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  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    I couldn’t be happier to announce that my DFS MLB projection system, THE BAT, is launching today here at RotoGrinders! If you’ve used THE BAT over the past couple years, there’s probably not much more that I need to tell you; you know how much it can help your DFS game. If you haven’t heard of it yet, I’d like to think you’ll be happy you have now.

    What is THE BAT?

    I’ve developed THE BAT over the past six years and close to ten thousand hours, using skills and methods I’ve developed from my time in the sabermetric community working with some of the best baseball minds in the world, many of whom are now making decisions for Major League clubs. Skills and methods that help set THE BAT apart from your run-of-the-mill Vegas or wOBA model. Vegas and wOBA are shortcuts, plain and simple, and any model that relies on them will give you results and lineups that are shortcuts and, therefore, suboptimal. THE BAT goes well beyond that, incorporating everything wOBA or Vegas can tell you but in a more complex way and with plenty of layers and features on top. And it works with RotoGrinders’ Lineup Builder, helping you build your ideal lineups for both cash games and GPPs.

    Purchase THE BAT Here

    What Goes Into THE BAT?

    While I was developing my system, the code name I used for it was BATMAN, named after a certain caped crusader who 1) Is awesome, like I intended my system to be, and 2) Uses all sorts of gadgets to get the job done, which is the perfect analogy for my system. As far as I can tell, THE BAT takes into account more factors and has more features than any other system out there. You can get more details here, but to list a few, every single day THE BAT considers:

    • Opposing Hitter/Pitcher
    • Ballpark
    • Weather
    • Umpire
    • Catcher Throwing, Intimidation, and Framing
    • Bullpen
    • League
    • Home Field Advantage
    • Platoon Splits (Hitter/Pitcher/Park/Umpire/Catcher)
    • Role
    • Lineup Position
    • Quality of Surrounding Lineup
    • And more, explained further in THE BAT FAQ

    And THE BAT doesn’t just take what a player has done at face value. There’s a big difference between past performance and expected performance, and that’s why each one of these factors has its own underlying projection system so that THE BAT can have the best estimate of how well everyone and everything should perform going forward.

    What’s New for 2016?

    For those who’ve used THE BAT before, I hope you’ll be as excited as I am for some of the features that are new for 2016. While plenty of smaller upgrades have been made, the two biggest ones are the inclusion of weather data (temperature, wind, humidity, and several others that impact on-field performance) and minor league data.

    So when this year’s version of Carlos Correa gets called up, THE BAT will already have an exact projection for how good he is based on his entire professional career. Along with minor league data is Asian player data. With a record number of Asian imports this winter, DFS players will quickly realize they need to know their Byung Ho Parks (potential cleanup hitter for Minnesota) from their Kenta Maedas (Dodgers number-two starter). While other systems wait for these guys to accrue MLB stats or make a conservative initial guess, THE BAT is already taking into account their body of work Japan and Korea and translating it to the context of Major League Baseball.

    Wrigley Wind: No More Guesswork

    One of the most exciting parts of my new weather formulas is eliminating the guesswork on days when there is wind blowing in Wrigley. We all know wind can make a difference, especially in Wrigley, but how much of a difference? Instead of guessing how many guys to try and squeeze into your lineup, THE BAT will weigh the exact importance of the wind in conjunction with every other factor for the game and help you make the best decision possible.

    Why RotoGrinders?

    I debated taking THE BAT off the market this year to just use for my own play, but when it came down to it, I just love the DFS community. I love helping and teaching. That was why I started doing this in the first place, and that was one of the driving factors behind my decision to join RotoGrinders. This site and these forums are a community, and I’m looking forward to being a part of it and helping you all at DFS through my articles, expert chats, radio spots, GrindersLive appearances, and by making my projection system available.

    How Do I Buy THE BAT?

    Simply head over to this page and follow the instructions, to purchase THE BAT! – If you have any questions, please post them here, or feel free to email TheBAT@RotoGrinders.com at anytime. I’m happy to answer any questions you have about myself, THE BAT, or DFS in general.

    I wish you the best of luck this season! Just four days until Opening Day!

    THE BAT Projection System Tutorial Video

    Updates/Notes/FAQ (Last updated April 5th)

    - Feedback has been received on monthly subscriptions & trials. RG & I are talking over solutions, but in the mean time keep in mind that refunds are possible if you are unsatisfied. Please remember that this is a new product offering to RotoGrinders, and the Tech Team can’t immediately add a monthly or trial at the moment. We’ll continue to discuss solutions long-term, but the refund options is available for those interested in demoing THE BAT.

    - IMPORTANT NOTE: – Please keep all posts on-topic with questions related to THE BAT. Any posts about the industry as a whole, or not on-topic, will be removed. Thanks, The RG Mod Team

  • RabidKeith

    @twotacosfor99c said...

    Can you explain the team win percentage for starting pitchers stat? Right now it lists the Nationals as having a 54% chance of beating the Braves today. Clearly that is way off, and the RG vegas odds page shows the Nats as a -194 favorite. How much does that number go into the projection? I would assume it goes into a calculation for how likely Strasburg is to get the win.

    I hope I am just misreading something here. This is my first time looking at The Bat, as I purchased it a few minutes ago.

    Edit: If your projection system comes up with that independently based on some kind of sims, then this is a huge deviation from Vegas.

    I’m wondering the same thing and would love to hear @derekcarty address it.

  • ebsteelers

    @ebsteelers said...

    im still curious what makes this better than a fantasy labs, etc?
    both are kind of pricey. but have a lot of data. both have quality people by them

    cant seem to get answer to one or the other

  • xatewatr

    @ebsteelers said...

    im still curious what makes this better than a fantasy labs, etc?
    both are kind of pricey. but have a lot of data. both have quality people by them

    From what I know the models at FantasyLabs generate player ratings and not specific fantasy points projections. The BAT does not provide ratings but you get projected statistics and projected fantasy points.

  • simsina

    @RRT said...

    Quoting Derek from this post since it covers some of the recent questions here.

    “What needs to be understood for anyone playing DFS MLB with the goal of winning (and which I’m sure most RG readers understand) is that even though it’s called “daily fantasy,” it truly needs to be approached from a long-term perspective. Anything can happen in a short amount of time — Mike Trout has weeks where he hits .125 — but in the long-run things even out. While anything can happen in a one-week test drive, win or lose it shouldn’t make any difference to someone who is looking to use THE BAT effectively. While there are no guarantees when it comes to predicting the future, the sound methodology, process, and analytical rigor behind THE BAT (and its track record) stand on their own. And it’s important for anyone hoping to use a system like THE BAT effectively (or anyone hoping to profit from DFS in general) to realize that a sound process is vastly more important than any results of a trial sample.”

    What happened to the link that was provided ?
    Was his quote about THE BAT and its track record edited ? If not could you please provide more information on THE BAT’s track record.

  • ebsteelers

    @laggard said...

    From what I know the models at FantasyLabs generate player ratings and not specific fantasy points projections. The BAT does not provide ratings but you get projected statistics and projected fantasy points.

    thanks!

  • ramagosr

    Well, this is great since I spent $150 on the Bat and then like 1 day later my state (AL) bans DFS.

  • Ross
    @ramagosr said...

    Well, this is great since I spent $150 on the Bat and then like 1 day later my state (AL) bans DFS.

    Hi,

    I sent you a pm.

  • Ross
    @simsina said...

    What happened to the link that was provided ?
    Was his quote about THE BAT and its track record edited ? If not could you please provide more information on THE BAT’s track record.

    I don’t think that post had a link, but will check on it now.

  • BmoreClutch

    @laggard said...

    From what I know the models at FantasyLabs generate player ratings and not specific fantasy points projections. The BAT does not provide ratings but you get projected statistics and projected fantasy points.

    The player ratings are part of the free content on FL. You get projected fantasy points in the premium content.

  • simsina

    It did

  • denzeleffinjones

    FL doesn’t have projected fantasy points for MLB (but they do for NBA and NFL). It’s only the ratings for MLB, even in the Premium Models. Bales has talked about the reasoning behind this on their podcasts.

  • BmoreClutch

    @denzeleffinjones said...

    FL doesn’t have projected fantasy points for MLB (but they do for NBA and NFL). It’s only the ratings for MLB, even in the Premium Models. Bales has talked about the reasoning behind this on their podcasts.

    My mistake. I could have sworn I saw projections on the FL app. I just tried to look at the app again, but none of the models for any sport are coming up. I guess it’s no longer free

  • Trevmitch27

    Has anyone purchased , THE BAT? If so, has it been worth it?

  • Warriv

    @Trevmitch27 said...

    Has anyone purchased , THE BAT? If so, has it been worth it?

    I have it and like it so far. It seems to have a lot of potential and the projections seem to be better than anything else I have seen available, but it really lacks some basic features such as ability to sort by position, time slate, player price, site, teams/opponents etc… RG is planning to add some of these.

  • ebsteelers

    @denzeleffinjones said...

    FL doesn’t have projected fantasy points for MLB (but they do for NBA and NFL). It’s only the ratings for MLB, even in the Premium Models. Bales has talked about the reasoning behind this on their podcasts.

    interesting.. thanks.. so one is ratings and the bat has points..
    both kind of pricey…decisions decisions

  • moedigs

    If RG really wanted people to pay for The Bat they should do a free trial for members just to see what its like and if it would be worth it.. i’m not a serious enough player to pay $150 for a tool… but i might consider it if i felt like it was worth it.. my 2 cents

  • MickyD10970

    • 349

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #38

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Opposing Hitter/Pitcher
    • Ballpark
    • Weather

    The BAT factors in weather according to the description but I did not see any adjustment on projections yesterday for players in the Yankee game when it was known that very strong winds were blowing out. Pineda was the 2nd highest projected pitcher in night slate and no position players from either team were projected very highly. This did not change throughout the day (the BAT projections) I actually heard from Fast Eddie and or Kevin Roth, cant remember for sure about the strong winds blowing out. I would think the BAT should account for this? Not a complaint just trying to understand how the system I purchased works. Another comment, I tried some of the multiple lineups and they seemed to really focus on a core group of pitchers and hitters. Ran out 20 lineups in the $3 as an experiment and would have expected a little more diversity in the players and Pitchers. Strasberg and Pineda were in over 90% of the lineups. (I did not set any stacks or exposure %‘s on my own) The only Yankee with decent exposure was McCann despite the wind situation and the Vegas over/under.

    All this being said it has only been a couple of days and baseball is a long season

  • simsina

    @RRT said...

    @simsina said…

    I don’t think that post had a link, but will check on it now.

    Did you find anything ? And can you find out about the track record claims ? thanks

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @pacers19191 said...

    How often do the projections update? The optimal lineup right at lock ends up being much different than the optimal a few hours later.

    *Edit. Just realized I was looking at rotogrinders projections and not The Bat’s

    Right, projections run on a 5-minute loop to update with the latest information, so they can look quite different by the time lineup lock rolls around

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @Greenie222 said...

    Can i sport Bat projections to other optimizers if I purchase it?

    This has been a common request. It’s something we’ve been talking about and will likely be adding shortly.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @RabidKeith said...

    I’m wondering the same thing and would love to hear @derekcarty address it.

    As a projection system (distinct from a model), the system works independent of Vegas. Essentially, it uses a similar approach to a Vegas model (presumably) to arrive at team run totals and win percentages on its own. The advantages of this are that it eliminates the black box aspects of Vegas that lead to imprecision in models. With Vegas run totals and favorites, for example, there’s no way to tell how many of those runs should be credited to the starting pitcher and how many to the bullpen. And as a result, there’s no way to tell what a starting pitcher’s actual chance of getting the win is even if the team is projected to win the game. What if Vegas is actually expecting the starter to only go five innings and give up the majority of the runs and then the bullpen to lock it down from there while the team’s offense scores a disproportionate number of runs on the opposition’s bullpen? This would change the chances of the starting pitcher to get the win dramatically, so I’ve created my system to calculate all of these things individually so credit is being assigned to each entity properly.

    As far as the win percentages, it arrives at the team win percentages on its own using the underlying systems and factors to first determine projections for all of the various stats that can occur on the field, then translating those into run totals for starting pitchers and relievers, combining to create team totals, calculating expected team winning percentages, and then assigning a portion of that team winning percentage as the starting pitcher’s chance of getting the win based on how well he’s projected to perform. This will sometimes vary from Vegas, which you can of course still use as another tool to inform your decision-making.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @simsina said...

    What happened to the link that was provided ?
    Was his quote about THE BAT and its track record edited ? If not could you please provide more information on THE BAT’s track record.

    Track record wasn’t the quite the right word choice. Reputation would have been more accurate. I haven’t conducted any studies on the accuracy of the system (and am regretting having not since it seems like this is a popular request), but by that I more meant the success that past subscribers have had using it over the past couple years, several of whom have chimed in throughout this forum.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @MickyD10970 said...

    • Opposing Hitter/Pitcher
    • Ballpark
    • Weather

    The BAT factors in weather according to the description but I did not see any adjustment on projections yesterday for players in the Yankee game when it was known that very strong winds were blowing out. Pineda was the 2nd highest projected pitcher in night slate and no position players from either team were projected very highly. This did not change throughout the day (the BAT projections) I actually heard from Fast Eddie and or Kevin Roth, cant remember for sure about the strong winds blowing out. I would think the BAT should account for this? Not a complaint just trying to understand how the system I purchased works. Another comment, I tried some of the multiple lineups and they seemed to really focus on a core group of pitchers and hitters. Ran out 20 lineups in the $3 as an experiment and would have expected a little more diversity in the players and Pitchers. Strasberg and Pineda were in over 90% of the lineups. (I did not set any stacks or exposure %‘s on my own) The only Yankee with decent exposure was McCann despite the wind situation and the Vegas over/under.

    All this being said it has only been a couple of days and baseball is a long season

    Right, so THE BAT accounts for weather, but wind is only one of the factors. It was 45 degrees yesterday, which is very cold and had a bigger impact on the projection than the winds (and a bigger impact on why more bats didn’t show up, although they were still ranked pretty high). Obviously Pineda was an absolute disaster, but those kinds of projections will happen on occasion. THE BAT deals with probability because there’s just no such thing as certainty in DFS. The rest of the top-rated pitchers, even some of the more obscure ones like Finnegan and Nicasio, all wound up doing well. Unfortunately, I played Pineda myself and lost quite a bit of money :(

    As far as the multiple lineups go, I’m not sure exactly how the Lineup Builder works, but I’d imagine on a smaller slate like we had last night you’re going to get less variation.

  • twotacosfor99c

    Thank you for the detailed response.

  • tvsfrink

    For those who are curious about how THE BAT performs (or just want to make fun of my lineups), follow along with my (admittedly flawed) comparison between THE BAT and RG’s Lineup Builder.

    https://rotogrinders.com/threads/the-bat-vs-rg-a-flawed-analysis-1255468

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