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  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    I couldn’t be happier to announce that my DFS MLB projection system, THE BAT, is launching today here at RotoGrinders! If you’ve used THE BAT over the past couple years, there’s probably not much more that I need to tell you; you know how much it can help your DFS game. If you haven’t heard of it yet, I’d like to think you’ll be happy you have now.

    What is THE BAT?

    I’ve developed THE BAT over the past six years and close to ten thousand hours, using skills and methods I’ve developed from my time in the sabermetric community working with some of the best baseball minds in the world, many of whom are now making decisions for Major League clubs. Skills and methods that help set THE BAT apart from your run-of-the-mill Vegas or wOBA model. Vegas and wOBA are shortcuts, plain and simple, and any model that relies on them will give you results and lineups that are shortcuts and, therefore, suboptimal. THE BAT goes well beyond that, incorporating everything wOBA or Vegas can tell you but in a more complex way and with plenty of layers and features on top. And it works with RotoGrinders’ Lineup Builder, helping you build your ideal lineups for both cash games and GPPs.

    Purchase THE BAT Here

    What Goes Into THE BAT?

    While I was developing my system, the code name I used for it was BATMAN, named after a certain caped crusader who 1) Is awesome, like I intended my system to be, and 2) Uses all sorts of gadgets to get the job done, which is the perfect analogy for my system. As far as I can tell, THE BAT takes into account more factors and has more features than any other system out there. You can get more details here, but to list a few, every single day THE BAT considers:

    • Opposing Hitter/Pitcher
    • Ballpark
    • Weather
    • Umpire
    • Catcher Throwing, Intimidation, and Framing
    • Bullpen
    • League
    • Home Field Advantage
    • Platoon Splits (Hitter/Pitcher/Park/Umpire/Catcher)
    • Role
    • Lineup Position
    • Quality of Surrounding Lineup
    • And more, explained further in THE BAT FAQ

    And THE BAT doesn’t just take what a player has done at face value. There’s a big difference between past performance and expected performance, and that’s why each one of these factors has its own underlying projection system so that THE BAT can have the best estimate of how well everyone and everything should perform going forward.

    What’s New for 2016?

    For those who’ve used THE BAT before, I hope you’ll be as excited as I am for some of the features that are new for 2016. While plenty of smaller upgrades have been made, the two biggest ones are the inclusion of weather data (temperature, wind, humidity, and several others that impact on-field performance) and minor league data.

    So when this year’s version of Carlos Correa gets called up, THE BAT will already have an exact projection for how good he is based on his entire professional career. Along with minor league data is Asian player data. With a record number of Asian imports this winter, DFS players will quickly realize they need to know their Byung Ho Parks (potential cleanup hitter for Minnesota) from their Kenta Maedas (Dodgers number-two starter). While other systems wait for these guys to accrue MLB stats or make a conservative initial guess, THE BAT is already taking into account their body of work Japan and Korea and translating it to the context of Major League Baseball.

    Wrigley Wind: No More Guesswork

    One of the most exciting parts of my new weather formulas is eliminating the guesswork on days when there is wind blowing in Wrigley. We all know wind can make a difference, especially in Wrigley, but how much of a difference? Instead of guessing how many guys to try and squeeze into your lineup, THE BAT will weigh the exact importance of the wind in conjunction with every other factor for the game and help you make the best decision possible.

    Why RotoGrinders?

    I debated taking THE BAT off the market this year to just use for my own play, but when it came down to it, I just love the DFS community. I love helping and teaching. That was why I started doing this in the first place, and that was one of the driving factors behind my decision to join RotoGrinders. This site and these forums are a community, and I’m looking forward to being a part of it and helping you all at DFS through my articles, expert chats, radio spots, GrindersLive appearances, and by making my projection system available.

    How Do I Buy THE BAT?

    Simply head over to this page and follow the instructions, to purchase THE BAT! – If you have any questions, please post them here, or feel free to email TheBAT@RotoGrinders.com at anytime. I’m happy to answer any questions you have about myself, THE BAT, or DFS in general.

    I wish you the best of luck this season! Just four days until Opening Day!

    THE BAT Projection System Tutorial Video

    Updates/Notes/FAQ (Last updated April 5th)

    - Feedback has been received on monthly subscriptions & trials. RG & I are talking over solutions, but in the mean time keep in mind that refunds are possible if you are unsatisfied. Please remember that this is a new product offering to RotoGrinders, and the Tech Team can’t immediately add a monthly or trial at the moment. We’ll continue to discuss solutions long-term, but the refund options is available for those interested in demoing THE BAT.

    - IMPORTANT NOTE: – Please keep all posts on-topic with questions related to THE BAT. Any posts about the industry as a whole, or not on-topic, will be removed. Thanks, The RG Mod Team

  • ageict

    Was that strange Coors lineup just for the 2 game turbo slate? Seems like the only way it would give you that.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @MickyD10970 said...

    Interesting that the optimal lineup tonight is all Coors field including the 4000 pitcher (Draftkings) for the Dodgers and also includes 3 Rockies hitters. Not sure how that would be optimal in any way.

    Yeah, for some reason the Lineup Builder was defaulting to the two game slate. You had to set it to the main slate to get a normal lineup

  • Rbrtdsnts

    Newish customer, really enjoying the package so far. Love that it integrates with lineup builder, which allows me to make lineups on a number of sites (not just the big 2).
    Baseball is baseball, it’ll never be “consistent or predictable”, but I can say this has made its money back for me within the first 2 weeks (I was a mid season subscriber).

    Thanks!

  • Jvanspro

    I would love to see the splits for batters and pitchers integrated in the dashboard. Overall pleased though. Although I chose Freeman over E5 last night for a little savings. That was not my best move. Still cashed though.

  • tvsfrink

    Does the BAT subscription include the playoffs?

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @Rbrtdsnts said...

    Newish customer, really enjoying the package so far. Love that it integrates with lineup builder, which allows me to make lineups on a number of sites (not just the big 2).
    Baseball is baseball, it’ll never be “consistent or predictable”, but I can say this has made its money back for me within the first 2 weeks (I was a mid season subscriber).

    Thanks!

    That’s awesome! Glad to hear it!

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @Jvanspro said...

    I would love to see the splits for batters and pitchers integrated in the dashboard. Overall pleased though. Although I chose Freeman over E5 last night for a little savings. That was not my best move. Still cashed though.

    Yeah, the splits are factored into THE BAT projections, but certain information I need to keep proprietary. Glad to hear you’re pleased with it, though :)

  • Jvanspro

    @DerekCarty said...

    Yeah, the splits are factored into THE BAT projections, but certain information I need to keep proprietary. Glad to hear you’re pleased with it, though :)

    I guess what I meant was I’d like to see a batters iso vs. rhp for example. Thanks for the reply.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @Jvanspro said...

    I guess what I meant was I’d like to see a batters iso vs. rhp for example. Thanks for the reply.

    Right, so that kind of stuff isn’t displayed because it’s easy enough to find at FanGraphs or elsewhere, a bit outside the purview of THE BAT, and also because THE BAT takes a more complicated approach to platoon splits, so displaying those numbers would be misleading. There is a lot of variance in platoon splits, and so THE BAT doesn’t just take those numbers at face value. It deals with the variance and adjusts those numbers in the best way possible to increase accuracy. The final numbers are what I meant were proprietary and why we don’t show them. Hope that makes sense.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @tvsfrink said...

    Does the BAT subscription include the playoffs?

    We’re still working out the logistics of it. Hopefully.

  • Jvanspro

    @DerekCarty said...

    Right, so that kind of stuff isn’t displayed because it’s easy enough to find at FanGraphs or elsewhere, a bit outside the purview of THE BAT, and also because THE BAT takes a more complicated approach to platoon splits, so displaying those numbers would be misleading. There is a lot of variance in platoon splits, and so THE BAT doesn’t just take those numbers at face value. It deals with the variance and adjusts those numbers in the best way possible to increase accuracy. The final numbers are what I meant were proprietary and why we don’t show them. Hope that makes sense.

    That makes more sense

  • wwhis

    No pitchers on the bat today.

  • rsigler65

    Hi. 2 Things:

    1) Where’s the pitchers at?
    2) Is there a way to display the data in the table columns so that when used in a calculation, the resulting proj will match the BAT proj. It’s not an issue of rounding numbers – the results are way off, especially when you get farther down on the list. You can run a couple of calculations on mid/low priced guys using Fanduel’s scoring as an example. The column data will calculate out to like 11 fpts rather than 22, for example. I mean, if there is a fancy proprietary calculation that you don’t want to display, I guess that makes sense, but if it’s something that’s fixable, it would really be a nice facelift for the product IMO. Right now I have to export 8 different csv’s to play on 4 sites if I want to use the BAT proj in my spreadsheet – it would be great to export just 1 cvs and have sheets run the calculation for me using the data in the columns. Otherwise, is there maybe an explanation of what the data in the columns is?

    Edit: Or another possibility might be just one table with just projections for all the sites, since the data columns may not be all that relevant anyway.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @rsigler65 said...

    Hi. 2 Things:

    1) Where’s the pitchers at?
    2) Is there a way to display the data in the table columns so that when used in a calculation, the resulting proj will match the BAT proj. It’s not an issue of rounding numbers – the results are way off, especially when you get farther down on the list. You can run a couple of calculations on mid/low priced guys using Fanduel’s scoring as an example. The column data will calculate out to like 11 fpts rather than 22, for example. I mean, if there is a fancy proprietary calculation that you don’t want to display, I guess that makes sense, but if it’s something that’s fixable, it would really be a nice facelift for the product IMO. Right now I have to export 8 different csv’s to play on 4 sites if I want to use the BAT proj in my spreadsheet – it would be great to export just 1 cvs and have sheets run the calculation for me using the data in the columns. Otherwise, is there maybe an explanation of what the data in the columns is?

    Edit: Or another possibility might be just one table with just projections for all the sites, since the data columns may not be all that relevant anyway.

    1) Pitchers have been fixed. I was just checking some things late last night and had it set to the wrong date and forgot to set it back to today.
    2) Hmmm, there’s no reason why it should be anything other than a small rounding error. Can you give me an example I can check? Maybe email or Twitter DM me, if you can, that way I’m sure to look at it at the same time as you.

  • yuda

    There are much different player projections right now between “The BAT” main page and the “Lineup Builder”. The most obvious example is Shoemaker, who is projected for the third lowest points in the main page yet is projected for the sixth most points for pitchers in tonight’s slate. Almost no player projections match up. And, yes, I did change Lineup Builder to use The BAT.

  • yuda

    @yuda said...

    There are much different player projections right now between “The BAT” main page and the “Lineup Builder”. The most obvious example is Shoemaker, who is projected for the third lowest points in the main page yet is projected for the sixth most points for pitchers in tonight’s slate. Almost no player projections match up. And, yes, I did change Lineup Builder to use The BAT.

    Ok, I was able to correct this issue by changing Lineup Builder to RG projections and then loading The BAT again. BAT is a great tool but am very frustrated with Lineup Builder.

  • rsigler65

    It’s the pitchers that are the main culprit – just run a basic Fanduel calculation on any pitcher in the bottom half of the list (it doesn’t matter when) based on (W*12)-(ER*3)+(K*3)+(IP*3). Does it have something to do with how wins are calculated? It sounds like no one has tested this yet.

  • sgaffney

    Yeah this happens to me a lot as well. I notice the BAT and lineup builder BAT projections are different, nearly always clears when you load RG projections and come back to it, not ideal though.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @rsigler65 said...

    It’s the pitchers that are the main culprit – just run a basic Fanduel calculation on any pitcher in the bottom half of the list (it doesn’t matter when) based on (W*12)-(ER*3)+(K*3)+(IP*3). Does it have something to do with how wins are calculated? It sounds like no one has tested this yet.

    What am I missing? I just downloaded the CSV and calculated points based on the formula and compared it to the points given. They’re all very close, just rounding errors.

    Madison Bumgarner 52.63 52.57
    Jacob deGrom 41.96 41.96
    Tyler Anderson 36.04 36.01
    Kyle Hendricks 35.12 35.10
    Aaron Sanchez 35.51 35.50
    Gerrit Cole 33.63 33.68
    Adam Conley 33.05 33.03
    Kevin Gausman 32.1 32.07
    Zach Davies 31.56 31.54
    Masahiro Tanaka 31.34 31.40
    Cole Hamels 31.8 31.76
    Collin McHugh 29.88 29.82
    Brandon McCarthy 28.1 28.06
    Hisashi Iwakuma 27.63 27.66
    Jerad Eickhoff 26.87 26.87
    Dan Straily 26.85 26.92
    Reynaldo Lopez 27.71 27.65
    Clay Buchholz 27.31 27.28
    Matt Andriese 26.09 26.13
    Tyler Duffey 26.77 26.76
    Luke Weaver 24.8 24.75
    Kendall Graveman 25.54 25.50
    James Shields 24.59 24.56
    Rob Whalen 23.53 23.56
    Jarred Cosart 22.18 22.13
    Matt Shoemaker 21.96 22.00
    Mike Clevinger 20.23 20.25
    Archie Bradley 18.08 18.04
    Matt Boyd 16.58 16.54
    Dillon Gee 15.41 15.45

  • rsigler65

    I don’t know, I guess the question is, what am I missing because this is what I’m getting: The 4 columns I’m using are ip, era, tw%, and k. How weird this is…what column are you using for wins? I feel like it must have something to do with that number.

    Name BATProj FDPts
    Madison Bumgarner 52.68 51.96
    Jacob deGrom 42.51 40.74
    Kyle Hendricks 35.12 34.71
    Aaron Sanchez 35.51 33.99
    Adam Conley 33.59 34.50
    Tyler Anderson 32.94 31.65
    Brandon McCarthy 31.89 31.71
    Kevin Gausman 32.19 30.15
    Zach Davies 31.74 29.73
    Masahiro Tanaka 31.34 29.16
    Hisashi Iwakuma 31.14 29.37
    Cole Hamels 31.70 26.52
    Collin McHugh 29.88 25.86
    Gerrit Cole 29.59 25.53
    Reynaldo Lopez 29.72 23.55
    Jerad Eickhoff 28.12 23.22
    Matt Andriese 26.09 25.29
    Clay Buchholz 27.33 24.93
    Tyler Duffey 27.00 22.95
    Dan Straily 25.35 24.66
    James Shields 26.00 20.34
    Luke Weaver 24.80 23.64
    Kendall Graveman 25.04 21.09
    Jarred Cosart 23.76 19.80
    Rob Whalen 21.33 19.08
    Matt Boyd 18.77 16.47
    Mike Clevinger 19.70 15.33
    Matt Shoemaker 18.92 11.73
    Archie Bradley 17.50 9.90
    Dillon Gee 15.10 8.85

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @rsigler65 said...

    I don’t know, I guess the question is, what am I missing because this is what I’m getting: The 4 columns I’m using are ip, era, tw%, and k. How weird this is…what column are you using for wins? I feel like it must have something to do with that number.

    Name BATProj FDPts
    Madison Bumgarner 52.68 51.96
    Jacob deGrom 42.51 40.74
    Kyle Hendricks 35.12 34.71
    Aaron Sanchez 35.51 33.99
    Adam Conley 33.59 34.50
    Tyler Anderson 32.94 31.65
    Brandon McCarthy 31.89 31.71
    Kevin Gausman 32.19 30.15
    Zach Davies 31.74 29.73
    Masahiro Tanaka 31.34 29.16
    Hisashi Iwakuma 31.14 29.37
    Cole Hamels 31.70 26.52
    Collin McHugh 29.88 25.86
    Gerrit Cole 29.59 25.53
    Reynaldo Lopez 29.72 23.55
    Jerad Eickhoff 28.12 23.22
    Matt Andriese 26.09 25.29
    Clay Buchholz 27.33 24.93
    Tyler Duffey 27.00 22.95
    Dan Straily 25.35 24.66
    James Shields 26.00 20.34
    Luke Weaver 24.80 23.64
    Kendall Graveman 25.04 21.09
    Jarred Cosart 23.76 19.80
    Rob Whalen 21.33 19.08
    Matt Boyd 18.77 16.47
    Mike Clevinger 19.70 15.33
    Matt Shoemaker 18.92 11.73
    Archie Bradley 17.50 9.90
    Dillon Gee 15.10 8.85

    Ah, that’ll do it. TW% is the percentage chance THE BAT gives the pitchers’ team to win the game, but if the pitcher’s team wins, the pitcher himself doesn’t get credited with a win 100% of the time (he leaves a tied game or a losing game and then his team comes back to win in the late innings, etc). The “W” column is the projection for the pitcher himself to be credited with a Win, which will always be smaller than the TW%. And that explains why the guys lower on the list are producing bigger errors using TW%. Because they’re projected to pitch poorly, they have a lower chance of being credited with a Win even if the team wins the game, whereas the guys at the top will have a W figure much closer to TW% since they’ll go deeper and are more likely to be responsible for any eventual win from the team.

  • rsigler65

    Well, I appreciate your looking into it but it seems like using that column would make it even worse. I can work around it at least until I hopefully figure it out. Thanks again.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @rsigler65 said...

    Well, I appreciate your looking into it but it seems like using that column would make it even worse. I can work around it at least until I hopefully figure it out. Thanks again.

    Did you calculate it out with that column? Every time I do it comes out fine. And you’re calculating out ER using ERA and IP correctly, right?

  • rsigler65

    OK…wow, that’s what it was. I was using ERA as ER. Works like a charm now – thanks again!!

  • rsigler65

    FYI, Fantasy Aces projections are a little lower than mine – I wonder if the old strike out deduction is still happening. They don’t deduct for K’s starting this year.

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