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  • whodat2

    When: May 27-30

    Where: Fort Worth, Texas

    Course: Colonial CC | A par 70 playing at 7204 yards.

    Last Year’s Winner: Daniel Berger at -15

    Last Year’s Cut: -2

    Coverage: PGATourLive | Golf Channel | CBS

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • RudyPujols

    @timusbr said...

    LOL the probability of me making any money at all?

    Am I that bad at Golf DFS? are my picks really bad, maybe my MME strategy of tight groups is wrong.

    Thanks for the vote of confidence :)

    You know for the fun of it… we both play the minimax…. side bet???? Best ROI over 4 weeks on minimax. from what I can tell by the comments this week the only difference we have is 150 LU’s vs less LU’s. I know in so few weeks, it really comes down to who has the best week of the 4 but it goes to show us a glimps

    Tim, I am no math whiz or DFS sharp, but one thing I don’t get is the idea of min cash playing such a huge perceived role in ROI.

    My belief is that in a high variance sport like golf, any chance at a strong long term ROI comes from wins and Top 10s. And I agree completely with Brian, Mitch, and company that single entries and maxing multi-entries gives you the best chances at that/bang for your buck.

    That said my only PGA 20-max win only had 14 lineups (and also took 2nd with a 1v1), and the only reason I am a career positive ROI player was a freaking luckbox giant 20-max MLB win on a single bullet. So my actual anecdotal results belie my own theory, it seems. I’d throw in a cliche about better to be lucky than good, but I ain’t good and thus can’t make the comparison.

    My $0.02, and not worth same.

  • BrianVT

    @ifthethunder said...

    Anyways, the best way to settle this is for me to have a real nice lineup again, I’m in all of them this week. (I always start my lineups by putting 20 in the big dimetime, making my assorted core cascades to make 20 different, then entering them all in the big quarter contest, the big quarter ticket contest, and then so on.)

    I’ll take you up on it since I max it every week anyhow, but like you said, it will just boil down to whether we hit the right golfers. I can tell you, I rarely make money in the mini-max, but did win it once, so I’m a big fan. I do better in 20 and 3 max, as well as single double ups.

    Edit: Oops, somehow quoted the wrong post. This was for Tim offering a side bet.

    “You know for the fun of it… we both play the minimax…. side bet???? Best ROI over 4 weeks on minimax. from what I can tell by the comments this week the only difference we have is 150 LU’s vs less LU’s. I know in so few weeks, it really comes down to who has the best week of the 4 but it goes to show us a glimps”

  • lfn1992

    @BrianVT said...

    I love it! But how will you ensure you have an equally successful prior week (of picking golfers) to compare to?

    I won’t but what I will have is some base percentages on how many make the cut/miss the cut, top LU/payout, number of min cash/payout, overall payout.

    So we can compare: if I went single LU and I put in my best LU, I’d have made X. with MME I put in $75, I get X, Y comes from this best LU, Z comes from min cashing with my awesome player pool.

  • timusbr

    @BrianVT said...

    Had nothing to do with confidence in your DFS skills. Just math and human nature (playing against people making 150 lineups).

    you say the math is obvious for you. OK, I agree to disagree. Perhaps my 5 years of looking at my weekly ROI and what contests I played in, my analysis has been all wrong (NOT)

    Dk does change things up but a lot of time the contests are the same percentages; amount to 1st place, amount of entries cashed, and the min cash. There was a time all contest min cashes were 2x. We lost a lot of good people who could not maintain after DK change. We had lots of conversations on the topic at the time.

  • BrianVT

    @timusbr said...

    There was a time all contest min cashes were 2x.

    I’m really surprised how hung-up you are on 2x min cash when entering 20 lineups in a 150-max contest that cashes 21% of 71k lineups, but I will agree to let the math percolate in my head a little longer. Fair?

  • Lamms30

    I’ll play…

    Winner – Reed over Morikawa
    Fade – JT and Spieth
    Sleepers – McCarthy and Stuard

  • timusbr

    @RudyPujols said...

    Tim, I am no math whiz or DFS sharp, but one thing I don’t get is the idea of min cash playing such a huge perceived role in ROI.

    sorry, i keep jumping in and out of the thread doing snake drafts.

    I dont expect winners every week, lets say out of 5 weeks
    1st is a break even
    2nd a win 3x
    3rd total loss
    4th total loss
    5th break even

    Now breaking even is generally meant as I got out what I put in but with 150 LU’s break even is maybe a bit more or a bit less. Those differences are pretty much how many min cash spots you hit. I believe the more min cash’s in a year will make or break your bankroll. Now a win is what solves all problems… but now think about the difference in min cash 2x vs 1.5x or 1.6x thats 20-25% less money for the ROI.

    I know I will eventually get some good weeks, but those min cashes add up to see if your profitable without having to win more often.

  • taford14

    Winner: WILLY
    Fade: Spieth(just because of cost)
    Sleeper: Stuard

  • timusbr

    @BrianVT said...

    I’m really surprised how hung-up you are on 2x min cash when entering 20 lineups in a 150-max contest that cashes 21% of 71k lineups, but I will agree to let the math percolate in my head a little longer. Fair?

    is that the issue… I settled on 20 LU’s this week.

    honestly thats a rarity for me. usually its more maybe I average 60+ a week. But I am not hung up on needing 150. If I use all 150 great, but I usually dont. this week I could have stopped at 16 but made 4 extra for 20.

  • Getty33

    Winner : Not fade away Spieth, but Scotty Shef is an interesting pivot.
    Fade : J Thomas. Has looked very uncomfortable lately.
    Sleeping : I swore last week I needed more Ortiz and less Grillo in the future. And once again the winner of the 2021 Valero Texas Open is priced lower than his South American counter part. I’m learning

  • BrianVT

    @timusbr said...

    is that the issue… I settled on 20 LU’s this week.

    honestly thats a rarity for me. usually its more maybe I average 60+ a week. But I am not hung up on needing 150. If I use all 150 great, but I usually dont. this week I could have stopped at 16 but made 4 extra for 20.

    Yes, 20 lineups was the subject of the original question and the ongoing debate. 60+ would make a lot more sense. I believe your 20 lineup week should be in a 20-max contest.

  • timusbr

    @BrianVT said...

    Yes, 20 lineups was the subject of the original question and the ongoing debate. 60+ would make a lot more sense. I believe your 20 lineup week should be in a 20-max contest.

    OK, from my perspective it still doesnt change my thought process. whether I am wrong or right, to me it still is 1 week of 48. I did look at the $1 $2 $3 $5 gpp but obviously bankroll is part of the decision. Wouldnt risk $100 on those 20 LU, dont like the payout on the others, prefer the minimax contest settings and that allows me to expand my SE, 3-max contests. As much as I love MME, its when my #1, 2 or 3 LU does well that rainbows come out of my ass.

  • BrianVT

    @timusbr said...

    I did look at the $1 $2 $3 $5 gpp but obviously bankroll is part of the decision

    My comparison was only about risking $20 instead of $10, and giving yourself a better chance of making money (this week).

  • tingler25

    Winner – Reed
    Fade – JT and Berger
    Sleepers – Bramlett and Straka

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    I think more than anything cashing $1.50 instead of $2 pisses me off more than anything. I’m more inclined to the $5 from $3 but don’t play $60.

    I think the assumption that said 150 lineups are “good” is overblown as well. I’m beating a dead horse and I apologize if I was the one that derailed this whole thread.

    Speaking of this tourney anybody playing Stuard down low?

  • timusbr

    I dont believe it… Cant believe my lyin eyes.

    LFN passed on Ian Poulter who was next man up in a 12 person snake draft.

  • Steverino01

    I’m only playing 3 lineups in the $5 DTG and it’s a 150 max, but I figure it’s a small price to pay for a chance at getting lucky one week and hitting 50K. I do also put those same 3 lineups in a ton of other dime, quarter, and dollar contest though.

  • BrianVT

    Tim, I will venmo you $20 to pay for you to put your same 20 lineups from the mini-max into the $1 20-max just to see how this plays out. You can keep the winnings.

    Let’s hurry up before it fills.

  • timusbr

    @BrianVT said...

    My comparison was only about risking $20 instead of $10, and giving yourself a better chance of making money (this week).

    curious if you have any thoughts on contests
    1) % of $‘s to first place
    2) % of LU’s that cash

    as you know If its up to me 10% would cash. I like that number and what do you know….most weeks thats the Happy Meal. My preference. I dont really like the almost 30% cash contests. I am not a huge fan of 50/50’s or double ups. although I do play them.

  • MrBreeze

    Finau or Ancer if you can only play one?

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    @MrBreeze said...

    Finau

    This! I’m playing both though but more of him.

  • timusbr

    @BrianVT said...

    My comparison was only about risking $20 instead of $10

    sent you a PM

  • Steverino01

    I hate how DK isn’t offering many golf milly satty contests in golf. Looks like they are more interested in the satellites for NFL best ball.

  • realphipps

    Winner – Conners
    Fade – JT, Kokrak
    Sleeper – Knox Top 10, Todd Top 15

  • ifthethunder

    @timusbr said...

    LFN passed on Ian Poulter who was next man up in a 12 person snake draft.

    Heh. Send him straight to hell!

    For me, I have a ton of Russell Knox. (Branden Grace is 7,500, have him too.)

    What say we all to Patton Kizzire?

    (I think this contest selection convo is awesome. But none of it matters if we don’t have good lineups.)
    ~

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