PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: January 25 -28

    Where: San Diego, CA

    Course: Torrey Pines GC | A par 72 playing at 7698 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Justin Rose at -21

    Last Year’s Cut: -3

    Coverage: Golf Channel | CBS | PGATourLive

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

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  • sneaksox

    @Money0227 said...

    MKF tip:

    Any bet that you would make on the “Bunch of Birdies” game (for full tourney or round 1), put it on the “Fantasy Challenge” game instead. The payouts are the same. The golfers to choose from are the same. The goals are much easier to reach (as they are set up now). For instance…an average round of 4 birdies and 14 pars per golfer gets you the 3x goal in “Fantasy Challenge”. You need 6 birdies (or better) for each golfer just to reach the minimum goal in “Bunch of Birdies”.

    Good tip here!

    The fantasy point ones seemed a little low earlier this morning, I got a 2/2 with Reed/Rahm both over 24.5 on the North Course. The current 5/5 also has Rickie, Day and Scheffler at O/U 5.5 birdies on the SC. Thinking the under is good here…two of those par 5’s are no joke and 18 isn’t a walk in the park either. Took under on Rose at 68.5 strokes also thinking he can go -4 on the NC.

  • Dunzor

    @lfn1992 said...

    Trey Mullinax, in my player pool at $6k, click reply

    I wanted to play him as if he’s healthy this course should suit his game, but he’s coming off a several month absence and only got one korn ferry tour event under his belt so I think he’s still gonna be pretty rusty so it is a gamble. I’ll probably take a wait and see on him and hope he can fulfill his medical exemption because I do like him as a player and wouldn’t mind using him a few times this season but I don’t think I have the guts to do it this week. I’d rather take a shot on a young guy with upside like Will Gordon if I’m diving into the super cheap salaries

  • ifthethunder

    @noddy said...

    Anyone considering Straka?

    Also who’s the one golfer that’s going to finish top 5 that no one expects to?

    Sepp Straka! I have him in my Happy Meal lineup.
    ~

  • noddy

    Thinking about making some of these “to finish top 40” bets:

    Cam Smith -150
    Palmer -120
    Niemann -115
    Lanto -105
    Cauley +125
    Grillo +125
    Straka +125
    Keegan +140
    Gooch +145

  • Money0227

    Need board input. I have my core 4 at the bottom, but I’m still deciding on my two guys at the top. Rose/Finau or Rory/Wolf???

  • Dunzor

    @noddy said...

    Thinking about making some of these “to finish top 40” bets:

    Cam Smith -150
    Palmer -120
    Niemann -115
    Lanto -105
    Cauley +125
    Grillo +125
    Straka +125
    Keegan +140
    Gooch +145

    I’d probably take the Palmer & Gooch lines for top 40 from those, they seem like the best value to me

  • lfn1992

    EURO Omega Masters:

    Winner: Thomas Pieters
    Fade: Westwood was awesome last week but seems poised for a letdown this week
    Sleeper: Mr. Hat, Tapio Pulkkanen

    Still working out my Farmers picks

  • Dunzor

    @Money0227 said...

    Need board input. I have my core 4 at the bottom, but I’m still deciding on my two guys at the top. Rose/Finau or Rory/Wolf???

    I think it depends on how chalky you went at the bottom. If you played mostly value chalk then I would go Rory/Wolff since I think that’ll be way lower owned than Rose/Finau, but if you’ve got some low owned cheap guys then I think Rose/Finau is the higher overall projected upside

  • Felixxberg

    Is this a tournament where young guys could thrive? My all young guys lineup looks good!

    Also, is it fair to give another chance to Justin Suh? I have unfortunately played him too many times, but I don’t want to miss the one time he gets a top 25.

  • Money0227

    @Money0227 said...

    MKF tip:

    Any bet that you would make on the “Bunch of Birdies” game (for full tourney or round 1), put it on the “Fantasy Challenge” game instead. The payouts are the same. The golfers to choose from are the same. The goals are much easier to reach (as they are set up now). For instance…an average round of 4 birdies and 14 pars per golfer gets you the 3x goal in “Fantasy Challenge”. You need 6 birdies (or better) for each golfer just to reach the minimum goal in “Bunch of Birdies”.

    BTW…they’ve already taken the round 1 “Fantasy Challenge” off the board. I’m assuming there was heavy action on the North course guys. I went heavy with Rory/Rahm/Tiger

  • noddy

    @Dunzor said...

    I’d probably take the Palmer & Gooch lines for top 40 from those, they seem like the best value to me

    Ha I must be learning. Those are my 2 favorite plays there.

  • Money0227

    @Dunzor said...

    I think it depends on how chalky you went at the bottom. If you played mostly value chalk then I would go Rory/Wolff since I think that’ll be way lower owned than Rose/Finau, but if you’ve got some low owned cheap guys then I think Rose/Finau is the higher overall projected upside

    I’m guessing I’m incredibly chalky with my value guys, so this is a good point. I’m just concerned about Wolff’s first appearance…but I’m sure his ownership will reflect that.

  • benstnick

    Winner: Hideki
    Fade: Im
    Sleeper: Grillo

  • qatman

    Winner: Woodland
    Fade: Woods
    Sleeper: NeSmith

  • sneaksox

    @Money0227 said...

    BTW…they’ve already taken the round 1 “Fantasy Challenge” off the board. I’m assuming there was heavy action on the North course guys. I went heavy with Rory/Rahm/Tiger

    It is back up only one point higher, if you think you can pull three guys that have five birdies apiece essentially you win. Going for all top birdie guys on the North course like you said.

  • titanhawks

    Got killed last week full week so only playing the Hybrid three-max and three in the EURO Short Game this week

    Did better in the Caddy Showdown so putting more there this week and played three $.25 tiks in the WE and won $.50 so will play that again

    Thirteen players each in both of my three teams groups

    EURO Winner: Fleetwood
    Fade: DeCham
    Sleeper: Pulkkanen

    PGA Winner: Mats
    Fade: Tiger
    Sleeper(s): Talor, Sepp

  • BrianVT

    Have any of you run any correlation testing on prior round-specific performances? Are golfers consistently strong in certain rounds?

  • hautalak

    Winner: Rory
    Fade: Woods, XMan, Reed, Im, and Niemann
    Sleeper: Grillo, Straka, Spaun, and List

  • hautalak

    @BrianVT said...

    Have any of you run any correlation testing on prior round-specific performances? Are golfers consistently strong in certain rounds?

    No research to this but I feel we used to have the 1st round hero list. I believe it included Brown (not sure why I remember his name) and various others. I think jam (maybe even BIF) would have a list of those guys.

  • noddy

    Where is the Titan of the industry? Would love to hear some of the golfers you like this week MT!!!!

  • titanhawks

    @BrianVT said...

    Have any of you run any correlation testing on prior round-specific performances? Are golfers consistently strong in certain rounds?

    In the stats section on PGATOUR.COM click on scoring and it gives you scoring by round as well as a lot of other related stats

    I’m always on it during my showdown picks for tie-breakers mostly

  • titanhawks

    @noddy said...

    Where is the Titan of the industry? Would love to hear some of the golfers you like this week MT!!!!

    that won’t happen until after the tourney starts lol

  • BrianVT

    Sucks when someone you faded for full tournament is starting on the NC tomorrow (like Rory). I can already feel the Thursday tilt on those. At least my Friday night beers might taste better.

  • marker0357

    winner – X
    fade – Tiger
    sleeper – Wu

  • timusbr

    @noddy said...

    Thinking about making some of these “to finish top 40” bets:

    My idea of bets…. whether its H2H or top whatever is to look for the + numbers.
    I only play the – numbers when its a lock in my mind or I believe its all about favorites.

    I always thought in the long run the underdog money helps keep the bankroll up.
    Same philosophy in horse’s …never bet to win a 4/5 shot…..thats what trifecta’s are for. So sportsbook favorites are used for parlay card expansions.

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