PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    THIS IS AN INAUGURAL EVENT

    When: July 4-7

    Where: Twin Cities, Minnesota

    Course: TPC Twin Cities | A par 71 playing at 7468 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: N/A

    Last Year’s Cut: N/A

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | CBS

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • kps3205s

    Interesting notes on Bronson Burgoon on one of the free websites I read in case you might be looking for a flyer:

    “What he does have is a pair of runner-up finishes on the circuit, both in shootouts, and one of them at around this time last year in Illinois at the John Deere Classic.

    We could be served up a similar tournament here and Burgoon might have figured things out in time. Two weeks ago, he emerged from a slump with a first-round 64 in the Travelers, bogey-free, and in the early stages of the second round he’d progressed serenely to 10-under before coming unstuck at the 18th.

    It was a messy weekend after that, but Burgoon took another step forward last week in Detroit. Despite starting the tournament with a double-bogey, he came home in 30 on day one to shoot six-under again, and this time hit the ball really well throughout the rest of the week – particularly on Sunday.

    At the Travelers, Burgoon mentioned that he’d been back to work in Texas with his coach to figure things out and he was encouraged, as am I, by the fact that he burst into life at this time last year with a run of contending three weeks running, which culminated in that runner-up finish.”

    T35 last week and T60 the week before. Currently sitting at 140th and 24 points out of getting into the top 125 for FedEx Cup.

  • al0e_neill

    @dangasin said...

    3M is an underappreciated company. They have their hands in everything

    Especially military members’ ear canals

  • sneaksox

    @tristanwolf said...

    i cant copy the link for some reason but its on his facebook post. filling quickly.

    In, thanks!

    Agreed about Redman being too cheap, if Hovland was $8,400 last week and up to $9,100 this week (finally hopping off at that price) then Doc should’ve easily been in the $8ks.

  • Supersharpie

    Redman still not listed in FD’s pool.

    WTF?

  • dangasin

    @lexmarke238 said...

    If that’s true, it might be a record for 1-day minimum total time spent at a golf course while playing in a PGA event. He and his playing partner were done at least 4 holes ahead of the group behind them. Might have been more, but I only noticed after they were done. I wondered if R. Knox really wanted to play that fast, or if he was intimidated into doing it.

    definitely intimidated

  • dangasin

    remember when bryson dechambeau was good at golf? Then Brooks Koepka mocked Brysons slow play, forever destroying his game.

  • Pbasniper

    https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/73981889

    You know what it is.

  • timgodd375

    @sneaksox said...

    In, thanks!

    Agreed about Redman being too cheap, if Hovland was $8,400 last week and up to $9,100 this week (finally hopping off at that price) then Doc should’ve easily been in the $8ks.

    I hope redman is chalk…. Please let it happen… he played great but no thanks

  • titanhawks

    Only playing the Short Game this week with six LU’s in the PGA and three in the EURO so I can play for a bunch of Open satty tiks w/two weeks to go

    Here’s a couple of interesting tidbits from Josh Culp:

    Nate Lashley only got in the field last week due to David Berganio’s WD

    Berganio WD’d again this week so who gets in? David Lingmerth

    Also his value play this week is Troy Merritt who was born in Northern Iowa and went to Winona State in SE Minnesota

  • BrianVT

    @dangasin said...

    4th place: brooks koepka

    Is that worth paying for?

  • MrBreeze

    @timgodd375 said...

    I hope redman is chalk…. Please let it happen… he played great but no thanks

    …agreed, I have lost a lot of money chasing the hot hands, one nice week does not impress me anymore, especially from a 21 yr old. Oh I’m sure he will be around a long time, just a simple fade for me this week.

  • MrBreeze

    @BrianVT said...

    Is that worth paying for?

    when it’s at a birdie fest, yeah, I’m pretty sure it is.

  • bigez952

    @titanhawks said...

    Troy Merritt who was born in Northern Iowa and went to Winona State in SE Minnesota

    That is an interesting fact I didn’t know. I also went to Winona State at the exact same time Troy Merritt was there and never knew that.

  • Pbasniper

    @bigez952 said...

    That is an interesting fact I didn’t know. I also went to Winona State at the exact same time Troy Merritt was there and never knew that.

    Another interesting fact, he recently had a rib removed.

  • sneaksox

    @MrBreeze said...

    …agreed, I have lost a lot of money chasing the hot hands, one nice week does not impress me anymore, especially from a 21 yr old. Oh I’m sure he will be around a long time, just a simple fade for me this week.

    Yep, found a pivot off Redman I’m very happy with at the same price and I’m sticking with him.

    Going back to Morikawa though, hoping some people forgot about him after taking last week off and being priced in between lots of other popular plays.

  • al0e_neill

    Why the hell is Tom Lovelady popping on all the stats I’m favoring? He is playing so poorly but at 6100, could it be worth the salary save?

  • Pbasniper

    @al0e_neill said...

    Why the hell is Tom Lovelady popping on all the stats I’m favoring? He is playing so poorly but at 6100, could it be worth the salary save?

    What do you favor consecutive missed cuts and lost SG?

  • smallANDflaccid

    Happen to have some brief time at work today and decided to calc the probability that Brooks scores greater than or equal to 100 DK points based only on looking at course length.
    Given my database of scores and courses (~540 courses and somewhere between 5-10 years of data):
    Prob of Brooks scoring >= 100 on courses of length between 6800 and 7000: 1.96% (proxy for courses at 6900)
    Prob of Brooks scoring >= 100 on courses of length between 7000 and 7200: 1.38% (proxy for courses at 7100)
    Prob of Brooks scoring >= 100 on courses of length between 7400 and 7600: 1.76% (proxy for courses at 7500)

    Generic Prob of Brooks score >= 100 DK points ~29%

    The obvious question is then where does he score those points then, since these listed account for about 5%, so where are the rest?

    That’s harder to do purely in SQL than it would be to write some code to hammer the db and I don’t have the time right now.
    (the reason is due to tournaments that play on multiple courses during the tournament and how the lookups are done here)

    (and out of ~54k scored individual player tournaments – meaning all tracked, not just Brooks, just over 8% of them score greater than or equal to 100 DK points)

    ^^ and that doesn’t account for things like him doing that when nobody else did in the tournament, or when the par is higher/lower, etc

    It just accounts for what it says there, as it was the easiest to sneak in some time to calc.

  • Kp24

    @mperes1218 said...

    Any course correlations jumping out to anyone this week? Or taking the more blanket approach with basic stats?

    Bay Hill has been said to be similar

  • smallANDflaccid

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    Generic Prob of Brooks score >= 100 DK points ~29%

    And the top 25 guys who have played at least 10 tournaments, ordered by most to fewest, ranked by their pct 100+ DK point tournaments in my db:
    Jon Rahm
    Dustin Johnson
    Rory McIlroy
    Justin Thomas
    Brooks Koepka
    Tiger Woods
    Jason Day
    Jordan Spieth
    Justin Rose
    Matt Kuchar
    Bubba Watson
    Hideki Matsuyama
    Adam Scott
    Tommy Fleetwood
    Rickie Fowler
    Sungjae Im
    Webb Simpson
    Phil Mickelson
    Zach Johnson
    Tony Finau
    Cameron Champ
    Thomas Pieters
    Aaron Wise
    Paul Casey
    Charles Warren

    *My DK scoring stuff has minor errors, so it is feasible some of these guys didn’t quite score 100 but it has them as having done so – but it is never like they scored 20 and it gives them 100, but I have seen a 90 get a 100. It is a mix of it being too lazy to handle tiebreaker rounds correctly and it not being smart enough to grasp two halves of a round played in diff order (like back 9 first and then front 9, it might give a 3 birdie in a row for 8, 9, and 10 – even though they weren’t actually played in order).
    So it is wrong, but that error is across the whole thing, vs biased, and it is not massively off.

  • smallANDflaccid

    And if you say who the F is Charles Warren, then here is the top 25 who have played at least 100 tournaments.
    Dustin Johnson
    Rory McIlroy
    Justin Thomas
    Brooks Koepka
    Tiger Woods
    Jason Day
    Jordan Spieth
    Justin Rose
    Matt Kuchar
    Bubba Watson
    Hideki Matsuyama
    Adam Scott
    Rickie Fowler
    Webb Simpson
    Phil Mickelson
    Zach Johnson
    Tony Finau
    Paul Casey
    Brandt Snedeker
    Steve Stricker
    Kevin Na
    Keegan Bradley
    Jim Furyk
    Ryan Moore
    Henrik Stenson

  • Pbasniper

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    And if you say who the F is Charles Warren, then here is the top 25 who have played at least 100 tournaments.

    I said F Zach Johnson but he showed up on both.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @Pbasniper said...

    I said F Zach Johnson but he showed up on both.

    If I can find time – the other option is to get the latest date they last manage to do a 100+ DK tournament.
    ZJ may not have done one recently.

  • smallANDflaccid

    The arbitrary “yay 100” DK point cutoff is that while the winning total for a lineup varies by tournament, you very rarely will find yourself saying “man, this 600 point lineup didn’t cash”. So even players who get close are yay great.

  • Pbasniper

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    If I can find time – the other option is to get the latest date they last manage to do a 100+ DK tournament.
    ZJ may not have done one recently.

    So how often does Gamez pop up is the real question.

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