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  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    I couldn’t be happier to announce that my DFS MLB projection system, THE BAT, is launching today here at RotoGrinders! If you’ve used THE BAT over the past couple years, there’s probably not much more that I need to tell you; you know how much it can help your DFS game. If you haven’t heard of it yet, I’d like to think you’ll be happy you have now.

    What is THE BAT?

    I’ve developed THE BAT over the past six years and close to ten thousand hours, using skills and methods I’ve developed from my time in the sabermetric community working with some of the best baseball minds in the world, many of whom are now making decisions for Major League clubs. Skills and methods that help set THE BAT apart from your run-of-the-mill Vegas or wOBA model. Vegas and wOBA are shortcuts, plain and simple, and any model that relies on them will give you results and lineups that are shortcuts and, therefore, suboptimal. THE BAT goes well beyond that, incorporating everything wOBA or Vegas can tell you but in a more complex way and with plenty of layers and features on top. And it works with RotoGrinders’ Lineup Builder, helping you build your ideal lineups for both cash games and GPPs.

    Purchase THE BAT Here

    What Goes Into THE BAT?

    While I was developing my system, the code name I used for it was BATMAN, named after a certain caped crusader who 1) Is awesome, like I intended my system to be, and 2) Uses all sorts of gadgets to get the job done, which is the perfect analogy for my system. As far as I can tell, THE BAT takes into account more factors and has more features than any other system out there. You can get more details here, but to list a few, every single day THE BAT considers:

    • Opposing Hitter/Pitcher
    • Ballpark
    • Weather
    • Umpire
    • Catcher Throwing, Intimidation, and Framing
    • Bullpen
    • League
    • Home Field Advantage
    • Platoon Splits (Hitter/Pitcher/Park/Umpire/Catcher)
    • Role
    • Lineup Position
    • Quality of Surrounding Lineup
    • And more, explained further in THE BAT FAQ

    And THE BAT doesn’t just take what a player has done at face value. There’s a big difference between past performance and expected performance, and that’s why each one of these factors has its own underlying projection system so that THE BAT can have the best estimate of how well everyone and everything should perform going forward.

    What’s New for 2016?

    For those who’ve used THE BAT before, I hope you’ll be as excited as I am for some of the features that are new for 2016. While plenty of smaller upgrades have been made, the two biggest ones are the inclusion of weather data (temperature, wind, humidity, and several others that impact on-field performance) and minor league data.

    So when this year’s version of Carlos Correa gets called up, THE BAT will already have an exact projection for how good he is based on his entire professional career. Along with minor league data is Asian player data. With a record number of Asian imports this winter, DFS players will quickly realize they need to know their Byung Ho Parks (potential cleanup hitter for Minnesota) from their Kenta Maedas (Dodgers number-two starter). While other systems wait for these guys to accrue MLB stats or make a conservative initial guess, THE BAT is already taking into account their body of work Japan and Korea and translating it to the context of Major League Baseball.

    Wrigley Wind: No More Guesswork

    One of the most exciting parts of my new weather formulas is eliminating the guesswork on days when there is wind blowing in Wrigley. We all know wind can make a difference, especially in Wrigley, but how much of a difference? Instead of guessing how many guys to try and squeeze into your lineup, THE BAT will weigh the exact importance of the wind in conjunction with every other factor for the game and help you make the best decision possible.

    Why RotoGrinders?

    I debated taking THE BAT off the market this year to just use for my own play, but when it came down to it, I just love the DFS community. I love helping and teaching. That was why I started doing this in the first place, and that was one of the driving factors behind my decision to join RotoGrinders. This site and these forums are a community, and I’m looking forward to being a part of it and helping you all at DFS through my articles, expert chats, radio spots, GrindersLive appearances, and by making my projection system available.

    How Do I Buy THE BAT?

    Simply head over to this page and follow the instructions, to purchase THE BAT! – If you have any questions, please post them here, or feel free to email TheBAT@RotoGrinders.com at anytime. I’m happy to answer any questions you have about myself, THE BAT, or DFS in general.

    I wish you the best of luck this season! Just four days until Opening Day!

    THE BAT Projection System Tutorial Video

    Updates/Notes/FAQ (Last updated April 5th)

    - Feedback has been received on monthly subscriptions & trials. RG & I are talking over solutions, but in the mean time keep in mind that refunds are possible if you are unsatisfied. Please remember that this is a new product offering to RotoGrinders, and the Tech Team can’t immediately add a monthly or trial at the moment. We’ll continue to discuss solutions long-term, but the refund options is available for those interested in demoing THE BAT.

    - IMPORTANT NOTE: – Please keep all posts on-topic with questions related to THE BAT. Any posts about the industry as a whole, or not on-topic, will be removed. Thanks, The RG Mod Team

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @rsigler65 said...

    FYI, Fantasy Aces projections are a little lower than mine – I wonder if the old strike out deduction is still happening. They don’t deduct for K’s starting this year.

    Ah, shoot, thanks for pointing that out. They must not have announced it yet when I set it up.

  • CoronaLime

    I wonder if MLB seemingly being tougher to beat this year, has something to do with this product (and the information being shared), or New York residents not being able to play. Or maybe a little bit of both? I say that half tongue-in-cheek, but I really think there may be a little something to it.

  • wwhis

    Pitchers don’t load on The Bat page. Not lineup builder page.

  • VinnyT87

    Right now the BAT is not spitting out a default lineup, Mr. Carty please add to your default player pool so I can get my baseline (and compare it with my Yankees stack)

  • VinnyT87

    Never mind, we’re good

  • VinnyT87

    What does Derek Carty/the BAT have against Chris Sale? I remember a couple months ago when he/it called the Braves going off against Sale, tonight was a no-go though. Not hating, just curious. Was it the momentum factor and the fact that the A’s don’t strike out often and are decent against lefties? Do they hit cutters well?

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @VinnyT87 said...

    What does Derek Carty/the BAT have against Chris Sale? I remember a couple months ago when he/it called the Braves going off against Sale, tonight was a no-go though. Not hating, just curious. Was it the momentum factor and the fact that the A’s don’t strike out often and are decent against lefties? Do they hit cutters well?

    Tonight was about a few things: big park upgrade for OAK, a RHB-heavy lineup, U.S. Cellular being the second best park in baseball for RHB, all of those RHBs getting the platoon advantage against the LHP in Sale, 17-mph wind blowing out to left field (perfect for RHB), an extreme hitters’ umpire, and really cheap prices. Didn’t work out, but a lot of things were working in Oakland’s favor. THE BAT liked Sale 4th best of the night on the pitching side, but it did think OAK would put up a few runs, and with so much working in their favor and such a steep discount, I don’t think it was the wrong call. THE BAT will almost always be on the usual chalk that everyone likes (i.e. Coors), but it will sometimes go out on a limb with these types of calls when a whole bunch of factors just align perfectly like they did for Oakland tonight. More often than not, in my experience, it tends to work out (I believe that ATL night was an almost identical setup), but there are no guarantees when predicting the future. Sometimes an ace just aces out.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @VinnyT87 said...

    What does Derek Carty/the BAT have against Chris Sale? I remember a couple months ago when he/it called the Braves going off against Sale, tonight was a no-go though. Not hating, just curious. Was it the momentum factor and the fact that the A’s don’t strike out often and are decent against lefties? Do they hit cutters well?

    The other thing to keep in mind is what exactly the final points projections are comprised of. A park like U.S. Cellular tilts heavily towards home runs, especially when you consider that the wind tonight was a big factor. A situation like this is much more volatile than a park like Coors or Fenway, which are great for hits and extra base hits (which are of course much more common events). While parks like U.S. Cellular and Great American are great, if you don’t happen to hit those home runs, the same floor isn’t there and you could wind up with a goose-egg. This is especially true when there’s an ace pitcher, because if the park and weather don’t wind up creating homers, the ace can just shut them down. The Braves can score 11 or the A’s can score 2 in basically the exact same matchup given the added volatility of this type of play. It doesn’t make either one a bad match-up, just a higher variance one than an equally good matchup in a safer hitters’ park or against a weaker pitcher in a lesser park.

  • VinnyT87

    Awesome answer, that covered everything I wanted to know, thank you.

  • Rbrtdsnts

    Hey Derek, I was cramming in lineups before the 7pm slate last night and the system kept spitting out Scherzer and Stripling lineups.

    I figured Max was the #1 and Stripling was the best “points per dollar” guy of the night, so I went with it and didn’t really check behind the output (short on time).

    Shortly before lock I went back and looked at the “bat” page just to see how well stripling looked compared to others to find that Moore (giants pitcher) was actually 500 cheaper and a full point higher projections from the bat!

    Of course it was too late to manually change all my lineups, not to mention properly account for the extra 500 back from Moore.

    I dug deeper once games started and sure as heck moore didnt even appear on the lineup optimizer, so the system wasnt choosing him, and instead choose stripling as “the next best option”.

    Unfortunately its costing me a pretty penny last eve as moore did quite well comparatively.

    This isnt the first time I suspected this type of occurance, but its for sure the first time ive pin pointed that it occurs. How can I safely know if the lineup optimizer is actually using all the available players to choose lineups moving forward? Pretty big miss to be missing the best value pitcher of the eve on the lineup optimizer.

    Thanks
    Rob

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