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  • whodat2

    When: August 23-26

    Where: Old Westbury, NY

    Course: Ridgewood Country Club | A Par 71 playing at 7385 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Dustin Johnson at -13

    Last Year’s Cut: +2

    Coverage: PGATourLive| Golf Channel | CBS

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • ttucowboy84

    Rose at 60% + Moli at 50% = 12/86 6/6s. So bad. I do have 2 Koepka 6/6s. Just going to have to hope something pops. Preparing for my first L after 5 straight weeks of profit.

  • timusbr

    @mtdurham said...

    That’s just it.. i dont really know where i need to get better….share some theoretical insight or player ownership % thoughts for next weeks tournament based on what you’ve seen so far these two days…. do you feel people are going to ride the hot hand in these playoffs or be contrarians… ?

    A guy like Rahm… what are your thoughts on his ownership next week? I see people talking about recent form and ownership % a lot as reasons to play a player but i dont hear a lot of people assessing a guys relative value… like when his form too poor to overlook and a low ownership % is not enough for you to pull the trigger?

    I will tell you anything you want about my thought process as stupid as it may seem. When I have actually looked at. The course(what type of scoring per hole for each hole)( and I rely on the google sheets guy for this, read it he is very accurate in the general description. Always), the course history of players, my assumptions of how I think the tourney will play. (probable cut, winners score.) Then I pick my player pool. I read what people like who the chalks are and I try to mimic the salary distribution and see what they are going to do. Then I experiment with extremes, top salaries, medium salaries. So I have a great idea of LU construction possibilities. Then I play with my player pool. who do I like more than others. where are my pivot points. Each week is different and who I play, how much I play, and In what contests I play is at this point.

    I love and make choices on stats all the time, but really I noticed every top salary guy is hi in any model I made. Every week or I should say day, the guy that will win you money, wasn’t top anything in the rank of stats in the PGA site.

  • mtdurham

    I feel like this was one of the easier weeks for me as far as picking studs who did well (with the exception of Rahm) but one of my least successful weeks picking low priced golfers.

    My Kevin Tway lineups look pretty good and Bryson of course (though i dont really consider him a sleeper) . Im shocked at how low Bryson ownership was this week at that price point.

    Other than that most of my guys are either thoroughly unimpressive like Austin Cook/Pan/Lee…

    One thing that really chaps my buns… i cut my player pool down and i have a guy who remains in it like bryson… but then the ratings system on the 3rd party site i use doesnt like him so it doesnt put him hardly in any lineups. like i ended up with massive amounts of rahm and tiny amounts of bryson . if the lineups page on draftkings WEBSITE WORKED i woulda seen little things like this and been able to tweak it but you cant just rifle thru 250 lineups on your phone and expect to notice every little detail like that. I cant stress enough how much of a failure this is for DK and how angry it makes me on a daily basis.

    And im cutting down my MME significantly strictly due to it because i cant take it any longer…

    it’s also a major issue before lineup lock or with late scratches in other sports… i get stuck utilizing global swap bc i cant manually switch guys in and out. Absolutely Ridiculous that a company of massive proportion cant fix something so basic when an overwhelming majority of their revenue is driven from MME players. A company who churned 85% of his player pool better be concerned with retaining the other 15%, especially their biggest ones.

    Im guessing a lot of people have much more computer savvy than i do and they dont need the lineups page to work as badly as I do. No functionality on that page is an absolute killer for me. I have noticed it got much worse during baseball season so hopefully reducing my volume there will help. i didnt have this problem when i played 200 basketball lineups.

    Why on earth do they leave old lineups up for DAYS AND DAYS who cares… old news… its causing your website NOT TO WORK… .thats a litttle more important than who my 2nd baseman was 4 nights ago on a min cash.

  • Jamcclea

    10/50 6/6 best is 319.5
    4 of those 6/6 have Lovemark on them…. but it will probably be a miracle for him to hold on to it.

  • BIF

    @walkoff9 said...

    Molinari misses from 8 8 10 7

    Most ridiculous missed cut.

    Rose losing over 6 shots putting is more ridiculous

    Got 5/6 in my FGWC lineup thanks to Rose
    Sitting around 150th right now
    39 guys got 6/6
    73 of us have 5/6

    I should move up 1 cash level to win $3K and possibly one more for $4K if one of my guys can get into Top 5 but that is prob my max unless the whole lineup goes ham.

  • yisman

    I haven’t been paying close attention. I used Snedeker (made my yahoo lineups late Wednesday night)

    I’m signed up for golf alerts on my phone but never even got an alert

    Yahoo finally updated him to a red X and I got a zero

    First time I’ve been burned like this. I guess he withdrew after lock?

  • Logan7777

    @mtdurham said...

    Depends.. i would say yes its worth it if your intention is to read about DFS strategy. If not then just skip my posts and read the ones where people tilt about bogeys.

  • mtdurham

    My best lineup is only 316 FPS… and even then it’s in a freaking 13 man private game with like a $100 prize pool. i hate when that happens. gonna have to ttry to win with quantity over quality and thats a very scary prospect seeing how 6/6 jumped all the way to like 17% im guesing due to the massive tie…

    THe good news i guess is that the course issnt giving up that many birdies so i dont think 6/6 is necessarily that a big advantage over 5/6 this week so you can still cash a decent chunk with 5/6. A lot of my 5/6 are the JT poston or keith mitchell so ive got quite a bit of quality golfers on those squads… if you got rahm or rose on a team let’s face it, it probably didnt go 5/6

  • mtdurham

    @yisman said...

    I haven’t been paying close attention. I used Snedeker (made my yahoo lineups late Wednesday night)

    I’m signed up for golf alerts on my phone but never even got an alert

    Yahoo finally updated him to a red X and I got a zero

    First time I’ve been burned like this. I guess he withdrew after lock?

    ON DK yes… not sure about yahoo but i believe so.. it was a very late withdraw… i havent heard anyone say they subbed him out.

    he was priced super high on DK so not many people had him but on yahoo the min price made him autoplay for a lot of guys

  • Pilobious

    @mtdurham said...

    the ratings system on the 3rd party site i use doesnt like him

    Just curious, did this site like Lovemark or Sean O’Hair?

    That would be impressive.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    25/29 players made thru this week from my player pool…Rahm was a killer
    34% 6/6
    45% 5/6

  • Unico10

    • 681

      RG Overall Ranking

    Was very heavy on Rose+Moli…. 4/50 6/6 worst ever for me. One 6/6 has Lovermark and the other 3 are the saddest 6/6 you’ll ever see

  • BIF

    Only played 8 lineups this week

    16 golfers and 13 made the cut
    7/8 or 87.5% Day is good
    6/8 or 75% Rose hurts
    2/8 Molinari and 1/8 Grace

    Still ended up with 1 LU with 6/6 and 5 with 5/6 plus 2 4/6

    Gonna likely cash $3-4K with my 5/6 in FGWC and my 6/6 is sitting good in a couple single entries – not what I dreamed of on Wed night but that’ll still fund a few weeks of NFL for me

  • timusbr

    82 of 150 are 6/6 55%
    59 of 150 are 5/6
    9 of 150 are 4/6

    highest is 298.5 in 553 place. I had 7 guys scrape in at even. A ton of LU’s just off the cash line.
    If things start going more my way, I could have a great week. Now its looking min cash on a bunch.

  • mtdurham

    @Pilobious said...

    Just curious, did this site like Lovemark or Sean O’Hair?

    That would be impressive.

    I don’t believe so though I can’t say for sure. I have a selection process that I use to cut players from my pool without regards to their ratings and then i use their ratings to get a feel for who may be over/under valued with regards to pricing/ownership/etc.

    So it’s entirely possible that they didnt make the cut based on my process alone before i even looked at them with regards to ratings.

    I find that if i look at others ratings prior to narrowing my player pool that i become too anchored in the rating that they have given them.

    That’s actually a pretty easily identifiable form of bias called anchoring and adjustment. You see it a lot in the stock market..

    Whereas overconfidence is an emotional bias, anchoring is actually a cognitive bias.

    It’s an interesting phenomenon so I’ll give the literal definition “When required to estimate a value with unknown magnitude, people generally begin by envisioning some initial default number – an “anchor” – if you will. Which they then adjust up or down to reflect subsequent information and analysis. Regardless of how the initial anchor was chosen, people tend to adjust their anchors insufficiently and produce end approximations that are consequently biased”.

    So if i come in and say “OK Xander Schauffle he’s a 77 by this rating system…. or Draftkings has him at $7,700”… and then someone says hey Xander Schauffle is the worst golfer in the Northern Hemisphere out of the sand I’m more likely to think to myself hmmm Xander should only be a 76 this week or cost $7,400. Instead of comng in with no initial estimate or “anchor” and saying “MY GOD GET THIS IDIOT OUT OF MY PLAYER POOL BEFORE I WASTE THE EQUIVALENT OF 1,982 CHICKEN NUGGETS IN BUYINS ON THIS FOOL

    I dont think youll beat the rank long term by anchoring and moving a guy up or down 2 spots in your player pool. And since everyone to some degree is using a similar ratings system i feel this is a nice way to differentiate without taking what I consider an exorbitant amount of risk. Like playing 100% of Martin Flores or fading Dustin Johnson 100% (a mistake i made one week and paid dearly for when he won the golf tournament)

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @timusbr said...

    82 of 150 are 6/6 55%
    59 of 150 are 5/6
    9 of 150 are 4/6

    highest is 298.5 in 553 place. I had 7 guys scrape in at even. A ton of LU’s just off the cash line.
    If things start going more my way, I could have a great week. Now its looking min cash on a bunch.

    Nice Job. How big was your player pool?

  • mtdurham

    @Cooper08 said...

    25/29 players made thru this week from my player pool…Rahm was a killer
    34% 6/6
    45% 5/6

    those are excellent numbers this week. just curious was rose in your poool?

  • walkoff9

    • 691

      RG Overall Ranking

    This thread this week.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @mtdurham said...

    those are excellent numbers this week. just curious was rose in your poool?

    No Rose. My misses were Rahm, Schwartzel, Chappell and Noren.

  • timusbr

    @Cooper08 said...

    Nice Job. How big was your player pool?

    46 but 13 were 1 offs.
    I made a 5 man core with 17 LU’s, I used the salary available and went down the list starting with Xander @ 7800. Lost Rose in that, so that pretty much explains the 5/6 and 4/6

  • mtdurham

    For those interested…the difference between cognitive and emotional biases is an interesting subject ,

    Emotional biases by their nature stem from impulse and intuition and are virtually impossible to eliminate. The best you can usually hope to do is mitigate them. Things like not overreacting to one good or bad week from a golfer and other things of that nature…

    Whereas with cognitive biases you can aim to severely moderate or perhaps even eliminate them. If it helps to remember Think of a cognitive bias as a “blind spot” where newly shed information can alter ones perceptions, beliefs, or logic.

    The nice thing about cognitive biases is you dont “have to know how the sausage is made” to understand that your previous belief was wrong… for instance if you were dealing with a complex mathematical formula you wouldnt have to be able to produce new results or even use the formula to understand if i told you something like “maybe we shouldnt divide by 2 anymore” .

    So when i say dont play 100% Martin Flores and i give a detailed response as to why it’s poor strategy… I’m hoping something in that explanation helps you or someone like you who is struggling with the same udnerlying concept.

    It’s certainly something i used to struggle with ass recently as last year. Id pick 3 NBA players i liked that night . Put them in 100% of my MME lineups and build rosters around my “core”. Then wonder why i was losing money even though i was doing a solid job identifying three good players every night. Now I understand that I was simply lighting money on fire with that strategy.

    When they did well i had capped upside. When they did poorly i had 100% loss potential. it’s an absolutely critical thing to understand if you want to MME profitably. If you dont want to use that or acknowledge it that’s fine. Maybe someone else will. Like i said earlier people love their cognitive dissonance .

    Thats actually another type of bias called belief perseverance… where people cling tightly to previously held beliefs when faced with conflicting information.

    Some of the counter responses include selective exposure (like responding to only one line of my post rather than the underlying concept being discussed), or selective perception (ignoring information or people who present that information and consider only information that reaffirms their previously held beliefs)

  • js5734

    @mtdurham said...

    For those interested…the difference between cognitive and emotional biases is an interesting subject ,

    Emotional biases by their nature stem from impulse and intuition and are virtually impossible to eliminate. The best you can usually hope to do is mitigate them. Things like not overreacting to one good or bad week from a golfer and other things of that nature…

    Whereas with cognitive biases you can aim to severely moderate or perhaps even eliminate them. If it helps to remember Think of a cognitive bias as a “blind spot” where newly shed information can alter ones perceptions, beliefs, or logic.

    The nice thing about cognitive biases is you dont “have to know how the sausage is made” to understand that your previous belief was wrong… for instance if you were dealing with a complex mathematical formula you wouldnt have to be able to produce new results or even use the formula to understand if i told you something like “maybe we shouldnt divide by 2 anymore” .

    So when i say dont play 100% Martin Flores and i give a detailed response as to why it’s poor strategy… I’m hoping something in that explanation helps you or someone like you who is struggling with the same udnerlying concept.

    It’s certainly something i used to struggle with ass recently as last year. Id pick 3 NBA players i liked that night . Put them in 100% of my MME lineups and build rosters around my “core”. Then wonder why i was losing money even though i was doing a solid job identifying three good players every night. Now I understand that I was simply lighting money on fire with that strategy.

    When they did well i had capped upside. When they did poorly i had 100% loss potential. it’s an absolutely critical thing to understand if you want to MME profitably. If you dont want to use that or acknowledge it that’s fine. Maybe someone else will. Like i said earlier people love their cognitive dissonance .

    Thats actually another type of bias called belief perseverance… where people cling tightly to previously held beliefs when faced with conflicting information.

    Some of the counter responses include selective exposure (like responding to only one line of my post rather than the underlying concept being discussed), or selective perception (ignoring information or people who present that information and consider only information that reaffirms their previously held beliefs)

    Can someone block this moron

  • Pilobious

    @mtdurham said...

    For those interested…the difference between cognitive and emotional biases is an interesting subject ,

    Interesting. Thanks for writing.

    I am a believer in reflexivity – although it is difficult to apply to DFS.

    “Within economics, reflexivity refers to the self-reinforcing effect of market sentiment, whereby rising prices attract buyers whose actions drive prices higher still until the process becomes unsustainable. This is an instance of a positive feedback loop. The same process can operate in reverse leading to a catastrophic collapse in prices.”

    Wikipedia

  • whodat2

    @walkoff9 said...

    This thread this week.

    No shit, I was thinking the same thing…. and in no way am I reading those long posts. Too much coffee + too much ADD.

  • timusbr

    no offense but what is the above? can someone summarize? biases, people have them. then what?

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