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  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    I couldn’t be happier to announce that my DFS MLB projection system, THE BAT, is launching today here at RotoGrinders! If you’ve used THE BAT over the past couple years, there’s probably not much more that I need to tell you; you know how much it can help your DFS game. If you haven’t heard of it yet, I’d like to think you’ll be happy you have now.

    What is THE BAT?

    I’ve developed THE BAT over the past six years and close to ten thousand hours, using skills and methods I’ve developed from my time in the sabermetric community working with some of the best baseball minds in the world, many of whom are now making decisions for Major League clubs. Skills and methods that help set THE BAT apart from your run-of-the-mill Vegas or wOBA model. Vegas and wOBA are shortcuts, plain and simple, and any model that relies on them will give you results and lineups that are shortcuts and, therefore, suboptimal. THE BAT goes well beyond that, incorporating everything wOBA or Vegas can tell you but in a more complex way and with plenty of layers and features on top. And it works with RotoGrinders’ Lineup Builder, helping you build your ideal lineups for both cash games and GPPs.

    Purchase THE BAT Here

    What Goes Into THE BAT?

    While I was developing my system, the code name I used for it was BATMAN, named after a certain caped crusader who 1) Is awesome, like I intended my system to be, and 2) Uses all sorts of gadgets to get the job done, which is the perfect analogy for my system. As far as I can tell, THE BAT takes into account more factors and has more features than any other system out there. You can get more details here, but to list a few, every single day THE BAT considers:

    • Opposing Hitter/Pitcher
    • Ballpark
    • Weather
    • Umpire
    • Catcher Throwing, Intimidation, and Framing
    • Bullpen
    • League
    • Home Field Advantage
    • Platoon Splits (Hitter/Pitcher/Park/Umpire/Catcher)
    • Role
    • Lineup Position
    • Quality of Surrounding Lineup
    • And more, explained further in THE BAT FAQ

    And THE BAT doesn’t just take what a player has done at face value. There’s a big difference between past performance and expected performance, and that’s why each one of these factors has its own underlying projection system so that THE BAT can have the best estimate of how well everyone and everything should perform going forward.

    What’s New for 2016?

    For those who’ve used THE BAT before, I hope you’ll be as excited as I am for some of the features that are new for 2016. While plenty of smaller upgrades have been made, the two biggest ones are the inclusion of weather data (temperature, wind, humidity, and several others that impact on-field performance) and minor league data.

    So when this year’s version of Carlos Correa gets called up, THE BAT will already have an exact projection for how good he is based on his entire professional career. Along with minor league data is Asian player data. With a record number of Asian imports this winter, DFS players will quickly realize they need to know their Byung Ho Parks (potential cleanup hitter for Minnesota) from their Kenta Maedas (Dodgers number-two starter). While other systems wait for these guys to accrue MLB stats or make a conservative initial guess, THE BAT is already taking into account their body of work Japan and Korea and translating it to the context of Major League Baseball.

    Wrigley Wind: No More Guesswork

    One of the most exciting parts of my new weather formulas is eliminating the guesswork on days when there is wind blowing in Wrigley. We all know wind can make a difference, especially in Wrigley, but how much of a difference? Instead of guessing how many guys to try and squeeze into your lineup, THE BAT will weigh the exact importance of the wind in conjunction with every other factor for the game and help you make the best decision possible.

    Why RotoGrinders?

    I debated taking THE BAT off the market this year to just use for my own play, but when it came down to it, I just love the DFS community. I love helping and teaching. That was why I started doing this in the first place, and that was one of the driving factors behind my decision to join RotoGrinders. This site and these forums are a community, and I’m looking forward to being a part of it and helping you all at DFS through my articles, expert chats, radio spots, GrindersLive appearances, and by making my projection system available.

    How Do I Buy THE BAT?

    Simply head over to this page and follow the instructions, to purchase THE BAT! – If you have any questions, please post them here, or feel free to email TheBAT@RotoGrinders.com at anytime. I’m happy to answer any questions you have about myself, THE BAT, or DFS in general.

    I wish you the best of luck this season! Just four days until Opening Day!

    THE BAT Projection System Tutorial Video

    Updates/Notes/FAQ (Last updated April 5th)

    - Feedback has been received on monthly subscriptions & trials. RG & I are talking over solutions, but in the mean time keep in mind that refunds are possible if you are unsatisfied. Please remember that this is a new product offering to RotoGrinders, and the Tech Team can’t immediately add a monthly or trial at the moment. We’ll continue to discuss solutions long-term, but the refund options is available for those interested in demoing THE BAT.

    - IMPORTANT NOTE: – Please keep all posts on-topic with questions related to THE BAT. Any posts about the industry as a whole, or not on-topic, will be removed. Thanks, The RG Mod Team

  • DatDerFranny

    I’m interested, but I have reservations about his hair

  • wwhis

    The Bat may be great but RG advertises:
    RotoGrinders Incentives is our premium product. Tailored to a specific daily fantasy site and sport, our Incentives packages will provide you with the tools, stats, and expert picks you need to build better lineups. Select a site below to get started.
    However today we see: UPGRADE TO OUR MOST SOPHISTICATED MLB PROJECTIONS SYSTEM. YOUR LINEUPS WILL THANK YOU. and then Stop settling for run of the mill tools. Step up to THE BAT.

    So now RG premium baseball tools are run of the mill but still premium priced. Very disappointed in the way RG is handling this. If you add the cost of this new tool to your regular premium subscription you had best win.

    I just wished the adv for the bat had not trashed my “premium” product.

  • Ross
    @wwhis said...

    The Bat may be great but RG advertises:
    RotoGrinders Incentives is our premium product. Tailored to a specific daily fantasy site and sport, our Incentives packages will provide you with the tools, stats, and expert picks you need to build better lineups. Select a site below to get started.
    However today we see: UPGRADE TO OUR MOST SOPHISTICATED MLB PROJECTIONS SYSTEM. YOUR LINEUPS WILL THANK YOU. and then Stop settling for run of the mill tools. Step up to THE BAT.

    So now RG premium baseball tools are run of the mill but still premium priced. Very disappointed in the way RG is handling this. If you add the cost of this new tool to your regular premium subscription you had best win.

    I just wished the adv for the bat had not trashed my “premium” product.

    Hi,

    THE BAT is strictly a projection system and yes, its by far most advanced projections system we have seen to date.

    Our Premium content is much different. Yes, we have free FD/DK projections and even a free MLB model. Our Premium subscriptions consist of site specific Tools, Expert Consensus Rankings, In-depth analysis from experts, Expert Chat, and the newly added daily Game Selection, Pitching Primer, All-Value Lineup, and Tournament Tactics articles.
    I don’t feel THE BAT devalues the current Premium content in anyway and I think the two compliment each other nicely. If there is one thing I can assure you, its that our revamped Premium content is not “run of the mill”. I think you will enjoy what we have to offer this season.

    Hope that makes sense, feel free to message me if you have any questions.

  • chasec23

    I just want to know what catcher intimidation is …

  • Ross
    @chasec23 said...

    I just want to know what catcher intimidation is …

    :) You can find an explanation here

  • wwhis

    Perfectly. I just think the wording and placement could have been improved. I also think for them to truly compliment each other they should be seamless and a line up projection from the bat be integrated inside the RG line up builder.
    Thank you for your response.

  • tyrant1014

    @headChopper said...

    Yeah, if you’re playing $1 a day then I wouldn’t worry about investing in something this expensive. That would be like putting $5K worth of rims on a 1982 Pinto

    You dissin’ my pinto man?

  • Ross
    @wwhis said...

    I also think for them to truly compliment each other they should be seamless and a line up projection from the bat be integrated inside the RG line up builder.

    That is now available. Anyone who has purchased THE BAT has the option to load it from the lineup builder page.

  • MTro86

    RG Writer

    @qatman said...

    I don’t begrudge Derek cashing in on his product, and based on his prior work at BP etc. I am sure it has been successful. I will be interested to see how effective it is when hundreds or thousands of people are using it in the same contests. To me it saps the fun out of playing but I look forward to competing against lots of identical or nearly-identical entries in cash games this year.

    I envy what Derek has been able to put together and can appreciate the amount of work he’s put into it for which he has a right to profit, but this might be my concern as well if it is simply spitting out projections without components to the consumer. Another would be those playing low level stakes to where a $150 purchase is not in their budgets. The players who play higher and do use this tool are still going to be putting all those lineups in the lower stakes games as well. With recent innovations in some of the incredible tools available for purchase, it might be more important than ever that we eventually separate the same players from filling up higher and lower stakes games.

  • tvsfrink

    @DatDerFranny said...

    I’m interested, but I have reservations about his hair

    That was mean, but I laughed anyway.

  • kantiger77

    @MTro86 said...

    I envy what Derek has been able to put together and can appreciate the amount of work he’s put into it for which he has a right to profit, but this might be my concern as well if it is simply spitting out projections without components to the consumer. Another would be those playing low level stakes to where a $150 purchase is not in their budgets. The players who play higher and do use this tool are still going to be putting all those lineups in the lower stakes games as well. With recent innovations in some of the incredible tools available for purchase, it might be more important than ever that we eventually separate the same players from filling up higher and lower stakes games.

    This.

  • Raisenu

    I used it last year and will use it this year it’s worth a lot more than that thanks for all your hard Derek
    And rotorgrinders team

  • glennantz

    Some of us just do not have $150 in one shot to spend on DFS. A monthly charge would be a good way to go for many people.

  • CeeGee

    • 246

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #25

      RG Tiered Ranking

    $150 for 180 day Season seems pretty fair priced to me.
    Honestly, Its the cheapest on the market, just look around and you’ll see.

    Also, I haven’t seen this mentioned yet, and I think its the ELEPHANT in the room, and people really need to understand this point

    If you’re looking to purchase THE BAT and simply plug the “Optimal” lineup based on projections, into an optimizer and win tons of cash you probably shouldn’t spend the money on it. You also really shouldn’t be playing DFS at all, and you should find something else to do with your spare time. THE BAT is not a “get rich quick” scheme that you see on late night infomercials, its a TOOL that will help you become a better DFS MLB player… Its not going to spit out constant winning lineups daily. YOU still have to make the final decisions on the players, and your roster construction.

    There isn’t a single tool out that, that is going to generate projections for you daily, that will make you a +EV player if you just blindly play the lineups that are generated… All of the Top Players, that use optimizers, have finely tuned processes and ways to evaluate the players that their optimizers spit out to them… I highly doubt that any of the Pro’s simply “plug and play” anything spit out by their models.

    That being said, I’ll be making my purchase of THE BAT tomorrow… I wanted to purchase it last year, but, I didn’t want to buy all the extra stuff required through Fi last year. Derek’s reputation speaks for itself, and I don’t need a “trial” to know that it will help me become a better player. If you have any idea of who he is, and where / what he’s done in the past, you honestly shouldn’t need any sort of trial period either.

    -Cg

  • yoteach

    • Blogger of the Month

    Wow, some of you folks are awfully paranoid. I’ve purchased the BAT to form the centerpiece of my research, as I’ve done some digging and agree with the assertions that Derek and RG have made, that it’s one of, if not the most advanced projection system. I believe the investment is worth it in lieu of me trying to build and maintain my own. That doesn’t mean I’m going to choose the top X number of dudes everyday and blindly plug/play, nor will I even necessarily be able to do so with pricing, positions, etc. Every day over the last month, I’ve listened to Josh Lloyd of Basketball Monster, and a number of times he’s said things like, “Our projections love so and so; yeah, sorry, I don’t.” Same goes for BAT, I’ll take what it gives me, assess the spot and its projection, read whatever time allows for that slate from the fine cadre of RG premium contributors, consider game theory, and ultimately craft my own lineup/s. Others will be doing the same, and rest assured, we will not all have the same dang lineup! Try as any genius might, there are too many variables that come into play; no one will ever perfect predicting sport performances. I simply hope BAT, the fine folks here at RG, and ultimately my decision-making can help me come closer than I’ve come before with MLB!

    Edited to add: Yeah, what CG said (posted his while I was crafting mine)!

  • CeeGee

    • 246

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #25

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Fantasy Cruncher is a great tool. The RG Lineup Builder is a great tool. Daily Fantasy Nerd and all the other optimizer sites are all great in their own right.

    If you plug and play FROM ANY OF THEM, you’re going to lose more than you win… I have the data to prove it
    if anyone is interested

    On that 1 day, out of 25? or so, where that one “optimal” lineup hits hard, and you split 1st in a GPP with a bunch of other “new” players who used it, you wont make back the money you lost waiting for that one day.

    Develope your own process. Do your research, Find players you like, and manage your bankroll properly and you will set yourself up for success in any DFS Sport.

  • theputz

    “The LineupBuilder already allows you filter players (and create lineups) based on slate. We generally only deal with today’s games until midnight, at which point we will switch over to tomorrow’s slates. It’s also a great idea to put a “last updated” date on both pages, so you can best tell how recently confirmed lineups and news have been incorporated into the numbers.”

    Will this be different for Monday’s games? With all the big games and early start time it would be really hard if the projections are not available until then.

  • flip4flop

    Hopefully Monday’s game will be available before midnight the night before. Would like to be able to look at the big slate on Sunday.

    Just so I understand this correctly is what is displayed each day a weighted total of their career? Last season? I just want to ensure I understand the numbers and projection correctly.

    The W and L column on the Pitching tab what does a .39 represent? Is it percentage of winning if its under W? And this this solely based on the teams the are playing that day?

    Recommend adding a hover tool tip over each column that clearly indicates what each column means. Also will salaries be imported at some point? which will eliminate the need to switch windows constantly to check other locations

  • ElSlappo

    Is it possible to sort or break out by position?

    Also maybe I’m missing it but is it possible to display a value per $ ranking?

  • theleafnode

    Ok, that works for me, and thanks for being responsive to all the feedback. Just knowing that if it doesn’t fit my process I’m not out $150 is good enough for me.

    Can we still expect a quick tutorial/interface-intro video?

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @flip4flop said...

    Hopefully Monday’s game will be available before midnight the night before. Would like to be able to look at the big slate on Sunday.

    Just so I understand this correctly is what is displayed each day a weighted total of their career? Last season? I just want to ensure I understand the numbers and projection correctly.

    The W and L column on the Pitching tab what does a .39 represent? Is it percentage of winning if its under W? And this this solely based on the teams the are playing that day?

    Recommend adding a hover tool tip over each column that clearly indicates what each column means. Also will salaries be imported at some point? which will eliminate the need to switch windows constantly to check other locations

    Yes, the plan is to flip the projections for Monday’s games over shortly after Sunday locks.

    So the numbers that are displayed are the projected statistics for each player that day based on the set of circumstances he’s facing (at home facing X pitcher in X park with X weather etc.) They may look kind of strange at first because they’re decimals, like nobody can hit .19 of a HR. But you can’t just project 1 or 0 because that implies certainty that isn’t possible, so it’s a decimal based on the probability of the event happening. These numbers are the mean expectation. Hypothetically, if we were to play these exact matchups out millions of times, the guy who’s projected for .19 HR would hit an average of .19 HRs per game over those million games. Some games would be 1, a handful would be more than 1, and a bunch of games would be zero. All of the projected stats are based on probability, and they’re all added up at the end (with the site’s scoring system) to form the final projected points. So the W and L columns are the expected number of Wins and Losses that pitcher would generate in this scenario. A .39 W means the pitcher is projected for 39/100th of a Win given his matchup.

    As far as the weighted total part of the question, that does play a part in forming the underlying projections for players. The system looks at each stat individually and runs tests to figure out the number of past years and the proportion of each to use that will maximize accuracy. So maybe strikeouts need 5 years where each year is 25% more important than the one before while home runs need 2 years where each year is just 5% more important than the one before (making these up as examples, but that’s how it works). The process also accounts for the possibility that what the player did was driven by randomness based on the size of the sample he did it in (it doesn’t just accept that a pitcher posted a 35% K% in 25 IP at face value and assume he’s a true 35% K% pitcher going forward), and it accounts for aging. If it’s using 5 years worth of strikeouts and the player is 38 this year, it doesn’t take his age 33 year at face value — it adjusts it to represent what it would likely would have been had the player been 38 that year. It also adjusts based on all of the past matchups a player faced. If a batter played a bunch of games in hitters’ parks in high temperatures (good for offense), he receives less credit for what he did than the guy who played a bunch of games in pitchers’ parks in low temperatures. And players are profiled so that the big lumbering cleanup hitter is expected to hit more home runs than the short, speedy leadoff hitter.

    We’re talking about ways to make it clearer what all the columns mean, and there should be a glossary, at the very least, coming pretty soon. And yes, salaries, positions, and dollar/point will be added shortly.

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @ElSlappo said...

    Is it possible to sort or break out by position?

    Also maybe I’m missing it but is it possible to display a value per $ ranking?

    Yes, these are in the process of being added

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @theleafnode said...

    Ok, that works for me, and thanks for being responsive to all the feedback. Just knowing that if it doesn’t fit my process I’m not out $150 is good enough for me.

    Can we still expect a quick tutorial/interface-intro video?

    Yes, we’re working on getting the tutorial video out as soon as possible

  • mannmicj

    @fantasybeast15 said...

    I had no time to do research, so I just plugged in my best pitchers and used THE BAT’s optimal lineup

    And this is the new world of DFS. The projection does it all for the person…

    I love projections for OTHERS. It will funnel many folks (who don’t have time or are just lazy) to a similar lineup and keep them all bunched up in the middle of GPPs.

    I will stick to my own research just to avoid being in the middle of the pack.

  • rj3494

    It would be interesting to see “side by side” comparisons of the optimal lineup from The Bat’s projections vs the free Rotogrinders projections. I suspect they would not be that much different.. How about someone entering the optimal lineups for each of these projection systems for 2 weeks and share the results. I am assuming the lineup builder uses the same algorithm to produce a lineup regardless of the projections entered into it.

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