PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: August 23-26

    Where: Old Westbury, NY

    Course: Ridgewood Country Club | A Par 71 playing at 7385 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Dustin Johnson at -13

    Last Year’s Cut: +2

    Coverage: PGATourLive| Golf Channel | CBS

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • walkoff9

    People actually paid 8600 for Na and got 50 in showdown…

  • ARightTouch

    I thought I had 2 6/6 to sweat this weekend, but apparently its only 1 now due to CT Pans utterly useless perfomance today. What a turd

  • yountingly

    • 391

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #42

      RG Tiered Ranking

    just noticed Keegs and Na got my Fantasy Draft $5 lu into 3rd place currently with DJ Day and Bryson later.

  • walkoff9

    Heck of a shot on 8 from Hoffman.

    The old hole in one on a 475 yard par 4 lol

  • walkoff9

    Hatton goes birdie, miss by 4 inches, miss by 4 inches

    Tilt is real

  • Jsffc

    keegan!

  • achesley711

    Stanley had a nice round but could’ve been even better if he didn’t miss 4 and 5 foot birdie putts on 15 and 16.

  • LionIrons

    Course seems very get-able today. Lots of birdies on 18.

  • Jsffc

    Great start for Oosty

  • LionIrons

    Wow ST says Matsy hit the 13th in 2, put it to 10 feet. Missed the eagle though, but still that’s impressive.

    Edit: ST troll.

  • jfro22

    Is this an MDF event. Can’t seem to find anything on it

  • LionIrons

    No MDF

  • LionIrons

    Ugly starts by Tony and Cantlay

  • walkoff9

    Birdies everywhere and kisner and hatton over par. Pathetic

  • mtdurham

    @Pilobious said...

    Interesting. Thanks for writing.

    I am a believer in reflexivity – although it is difficult to apply to DFS.

    “Within economics, reflexivity refers to the self-reinforcing effect of market sentiment, whereby rising prices attract buyers whose actions drive prices higher still until the process becomes unsustainable. This is an instance of a positive feedback loop. The same process can operate in reverse leading to a catastrophic collapse in prices.”

    Wikipedia

    In stocks often times during a rally youll hear people discuss what “inning” of the rally we are in… in other words how much futher is the run going to go before it inevitably ends.

    Most young guys want to get in during the first inning and get out in the 9th… as you get a little older you see the wisdom behind gettnig in during the 2nd inning and out in the 8th. And then perhaps as you get a little wiser it becomes getting in during the 3rd and out in the 7th…

    Typically, it’s simply not worth the risk to try to get in too early or too late to a stock market rally… as the frequency/size of the losses you incur when you’re wrong will offset the frequency/magnitude of the gains when you’re right. You dont have to get in at the very beginning to ride a nice rally and you don’t have to squeeze every last cent out of it either….

    Reflexivity applied to DFS i would say look at a guy like Tony Finau who has risen from $7200 to $8600 over the last three months… is he on his wasy to becoming an elite golfer? Perhaps, perhaps not… maybe he’s the #1 guy on tour a year from now and this is only the 6th or 7th inning… or maybe he’s already overachieved and he’s about to underachieve for the next 3 months at his new price point. (aka it’s the 9th inning)…

    Whatever decision i make on Tony Fianu each week im trying to make that decision based on the underlying fundamentals of his play…. and not thinking of a guy as a “good” golfer just because his price continues to rise and he’s $8600 now instead of $7200.

    Similarly, I’m not trying to base my assessment of a guy’s play based on the score he shot that week, I’m trying to base it on how he performed in each facet of the game and apply that to next week…

    I catch myself making this mistake all the time.. Let’s say for instance I have Jon Rahm ranked #15 this week and he’s $9,000… and Tony Finau ranked #12 and he’s $8600….. then let’s say I have Bryson Dechambeau ranked #24 this week at $7400 and Seamus Power at #50 for $7000..

    If im making one lineup… iid have a pretty each decision on my hands… but when im making 150? I find myself thinking “Well if take Seamus Power on this lineup I’ll be able to stretch my salary savings to ‘upgrade’ to Jon Rahm!”

    Then I thiink wait…wtf am i doing… im taking a massive downgrade on my sleeper and increasing the risk of missing the cut to “Stretch” up to a guy i have ranked LOWER than tony finau?!

    What could possibly cause that kind of behavior? Why clearly it’s the higher price attached to Rahm… .

    Now after Rahm has had several poor performances in a row this becomes easy to say “No, don’t do that you stupid moron”… kinda like Jordan Spieth at $10,800…

    but if the roles were reversed and a surging Tony Finau’s price continued rising… would i be able to play a higher ranked Rahm at $8600 instead of the “surging” $9000 Finau? Probably not.

    One thing about rallies is that they all come to an end. And the people at the end of them get slaughtered. They call this “picking up nickels in front of a steamroller”. Yeah there might be a little value there 9 times out of 10, but 1 time out of 10 there are critical losses that will more than offset those fractional gains.

    The flip side of this phenomenon is “trying to catch a falling knife” whereby a price keeps falling and certain people cant stop buying and chasing losses…. we saw this take place over the past few weeks with that Panda guy….. they got addicted to the ever cheaper prices and perhaps weren’t able to rationally view that he still offered little to no value at that price. The price was falling for a reason. The underlying fundamentals simply weren’t there. (Or at least appear not to have been). Yeah if you keep throwing a knife up in the air and tring to catch it, eventually you will… but what about the 6 times you slice your hand open leading up to it? You have to be able to evaluate the risk/reward tradeoff… How much money did you lose chasing that guy? And when it “paid off” did he help you bink a tournament? Or did he finish 58th and help lead you to a min cash?

    On the other hand a guy’s price may be falling simply because he’s out of favor because he hasn’t hit a big score lately… his fundamentals have been okay but he hasn’t won a tournament… or maybe he’s a faiirly elite like Fowler but he’s “never won a major”….

    I think Rahm will be interesting next week. If he has a similar price point and ownership then he’s perhaps the worst play on the board with his current form. But if his price drops $600 and his ownership cuts in half he might be the best play… whatever it is, I dont want the DIRECTION of price movement to influence my decision. Only the relative value is important… and price and value are two totally different things.

  • mtdurham

    @jss1218 said...

    Go to the PGA Tour Live Facebook page. It works from there.

    Careful. Im pretty sure the government uses facebook accounts as a way to ifnd you for jury duty. Thats just speculation but im not taking any chances…

  • Jsffc

    JT streaking early

  • yisman

    wound up with more Euro than PGA this week. At least I didn’t have any late withdrawals in Euro, but the results no better.

    Lost over $300 because I only got 4/6. Pavon -3 and Wang -2 close but no cigar.

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/58869266?uc=1155103250

  • walkoff9

    @Jsffc said...

    JT streaking early

    Silly price on him and day for the weekend.

  • walkoff9

    Kisner plays well t2g first 2 days but doesnt putt anywhere near his standards.

    Thought he made sense as a weekend play…and he’s the worst guy on the course.

  • Jsffc

    Yeah I didnt understand that at all. Pretty much went all in on both of them. Couldn’t fade at that price

  • Jsffc

    Keegan is unconscious right now

  • ARightTouch

    @Jsffc said...

    Keegan is unconscious right now

    Enjoy it while it lasts, I am

  • hautalak

    Glad I picked Keegs for showdown today. 144.55 with 61 holes left! Riding on Scott, Thomas, Day, and Brooksy. Here we go!

  • Hyak420

    @mtdurham said...

    In stocks often times during a rally youll hear people discuss what “inning” of the rally we are in… in other words how much futher is the run going to go before it inevitably ends.

    Most young guys want to get in during the first inning and get out in the 9th… as you get a little older you see the wisdom behind gettnig in during the 2nd inning and out in the 8th. And then perhaps as you get a little wiser it becomes getting in during the 3rd and out in the 7th…

    Typically, it’s simply not worth the risk to try to get in too early or too late to a stock market rally… as the frequency/size of the losses you incur when you’re wrong will offset the frequency/magnitude of the gains when you’re right. You dont have to get in at the very beginning to ride a nice rally and you don’t have to squeeze every last cent out of it either….

    Reflexivity applied to DFS i would say look at a guy like Tony Finau who has risen from $7200 to $8600 over the last three months… is he on his wasy to becoming an elite golfer? Perhaps, perhaps not… maybe he’s the #1 guy on tour a year from now and this is only the 6th or 7th inning… or maybe he’s already overachieved and he’s about to underachieve for the next 3 months at his new price point. (aka it’s the 9th inning)…

    Whatever decision i make on Tony Fianu each week im trying to make that decision based on the underlying fundamentals of his play…. and not thinking of a guy as a “good” golfer just because his price continues to rise and he’s $8600 now instead of $7200.

    Similarly, I’m not trying to base my assessment of a guy’s play based on the score he shot that week, I’m trying to base it on how he performed in each facet of the game and apply that to next week…

    I catch myself making this mistake all the time.. Let’s say for instance I have Jon Rahm ranked #15 this week and he’s $9,000… and Tony Finau ranked #12 and he’s $8600….. then let’s say I have Bryson Dechambeau ranked #24 this week at $7400 and Seamus Power at #50 for $7000..

    If im making one lineup… iid have a pretty each decision on my hands… but when im making 150? I find myself thinking “Well if take Seamus Power on this lineup I’ll be able to stretch my salary savings to ‘upgrade’ to Jon Rahm!”

    Then I thiink wait…wtf am i doing… im taking a massive downgrade on my sleeper and increasing the risk of missing the cut to “Stretch” up to a guy i have ranked LOWER than tony finau?!

    What could possibly cause that kind of behavior? Why clearly it’s the higher price attached to Rahm… .

    Now after Rahm has had several poor performances in a row this becomes easy to say “No, don’t do that you stupid moron”… kinda like Jordan Spieth at $10,800…

    but if the roles were reversed and a surging Tony Finau’s price continued rising… would i be able to play a higher ranked Rahm at $8600 instead of the “surging” $9000 Finau? Probably not.

    One thing about rallies is that they all come to an end. And the people at the end of them get slaughtered. They call this “picking up nickels in front of a steamroller”. Yeah there might be a little value there 9 times out of 10, but 1 time out of 10 there are critical losses that will more than offset those fractional gains.

    The flip side of this phenomenon is “trying to catch a falling knife” whereby a price keeps falling and certain people cant stop buying and chasing losses…. we saw this take place over the past few weeks with that Panda guy….. they got addicted to the ever cheaper prices and perhaps weren’t able to rationally view that he still offered little to no value at that price. The price was falling for a reason. The underlying fundamentals simply weren’t there. (Or at least appear not to have been). Yeah if you keep throwing a knife up in the air and tring to catch it, eventually you will… but what about the 6 times you slice your hand open leading up to it? You have to be able to evaluate the risk/reward tradeoff… How much money did you lose chasing that guy? And when it “paid off” did he help you bink a tournament? Or did he finish 58th and help lead you to a min cash?

    On the other hand a guy’s price may be falling simply because he’s out of favor because he hasn’t hit a big score lately… his fundamentals have been okay but he hasn’t won a tournament… or maybe he’s a faiirly elite like Fowler but he’s “never won a major”….

    I think Rahm will be interesting next week. If he has a similar price point and ownership then he’s perhaps the worst play on the board with his current form. But if his price drops $600 and his ownership cuts in half he might be the best play… whatever it is, I dont want the DIRECTION of price movement to influence my decision. Only the relative value is important… and price and value are two totally different things.

    This is a good post and makes a valid point relative to dfs golf due to the high variance. I’m a single entry guy, maybe 2-4 more if I’m feeling good about the player pool and pricing and enter it in gpps because it’s golf and you never can predict it. Perfect example this week is that I went with Ancer at $6700 on DK, I’ve played him all year at that price point and I consider it a great value pick as he’s made the cut more often than not. Difference this week is that he bogies 18 to a MC but then again, it’s golf and you can’t predict it.

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