PGA FORUM

Comments

  • BIF

    DK Salaries are up so might as well get the thread/discussion going

    Rory is top salary with Spieth, Scott, Day and Bubba not far behind; lineup construction will be interesting and a challenge given the small field, shorter cut line, likelihood of duplicate entries in huge GPP’s and the poor quality punts.

  • querb

    ref milly tickets: Ive got 8 left, website says they expire on 5/23. So that means I cant use them for us or british open?

  • JimKronlund

    Sorry if this is common knowledge. Just read it off twitter.
    No alternates for the Masters, so field simply reduces from 90 to 89 with Couples’ withdrawal – the smallest field size since 2002.

  • ninerzfan8

    @querb said...

    ref milly tickets: Ive got 8 left, website says they expire on 5/23. So that means I cant use them for us or british open?

    Pretty sure they are specific to this tourney. But if it fills before lock and you haven’t used them then they will turn them into generic $20 tickets if you email support.

  • TPSC

    @walkoff9 said...

    He got in with his win at the PRO.

    I don’t believe this is true. The PRO was an opposite field event.

  • JimKronlund

    Prior to Hermans win I felt sorry for him like most people…. until I looked at his profile. Same thing with Vaughn Taylor.

    YEAR EVENTS
    PLAYED
    ROUNDS
    1ST 2ND 3RD TOP 10 TOP 25 MADE CUT CUT WD MONEY
    FEDEXCUP
    POINTS STANDING
    2016 14 1 — — 2 5 10 4 — $1,711,724 765 18
    2015 27 — — — 2 8 18 9 — $1,212,778 840 74
    2014 21 — — — — — 11 9 1 $187,337 142 182
    2013 19 — — — 2 4 10 9 — $490,756 325 139
    2012 2 — — — — 1 1 1 — $105,000 — —
    2011 22 — — — — 2 13 9 — $196,845 160 178
    ——————————————————————————————————————————————————————

    Poor guy made almost $4 million since 2011 playing golf all the time. Sniff Sniff

  • JimKronlund

    I am only playing 2 teams in milly.
    To win even $40.00 your team needs to be ranked between 13,600th, ( 6% chance to win {-94% chance you will lose }) and 7601th (top 3.16% chance to win {-96.84% chance you will lose}).
    If you win $40.00 it would cost $20.00 to enter. So you won $20.00.

    To win $500.00 you need to be ranked 400th (0.17% chance to win {-99.83%) – 301st (0.13% chance to win {-99.87% chance you will lose})

    To win $10,000 you need to be ranked 15th (.0065% chance to win…. you get the point.

    These are overly simplistic but it does give you an idea of the likelihood you have trying to win even $10,000 in the Milly.

    To me every $20 spent on this has a lost opportunity cost that is far too high.
    I hope no one goes crazy trying to win that one. Think of all this like your investment portfolio and spread risk out.
    JMO

  • JimKronlund

    Bloody hell!!!! the $3 PGA $400K BIRDIE will have 153,000 entries. So same issues as the Milly.
    The normal Birdie of 76000 entries is bad enough. But to double that and have 153,000 other teams to beat. That will allow an enormous amount of lucky bullet wins.
    I really cannot see entering 200 LU at a total cost of $600.00 being a very smart move.
    Need to rethink, strategize and spread out into other contest formats.

  • JimKronlund

    PGA $10 15-Player (Top 5 Win) by JimKronlund is UP!

  • smallANDflaccid

    DK sent out an email saying the Salary list has changed (more players added) – so I am re-running my stuff.

  • Jamcclea

    Added:

    Sammy Schmitz – $5,000

    Derek Bard – $5,100

    Paul Chaplet – $5,200

    Rafa Cabrera-Bello – $7,400

    Jim Herman – $6,000

  • 4Champion

    Couples withdrew

  • TPSC

    @Jamcclea said...

    Added:

    Sammy Schmitz – $5,000

    Derek Bard – $5,100

    Paul Chaplet – $5,200

    Rafa Cabrera-Bello – $7,400

    Jim Herman – $6,000

    Over-under 20% for Cabrera-Bello?

    I suppose it’s under, but I feel like he’ll be one of the highest-owned players in the field after the last 2 weeks.

  • rambotex

    @TPSC said...

    Over-under 20% for Cabrera-Bello?

    I suppose it’s under, but I feel like he’ll be one of the highest-owned players in the field after the last 2 weeks.

    Has he ever played Augusta greens?

  • Cbed11

    @TPSC said...

    Over-under 20% for Cabrera-Bello?

    I suppose it’s under, but I feel like he’ll be one of the highest-owned players in the field after the last 2 weeks.

    Not sure about his ownership, but he is too expensive for me after qualifying just two weeks ago.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @rambotex said...

    Has he ever played Augusta greens?

    Not in 2013-2015, as far as I see.

  • kdsdawg

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    Not in 2013-2015, as far as I see.

    first time for him

  • smallANDflaccid

    @kdsdawg said...

    first timer, stay away from first timers. Not saying one can’t make the cut but even a top 25 might be pushing it. The greens take experience, like Phil said, you can’t really read them, you just have to putt them from memory.

    Good to know!
    My algos like him (unrelated to the last two weeks, aside from those stats go into the database), but I suspect they are over-weighing non-putting stats, b/c looking at his putting, he doesn’t seem particularly great.

    Probably still okay for some GPP stuff, but not all in.

    **sorry, didn’t mean to ghost quote, and now I don’t know how to edit that

  • kdsdawg

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    Good to know!
    My algos like him (unrelated to the last two weeks, aside from those stats go into the database), but I suspect they are over-weighing non-putting stats, b/c looking at his putting, he doesn’t seem particularly great.

    Probably still okay for some GPP stuff, but not all in.

    **sorry, didn’t mean to ghost quote, and now I don’t know how to edit that

    well, I researched my comment a little and while technically true, there have been some anomalies, Spieth and Jimmie Walker come to mind.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @kdsdawg said...

    well, I researched my comment a little and while technically true, there have been some anomalies, Spieth and Jimmie Walker come to mind.

    And both of them have better putting stats than him (at least those that I see).

  • gibbathy

    2014 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Jamcclea said...

    Added:

    Sammy Schmitz – $5,000

    Derek Bard – $5,100

    Paul Chaplet – $5,200

    Rafa Cabrera-Bello – $7,400

    Jim Herman – $6,000

    Right after I complete a 5,200 world article on the top 51 priced players. Why 51? I wanted the top 50 but the pricing made it 51. I guess its a top 52.

  • Oil_Man

    Any thoughts on overlay for the Milly Maker?

    The entry limit was set before Draftkings stopped accepting entries for New York and I was thinking that might allow for some overlay.

    Overall I don’t think there will be many people that will do more than 1 entry

  • mccoolio

    I could say maybe about 10% overlay. Also, it has been documented that about 50% of the field will enter between 1-5 times in milly makers.

  • walkoff9

    No finau? Didn’t his win at the PRO qualify him?

  • BIF

    @walkoff9 said...

    No finau? Didn’t his win at the PRO qualify him?

    No

    Wins in opposite field events (when against WGC events) they don’t count as only 1/2 the fed ex cup points and weaker fields

  • vinkster15

    where has Furyk been? I miss him :’(

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