PGA FORUM

Comments

  • BIF

    DK Salaries are up so might as well get the thread/discussion going

    Rory is top salary with Spieth, Scott, Day and Bubba not far behind; lineup construction will be interesting and a challenge given the small field, shorter cut line, likelihood of duplicate entries in huge GPP’s and the poor quality punts.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @TJRhodes said...

    Does anyone know where to find analysis on practice rounds? Are these scores even posted anywhere?

    This Twitter account will sometimes post more/less detail on them sometimes:
    https://twitter.com/PGAPractice

    But, at least in cases where it is a pro-am thing (all? not sure), they use much easier pin placement – so the scores are not necessarily representative of future performance.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @atfrost said...

    more Rickie than Bubba

    This sounds either like a country song, or a documentary I would want to see.
    If ya ain’t first yer last.

  • vinkster15

    Had Sergio in EVERYTHING and in many of my 6/6. Kinda screwed me out of satellites on aces

  • atfrost

    • Blogger of the Month

    Alot of conflicting weather reports out there. Not sure if that’s going to give us any advantage.

  • TJRhodes

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    This Twitter account will sometimes post more/less detail on them sometimes:
    https://twitter.com/PGAPractice

    But, at least in cases where it is a pro-am thing (all? not sure), they use much easier pin placement – so the scores are not necessarily representative of future performance.

    Thanks, I’ll check it out. It just seems like while the practice rounds aren’t necessarily a mirror image of tournament conditions, it still should give some indication of who’s looking good early on. Take today for example, all the headlines are Rory ace’s 16, which may give some indication he might be dialed in.

  • smallANDflaccid

    There is a thing in physics called Gauge Theory, and oversimplifying it – basically is a way to try and compare two different things, in some universal way.

    Practice round may not be the same as a “real” round, but there may be ways to convert to a “real” round – or close enough to be useful.
    Same with non-PGA courses, etc.

    In econ, you would normally do it to try and determine value between two currencies without using some known standard, to measure how well that standard works – something maybe like the way they use some McDonald’s burger’s price.

    For the practice round, while the pin placement may be easier than a “real” round (if that is even a thing), the rest should be relatively the same – so if they are doing well tee to green, that would in theory hold.
    Although there are still things that may throw that off which I don’t know enough about – are they allowed to use different clubs? Is it common to goof off more? Prop bets?

    I have spent some time trying some of the above ideas, but generally speaking haven’t found a good enough source of data (either current or historical) – that may just be me being dumb/lazy.

  • atfrost

    • Blogger of the Month

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    There is a thing in physics called Gauge Theory, and oversimplifying it – basically is a way to try and compare two different things, in some universal way.

    Practice round may not be the same as a “real” round, but there may be ways to convert to a “real” round – or close enough to be useful.
    Same with non-PGA courses, etc.

    In econ, you would normally do it to try and determine value between two currencies without using some known standard, to measure how well that standard works – something maybe like the way they use some McDonald’s burger’s price.

    For the practice round, while the pin placement may be easier than a “real” round (if that is even a thing), the rest should be relatively the same – so if they are doing well tee to green, that would in theory hold.
    Although there are still things that may throw that off which I don’t know enough about – are they allowed to use different clubs? Is it common to goof off more? Prop bets?

    I have spent some time trying some of the above ideas, but generally speaking haven’t found a good enough source of data (either current or historical) – that may just be me being dumb/lazy.

    I am under the impression that the practice rounds are exactly that – practice. They put themselves in situations that are difficult so that if it happens during the tournament, they will know how to handle it. It does not do them much good to go out there and shoot a 62 every practice round with 18 FIRs and 18 GIRs, because the first time they do not hit a FIR or a GIR, they’ll be less knowledgeable on what their next step should be. Duration of practice rounds would be the most relevant stat form the week, but still easily disregarded.

  • BIF

    @TJRhodes said...

    Does anyone know where to find analysis on practice rounds? Are these scores even posted anywhere?

    Everyone practices differently – Phil always has a money game (2 on 2 team game) on Tuesdays and it is the closest to real golf anyone is playing but of course it is using hole locations in areas that won’t be used Thur-Sun – others do not even putt out, they hit an approach to the green then when on the green they just go grab that ball and a couple others to practice putting and chipping to spots where the pins will be Thur-Sun (as they barely change from year to year). To some guys Tues is a fun day where they play a 18 hole match and to others it is a day to play nine holes and hit balls on the range. Day said in his press conference that he arrived on Friday, played 9 holes each day (Sat, Sun, Mon and Tues) then on Wed he’ll hit some balls and play the par 3 contest.

    I certainly wouldn’t read too much into Rory’s hole in one on a Monday or what you hear; I was at the Masters in (2006 &) 2014 and saw Weir make an ace on 16 – he missed the cut. Also watched Delaet, Els and Grace play 15-18 together on Wed that year and they were a combined 8 under par for those 12 holes (I gave them the 2 foot birdie putts – ha ha) and ALL 3 missed the cut. I saw Garcia and Bowditch practice numerous chips/pitches on 13 from a fair bit left and right of the green as if they were going for the green in two and misfired (both made the cut – yes Bowditch made the cut); they were the only ones in the near hour I spent on that hole that did that – others were more optimistic I guess and practiced wedges from 80-100yds (if they laid up) and putts/chip from the back left corner. The mood is pretty light for 80-90% of the guys as they try to skip balls across the water on #16 (VJ actually canned one like this one year – Google it, it’s pretty crazy to see). You have to realize that about a third of the field turns over every year and approx 30-35 players there each year may not be invited back next year as they only got there based on winning an event, having a good run in the Fed Ex playoffs to make the Tour Championship or their Top 50 in the world ranking – all may not happen again this next year so the Masters is a real treat for many of the players and is rich in tradition so a lot of them really just take it all in and try to be relaxed for the tournament.

  • BIF

    The media is so funny, I have the Golf Channel on in the background so I can hear it (but not watching) and in the past 90 minutes I’ve heard them praise and basically crown Day, Scott and now Rory the champion – it won’t be long before Rickie, Bubba, Phil and DJ get their praise and green jackets !

  • TPSC

    I have no idea what to do with Jason Day. Usually when I fade guys, I like some missed cut equity out of it. I don’t see any scenario where Day misses the cut. It’s just hard to play a guy in the milly maker when he’s going to be close to 30-percent owned.

  • Whacko

    @TPSC said...

    I have no idea what to do with Jason Day. Usually when I fade guys, I like some missed cut equity out of it. I don’t see any scenario where Day misses the cut. It’s just hard to play a guy in the milly maker when he’s going to be close to 30-percent owned.

    Day is going to be very chalk, but since the media really likes to pump up the Top Tier guys, I fully expect heavy ownership.

    The pricing puts somewhat of a snafu on those (non-grinder types) that just will blindly take the top guys and forget the risk of the others not making the cut.
    If you look at Day’s price of 11.6K , those Lineups are going to need to be built with 2 if not 3 guys that according to price might not even sniff making the cut.
    However it’s a risk that takes down the Milly…. If all Six guys are still around come Sunday you might be in a position to take it down.

    I’m in the boat of having the targets I want, but 2 of the guys I am rounding out the LU are looking just Bleh. Still tweaking.

  • JimKronlund

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    There is a thing in physics called Gauge Theory, and oversimplifying it – basically is a way to try and compare two different things, in some universal way.

    Practice round may not be the same as a “real” round, but there may be ways to convert to a “real” round – or close enough to be useful.
    Same with non-PGA courses, etc.

    In econ, you would normally do it to try and determine value between two currencies without using some known standard, to measure how well that standard works – something maybe like the way they use some McDonald’s burger’s price.

    For the practice round, while the pin placement may be easier than a “real” round (if that is even a thing), the rest should be relatively the same – so if they are doing well tee to green, that would in theory hold.
    Although there are still things that may throw that off which I don’t know enough about – are they allowed to use different clubs? Is it common to goof off more? Prop bets?

    I have spent some time trying some of the above ideas, but generally speaking haven’t found a good enough source of data (either current or historical) – that may just be me being dumb/lazy.

    I have a very different opinion on this based on a lifetime being an athlete. I do not want this to sound like boosting because it really isn’t. I never was paid and my peak years was back in 90’s & 2000’s. From a very early age all I did was sports. In my 20’s & 30’s I went to 5 Canadian National Championships in Baseball (Slo-pitch) and played on Team BC in Volleyball. We played against UCLA, BYU, etc. I also played hockey and made the North American Hockey Championship in Las Vegas 1 year.
    My only point is that I have experienced a long history of competing, and when you are at a point that everything you practiced for, played for. Comes down to a final game or tournament. The difference in pressure is hard to describe.

    Getting back to the “practice round” comparisons. From everything I have experienced, having the feeling of a “successful” (for lack of a better word) practice does not forecast very well on how you will ultimately perform once the real competition starts and there is an ump, ref, judge, score, fans. There is no understanding why some days you just don’t have it, when everything leading up has been positive. You hear people say that they did not try hard enough. Well that’s horseshit. You are hardwired to always give it everything you have. As an athlete, somedays you just can’t find that 4th gear and there is not a single reason that explains this. Trust me it’s fucking frustrating and you’re at a complete loss as to why. You ask yourself did I practice too much? Too little? Am I fighting the beginning of a sickness? Did I sleep enough, eat enough… All these and more go through your mind why you are not playing that day like you can and usually do. Then the very next day you are able to perform and succeed at levels higher than you ever have. Even after that you try and understand all the separate components why were you able to do that today and not yesterday? Then the next day it is all too possible to revert backwards more than what is acceptable to you. The world’s greatest athletes swing back and forth in the exact same way, but with a much lower variance. Without a single doubt the same pattern exists.

    The amount of recent high level competition exposure does show more reliable trends, (and I mean only the very most recent playing trends, not 6 months prior). That statement is from a team aspect and not golf so much. In a team aspect what you did in the first quarter season does not mean much when you are in the 4th quarter of the season. In golf, being a singular athlete that competes against other singular athletes. It does not hold as true. But there is still a degree of truth behind it.
    When it comes down to the most critical point that you need to perform well. It is always the psychological component that must come through. No matter how skilled and how much practice or game time. Because at that point. Everyone that you are competing against has put in the same effort and has practiced the same amount and has played in the same amount of highest level competition.
    Practices do not allow for any of these psychological pressures. Repetition helps but the psychological pressure when you are at a peak moment. It is an animal all unto its own, and is an entirely different subject altogether.

    I wrote this to bring a unique expierence and be helpful in some small way. Not to be attacked by forum trolls. Others will have opinions different than mine and that’s fine by me. It does not make either of us right or wrong. I am speaking about personal expierence from playing multi sports at a high enough level to have significance. I have golfed my whole life as well, but never was able to get even close to being competitive. I am fine with that as I LOVE GOLF. My career is about golf.

  • carolinacrusher

    @TPSC said...

    I have no idea what to do with Jason Day. Usually when I fade guys, I like some missed cut equity out of it. I don’t see any scenario where Day misses the cut. It’s just hard to play a guy in the milly maker when he’s going to be close to 30-percent owned.

    I get ownership concerns, but how many big GPPs are won without the winner being on the winning ticket. I haven’t seen any yet this year.

  • Feibla22

    Instead of looking at one guys ownership I think it’s better to look at 2-3 guys being paired together in people’s lineups like that article the guy puts out each week on RG after lock. I think the most popular combo will be Day/Willett/Smylie. So if you think Day will win I think it’s better to fade the last two guys (or other cheaper plays) than to fade him.

  • MCDEEZY

    Anyone know where to find the strokes gained in wind statistic that comes up in the “searching for a specialist” article once in a while. Snedeker and lowry come to mind as possibly gaining an advantage but who else benefits from heavy wind?

  • smallANDflaccid

    @Feibla22 said...

    that article the guy puts out each week

    Hokie2009/scarf_face
    (the scarf face part might have a number)

  • smallANDflaccid

    @MCDEEZY said...

    Anyone know where to find the strokes gained in wind statistic that comes up in the “searching for a specialist” article once in a while. Snedeker and lowry come to mind as possibly gaining an advantage but who else benefits from heavy wind?

    I think Walker usually shows up in “good in wind” stats IIRC.

    But I also spent like a day or two once making a spreadsheet of “who is good in wind” and then compared it to “the top golfers I want (ignoring anything about wind)” and it was the same list.
    So to each their own, YMMV.

  • smallANDflaccid

    @MCDEEZY said...

    Anyone know where to find the strokes gained in wind statistic that comes up in the “searching for a specialist” article once in a while.

    Also I think that guy is futureoffantasy and has his own website (I think they are the same person):
    http://futureoffantasy.com/strokes-gained-performance-in-the-wind

  • MCDEEZY

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    Also I think that guy is futureoffantasy and has his own website (I think they are the same person):
    http://futureoffantasy.com/strokes-gained-performance-in-the-wind

    Thanks, much appreciated.
    Interesting that most of the top golfers still perform well but no sign of bubba

  • TPSC

    @MCDEEZY said...

    Thanks, much appreciated.
    Interesting that most of the top golfers still perform well but no sign of bubba

    Guys who strike the ball purely and hit it straight tend to be the best golfers. Guys who strike the ball purely and hit it straight tend to play best in the wind, since the wind just exaggerates poor play.

    I tend to think wind creates a bigger performance gap between good and bad players. With notable exceptions (like Bubba, who hits the ball very high and not particularly straight).

  • mccoolio

    @vinkster15 said...

    Had Sergio in EVERYTHING and in many of my 6/6. Kinda screwed me out of satellites on aces

    Are you from the future?

  • mccoolio

    @smallANDflaccid said...

    There is a thing in physics called Gauge Theory, and oversimplifying it – basically is a way to try and compare two different things, in some universal way.

    Practice round may not be the same as a “real” round, but there may be ways to convert to a “real” round – or close enough to be useful.
    Same with non-PGA courses, etc.

    In econ, you would normally do it to try and determine value between two currencies without using some known standard, to measure how well that standard works – something maybe like the way they use some McDonald’s burger’s price.

    For the practice round, while the pin placement may be easier than a “real” round (if that is even a thing), the rest should be relatively the same – so if they are doing well tee to green, that would in theory hold.
    Although there are still things that may throw that off which I don’t know enough about – are they allowed to use different clubs? Is it common to goof off more? Prop bets?

    I have spent some time trying some of the above ideas, but generally speaking haven’t found a good enough source of data (either current or historical) – that may just be me being dumb/lazy.

    All I know is James Hahn destroyed in practice last week and f’d me out of a lot of 6/6s

  • smallANDflaccid

    @mccoolio said...

    All I know is James Hahn destroyed in practice last week and f’d me out of a lot of 6/6s

    If we are boiling things down to “all I know”, then all I know is that I like bourbon. And sleeping. Not at the same time.

  • BIF

    @Feibla22 said...

    Instead of looking at one guys ownership I think it’s better to look at 2-3 guys being paired together in people’s lineups like that article the guy puts out each week on RG after lock. I think the most popular combo will be Day/Willett/Smylie. So if you think Day will win I think it’s better to fade the last two guys (or other cheaper plays) than to fade him.

    How’d you come up with Day/Willett/Smylie as the most popular combo ?

    With the number of newbies and non-golf DFS’ers playing this week, I’d be shocked if Smylie as a rookie has a high ownership – he’ll get an average to slightly above ownership because of his price and the need for everyone to grab at least 1-3 punts. Willett will be popular with those who follow golf and are DFS’ers but again I’m not sure the average Joe knows much about this Euro. Also if I’m looking at stacking 3 guys, I’d be looking at guys with more Masters experience than Willett (1 prior Masters) and Smylie (rookie).

  • BIF

    Lots of talk about the wind and people expecting that scores are going to rise.

    I have heard 2 caddies say that a mostly steady 10-15mph wind at Augusta is almost easier to play in than a mostly calm day. Because of all the elevation change at Augusta, the wind really swirls in the lower areas (Amen Corner) which is very difficult to gauge as it swirls the most when the wind is mild or gusty. When the wind is a pretty steady 10-15mph as forecasted, the direction is easily known and that is the key variable for a golfer – wind direction.

    Tour players can easily adjust to a 1 or 2 club wind if/when they know it is there – what they can’t adjust for is an 8 or 9 iron on #12 that hits a gust swirling thru Amen Corner and they come up 30ft short and spin back off the bank into the water.

    EDIT – For those that don’t know how hilly Augusta is, the elevation change alone from the 10th tee box down to the 12th green is equivalent to the height of the Statue of Liberty. This was the one thing that I was not prepared for when I was there; pre-HD television did not really show the elevation change very well – HD TV and better media coverage has made it more well known but still it is more than they describe.

    When I got back from my 1st Masters, my standard line to describe the elevation change was:
    “Augusta National has more ups and downs than a new bride’s panties”

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Use our links to sign up and deposit on sites listed in this thread to get these bonuses:

  • FanDuel

    Get 1-month of RotoGrinders Premium for FREE (a ~$40value) by signing up through one of our links!

    Learn More
  • DraftKings

    Sign up for DraftKings using a RotoGrinders link & receive our DraftKings Premium content FREE for 1 month. That’s a ~$40 value! No DraftKings promo code necessary!

    Learn More
  • FantasyDraft

    FantasyDraft strives to put players first, with a mission to “provide a fun and fair experience for all.” To this end, the site has a well-built, easy-to-use interface and a the first of its kind in offering “Rake-Free” fantasy contests.

    Learn More

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler