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  • whodat2

    When: June 11-14

    Where: Fort Worth, Texas

    Course: Colonial CC | A par 70 playing at 7204 yards.

    Last Year’s Winner: Kevin Na at -13

    Last Year’s Cut: +2

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | CBS

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    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • NDNole

    @timusbr said...

    This week more than any other in the last few years is a swing for the fences.

    I started out with thinking just 1 top tier guy salary wise. After making a few LU’s….I found my salary issue is I want to keep paying up…..But I got a hunch 50K wont be anywhere near the optimal LU.

    I agree. Though I cant see all of the 9k – 10k not being in the top ten. One or two of the for sure is gonna get in.

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 389

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    Only top tier salary guys I am liking so far are JT, Bryson and Webb.

    Love the $9k and under range on DK. Some of the best CH is at $8k and below.

    Haven’t really needed to go under $6800 yet in building my first lineups.

  • futoo

    thoughts on kuchar?

  • BIF

    @timusbr said...

    Its DJ….. but he hasn’t scored enough for his salary in awhile (imho)
    DJ isnt the only guy who seems like he could be a sweet treat. Jordan Spieth has this course on auto memory @8000.

    He did when he was still the old Jordan Spieth of 2015-2017 with his 2-1-2 finishes but I’m not sure about the 2018-2019-2020 version of himself with a 32nd, 8th and no great finishes this year.

    He’s probably priced appropriately where you can afford to mix him in but going heavy has its risks for a guy who can’t hit fairways anymore especially at a tight golf course AND no fans to hit/stop your ball from going deeper into the trees.

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    Awesemo’s website posted a very interesting article: https://www.awesemo.com/pga/pga-dfs-charles-schwab-challenge-millionaire-maker-preview/.

    I know it’s not a major, but the field is very strong and DK’s main contest is a milly maker, so it sure feels like one.

    Usual recipe for the milly:
    -Lock in Koepka and Finau
    -2-3 top 10 OWGR (including Koepka)
    -Use at least $49.8K
    -2-3 under 10% guys
    -4 in a row had no one under $7K and no one over $10.2K, but the last 3 had at least one under $7K and one over $11K.

  • BIF

    @monarch said...

    Thanks. I’ve done a little digging and I get the fade DJ angles. Perhaps he’s rusty, not motivated, all of that stuff and that’s probably the correct angle. But I’ll make some lineups as if he will perform better than those expectations.

    DJ has only played here twice since 2008 with an MC and a 14th – the course traditionally does not set up well for the bomb and gouge players though a couple have finished 2nd in recent years (Koepka and Finau) but otherwise this is a short straight hitters course who can putt with recent wins here by Na, Kisner, Spieth (when he could hit it straight) and Chris Kirk

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @BIF said...

    DJ has only played here twice since 2008 with an MC and a 14th – the course traditionally does not set up well for the bomb and gouge players though a couple have finished 2nd in recent years (Koepka and Finau) but otherwise this is a short straight hitters course who can putt with recent wins here by Na, Kisner, Spieth (when he could hit it straight) and Chris Kirk

    DJ indeed feels like a trap, but even though he’s a bomber, he was able to win on any course not so long ago. The same applies for Koepka. Those two and Rose feel underpriced compared to what we have seen in the past few years.

    And then, there’s Spieth. Has he lost his talent? Does he not care anymore?

  • mogan11

    @BIF said...

    DJ has only played here twice since 2008 with an MC and a 14th – the course traditionally does not set up well for the bomb and gouge players though a couple have finished 2nd in recent years (Koepka and Finau) but otherwise this is a short straight hitters course who can putt with recent wins here by Na, Kisner, Spieth (when he could hit it straight) and Chris Kirk

    Thoughts on Kirk? Hasn’t done much recently and the pricing doesn’t dictate a need to dip down to 6.7, but that CH is juicy.

  • BIF

    @mogan11 said...

    Thoughts on Kirk? Hasn’t done much recently and the pricing doesn’t dictate a need to dip down to 6.7, but that CH is juicy.

    Well Kirk is a tough one as he was dealing with a substance abuse (alcohol) issue and depression so he took a self-imposed leave for a few months and then just came back at end of fall swing only to have the Tour shut down a couple months later.

    https://www.golfdigest.com/story/chris-kirk-reveals-battles-with-alcoholism-in-pga-tour-interview

  • NDNole

    @Felixxberg said...

    Awesemo’s website posted a very interesting article: https://www.awesemo.com/pga/pga-dfs-charles-schwab-challenge-millionaire-maker-preview/.

    I know it’s not a major, but the field is very strong and DK’s main contest is a milly maker, so it sure feels like one.

    Usual recipe for the milly:
    -Lock in Koepka and Finau
    -2-3 top 10 OWGR (including Koepka)
    -Use at least $49.8K
    -2-3 under 10% guys
    -4 in a row had no one under $7K and no one over $10.2K, but the last 3 had at least one under $7K and one over $11K.

    So I guess that means my Burgoon take is probably a waste of time.

  • monarch

    I’ve got one for you guys. Putnam 6900.

    CH, T10 strokes gained putting the last two years and this course apparently favors the stronger putters.

  • marker0357

    Finau love?

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 389

      RG Overall Ranking

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    You want par 70 specialists here as well as players who have top line par 4 scoring. Two par 5s only one of them is reachable in 2 shots.

    I’m going anti-bomber this week. Also, there will most likely be a lot of lost balls.

  • monarch

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    You want par 70 specialists here as well as players who have top line par 4 scoring. Two par 5s only one of them is reachable in 2 shots.

    I’m going anti-bomber this week. Also, there will most likely be a lot of lost balls.

    I agree. And lots of time looking for errant tee shots and frustrated playing partners when certain golfers spend an additional three minutes every other hole looking for their tee shot.

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    @NDNole said...

    So I guess that means my Burgoon take is probably a waste of time.

    It’s kind of enticing to take a lower owned punt with the $50K round bonus DK is running with the Milly Maker. If one of these guys below $7K comes out firing in the first round and gets the low score, splitting that money between 2-3% of players will be nice.

    My lottery tickets are:

    Scott Brown
    Brian Stuard

  • BrianVT

    @monarch said...

    I’ve got one for you guys. Putnam 6900.

    CH, T10 strokes gained putting the last two years and this course apparently favors the stronger putters.

    For sure! I always have some Putnam.

  • NDNole

    @mitchsnyderdfw said...

    It’s kind of enticing to take a lower owned punt with the $50K round bonus DK is running with the Milly Maker. If one of these guys below $7K comes out firing in the first round and gets the low score, splitting that money between 2-3% of players will be nice.

    My lottery tickets are:

    Scott Brown
    Brian Stuard

    Yeah, Im sticking to playing him in one lineup for that reason.

  • BrianVT

    Thoughts on Jason Day tweaking his back after about the 6th hole?

  • timusbr

    @BIF said...

    AND no fans to hit/stop your ball from going deeper into the trees.

    I am looking to use him 50+ percent. My thinking is to go with 1/2 dozen cores and building on them. probably end with 100 or so LU’s.

    My thinking is whats the difference between Rahm at 11000 and Spieth at 8000. Why not anyone 7K over most of the 9K+.
    everyone has been off for weeks, no spectators will be weird for many, something covid could throw a monkey wrench into things. Its gonna be HOT, fry an egg hot. So we have seen many of the older guys find a week to put it together. Well Spieth is now an older guy (lol) Unfortunately for me I have about 15 guys from 6800 to 7200 I feel could jump up and win. (could not will)

  • Felixxberg

    • 2019 DraftKings FGWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FHWC Finalist

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    You want par 70 specialists here as well as players who have top line par 4 scoring. Two par 5s only one of them is reachable in 2 shots.

    I’m going anti-bomber this week. Also, there will most likely be a lot of lost balls.

    Any must plays according to you?

  • Logan7777

    Looks like the end of the era of the google doc we’ve all been using:

    https://smartgolfbets.com/tournament-sheets/

  • ifthethunder

    @BrianVT said...

    Thoughts on Jason Day tweaking his back after about the 6th hole?

    I’m staying away. OTOH I am now finding it hard to keep Webb Simpson out of all my lineups. (I’m making 5, until I crack and end up dividing one or two into more.)
    ~

  • monarch

    @ifthethunder said...

    I’m staying away. OTOH I am now finding it hard to keep Webb Simpson out of all my lineups. (I’m making 5, until I crack and end up dividing one or two into more.)
    ~

    I can make a nice case against Webb if you like….maybe it can help you go from 100 to 60 percent lol

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 330

      RG Overall Ranking

    @monarch said...

    I can make a nice case against Webb if you like….maybe it can help you go from 100 to 60 percent lol

    Do tell!

  • monarch

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    Do tell!

    whats his win equity in a field like this? I know he won a US Open but we’ve seen some longshots do that. Does he have more win equity than even a cheaper and lesser owned Patrick Reed? Or a cheaper DJ in a field like this? I’m not sure he does. Xander wins tournaments as well and I think Justin Rose has more win equity in this field. Webb is a safer pick and beats Rose like 75/100 or something like that but Rose wins more IMO.

    So say you go 100 percent Webb at 9800 you either need him to win one of the best fields all season or you need him to do very well and likely identify a lower cost option that wins like a Na type which is possible. Its less likely that Rory wins and you also have Webb and then nail the other four picks with what salary you have available (7100/four golfers).

    I think its more likely you hit a winner like Rory, Rahm, JT, Bryson…skip Webb/Morikawa and go balanced after that.

    Webb is the best course fit in my opinion for his price but there may be another way to win if Webb just kinda T-10s out there. Lots of guys are going to finish around where he finishes….if he doesn’t win that is.

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