but thinking at least 20% and potentially up to 40-50%. Just gotta decide if I want to swing for the fences with him (and of I can find enough value I like to fill more than 20% of my lineups).

    I have not build a single lineup yet – still reying to eliminate guys from my pool and reviewing the course conditions and what people are saying and trying to take in as much practice round video as I can of the course.

    Right on, yeah if I was going to play Bryson, I’d go something crazy like 40-50%+, being at the field or below just seems futile. I just like some guys more who are priced less.

    I’m liking Morikawa as a pivot, he won’t make any of my SE lineups (depending on how many pops I have tonight) but for gpp if a lot of folks are avoiding him like the plague, seems like a good spot differentiate.

  • MrBreeze

    @ifthethunder said...

    Does anyone have more Justin Thomas than they’re comfortable with? How about Webb Simpson?

    Just axin’ questions, here.
    ~

    I have more Webb than I think I need, feel like he is a dart throw

  • noddy

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    Right on, yeah if I was going to play Bryson, I’d go something crazy like 40-50%+, being at the field or below just seems futile. I just like some guys more who are priced less.

    I’m liking Morikawa as a pivot, he won’t make any of my SE lineups (depending on how many pops I have tonight) but for gpp if a lot of folks are avoiding him like the plague, seems like a good spot differentiate.

    This is what I don’t understand. Morikawa is being avoided because he’s not expected to do well so why play him?

  • MrBreeze

    @thedkexperience said...

    This situation just feels eerily similar to week one one of baseball when it’s flooded with casuals. The Red Sox had a monster day early that week and it lead to JD Martinez getting like 35% ownership all week which is insane in baseball.

    If I were a casual gambler I can’t possibly imagine a more casual thing to bet on than Tiger at the Masters coming off a Masters win last year. You can shoot holes in why this is a bad thought process easily but casuals don’t think deeply about this stuff.

    I dunno … I could be laughably wrong but Tiger at heavy ownership definitely feels like a thing to me.

    Tiger will not break 10% and will most likely be 7-8% tops, my thought is you play Tiger as a cut maker, but win equity is low, and at a $9100 price point, too much salary resources are drained going with him. The sharps will be @5% with the public boosting it up to that 7-8% range. YMMV

  • monarch

    I think Tiger will settle in at 7 or 8. I am seeing three percent as well. I am not using him

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 259

      RG Overall Ranking

    @noddy said...

    This is what I don’t understand. Morikawa is being avoided because he’s not expected to do well so why play him?

    Because I think the odds of him doing well are greater than what everyone else thinks. I mean he’s still a great golfer, he won a major this year for crying out loud. And from what I’ve seen, he’s expected to be very low owned. I’m going to throw him in some $3 20-max and Milly LUs but very unlikely any of my big SE or cash LUs.

    He’s risky but I think he could pay dividends. I have him in 6/50 right now. Not in any contest over $20 entry

  • You guys have to go to fan duel and do the snake drafts. Total morons over there. Taking tiger before Cantlay and brooks. taking Phil instead of day. It’s free money.

  • monarch

    Morikawa is possibly the best leverage play. I need to get some. Everyone is playing Finau and Mats, nobody is playing Morikawa. Collin is capable of having multiple rounds where he blitzes this back nine. He makes Eagles on par fives and this course hands them out.

  • BrianVT

    @thedkexperience said...

    And they may do well again this year too. It’s not a criticism of the play. It’s a criticism of the ownership projection. Casuals get things right too.

    BTW, my source has Tiger at 12.5%, and they don’t change since their initial projections since Mon night.

  • Money0227

    @monarch said...

    Morikawa is possibly the best leverage play. I need to get some. Everyone is playing Finau and Mats, nobody is playing Morikawa. Collin is capable of having multiple rounds where he blitzes this back nine. He makes Eagles on par fives and this course hands them out.

    What site are you talking about? I don’t see where Morikawa is in the Finau/Hideki price range.

  • Steverino01

    @ifthethunder said...

    leave a few tickets in case there’s a DK promo

    Probably no promo as the’ve added a $20 400K. The milly may even fill before midnight.

    And for all the Tiger talk, I’m 100% fading him, but I am a Tiger hater.

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 259

      RG Overall Ranking

    @Money0227 said...

    What site are you talking about? I don’t see where Morikawa is in the Finau/Hideki price range.

    “Range” as defined by Gambler’s Ano…., er, the DFS Constitution – “within $800 in salary”

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