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  • loured

    • 356

      RG Overall Ranking

    It appears that the score of 340 or 350 to win a gpp have went out the window and you need over 400 to win. Hope this is not the new norm. Anyone notice the sudden change. I mean player production does not seem any more the usual ..

  • cleanslate

    Tonight may be the most discouraging DFS day I’ve ever played in 3+ years. I see you water, and you are nothing but shark infested at this point. I had a team that hit 347.10 and barely minimum cashed. 5 more teams were at 320+ and were nowhere near the money line.

    Yes, tons of “chalk” players went off, but this is the highest cash line I have ever seen, and yet this is somehow becoming routine. Am I just wasting my time at this point even playing? I think this is a fair question that a lot of people need to start asking themselves.

    The overall skill level has gotten so high that for the majority of players the rake is the only thing winning anymore. I fear my days of having any realistic expectation of having an “edge” are far behind me.

  • dangerb407

    @cleanslate said...

    Tonight may be the most discouraging DFS day I’ve ever played in 3+ years. I see you water, and you are nothing but shark infested at this point. I had a team that hit 347.10 and barely minimum cashed. 5 more teams were at 320+ and were nowhere near the money line.

    Yes, tons of “chalk” players went off, but this is the highest cash line I have ever seen, and yet this is somehow becoming routine. Am I just wasting my time at this point even playing? I think this is a fair question that a lot of people need to start asking themselves.

    The overall skill level has gotten so high that for the majority of players the rake is the only thing winning anymore. I fear my days of having any realistic expectation of having an “edge” are far behind me.

    It hasn’t been sharktank lately; it has been fading the high priced players and going “fair and balanced”. My highest priced player was ABC at 8.7k and lowest priced was David Lee at 4.5k; next lowest was Covington at 5.4k and I scored 387.4. Similar results over the past 2 nights by fading the high priced players; I attribute that to soft FD pricing

  • SnowShark

    @dangerb407 To say it hasn’t been a “shark tank lately” might be true in your eyes but in reality you might just be falling on the right side of variance. With such loose pricing on Fanduel and extremely chalky slates you run into many scenarios where player A vs player B might just be a coin flip. There still is an edge in picking those coin flips or altering lineup construction BUT if someone doesn’t think the player skill isn’t better this time of the year then your CRAZY!

    @cleanslate i think your best bet to get better is start reading what type of slates you want to play. I personally have my best cash game nights when its a big slates and the ownership is more spread out. The opposite is true for really chalky nights I like to fade a big high priced stud and play more tournaments or you might just look at a slate and think idk where to find the edge and just play less or not at all. Might not work for everyone but might be worth experimenting with.

  • walkoff9

    • 594

      RG Overall Ranking

    @dangerb407 said...

    It hasn’t been sharktank lately; it has been fading the high priced players and going “fair and balanced”. My highest priced player was ABC at 8.7k and lowest priced was David Lee at 4.5k; next lowest was Covington at 5.4k and I scored 387.4. Similar results over the past 2 nights by fading the high priced players; I attribute that to soft FD pricing

    This is usually my strategy but for some reason have been paying for studs lately.

    Durant 60 burger ended up being a bad pick for me today. crazy

  • mjordantmac

    • 2016 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    The majority of players use the ‘What have you done for me lately’ approach and this is what happens when those players all go HAM at the same time. Nothing to worry about, just an outlier on the calendar.

  • Shipmymoney

    • 58

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #11

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @mjordantmac said...

    The majority of players use the ‘What have you done for me lately’ approach and this is what happens when those players all go HAM at the same time. Nothing to worry about, just an outlier on the calendar.

    Just patiently waiting for all the money I’ll win when those guys finally have a bad game

  • Avgplayer

    Have a little chalk ,hope for no injuries, and trust in your research.

  • cleanslate

    I appreciate all of the responses. Here’s the thing:

    (1) I have been profitable every year that I have played DFS since I started in September of 2012. Each year I have played I have made more money than I made the year before. This includes the year 2015. This is not to brag, I’m small time. This is simply to give my opinions on this matter some perspective for those that don’t know anything about me. And when I walk away from DFS, be it today, a week from now, or 10 years from now, I will walk away having been profitable.

    (2) Each year I have played DFS the skill level has risen. I can say that objectively. Yes, the NBA gets harder at this point in the season every year. Have I ever seen ownership levels of the top plays every single night this high? No, I have not. And it’s not just a pricing issue. It goes deeper than that. I think a lot of players that have been around for a long time would probably agree with at least some of this.

    This is a disturbing trend in my opinion, and one that the sites need to address. If I am a previously profitable player for 3 years running and I am considering walking away from DFS permanently, what about all of the players that never were profitable, or more importantly, never even really had a chance to learn long enough to become profitable?

    A lot of the new players that the sites spent so much money in trying to acquire through their mass advertising campaigns have already left. This is due to (1) the rake being too high to be sustainable for average players let alone below average players, and (2) the sites allowing the sharks to eat up all of the fish far too fast for them to get better and stick around while they are learning.

    With all of the States that are banning DFS, all of the new players losing interest due to the sharks chasing them away too quickly, and the sites making no concerted effort anymore to do advertising or run beginner friendly contests that will bring more new players in, who exactly will be playing? Average players at worst, and tons of sharks on the high end.

    This has been predicted as something that would happen by many people within the community for a very long time. I think we are finally seeing it come to fruition. If you are a new player, be warned- the odds are extremely stacked against you at this point, particularly with a sport like the NBA.

  • cedric19

    @cleanslate said...

    I appreciate all of the responses. Here’s the thing:

    (1) I have been profitable every year that I have played DFS since I started in September of 2012. Each year I have played I have made more money than I made the year before. This includes the year 2015. This is not to brag, I’m small time. This is simply to give my opinions on this matter some perspective for those that don’t know anything about me. And when I walk away from DFS, be it today, a week from now, or 10 years from now, I will walk away having been profitable.

    (2) Each year I have played DFS the skill level has risen. I can say that objectively. Yes, the NBA gets harder at this point in the season every year. Have I ever seen ownership levels of the top plays every single night this high? No, I have not. And it’s not just a pricing issue. It goes deeper than that. I think a lot of players that have been around for a long time would probably agree with at least some of this.

    This is a disturbing trend in my opinion, and one that the sites need to address. If I am a previously profitable player for 3 years running and I am considering walking away from DFS permanently, what about all of the players that never were profitable, or more importantly, never even really had a chance to learn long enough to become profitable?

    A lot of the new players that the sites spent so much money in trying to acquire through their mass advertising campaigns have already left. This is due to (1) the rake being too high to be sustainable for average players let alone below average players, and (2) the sites allowing the sharks to eat up all of the fish far too fast for them to get better and stick around while they are learning.

    With all of the States that are banning DFS, all of the new players losing interest due to the sharks chasing them away too quickly, and the sites making no concerted effort anymore to do advertising or run beginner friendly contests that will bring more new players in, who exactly will be playing? Average players at worst, and tons of sharks on the high end.

    This has been predicted as something that would happen by many people within the community for a very long time. I think we are finally seeing it come to fruition. If you are a new player, be warned- the odds are extremely stacked against you at this point, particularly with a sport like the NBA.

    I didn’t read all of it but I think I get the jist and I agree with you. I was profitable in NBA the last 2 years but nothing this year in 50/50s and double ups. I think with the rake there is just no edge in those anymore. Same with hockey. Hopefully NFL edge doesn’t disappear too, that would be the end of DFS

  • walkoff9

    • 594

      RG Overall Ranking

    Seems like the punt plays prices get jacked up quickly, but the mid tier guys crushing value dont move.

    Kawhi is 8.2k tomorrow i believe. He has scored 40+ every game for a month.

    ABC is essentially the same, has shown a slightly lower floor but a ceiling as high as anyone in the league.

  • nawmsayin

    • 293

      RG Overall Ranking

    I think something many people forget or don’t understand initially is that perhaps the most important thing can be game selection. Reevaluate what you’re playing and why you’re playing it and how to perhaps improve your process. Obviously, this is also something you need to do with your lineups. Every day is a different puzzle and the previous day, week, year’s profit isn’t a predictor of that day’s success. It’s something you have to remember to work on every single day.

  • cleanslate

    @nawmsayin said...

    I think something many people forget or don’t understand initially is that perhaps the most important thing can be game selection. Reevaluate what you’re playing and why you’re playing it and how to perhaps improve your process. Obviously, this is also something you need to do with your lineups. Every day is a different puzzle and the previous day, week, year’s profit isn’t a predictor of that day’s success. It’s something you have to remember to work on every single day.

    I agree with that to an extent, but I also think it’s okay and important to acknowledge that this is not the same playing field as it was in years past.

  • njsum

    IMO The sites eventually need to run outside advertisements to generate additional income in order to reduce the rake. Yet this can only happen if and when DFS’ legal issues are resolved, as many advertisers dont want to be associated with a product with questionable legality or that can be viewed as gambling. It may be a bit annoying for the user, yet certainly a better option than the alternative.

  • horby

    This time of year we’re seeing a lot of mid range plays going near 40 minutes a game. I noticed the same thing last year. Lots of teams are out of it by the point so they are playing up their young uns who are cheap. Lots of other teams making playoff or seeding pushes and giving their studs a little more run.

    This is certainly not the whole story here but I think it’s contributing.

  • shadygr8

    i see you are wining the 4$ gpp right now man amazing , i hope you hold

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    Guys that used to be plug-and-pray are scoring 50 points. (Like Green tonight)
    When you get 40-50 pts for under $4k you can pay up for stars and there are a handful producing 50-70 point games at a consistent level. (Cousins and Durant, etc)
    Not to mention mis-priced chalk plays consistently going x6 value or more. (Len,LaVine.Russell,etc)
    You get what we have now…

    The crazy thing is I’ll agonize over 50/50 decisions, but the past couple weeks I’ll watch games play out and realize every player I was considering exceeded value. (For instance if you were debating Gasol or Cousins tonight)

  • infy72

    There usually comes a time every year when cashing becomes much more difficult. Those who have it all figured out keep rolling, and the easier to beat folks start dropping off. Feels like we’re getting to that point now.

    Thankfully baseball is only weeks away.

  • jimfred82

    • Blogger of the Month

    @infy72 said...

    Thankfully baseball is only weeks away.

    ….which in turn actually brings in some easier to beat people for a week or two. :)

  • jtwfantasy

    @loured said...

    I mean player production does not seem any more the usual ..

    So you are telling me highly owned value plays going for 10x-12x doesn’t seem unusual at all? Right…

  • dakimbell

    @loured said...

    It appears that the score of 340 or 350 to win a gpp have went out the window and you need over 400 to win. Hope this is not the new norm. Anyone notice the sudden change. I mean player production does not seem any more the usual ..

    Yea having super cheap plug and play players that can score 45-50 FDP’s at several positions makes it damn near impossible to not score 300… 330 was easy pickens, and not cash worthy

  • tvsfrink

    Lol, another one of these threads. We should have a separate NBA subforum for this.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @tvsfrink said...

    Lol, another one of these threads. We should have a separate NBA subforum for this.

    We are having an issue with combining them, it’s killing me that I cannot. :)

  • walkoff9

    • 594

      RG Overall Ranking

    Part of it is that your not seeing many new players jumping in right now so everyone playing is relatively sharp. The other part is just the stage of the season we are at, teams are banged up and running short rotations or giving guys nights off to get a look at young players. While at the same time studs are being pushed to play bigger minutes to make playoff pushes.

  • sanfranciscody

    0 point in playing cash games right now

  • champagneravens

    yeah at this rate I will be abandoning cash games completely. I usually play about 2/3 of my lineups entered are for cash. And it seems like my 1/3 of my gpp lineups are doing better. It seems like we would have to be thinking gpp lineups but still being carefull or “safe” if you want to win in cash.

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