• niko521TampaBay

    If you’ve listened to any of the good DFS advice, either on here, or from other personalities like Silva, 4 for 4 guys, or others, you know its important to go with what you feel. The idea that someone else can sway you may seem foreign to others, but sometimes we let other people into our minds when we have a moment of unSureness.

    Two times this year, its happened to me, and I vow it never to happen again! BE YOURSELF… because the truth is, every expert out there is just as capable of being wrong, or right.

    I should have learned Week One when I wanted to play Ryan Fitzpatrick. Yes, by my name you can see Im a Bucs fan, but Ive been a Bucs fan for 40 years, Ive learned to separate the fan-voice from the non-fan voice. I had ten lineups with Ryan Fitzpatrick week one in GPPs because I saw this Bucs offense in the preseason look better than I’ve ever seen them look in a while. My logic was wrong, I thought they’d run the ball more often setting up good play-action. I felt that he had the Pass Protecting Oline, weapons at WR, and it would be a recreation of his best Buffalo and Jets days, plus his body of work last year without Winston. My Fitz lineups were mostly single entry, but some big ones. By 1pm, I had one left, and worst situation than that, I forgot I changed so many. While Im hooting and hollering about my pick, I realized soon I only had one lineup with him. Thank You draftings for those 4 dollars you deposited in account.

    Yesterday, after all week of doing the research, I saw that Minnesota was not the great defense everyone thinks they are. Very Good, yes. Great? Elite? no.
    Also, that Buffalo was suffering from a hangover from the Tyrod era. The Bills go out and eliminate the longest non playoff drought and you get rid of the QB? Players quitting at halftime. But what some call a distraction, others call a rallying point. I felt with a new QB, the team would eventually get behind their new leader, and perform. After the first game with him, the second game would be when the team would have his back and move on from last year.

    Yesterday, I had Buffalo QB Josh Allen in my GPP entries, and Matt Ryan in my Cash Games. I decided to watch the morning Wood, which is a great show on here. TonyT made a comment about Matt Ryan, laughing at the prospect of playing Ryan. Now let me be clear, this is not an ANTI TONYT message. Contrary, I respect his opinion a lot, but between him and Crane, who should I have listened to?
    the answer is ME. Crane however is acceptable as the dude has won 2 MilliMakers.
    I changed my DK and FD Cash Games off of Ryan after I went back and looked at last years Fantasy numbers, but I lost track of the thought process that got me to Matt Ryan in the first place. SO he always gets 19 points, SO? HE ALWAYS GETS 19 POINTS, thats definition of a cash game play. Mans floor is like a Hospital’s; all shiny. Plus, this game was expected to go higher than normal. All of that escaped at a time when I was trying to get any last minute information I could, as if the INFO INPUT command in my brain went all wrong and I was putting my lineups together late this week as other things got in the way during the late week. ANOTHER ERROR.

    Now, no one talked me off Allen, thats just poor tournament playing on my part: if you don’t have the testicular fortitude to go in on your hunch, well, figure out how.

    Thank You hunch for the 9.00 the Josh Allen idea brought in. Here are two of the 4 lineups, the top one at one time was no.4. 79K Sunday NFL Snap (Niko521mac)

    Be YOURSELF, play YOUR picks, and learn to laugh back at the Wood crew when they say something YOU think is silly, because they sure will!

  • Trappist1

    In the first weeks of any sports there is not enough data and trends so we all can be experts, in short most of us do not know that much. It is easy to mistake the randomness for our predictive ability or feel like giving up because it looks hard to predict.

    Hindsight is always 20/20 and if we all have hindsight there will be no need to be in DFS at all.Do your own homework mixed with the correct wisdom of the crowd approach can work to great effect in DFS.

  • coach232

    • Blogger of the Month

    Niko, this was a great post. I have burned myself many times by being unsure or not being myself. Yesterday I really wanted to play Ryan, had him as my cash game QB the entire week, I switched to Mahomes and paired him with Hill had Murray and Vikes D, fell way short of cashing. this week I am dong something different and I will not listen to any tout shows I am gonna trust my own instincts and research and see how it goes.

  • wolfjb1

    Good job. Great post. I agree 100 %.

    I am still mulling over jumping off a tall building at my stupidity in week One. I had Fitzpatrick stacked with Jackson and Evans, after my research said they could put up decent numbers and would be low owned.

    After listening to a few experts say that Evans was a trap and DeSean was washed up, I deep-sixed that lineup in the milli-maker.

    This is my fourth season playing DFS. I have a good sense of which RG experts are sharp and which aren’t worth my time. I trust some of these guys a lot, because they do the research that I, a regular schmo with a full-time job, don’t have time to do.

    Like you said, Niko, I should have believed in myself being worthwhile!

    Woulda Coulda Shoulda…whatever.

  • CleverGroom

    If the Minnesota defense isn’t elite, who is?

    There’s a lot of terrible process and luck hidden behind the reassuring, individualistic, American as apple pie platitudes in this post.

    Congratulations on your wins, though.

  • 2Slik

    Be yourself, is all that you can do…

  • IronMonkey415

    Niko Bellic with great knowledge and understanding of who he is.

  • mtdurham

    I’m lost here…. Josh Allen pulled off the largest NFL upset in 23 years, as a massive road dog, making his first start, against what is a very good to great defense….

    And yet he still only managed to finish 9th in QB scoring and finished a massive 15+ points behind both Drew Brees and Matt Ryan which gave you essentially no hope to be competitive this week in GPP

    How was this a good play before or even after the fact?

    I agree with not getting lost in endless tout discussion and making a lot of last minute tinkering errors…. but not sure it’s really all that applicable in this specific example.

    I’m not really a cash game player…. but my lineups cashed this week easily using Pat Mahomes…. i feel pretty sure he was a better play than Matt Ryan last week but I’d be willing to hear the argument from someone with a great cash game track record

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