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  • JonBales

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    I don’t think there’s any doubt that DFS is going to become more efficient, as it has already, at least in terms of the crowd finding underpriced players. There’s so much good information available now that the number of really poor lineups has dropped considerably year to year.

    My question is how will this affect game selection and the games/sports that are most beatable? The top NBA players can still make a killing and did so in the past because the game is so value-based and consistent, but one thing I’ve always thought is that it’s not how predictable a sport is, it’s how much better you can predict it than others – how much of an edge you can find.

    The shift to more and more players accurately identifying value has altered GPPs – not necessarily making them less beatable, but just different. The GPP landscape is always shifting, whereas cash games are (mostly) about finding value. For that reason, it’s my belief that the sports that set up best for GPP players, such as baseball, are going to represent the largest money-making opportunity moving forward. In my view, those sports are the ones with the most volatility.

    For those who think I’m wrong, tell me why.

  • Troll4MVP

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    I agree that edge ultimately comes down to your relative predictive skill, but I also think your ability to predict an outcome better than others is partially dependent on the overall predictability of the outcome to begin with. If an outcome is not at all predictable, there is no relative predictive edge.

    Interesting topic for sure.

  • lk2000

    I think one area where top NBA players still have a big edge over the field is their ability to react to late injury news correctly. For example, if your top value pg gets injured do you insert that pg’s backup who gets a minutes boost, go to the number two pg on your initial list, insert the pg from the opposing team who now has a better match up or insert a player from a different position on the initial pgs team who will now get additional usage on offense? I think that the top pros make these decisions correctly more often than the field and that it’s very difficult for rec players to make these decisions correctly at the same rate without spending the time the pros spend. Just my 2 cents though.

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

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    @Troll4MVP said...

    I also think your ability to predict an outcome better than others is partially dependent on the overall predictability of the outcome to begin with. If an outcome is not at all predictable, there is no relative predictive edge.

    Hmm. This could be true. But what about in tournaments? Ownership more or less dictates your “odds,” so if you’re getting the right odds on something, even if totally random and unpredictable, I think that’s an edge.

    Basically, if performance were theoretically totally unpredictable, you’d just want to use the lowest-owned players.

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

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    @lk2000 said...

    I think one area where top NBA players still have a big edge over the field is their ability to react to late injury news correctly.

    Yes, this is 100% true and probably the largest edge in NBA. Good point.

  • colinwdrew

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    If you believe the markets are becoming more efficient based on news and crowd sourcing value, the least efficient markets are Nascar, MMA, PGA, NHL, with not nearly as much information out there. At least on a % basis the edge should be higher albeit less liquid.

    The other piece to consider is where and when marketing dollars are spent, as user acquisition is a large part of the equation.

  • YoungFischer

    It should be pointed out that there is a cap on just how good of a roster you can create. People should really think of lineup building not as putting together their best lineup, but trying to discover what is the best lineup for a given day. A subtle but significant difference.

  • Bishman

    The market is becoming too efficient especially for NBA. The ownership for chalk plays are higher than they were last season.

  • Cityworkout

    Can the top NBA cash players still make a killing now? Man the competition has increased. Everyday lately a lot of the good plays are highly owned (Ryan Anderson, DDR, Oladipo, Aaron Gordon, etc). I still think NBA cash games are beatable but the ROI you can get is probably going to be lower than it was earlier on.

  • Priptonite

    • Blogger of the Month

    Would guess MLB since 50% of the field believes in BvP and hot streaks

  • johnnyj580

    NHL is still incredibly tough based on 1) Scoring outputs being much lower this year 2) High degree of variance due to limited number of dfs scoring opportunities.

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    If you were never overly reliant on public information/picks, the difference has not been that great. You still have an edge, maybe not as great, but still an edge.
    If your lineup structure is largely dependent on the work of others, then your now your part of an even bigger jumbled group in the middle.

    Although I would say that FanDuel (especially) isn’t helping matters with their pricing. Not even factoring in injury news, each night there are generally 2-3 guys where it seems like your throwing your money away if you don’t start your roster with them, just because their price isn’t representative of their current roll on the team. It’s currently very easy to build a lineup (while making very few concessions) on that site

    I also think people are severely underestimating the roll subscription services, optomizers and purchased lineups are going to play on MLB.
    It may even be worse in that sport because people will want to gamble and not put the work in.
    You’re going to spend all day busting your butt breaking down numbers only to see 20% of the field paid to have that same information handed to them.
    I hope I’m wrong, but I just don’t see that being the case.

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

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    It’s worth noting that the biggest edges probably come in the newer sports (eSports, for example), but there’s just not that much money in most of them. Each sport is a race for players to learn to beat that particular game, so there tend to be bigger inefficiencies early on.

  • JonBales

    RotoAcademy Lead Instructor

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    @Jon Bales said...

    It’s worth noting that the biggest edges probably come in the newer sports (eSports, for example), but there’s just not that much money in most of them. Each sport is a race for players to learn to beat that particular game, so there tend to be bigger inefficiencies early on.

    Related to this idea is that the biggest edges come when things get shaken up, i.e. starters, scoring, etc. When DraftKings introduced an additional WR and got rid of the K, it altered lineup construction in such a way that there was an initial edge to be found.

    This is also why I love tournaments; since the “right” strategy is dictated by others’ beliefs (which are always evolving), GPPs are constantly getting “shaken up.”

  • Cityworkout

    I tried cash games in the Bisping vs Silva UFC FN and did well. I do have a solid background in UFC because I follow it and it would take a while for someone new to get up to speed.

    I also tried a little Nascar and did well but that is just one event. I see why someone would have a considerable edge in sports like UFC, Nascar, ESports and PGA.

    The main issue with getting up to speed in a new sport is the uncertainty. It can be hard to feel confident in playing certain guys over other guys because you don’t really conceptualize it. Even in CBB there is that sense of uncertainty because information is not as available and less tv time.

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