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  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    THE BAT was recently named the MOST ACCURATE projection system in fantasy baseball, and it’s back at RotoGrinders for a fourth season!

    If you’re not familiar with THE BAT, here’s what you need to know:

    THE BAT was recently found to be the most accurate season-long projection system tested in studies conducted at FantasyPros, FanGraphs, and Big Board (excluding aggregate projections, which are just averages of other systems). I’ve developed THE BAT over the past nine years and 10,000+ hours, using skills and methods I’ve developed from my time in the sabermetric community working with some of the best baseball minds in the world, many of whom are now making decisions for Major League clubs (several for the World Champion Houston Astros). Skills and methods that help set THE BAT apart from your run-of-the-mill Vegas or wOBA model.

    Vegas and wOBA are shortcuts, plain and simple, and any model that relies on them will give you results and lineups that are shortcuts and, therefore, suboptimal. THE BAT goes well beyond that, incorporating everything wOBA or Vegas can tell you but in a more complex way and with plenty of additional layers and features on top. And it works with RotoGrinders’ LineupHQ, helping you build your ideal lineups for both cash games and GPPs.

    Purchase THE BAT Here

    What Goes Into THE BAT?

    While I was developing my system, the code name I used for it was BATMAN, named after a certain caped crusader who 1) Is awesome, like I intended my system to be, and 2) Uses all sorts of gadgets to get the job done, which is the perfect analogy for my system. As far as I can tell, THE BAT takes into account more factors and has more features than any other system out there. You can get more details here, but to list a few, every single day THE BAT considers:
    • Opposing Hitter/Pitcher
    • Ballpark
    • Weather (everything from temperature to air pressure)
    • Umpire
    • Catcher Throwing, Intimidation, and Framing
    • Bullpen
    • League
    • Home Field Advantage
    • Platoon Splits (Hitter/Pitcher/Park/Umpire/Catcher)
    • Role
    • Lineup Position
    • Quality of Surrounding Lineup
    • And more, explained further in THE BAT FAQ

    And THE BAT doesn’t just take what a player has done at face value. This is actually one of the biggest mistakes most DFS players and models make, assuming that what a player has done this year represents his true talent level. But there’s a big difference between past performance and expected performance, and that’s why each one of these factors has its own underlying projection system so that THE BAT can have the best estimate of how well everyone and everything should perform going forward.

    If you’re really interested, there’s also some great questions in this thread, where I go into a lot of detail about some of the things THE BAT considers.

    What’s New For 2019 in THE BAT?

    In addition to the tried and true projections THE BAT has always had, a 2019 subscription gets you a lot of extras:
    Floor, Ceiling, and Percentile Projections: THE BAT now projects a range of outcomes for every player based on their own unique skillset. This can help identify both ‘safe’ and ‘high upside’ plays for GPP players.
    Podcasts: The past few years, THE BAT Podcast has been a separate subscription (it costs $125 for the 2018 season), but it comes completely FREE with all subscriptions to THE BAT in 2019. The semi-daily, 10-15 minute podcast gives my personal thoughts on the day’s slate (including why THE BAT likes/doesn’t like certain players, where I may disagree with THE BAT due to a scouting take, etc.)
    Discord Chat Room: A subscriber-only channel in the RotoGrinders Discord for THE BAT users to swap ideas and lineup suggestions. I hang out in here and answer questions a lot.
    Weekly Chat Session: A subscriber-only chat session once per week where you can ask me anything. I’m in the Discord chat room a lot to begin with, but I also set aside some time where I will absolutely be around for a full hour every week to answer questions.
    Video Archive: An archive of video lessons that explore important and often misunderstood DFS and sabermetric concepts that will give you a big edge on the competition

    Testimonials

    Returning subscribers are gushing over THE BAT. Read what they have to say here.

    How Do I Buy THE BAT?

    Simply head over to this page and follow the instructions! – If you have any questions, please post them here, hit me up on Twitter (@DerekCarty), or email (THEBAT@RotoGrinders.com) at anytime. I’m always happy to answer any questions you have about myself, THE BAT, or DFS in general.

  • CuradoKev

    HI Derek,

    A couple questions for you:

    1) Just to confirm your podcasts is for Bat Subscribers only – correct ? Nothing upsets me more than paying for premium membership and seeing all the information on YouTube – many sites do it ?
    2) Will the BAT projections work on the Mobile App – LineHQ DK from RG ?
    3) Is their ownership projections ? People asked you in 2017-2018 forums, has that been done yet ?
    4) So the season pass of $200 includes everything and more – no other packages I have to worry about ?
    5) What’s the best way to access Podcast on Iphone – Through the RG App ?

    Thanks !

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    Derek, could you please post a link to one or all of the studies that found the BAT to be the most accurate projections model? Thanks!

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @CuradoKev said...

    HI Derek,

    A couple questions for you:

    1) Just to confirm your podcasts is for Bat Subscribers only – correct ? Nothing upsets me more than paying for premium membership and seeing all the information on YouTube – many sites do it ?
    2) Will the BAT projections work on the Mobile App – LineHQ DK from RG ?
    3) Is their ownership projections ? People asked you in 2017-2018 forums, has that been done yet ?
    4) So the season pass of $200 includes everything and more – no other packages I have to worry about ?
    5) What’s the best way to access Podcast on Iphone – Through the RG App ?

    Thanks !

    No problem!

    1) Correct. The only people who can access these pods are people who subscribe. They’re not free anywhere else.
    2) Yes, I’m told the tech team should have this functional within the next few days, if not sooner
    3) Not yet, unfortunately. Still something I’d like to do, but I haven’t yet.
    4) Correct. Everything related to THE BAT that costs money is in the one package.
    5) The podcast situation isn’t ideal yet. You’d need to go to the mobile site and download it and then listen to it. I’m trying to figure out how to add it to iTunes while still restricting access to only people who subscribe. I know this is possible, but I’m having trouble figuring out how to do it.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @TheDataDetective said...

    Derek, could you please post a link to one or all of the studies that found the BAT to be the most accurate projections model? Thanks!

    Yup, no problem!

    https://www.fantasypros.com/2019/03/most-accurate-fantasy-baseball-projections-2018/
    https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2018-projection-systems-comparison-a-game-theory-approach/
    https://www.getbigboard.com/harper-wallbanger/evaluating-2018-projections

  • CuradoKev

    Thanks Derek – will sign up soon !

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @CuradoKev said...

    Thanks Derek – will sign up soon !

    Love to hear it!

  • rj3494

    I do not need to be a premium subscriber to use the bat if I decide to buy, correct?

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @rj3494 said...

    I do not need to be a premium subscriber to use the bat if I decide to buy, correct?

    Correct! THE BAT is a standalone product, you can just get THE BAT if you want.

  • PUGDADDY45

    Just got it again for the season. Great work Derek

  • Phatpocketz

    Hey Derek. Just purchased The Bat again but it seems a lot different then the toturial video. I can’t seem to find team run projections or total projections or team hit projections or team win percentage. Is there something I am doing wrong here?

    Cheers

  • Dturpin92

    Same question as Phatpocketz. That’s one of the main reasons why I subscribed. Thanks

  • emnj69

    ownership projections is most helpful info you can have-suggest working that in

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @Phatpocketz said...

    Hey Derek. Just purchased The Bat again but it seems a lot different then the toturial video. I can’t seem to find team run projections or total projections or team hit projections or team win percentage. Is there something I am doing wrong here?

    Cheers

    The tutorial is a couple years old at this point; I’ll be doing a new one soon probably. The Game and Team Projections used to be part of a separate package you had to pay for. Now they’re available for free over at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/datatable.php?page_id=146&dataTable_id=77&dataTable_name=MLB%20-%20Betting%20Model%20-%20Advanced

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @emnj69 said...

    ownership projections is most helpful info you can have-suggest working that in

    This is definitely something that’s been on my list for a while, would love to try to get these going at some point. Thanks!

  • mambaland

    @DerekCarty said...

    Yup, no problem!

    https://www.fantasypros.com/2019/03/most-accurate-fantasy-baseball-projections-2018/
    https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2018-projection-systems-comparison-a-game-theory-approach/
    https://www.getbigboard.com/harper-wallbanger/evaluating-2018-projections

    i looked at all those..none of them named Bat the most accurate..i think i saw a 5th and 2nd and maybe a 4th…where is the most accurate coming from and who named them that

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @mambaland said...

    i looked at all those..none of them named Bat the most accurate..i think i saw a 5th and 2nd and maybe a 4th…where is the most accurate coming from and who named them that

    The most accurate excluding aggregate systems, which are just averages of real systems.

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    @DerekCarty said...

    The most accurate excluding aggregate systems, which are just averages of real systems.

    If I understand correctly, the aggregate systems are really just aggregates of rankings/projections from a pool of experts. So the BAT is the most accurate computerized projections model that was tested in these evaluations. Correct?

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @TheDataDetective said...

    If I understand correctly, the aggregate systems are really just aggregates of rankings/projections from a pool of experts. So the BAT is the most accurate computerized projections model that was tested in these evaluations. Correct?

    I think some are that, and some are aggregates of actual systems. Maybe one takes an average of THE BAT, Steamer, and ZiPS. Aggregates will almost always be more accurate than any individual system by nature, although THE BAT actually wound up coming really close to the aggregates in some of these tests, which is very impressive IMO.

  • DFSx42

    @DerekCarty said...

    Aggregates will almost always be more accurate than any individual system by nature

    This is something that I’ve always been fascinated with because it never seems to account for quality control. For example, the fan projections on fangraphs are by nature the most aggregate and yet if I’m not mistaken, they are often the most incorrect.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @DFSx42 said...

    This is something that I’ve always been fascinated with because it never seems to account for quality control. For example, the fan projections on fangraphs are by nature the most aggregate and yet if I’m not mistaken, they are often the most incorrect.

    That’s a good point. The Fan Projections are different, IMO, because they are biased and not really based on anything objective. They are an aggregate of optimistic opinions, and so they wind up being wildly higher on the whole than they should be. They project the entire league average to shift — somehow up for hitters and down for pitchers simultaneously lol. It’s a great example of why smart, objective projections are better than untrained human intuition, whether we’re talking season-long or DFS.

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    @DerekCarty said...

    It’s a great example of why smart, objective projections are better than untrained human intuition, whether we’re talking season-long or DFS.

    I couldn’t agree more. I think this is why MLB is my most successful & profitable DFS sport despite being the one that I know the least about in real life. Because I have no opinions or emotions to trap me, I simply trust my app’s projections and #TrustTheData. Stats are smarter than I am. 😁

  • bjoak

    So if I use the link to EV Analytics and click on moneyline, the moneyline that is shown is The Bat’s projected accurate moneyline as opposed to a Vegas or aggregate moneyline,yes?

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