I don’t think there’s any doubt that DFS is going to become more efficient, as it has already, at least in terms of the crowd finding underpriced players. There’s so much good information available now that the number of really poor lineups has dropped considerably year to year.
My question is how will this affect game selection and the games/sports that are most beatable? The top NBA players can still make a killing and did so in the past because the game is so value-based and consistent, but one thing I’ve always thought is that it’s not how predictable a sport is, it’s how much better you can predict it than others – how much of an edge you can find.
The shift to more and more players accurately identifying value has altered GPPs – not necessarily making them less beatable, but just different. The GPP landscape is always shifting, whereas cash games are (mostly) about finding value. For that reason, it’s my belief that the sports that set up best for GPP players, such as baseball, are going to represent the largest money-making opportunity moving forward. In my view, those sports are the ones with the most volatility.
For those who think I’m wrong, tell me why.