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  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    I couldn’t be happier to announce that my DFS MLB projection system, THE BAT, is launching today here at RotoGrinders! If you’ve used THE BAT over the past couple years, there’s probably not much more that I need to tell you; you know how much it can help your DFS game. If you haven’t heard of it yet, I’d like to think you’ll be happy you have now.

    What is THE BAT?

    I’ve developed THE BAT over the past six years and close to ten thousand hours, using skills and methods I’ve developed from my time in the sabermetric community working with some of the best baseball minds in the world, many of whom are now making decisions for Major League clubs. Skills and methods that help set THE BAT apart from your run-of-the-mill Vegas or wOBA model. Vegas and wOBA are shortcuts, plain and simple, and any model that relies on them will give you results and lineups that are shortcuts and, therefore, suboptimal. THE BAT goes well beyond that, incorporating everything wOBA or Vegas can tell you but in a more complex way and with plenty of layers and features on top. And it works with RotoGrinders’ Lineup Builder, helping you build your ideal lineups for both cash games and GPPs.

    Purchase THE BAT Here

    What Goes Into THE BAT?

    While I was developing my system, the code name I used for it was BATMAN, named after a certain caped crusader who 1) Is awesome, like I intended my system to be, and 2) Uses all sorts of gadgets to get the job done, which is the perfect analogy for my system. As far as I can tell, THE BAT takes into account more factors and has more features than any other system out there. You can get more details here, but to list a few, every single day THE BAT considers:

    • Opposing Hitter/Pitcher
    • Ballpark
    • Weather
    • Umpire
    • Catcher Throwing, Intimidation, and Framing
    • Bullpen
    • League
    • Home Field Advantage
    • Platoon Splits (Hitter/Pitcher/Park/Umpire/Catcher)
    • Role
    • Lineup Position
    • Quality of Surrounding Lineup
    • And more, explained further in THE BAT FAQ

    And THE BAT doesn’t just take what a player has done at face value. There’s a big difference between past performance and expected performance, and that’s why each one of these factors has its own underlying projection system so that THE BAT can have the best estimate of how well everyone and everything should perform going forward.

    What’s New for 2016?

    For those who’ve used THE BAT before, I hope you’ll be as excited as I am for some of the features that are new for 2016. While plenty of smaller upgrades have been made, the two biggest ones are the inclusion of weather data (temperature, wind, humidity, and several others that impact on-field performance) and minor league data.

    So when this year’s version of Carlos Correa gets called up, THE BAT will already have an exact projection for how good he is based on his entire professional career. Along with minor league data is Asian player data. With a record number of Asian imports this winter, DFS players will quickly realize they need to know their Byung Ho Parks (potential cleanup hitter for Minnesota) from their Kenta Maedas (Dodgers number-two starter). While other systems wait for these guys to accrue MLB stats or make a conservative initial guess, THE BAT is already taking into account their body of work Japan and Korea and translating it to the context of Major League Baseball.

    Wrigley Wind: No More Guesswork

    One of the most exciting parts of my new weather formulas is eliminating the guesswork on days when there is wind blowing in Wrigley. We all know wind can make a difference, especially in Wrigley, but how much of a difference? Instead of guessing how many guys to try and squeeze into your lineup, THE BAT will weigh the exact importance of the wind in conjunction with every other factor for the game and help you make the best decision possible.

    Why RotoGrinders?

    I debated taking THE BAT off the market this year to just use for my own play, but when it came down to it, I just love the DFS community. I love helping and teaching. That was why I started doing this in the first place, and that was one of the driving factors behind my decision to join RotoGrinders. This site and these forums are a community, and I’m looking forward to being a part of it and helping you all at DFS through my articles, expert chats, radio spots, GrindersLive appearances, and by making my projection system available.

    How Do I Buy THE BAT?

    Simply head over to this page and follow the instructions, to purchase THE BAT! – If you have any questions, please post them here, or feel free to email TheBAT@RotoGrinders.com at anytime. I’m happy to answer any questions you have about myself, THE BAT, or DFS in general.

    I wish you the best of luck this season! Just four days until Opening Day!

    THE BAT Projection System Tutorial Video

    Updates/Notes/FAQ (Last updated April 5th)

    - Feedback has been received on monthly subscriptions & trials. RG & I are talking over solutions, but in the mean time keep in mind that refunds are possible if you are unsatisfied. Please remember that this is a new product offering to RotoGrinders, and the Tech Team can’t immediately add a monthly or trial at the moment. We’ll continue to discuss solutions long-term, but the refund options is available for those interested in demoing THE BAT.

    - IMPORTANT NOTE: – Please keep all posts on-topic with questions related to THE BAT. Any posts about the industry as a whole, or not on-topic, will be removed. Thanks, The RG Mod Team

  • CeeGee

    • 131

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #14

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Every optimizer will give you the same lineup(s) if you use the same projections.

    Projections themselves are extremely volatile.

    Optimizers will not take anything into account other than the final “projection” so you’re not going to be able to plug and play and have success (long term) with any of them.

  • texasfiter

    $150 for a 6 month season. How about $30 a month on a subscription basis as another option?

  • simsina

    @DerekCarty said...

    the guy who’s projected for .19 HR would hit an average of .19 HRs per game

    So do you bet player props a lot using this model? and if so have you been successful and if no, why aren’t you ?

  • DerekCarty

    ESPN, RotoGrinders - Creator of The BAT, MLB Scout School Grad, LABR Champ

    @simsina said...

    So do you bet player props a lot using this model? and if so have you been successful and if no, why aren’t you ?

    I haven’t, mostly because of time and not knowing how to do it legally, but it is something I’ve thought about looking into.

  • mjordantmac

    • 2016 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    I’m another one that would love to see an export feature. Not everyone goes through the same process and I would love to have this information in a csv.

  • flip4flop

    @DerekCarty said...

    Yes, the plan is to flip the projections for Monday’s games over shortly after Sunday locks.

    So the numbers that are displayed are the projected statistics for each player that day based on the set of circumstances he’s facing (at home facing X pitcher in X park with X weather etc.) They may look kind of strange at first because they’re decimals, like nobody can hit .19 of a HR. But you can’t just project 1 or 0 because that implies certainty that isn’t possible, so it’s a decimal based on the probability of the event happening. These numbers are the mean expectation. Hypothetically, if we were to play these exact matchups out millions of times, the guy who’s projected for .19 HR would hit an average of .19 HRs per game over those million games. Some games would be 1, a handful would be more than 1, and a bunch of games would be zero. All of the projected stats are based on probability, and they’re all added up at the end (with the site’s scoring system) to form the final projected points. So the W and L columns are the expected number of Wins and Losses that pitcher would generate in this scenario. A .39 W means the pitcher is projected for 39/100th of a Win given his matchup.

    As far as the weighted total part of the question, that does play a part in forming the underlying projections for players. The system looks at each stat individually and runs tests to figure out the number of past years and the proportion of each to use that will maximize accuracy. So maybe strikeouts need 5 years where each year is 25% more important than the one before while home runs need 2 years where each year is just 5% more important than the one before (making these up as examples, but that’s how it works). The process also accounts for the possibility that what the player did was driven by randomness based on the size of the sample he did it in (it doesn’t just accept that a pitcher posted a 35% K% in 25 IP at face value and assume he’s a true 35% K% pitcher going forward), and it accounts for aging. If it’s using 5 years worth of strikeouts and the player is 38 this year, it doesn’t take his age 33 year at face value — it adjusts it to represent what it would likely would have been had the player been 38 that year. It also adjusts based on all of the past matchups a player faced. If a batter played a bunch of games in hitters’ parks in high temperatures (good for offense), he receives less credit for what he did than the guy who played a bunch of games in pitchers’ parks in low temperatures. And players are profiled so that the big lumbering cleanup hitter is expected to hit more home runs than the short, speedy leadoff hitter.

    We’re talking about ways to make it clearer what all the columns mean, and there should be a glossary, at the very least, coming pretty soon. And yes, salaries, positions, and dollar/point will be added shortly.

    Thank you for taking the time to write and explain that all. Much appreciated. You have my business for the season.

  • simsina

    @DerekCarty said...

    I haven’t, mostly because of time and not knowing how to do it legally, but it is something I’ve thought about looking into.

    Fair enough. I have a problem with people selling their projection systems / lineups. If you truly think you have a projections system thats good as any out there, why even share it, unless the reason is you make more from selling it then winning in DFS. Furthermore, what people will do is use your projections, put them in a lineup optimizer and voila they have a lineup. I honestly think these types of products are only bad for the industry long term. Sure its good for fanduel and rotogrinders to have players continue to pay rake and breakeven but its short sighted for people with an edge.

  • blimes

    I subscribed to it can’t wait to give it a try. Just a couple things i would like some of these have been talked about is a excel or csv export, a time stamp when the last update was,a way to separate by slate or individual games and maybe something that will mark the player as confirmed starter for the day when the lineups are released.

  • Old_Man53

    @proshares said...

    Last year was my first year playing MLB DFS and I almost exclusively used The BAT’s projections when it was on FI. I’d highly recommend it to anyone who can afford it and wants to get serious/be profitable in MLB DFS. It helped immensely, I was someone who likes to think I know a ton about MLB but close to nothing about MLB DFS and The BAT pretty much got me close to the top 1,000 in MLB.

    RANKINGS SUMMARY———> https://rotogrinders.com/profiles/proshares Where are your MLB Points?

  • Ross
    @Old_Man53 said...

    RANKINGS SUMMARY———> https://rotogrinders.com/profiles/proshares Where are your MLB Points?

    Everyone’s 2015 MLB rankings have been reset for the 2016 season..

  • BRORANNOSAURUS_FLEX

    • 24

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #3

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x4

      2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    I’m interested, but need the ability to export to excel. If you can clarify this, I’m in.

  • MRCOOKONUTS

    Have you ever tracked past success rates?

  • DanteHemi

    Really thinking about getting this. Just a few questions. – assuming I have never looked at or even know how to use a tool like this, will I be able to make it work for me? How will I know what to do with the information I’m looking at? – what is the advantage of having this available in Excel? (Once again very ignorant to this whole thing) – just so I know what I’m buying…this is a tool that provides me with a lot of info about the the days games and by interpretation I should be able to decide who best to play in my lineup? Is there suggested plays also? Or am I completely alone on deciding my plays? I know that having a set lineup provided to me won’t be good and I was just wondering if you provide like “value” plays on certain guys that find them self in a favourable matchup, or is that up to me to figure out by looking at the data?

  • kieff5280

    • Blogger of the Month

    I am curious what you mean by that? I have seen times where somebody will ask Derek, “what about so and so, The Bat loves him” and Derek kind of brushes it off or disagrees with it…. There are still decisions to be made. With tomorrow’s slate, his model loves a ton of outfielders, but you can’t play them all in a single lineup, and if you make a ton of lineups, you were going to include those guys anyway. At some point you have to make decisions.

  • Old_Man53

    Ok, I have spent all day looking through the world wide web and I cant find hardly anything on “The Bat”. I will not say if what i found is positive or negative, there is just not much out there on this new product RG has put in. I want to put 150 dollars into this product, but something is not letting me. We all know to make money in DFS sometimes you have to follow your gut. And my gut tells me something does not smell right. Please, somebody tell me where to go to read something on this product. If not i will keep my 150 dollars or let my wife go buy another pair of shoes.

  • ebsteelers

    so whats the difference between this and fantasylabs that jon bales and csuram say is the best thing since slice bread. if money isnt an object which one is better? i’ve seen csurams win big gpps, but what about derek? so on and so forth

  • Ryazan

    • x3

      2015 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2015 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    1) If I am understanding this correct, everyone thinks they will win if they use projection models – everyone can’t win, that’s not the way it works, so that’s reason 1 that any and all models won’t work. Because if everyone is using the same models, then everyone will just cancel each other out.

    2) If anyone thinks that ANY model can predict what an MLB player will do day in/day out, then you’re in for a rude awakening. That is not how to win in MLB dfs, but by all means, purchase your models and paralyze yourselves with over-analysis. I remember those days too.

  • wwhis

    You gut is correct. A pig in a bag is a pig in a bag. This is a bag you can’t look into until you buy it. I have not payed DFS baseball before so I am in a wait and see mode. If I see a product I can use I will continue with my premium membership if not I will cancel until football reappears and try some other “best thing since peanut butter $$optimizer$$. I also agree with Ryazan no model can predict what what any athlete will do.

  • Ross
    @Old_Man53 said...

    We all know to make money in DFS sometimes you have to follow your gut. And my gut tells me something does not smell right. Please, somebody tell me where to go to read something on this product. If not i will keep my 150 dollars or let my wife go buy another pair of shoes.

    If you have questions feel free to ask them here, we will also have a video of THE BAT in use shortly. That should give you a good idea of how it works, so if you’re undecided it may be best to wait until then. Saying “something doesn’t smell right” is pretty ridiculous. We’re offering a new product from one of the top baseball minds in the world, no one is being pressured into buying it, and we have said anyone unhappy after trying it out for a few days can get a no questions asked refund.
    If you’re looking for information on Derek and his past work his website is here. If you’re looking for a new pair of shoes for your wife try here :)

  • RabidKeith

    OK, still hoping to fall in love with this projection system, but…
    1) BAT still lists Brad Miller as TB leadoff hitter even though confirmed lineup is out with Logan Forsythe batting leadoff? When will real-time instant accurate projections be turned on?
    2) Lineup builder tool has been down all morning. When will this be fixed? Since BAT page doesn’t allow sorting by position or exporting, it’s not useful unless it’s seamlessly integrated with lineup builder.

  • Ross
    @RabidKeith said...

    OK, still hoping to fall in love with this projection system, but…
    1) BAT still lists Brad Miller as TB leadoff hitter even though confirmed lineup is out with Logan Forsythe batting leadoff? When will real-time instant accurate projections be turned on?
    2) Lineup builder tool has been down all morning. When will this be fixed? Since BAT page doesn’t allow sorting by position or exporting, it’s not useful unless it’s seamlessly integrated with lineup builder.

    Hi,
    Sorry, the lineup builder is now live. I do see Brad Miller listed as 6th both places, can you refresh and let me know if you see him hitting leadoff.

  • Ross
    @Ryazan said...

    1) If I am understanding this correct, everyone thinks they will win if they use projection models – everyone can’t win, that’s not the way it works, so that’s reason 1 that any and all models won’t work. Because if everyone is using the same models, then everyone will just cancel each other out.

    2) If anyone thinks that ANY model can predict what an MLB player will do day in/day out, then you’re in for a rude awakening. That is not how to win in MLB dfs, but by all means, purchase your models and paralyze yourselves with over-analysis. I remember those days too.

    Quoting Derek from this post since it covers some of the recent questions here.

    “What needs to be understood for anyone playing DFS MLB with the goal of winning (and which I’m sure most RG readers understand) is that even though it’s called “daily fantasy,” it truly needs to be approached from a long-term perspective. Anything can happen in a short amount of time — Mike Trout has weeks where he hits .125 — but in the long-run things even out. While anything can happen in a one-week test drive, win or lose it shouldn’t make any difference to someone who is looking to use THE BAT effectively. While there are no guarantees when it comes to predicting the future, the sound methodology, process, and analytical rigor behind THE BAT (and its track record) stand on their own. And it’s important for anyone hoping to use a system like THE BAT effectively (or anyone hoping to profit from DFS in general) to realize that a sound process is vastly more important than any results of a trial sample.”

  • 77racing

    @RRT said...

    Quoting Derek from this post since it covers some of the recent questions here.

    “What needs to be understood for anyone playing DFS MLB with the goal of winning (and which I’m sure most RG readers understand) is that even though it’s called “daily fantasy,” it truly needs to be approached from a long-term perspective. Anything can happen in a short amount of time — Mike Trout has weeks where he hits .125 — but in the long-run things even out. While anything can happen in a one-week test drive, win or lose it shouldn’t make any difference to someone who is looking to use THE BAT effectively. While there are no guarantees when it comes to predicting the future, the sound methodology, process, and analytical rigor behind THE BAT (and its track record) stand on their own. And it’s important for anyone hoping to use a system like THE BAT effectively (or anyone hoping to profit from DFS in general) to realize that a sound process is vastly more important than any results of a trial sample.”

    Again that’s up to the customer to decide if he/she feels the producr is right for them and a TRIAL sample does just that gives them a taste of whey that product can do//Nobody is expecting a miracle cure for a winning lineup each day

  • RabidKeith

    @RRT said...

    Hi,
    Sorry, the lineup builder is now live. I do see Brad Miller listed as 6th both places, can you refresh and let me know if you see him hitting leadoff.

    On the BAT projections page, I still see Miller listed as leadoff. He’s listed as batting 6th on lineup builder, but his BAT projection still seems to be built on assumption he’s batting leadoff.

    If you guys are having challenges incorporating BAT projections, that’s ok, but I want to understand if and when they will be updating on a real-time basis.

    This is maybe a question for Derek. Once lineups are out, how long should it be until projections are updated on BAT page and lineup builder page? If wind changes direction at Wrigley, how long until HR projections get changed? If the projected home plate umpire with a big strike zone gets sick and is replaced by one with smaller K zone, how quickly can we expect K projections to be updated?

    Are projections being updated on a second-by-second basis or is it more like every few minutes or every half hour? This is really important for me to understand when determining if I will keep the product or ask for a refund.

    Thanks in advance! I really appreciate how responsive you’re all being with feedback!

  • kieff5280

    • Blogger of the Month

    I am amazed at the number of people who are critical of an optional product they do not have to own.

    That said, I am curious about how often updates will happen on a “normal day”. I like seeing something the night before or early morning but it would be nice if there was a midday update based on posted lineups.

    If it doesnt, thats OK, it is part of the strategy finding pivots and whatnot.

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