PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: October 17-20 (Starts Wednesday Evening)

    Where: JeJu Island, Korea (13 hours ahead of EST)

    Last Year’s Winner: Brooks Koepka at -21

    Cut Rules: This is a no cut event with only 78 players

    Course: A par 72 plating at 7196 yards

    Coverage: Golf Channel

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • superstars92

    • 215

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #36

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @wigg_ESEA said...

    Need JT to lose, then need Speith and Colin to move up….. Sorry, nice line though. I am sad I didnt pay up for JT and went fleetwood route.

    Yea I have like JT or Fleetwood across almost 80%+ of my lineups. Those were my only 10k players I chose. I have JT + Fleetwood + 4 scrubs in my cash game, so I do need Fleetwood to do well too today. I think JT has like a 60% chance of winning, Danny Lee 15%, and the field 25% since they are 3 shots back (with Cam being the highest of that). JT probably did have a 80%+ chance at one point when An tripled the 11th, but I guess Lee went on a heater when I went to sleep.

  • wigg_ESEA

    • 689

      RG Overall Ranking

    @superstars92 said...

    Yea I have like JT or Fleetwood across almost 80%+ of my lineups. Those were my only 10k players I chose. I have JT + Fleetwood + 4 scrubs in my cash game, so I do need Fleetwood to do well too today. I think JT has like a 60% chance of winning, Danny Lee 15%, and the field 25% since they are 3 shots back (with Cam being the highest of that). JT probably did have a 80%+ chance at one point when An tripled the 11th, but I guess Lee went on a heater when I went to sleep.

    Thought fleetwood would be a t10 candidate, but I guess he can pull a colin and catch up today.

  • BIF

    @superstars92 said...

    I think one of the telling price points next week is how they price Paul Casey vs. Collin Morikawa. If the precendent holds from previous events, I would not be surprised if Morikawa costs like 700 more than Paul Casey. Morikawa probably will cost like 1k+ more than Louie Oosthuzien too. And to me, if that happens, that just sounds weird right?

    I don’t totally disagree, but I can’t see Morikawa being 700 more than Casey but they’ll be close and based recent form and each having wins this past year, they probably should be – Morikawa’s tape (history) is just shorter.

  • BIF

    Still a couple spots left – $2 NFL Happy-er Meal

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/78581235

  • NoLimits0

    Good start Kevin Tway. Good start…

  • NoLimits0

    @superstars92 said...

    Yea I have like JT or Fleetwood across almost 80%+ of my lineups. Those were my only 10k players I chose. I have JT + Fleetwood + 4 scrubs in my cash game, so I do need Fleetwood to do well too today. I think JT has like a 60% chance of winning, Danny Lee 15%, and the field 25% since they are 3 shots back (with Cam being the highest of that). JT probably did have a 80%+ chance at one point when An tripled the 11th, but I guess Lee went on a heater when I went to sleep.

    Danny Lee does not have a 15% win equity. He has like a 5%.

  • deadphish

    i have a ton riding on Danny Lee…

    DANNY LEE ( +22500 ) RISK: 33.33 WIN: 7499.25

  • BIF

    @deadphish said...

    i have a ton riding on Danny Lee…

    DANNY LEE ( +22500 ) RISK: 33.33 WIN: 7499.25

    you hedge any of that on anyone else ?

  • NoLimits0

    @deadphish said...

    i have a ton riding on Danny Lee…

    DANNY LEE ( +22500 ) RISK: 33.33 WIN: 7499.25

    Well you better hope he can make like 150+ feet of putts again. There are no stats but I watched the ending yesterday. He had at least like 3-4 SG putting in like the last 9 holes.

  • deadphish

    @BIF said...

    you hedge any of that on anyone else ?

    thought about it….but did not. i have $100 at risk total. 33 on Holmes & Palmer

  • deadphish

    @BIF said...

    you hedge any of that on anyone else ?

    what approach would you take to hedge a bet like that?

  • BIF

    @NoLimits0 said...

    Danny Lee does not have a 15% win equity. He has like a 5%.

    He’s tied for the lead and they have 3 shots on the next guy and 4 on only 2 guys – only 4 people within 5 shots – he has a great chance to win if JT doesn’t.

    Data golf has Lee at 23% and JT like 57% – seems about right

  • NoLimits0

    @deadphish said...

    what approach would you take to hedge a bet like that?

    You would bet on Thomas before R4 to make sure you would profit as long as Thomas or Lee wins. You could even add in another one for Cameron Smith. You would be up if any of the 3 won with your original bet.

  • NoLimits0

    @BIF said...

    He’s tied for the lead and they have 3 shots on the next guy and 4 on only 2 guys – only 4 people within 5 shots – he has a great chance to win if JT doesn’t.

    Dat golf has Lee at 23% and JT like 57% – seems about right

    The thing is when I was watching JT missed so many short putts and Lee made his putts including like a 50 footer for eagle on the last so I wanna say JT should have a huge advantage if you believe putting has more variance.

    Maybe Lee should be higher than 5% but I need JT to win. No Lee in showdown he’s decently owned I guess people think JT and Lee both will get 1st place points or something.

  • deadphish

    @NoLimits0 said...

    You would bet on Thomas before R4 to make sure you would profit as long as Thomas or Lee wins. You could even add in another one for Cameron Smith. You would be up if any of the 3 won with your original bet.

    what amounts would you suggest?

  • NoLimits0

    @deadphish said...

    what amounts would you suggest?

    If your Lee payout is 33:7500, you pretty much have so much leeway in your bets.

    You can probably do like 500 on JT and I have no ideas his payoff but if he’s say 1-1 or something you win

    7000 if Lee wins (7500-500) and like 470 if JT wins (500-33). Even if JTs payout is like -150 you still win some positive amount both ways.

    You can even add to that by betting like 200 on Smith, An, or Clark each too so you can almost be up if anyone wins.

    But you still win the most if Lee wins (like over 6k).

    The Lee and JT only scenario should be easier to understand. The one with more is harder to explain. If you just want to consider JT or Lee, putting 500 on JT at any odds means you’ll be good if one of the two wins. If you want to expand it and be more risk averse you can add Smith and Clark and An.

  • BIF

    @deadphish said...

    what approach would you take to hedge a bet like that?

    Based on the 2 leaders having a bit of a lead I definitely Would have thrown some on JT – guessing he was probably -130 to -140 so depending on your bankroll and risk tolerance; you could have thrown a few hundred on him so you win a little if JT wins or a lot if Lee wins

    Smaller bets on the next 4 guys if you want.

    I’d only do that because it should be a 2 horse race so hopefully you could lock in some profit by betting JT

  • deadphish

    @BIF said...

    Based on the 2 leaders having a bit of a lead I definitely Would have thrown some on JT – guessing he was probably -130 to -140 so depending on your bankroll and risk tolerance; you could have thrown a few hundred on him so you win a little if JT wins or a lot if Lee wins

    considering JT -180 to win $1k

  • BIF

    @deadphish said...

    considering JT -180 to win $1k

    Steeper line than I would like but even if you did 720 to win 400 – you’d have 2 guys to cheer for and one of them cheer louder for :)

  • NoLimits0

    @BIF said...

    Steeper line than I would like but even if you did 720 to win 400 – you’d have 2 guys to cheer for and one of them cheer louder for :)

    If he bets 1k on Thomas, he should also bet like 100 on Smith, Clark, Spieth, and An. That way he pretty much makes money in every situation with the payoff biggest for Lee and JT.

  • deadphish

    i’m gonna ride or die w/Lee

  • deadphish

    is the coverage gonna be live on Golf channel at 10PM EST?

  • wigg_ESEA

    • 689

      RG Overall Ranking

    Figured my guys suck on the last day gg

  • BIF

    @deadphish said...

    is the coverage gonna be live on Golf channel at 10PM EST?

    Yes – Golf Central is at 9:30 ET and they should have a couple live shots and look-ins with live coverage starting at 10ET

  • wigg_ESEA

    • 689

      RG Overall Ranking

    All my guys over par not what I was looking for a good run

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