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  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    I couldn’t be happier to announce that my DFS MLB projection system, THE BAT, is launching today here at RotoGrinders! If you’ve used THE BAT over the past couple years, there’s probably not much more that I need to tell you; you know how much it can help your DFS game. If you haven’t heard of it yet, I’d like to think you’ll be happy you have now.

    What is THE BAT?

    I’ve developed THE BAT over the past six years and close to ten thousand hours, using skills and methods I’ve developed from my time in the sabermetric community working with some of the best baseball minds in the world, many of whom are now making decisions for Major League clubs. Skills and methods that help set THE BAT apart from your run-of-the-mill Vegas or wOBA model. Vegas and wOBA are shortcuts, plain and simple, and any model that relies on them will give you results and lineups that are shortcuts and, therefore, suboptimal. THE BAT goes well beyond that, incorporating everything wOBA or Vegas can tell you but in a more complex way and with plenty of layers and features on top. And it works with RotoGrinders’ Lineup Builder, helping you build your ideal lineups for both cash games and GPPs.

    Purchase THE BAT Here

    What Goes Into THE BAT?

    While I was developing my system, the code name I used for it was BATMAN, named after a certain caped crusader who 1) Is awesome, like I intended my system to be, and 2) Uses all sorts of gadgets to get the job done, which is the perfect analogy for my system. As far as I can tell, THE BAT takes into account more factors and has more features than any other system out there. You can get more details here, but to list a few, every single day THE BAT considers:

    • Opposing Hitter/Pitcher
    • Ballpark
    • Weather
    • Umpire
    • Catcher Throwing, Intimidation, and Framing
    • Bullpen
    • League
    • Home Field Advantage
    • Platoon Splits (Hitter/Pitcher/Park/Umpire/Catcher)
    • Role
    • Lineup Position
    • Quality of Surrounding Lineup
    • And more, explained further in THE BAT FAQ

    And THE BAT doesn’t just take what a player has done at face value. There’s a big difference between past performance and expected performance, and that’s why each one of these factors has its own underlying projection system so that THE BAT can have the best estimate of how well everyone and everything should perform going forward.

    What’s New for 2016?

    For those who’ve used THE BAT before, I hope you’ll be as excited as I am for some of the features that are new for 2016. While plenty of smaller upgrades have been made, the two biggest ones are the inclusion of weather data (temperature, wind, humidity, and several others that impact on-field performance) and minor league data.

    So when this year’s version of Carlos Correa gets called up, THE BAT will already have an exact projection for how good he is based on his entire professional career. Along with minor league data is Asian player data. With a record number of Asian imports this winter, DFS players will quickly realize they need to know their Byung Ho Parks (potential cleanup hitter for Minnesota) from their Kenta Maedas (Dodgers number-two starter). While other systems wait for these guys to accrue MLB stats or make a conservative initial guess, THE BAT is already taking into account their body of work Japan and Korea and translating it to the context of Major League Baseball.

    Wrigley Wind: No More Guesswork

    One of the most exciting parts of my new weather formulas is eliminating the guesswork on days when there is wind blowing in Wrigley. We all know wind can make a difference, especially in Wrigley, but how much of a difference? Instead of guessing how many guys to try and squeeze into your lineup, THE BAT will weigh the exact importance of the wind in conjunction with every other factor for the game and help you make the best decision possible.

    Why RotoGrinders?

    I debated taking THE BAT off the market this year to just use for my own play, but when it came down to it, I just love the DFS community. I love helping and teaching. That was why I started doing this in the first place, and that was one of the driving factors behind my decision to join RotoGrinders. This site and these forums are a community, and I’m looking forward to being a part of it and helping you all at DFS through my articles, expert chats, radio spots, GrindersLive appearances, and by making my projection system available.

    How Do I Buy THE BAT?

    Simply head over to this page and follow the instructions, to purchase THE BAT! – If you have any questions, please post them here, or feel free to email TheBAT@RotoGrinders.com at anytime. I’m happy to answer any questions you have about myself, THE BAT, or DFS in general.

    I wish you the best of luck this season! Just four days until Opening Day!

    THE BAT Projection System Tutorial Video

    Updates/Notes/FAQ (Last updated April 5th)

    - Feedback has been received on monthly subscriptions & trials. RG & I are talking over solutions, but in the mean time keep in mind that refunds are possible if you are unsatisfied. Please remember that this is a new product offering to RotoGrinders, and the Tech Team can’t immediately add a monthly or trial at the moment. We’ll continue to discuss solutions long-term, but the refund options is available for those interested in demoing THE BAT.

    - IMPORTANT NOTE: – Please keep all posts on-topic with questions related to THE BAT. Any posts about the industry as a whole, or not on-topic, will be removed. Thanks, The RG Mod Team

  • rsigler65

    Hey, can the Bat be updated sooner when lineups lock? I mean its 8:20 and last updated at 6:40. Thanks much.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @rsigler65 said...

    Hey, can the Bat be updated sooner when lineups lock? I mean its 8:20 and last updated at 6:40. Thanks much.

    Hey, what do you mean? THE BAT updates on a 5-minute loop and was updating fine through lock for me. Were you having issues tonight?

  • wwhis

    THE BAT has todays pitchers correct under the pitchers tab. Under the hitters tad it still has yesterdays match ups.
    That makes me wonder if projected points are correct.

  • rsigler65

    Some of the 10PM games had no checkmarks a good couple of hours after the lineups were out. Are those automatic also? Actually, yesterdays batter matchups are still up and the confirmed checkmarks are still missing. And it still says Friday at 6:40PM ET.

  • dchapell

    Is anyone consistently winning with the BAT?

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @wwhis said...

    THE BAT has todays pitchers correct under the pitchers tab. Under the hitters tad it still has yesterdays match ups.
    That makes me wonder if projected points are correct.

    Pitchers are, hitters are not right now. For some reason they got stuck last night, the tech team is looking into why it’s not updated.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @rsigler65 said...

    Some of the 10PM games had no checkmarks a good couple of hours after the lineups were out. Are those automatic also? Actually, yesterdays batter matchups are still up and the confirmed checkmarks are still missing. And it still says Friday at 6:40PM ET.

    Yeah, it looks like something weird happened to the batters page last night. The tech team is looking into it. That kind of thing shouldn’t happen (like I said, 5 minute loops), so if you ever notice anything strange like that, feel free to email me or DM me on Twitter and we’ll get it resolved quickly.

  • topspinner

    I just purchased the bat and on initial look, the hitters ratings seem to make sense. However, some of the pitcher ratings seem slightly askew.

    For example matt moore, has a w% of 45% and team win % of 57%, however Baltimore is favored in this game -145. I think this is throwing off his rating quite a bit.
    Samething with Minnesota, clev is favored in the game, but Minny is showing a higher win %. Also, k’s for Bauer don’t look right…minny strikes out higher than league average against righties, but Bauer is showing to get less than his average number of k’s per start

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @topspinner said...

    I just purchased the bat and on initial look, the hitters ratings seem to make sense. However, some of the pitcher ratings seem slightly askew.

    For example matt moore, has a w% of 45% and team win % of 57%, however Baltimore is favored in this game -145. I think this is throwing off his rating quite a bit.
    Samething with Minnesota, clev is favored in the game, but Minny is showing a higher win %. Also, k’s for Bauer don’t look right…minny strikes out higher than league average against righties, but Bauer is showing to get less than his average number of k’s per start

    So the way THE BAT works, before lineups are released, it uses the last lineup a team used against a LHP/RHP (whatever they’re facing that day). The last time the O’s faced a LHP was in LA against the Dodgers, so the lineup had a pitcher in it, which is obviously easier than a DH and skewed the win projections a bit. Once the actual lineups were released Moore fell down a little.

    The one important thing to keep in mind though is that THE BAT doesn’t use Vegas at all. There are plenty of systems that do, but Vegas is a shortcut method and misses lots of nuance. THE BAT works similarly to the way the models that generate the Vegas lines do, I imagine, and they’ll match closely pretty often, but when they deviate THE BAT tends to have the edge in my experience.

    As far Bauer goes, THE BAT accounts for a lot of different things, so it’s rarely as simple as looking at a player’s average Ks per start and the K% of the opposing team. THE BAT uses multiple years to form its underlying impressions of players, in addition to a bunch of contextual factors that can make a player perform drastically different from his seasonal numbers on any given day. In this case, Bauer was facing the Twins in Target Field, which is a bad park for strikeouts, with an extreme hitters’ umpire calling pitches. Also, the current iteration of the Twins lineup is a different, better one than put up those numbers earlier this year. Plus, since Bauer isn’t as good as his surface numbers this year, he’s gone deeper into games than we should expect him to going forward, so that Ks per start stat will overestimate his Ks since he’ll face fewer batters going forward.

  • oilydave

    Is the bat messed up again this morning?

  • Powellbr

    Is this worth it now at $75 for the 2nd half of the season?

  • topspinner

    Pitcher info isn’t loaded, last update is at midnight

  • yuda

    What the hell is going on this morning? The BAT just put together an optimal DK lineup with Hamels and Lackey combined with a game stack of CHC and TEX hitters. This was the optimal lineup with everything reset to defaults. Ridiculous.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @yuda said...

    What the hell is going on this morning? The BAT just put together an optimal DK lineup with Hamels and Lackey combined with a game stack of CHC and TEX hitters. This was the optimal lineup with everything reset to defaults. Ridiculous.

    There were some issues on the tech side with changes made over the All-Star break in the way the data was processed to be displayed, but I’m told they’ve now been corrected. This led to the stale data the past couple mornings and possibly related to this, as that’s obviously not right. The issue was fixed a couple hours ago, and I don’t see any sign of Hamels or Lackey in optimals.

  • tvsfrink

    @yuda said...

    What the hell is going on this morning? The BAT just put together an optimal DK lineup with Hamels and Lackey combined with a game stack of CHC and TEX hitters. This was the optimal lineup with everything reset to defaults. Ridiculous.

    Super contrarian!

  • topspinner

    @DerekCarty said...

    The one important thing to keep in mind though is that THE BAT doesn’t use Vegas at all. There are plenty of systems that do, but Vegas is a shortcut method and misses lots of nuance. THE BAT works similarly to the way the models that generate the Vegas lines do, I imagine, and they’ll match closely pretty often

    Hi Derek

    Thank you so much for your detailed response, makes sense for the most part. You might want to update the popup which appears when you mouseover the tw%, it says this % is based on how often the pitchers team is expected to win according to vegas.

  • CeeGee

    • 131

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #14

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Does THE BAT have the ability to check “optimal” lineups from previous days? — Or, at least check projections from previous days?

    Also, do you have the ability to download the current days projections?

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @topspinner said...

    Hi Derek

    Thank you so much for your detailed response, makes sense for the most part. You might want to update the popup which appears when you mouseover the tw%, it says this % is based on how often the pitchers team is expected to win according to vegas.

    So it does, I never noticed that. I’ll have the tech team fix that, since this is the projected win percentage according to THE BAT. Thanks for the heads up.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @CeeGee said...

    Does THE BAT have the ability to check “optimal” lineups from previous days? — Or, at least check projections from previous days?

    Also, do you have the ability to download the current days projections?

    It doesn’t have the ability to check previous days, although this is something a few people have asked for now, so I’ll check with the team to see what it would take to make that happen.

    There is the ability to download the current day in CSV form.

  • CeeGee

    • 131

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #14

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Thanks for the response Derek

  • jimmyrad

    Is there a way to separate out umpire (and maybe weather) factors from the whole of the projection?

    also, I’d like to get an idea on how finely tuned the weather section is. Wind howling out, hot and humid I can figure out myself. Is there small, subtle changes? Like say would the projection be different for a player with these forecasts:

    A- GTT 84, wind out to center 4-6 mph

    B- GTT 87 out to center 8-10 mph

  • ageict

    @yuda said...

    What the hell is going on this morning? The BAT just put together an optimal DK lineup with Hamels and Lackey combined with a game stack of CHC and TEX hitters. This was the optimal lineup with everything reset to defaults. Ridiculous.

    Except for the two pitchers I had locked, I got the same thing. A lineup with nothing but TEX and CHC hitters. Disappointing.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @jimmyrad said...

    Is there a way to separate out umpire (and maybe weather) factors from the whole of the projection?

    also, I’d like to get an idea on how finely tuned the weather section is. Wind howling out, hot and humid I can figure out myself. Is there small, subtle changes? Like say would the projection be different for a player with these forecasts:

    A- GTT 84, wind out to center 4-6 mph

    B- GTT 87 out to center 8-10 mph

    THE BAT doesn’t display exactly what the effect of each umpire or weather condition is, but it is finely tuned in the way you suggest. It will apply a different calculation for 84 degrees as it will for 85 degrees, and a different calculation for 5-mph of wind as it will for 6-mph of wind. The differences when the gap is so small are, of course, very small, but it does make the distinction

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @ageict said...

    Except for the two pitchers I had locked, I got the same thing. A lineup with nothing but TEX and CHC hitters. Disappointing.

    Yeah, that game was a major disappointment today, but getting a lineup with a bunch of hitters from that game wasn’t wrong from a process standpoint. Vegas had it as a high-scoring game with the Cubs as the top offense of the day too. Winds approaching 20-mph to dead center in Wrigley basically turn it into Coors Field, on average. Even in Coors we occasionally get 4-1 games, though, and we just shake our fists and realize that’s how baseball works sometimes.

  • topspinner

    Is there anyway to see the underlying data that you use for your projections? The reason I ask, is because I noticed this morning, that there is a pricing mistake and a key player missing……it would be nice to be able to check and make sure the data that is being used is correct.

    Thanks

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