PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: August 23-26

    Where: Old Westbury, NY

    Course: Ridgewood Country Club | A Par 71 playing at 7385 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Dustin Johnson at -13

    Last Year’s Cut: +2

    Coverage: PGATourLive| Golf Channel | CBS

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • mtdurham

    @timusbr said...

    you know a week later, still getting digs on my Flores pick.
    Lets set the record straight only used 44 LU’s in the minmax as opposed to 150 or 50. I admidt Flores was a bit of Luck but where I was told the argument was game theory LU construction and not player selection, I defended the reasoning and feel I am not wrong.

    Too many posts lately have been more about people are wrong and given connotation’s of stupid. What happened to IMO thats not smart. I will point to Coop, Jam and Durham. All good DFS players, who all of a sudden think their shit dont stink. You guys were all over some picks prior to this week starts. Some are doing OK. When your wrong its due to variance and bad luck and when your right, I guess your the smartest person in the room.

    Lets look at how bad my picks, LU generation and game theory ended last week.
    Tim minimax cost $22, Payout $58, Profit $36, ROI 1.64
    Cooper minimax cost $75, payout $81.22, profit $6.22, ROI .08
    Jam minimax cost $25, payout $23.29, Loss $1.71, ROI -.07
    durham minimax cost $75, payout $47, loss $28, ROI -.37

    I dont put myself in the category of a great DFS player. I wont even say I am a good player. I am consistant with finding enough wins to keep me within a few hundred of even for my DFS life. I think thats good enough to voice my opinions when I have them. Now lets hear the lies from the big players who say they are profitable.

    I dont know how you could read my posts and have your main takeaway be that im attacking you… i went well out of my to state my case… Im trying to be helpful to the forum and in turn sometimes articulating my thoughts and writing them down helps cement them in my head for future use/reference. I used to stand behind “Those who can’t do teach” but there’s also something to be said for improving your own conceptualizations by teaching others. And i thoroughly expect someone to expand on my thoughts or perhaps redirect them with then they are misguided and learn from them.

    I dont know where i have ever pointed to “variance” or “bad luck” as being the reason i lost… sure that can explain it sometimes as variance and luck are a part of DFS and drive a huge amount of short term (and perhaps even long term) results…

    This week i have pointed to three things that I did that I believe were poor decisions. I played Xander when he didnt fit my criteria. I played waaaay too much Rahm. And I played too many lineups. I started my lineup buidling early thursday morning at about 2 AM and i didnt have enough feel for the player pool to build anywhere near that amount of lineups. This resulted in some pretty spurious decision making and somehow i ended up with Rahm uploaded to several CASH games rather than GPP. Now that was clearly a mistake due to fatigue or over extending myself. I’m not going to pretend i didnt mean to play a good deal of Rahm this week but I assure you I would have NEVER intentionally played him in freaking cash lol. Until DK fixes their lineups page I am going to scale back by MME.

    I dont need to MME baseball anymore to hit the last bit of “achievements” crowns that I plan to hit… and as i stated i will be shifting my focus away from golf towards football as I believe it holds a massive amount of edge relative to golf particularly during non-major events.

    I will still play golf because frankly it is my favorite DFS sport and I believe in my ability to become a long-term profitable DFS golf participant. Perhaps that’s my overconfidence bias kicking in again. Which again is defined as “people who demonstrate unwarranted faith in their own intuitive reasoning, judgments, and/or cognitive abilities”.

    Ive been gambling in large quantities for large amounts for years. If ive learned anything is that the people who think they know everything are the worst gamblers out there. Real, legitimate, successful gamblers are ALWAYS lookking to get better whether thats via information, improving their process, or eliminating bias.

    Truly intelligent people are smart enough to know they don’t know everything. Two of my good friends are some of the most successful poker players in the world. When i lived with one of them for awhile he used to recite hand histories from weeks ago…hearing the thought process behind them was truly amazing… sometimes id ask him to critique my play… what i learned most from him is that i was focusing on stuff that didnt matter like “should i call on the turn” and completely ignoring or not paying enough attention to critical pieces of information like what are chip stacks were like, what the player tendency BEHIND me was… or if there was a two tone flop…

    If you’re strictly focusing on who you think is going to play good golf this week you’re missing out on critical concepts of DFS. You dont beat this game simply by selecting good golfers every week. Even if you were to come in 75th percentile on EVERY ENTRY every week you would still lose 100% of your investment…think about the ramifications of that for a second.

    Anyone with a shred of intelligence and capability to succeed at DFS knows they dont know everything

  • Jamcclea

    I can’t believe Woodland and ZJ stormed back to make the cut.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    I think this is the best I have done at golf this year and I am stinking up the joint the last few hours..I think that signals retirement LOL especially if NA misses this cut on me.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    The cut is -1?

  • walkoff9

    Xander 227 yard drive into the rough. 267 to the green.

    Needs a miracle par. What a clown.

  • walkoff9

    @XxHeisenbergxX said...

    The cut is -1?

    Even at the moment

  • jlowery73

    2012 DDC Main Event Champion

    • 2014 FAFC Finalist

    • x3

      2015 FACFC Finalist

    Wowzers Tiger just missed like a 5 footer to end at E

  • walkoff9

    Molinari about to miss another 7 footer.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Jamcclea said...

    I can’t believe Woodland and ZJ stormed back to make the cut.

    👍ZJ better play than Rose this week….😆

  • ttucowboy84

    Moli with a 7 ft bird look coming. Make it please

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    @mtdurham said...

    I dont know how you could read my posts and have your main takeaway be that im attacking you…

    He wasn’t even talking to you, lol.

  • js5734

    God dammit Xander!! Need a miracle par save

  • walkoff9

    If suspect even being the cut is like 95% now.

  • lfn1992

    Wait… Kevin Na and Danny Lee are ruining lineups?

  • walkoff9

    Molinari misses from 8 8 10 7

    Most ridiculous missed cut.

  • js5734

    🖕Xander

  • lfn1992

    For that last bit of snark I can 100% say Moli will not birdie 18 and make the cut because bad LFN karma, sorry everyone

  • js5734

    6 ft for Xander par

  • ttucowboy84

    Moli you f’n trash bag. Rose and Moli need to throw their putters in the dumpster.

  • Kp24

    Why would I even play Moli over Fleetwood. What in the heck (talking to me self)

  • Jamcclea

    14 birdies…2 triples… good lord DJ.

  • Ryweezycf

    Cut will be E unfortunately. Not enough guys at +1 that can move it.

  • mtdurham

    @Trappist1 said...

    Yes, knowing 5/6 in the nuts line-up might ease the dilemma a bit. But as we do not have 20/20 hindsight in the real world it becomes even more complicated. This is the best piece I have read so far on the subject. http://www.bettingtalk.com/massive-multi-top-attraction/

    Yes and take note of who wrote that article. Ed Miller, a highly successful poker author, who wrote some of the earliest mass read works on the subject. He is one of the best at explaining things in layman ‘s terms and even that article starts to get confusing pretty quickly.

    If you play MME you understand what he’s saying because no doubt you encounter this type of stuff daily and have probably lost quite bit of money the hard way (i.e. paying your tuition) while you learned it first hand.

    If you’re not an MME guy or just not very good at understading theoretical concepts in general you’re main takeaway from the article is probably still going to be “if i had a bigger bankroll i’d win more money”.

    It’s like in poker when you hear novices complain about the “big stacks” at a cash game. Not realizing that the reverse is actually true because small stacks actually have a massive edge on big stacks in a cash game since they stand to lose so much less and can be more aggressive getting chips in the middle.

  • walkoff9

    Never have gotten Molinari right.

    Cant make this shit up.

  • walkoff9

    Molinari off the map now.

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