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  • whodat2

    When: August 8-11

    Where: Jersey City, New Jersey

    Course: Liberty National CG | A Par 71 playing at 7370 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Bryson Dechambeau at -18

    Last Year’s Cut: E

    Coverage: PGATourLive| Golf Channel | CBS

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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

    2019 FGWC? (Follow BIF, wigg_ESEA, Dunzor, Felixxberg, and SpudCrowley)

  • MattLiv1212

    @BIF said...

    I don’t see any way the cut gets to -4 and maybe not even -3. Right now I’m thinking it stays at -2 (double what it is now).

    All the good scores came in the morning today plus there was rain last night keeping things soft – tomorrow probably plays a quarter of a shot or a touch more harder overall and with players swapping AM/PM times scoring will flatten out

    This is the correct take. -2 or -3 max. Would be shocked if it gets to -4, especially with player swaps and wind moving from 3-5 mph in the morning to 8-10 mph in the afternoon

  • Dewoc19

    @BIF said...

    I don’t see any way the cut gets to -4 and maybe not even -3. Right now I’m thinking it stays at -2 (double what it is now).

    All the good scores came in the morning today plus there was rain last night keeping things soft – tomorrow probably plays a quarter of a shot or a touch more harder overall and with players swapping AM/PM times scoring will flatten out

    -1 is T66, so basically the cut is -2. Maybe we dont get to -4 but I dont see how it doesnt get to -3. I can see how it would be tougher with no rain tonight but to basically play slightly better than par golf and keep it at -2 seems unlikely to me

  • Giez

    Rahm -7
    Finau -6
    CHIII -2
    VTaylor -2
    Wolff -2
    Cantalay -1

    Yeah not a great afternoon. Hopefully all make the cut.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    I have decent lineups but really all hinge on Billy HO..

    my other decent LU’s hinge on a huge rally by Straka..

    those two collapse im dead for the weekend.

  • BerkeleyBoss

    @Dewoc19 said...

    -1 is T66, so basically the cut is -2. Maybe we dont get to -4 but I dont see how it doesnt get to -3. I can see how it would be tougher with no rain tonight but to basically play slightly better than par golf and keep it at -2 seems unlikely to me

    According to datagolf, there are many possibilities. They have it at:

    -4 16.6%
    -3 21.8%
    -2 22%

    Which means it’s about 40% to be either lower than -4 or higher than -2. We shall see!

  • SpudCrowley

    • 2018 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    Sitting in 26th in the FGWC and made it through Day 1 Survivor.

    Finau -6
    Reed-5
    Spieth -4
    Thomas -4
    Xander -1
    Straka +2

    Straka will be my demise more than likely, and even after B2B eagles I had my reservations as his scorecard usually tends to be colorful. But needed to take a shot somewhere, hopefully he can get with it tomorrow.

  • kdsdawg

    is winning tickets the only way to get in the FGWC?
    If so, how may I ask?
    thanks

  • BIF

    @BerkeleyBoss said...

    According to datagolf, there are many possibilities. They have it at:

    -4 16.6%
    -3 21.8%
    -2 22%

    Which means it’s about 40% to be either lower than -4 or higher than -2. We shall see!

    Datagolf is a great site for SG stuff but their cut predictions make absolutely no sense to me

    The combined odd of a -2 or -3 cut should be like 75-80% with -4 being something like 15% and -1 like 5%

  • BIF

    @kdsdawg said...

    is winning tickets the only way to get in the FGWC?
    If so, how may I ask?
    thanks

    Yes you had to win a ticket in a FGWC Qualifier

    Entries were at a variety of price points $5, $12, $33, $130, $260, $990 and of course as the price goes down the number of entries went up.

  • BerkeleyBoss

    @BIF said...

    Datagolf is a great site for SG stuff but their cut predictions make absolutely no sense to me

    The combined odd of a -2 or -3 cut should be like 75-80% with -4 being something like 15% and -1 like 5%

    Yeah, I don’t have a ton of experience with it, but I have noticed that it seems to be a bit conservative in times where the cut seems almost assured to be a certain number.

  • zeeshan2

    need Billy H, Collin, Grillo, and Xander to do well tomorrow

  • BIF

    Current 6/6% in FGWC looks to be 6%
    Current 5/6 is 25-30%

    Would love to have my lineup stay at 6/6 after tomorrow – the Top 7.5% (Top 15) get at least $10K

  • timusbr

    Did Whodat just double up on all his comments for the year …..today
    great stuff Whodat where have you been

  • bigez952

    @BIF said...

    Current 6/6% in FGWC looks to be 6%
    Current 5/6 is 25-30%

    Would love to have my lineup stay at 6/6 after tomorrow – the Top 7.5% (Top 15) get at least $10K

    But this is a limited field event so the 6/6 % has to be way higher than a normal event as I have heard all week. So tomorrow the 6/6 % will have to quadruple since touts are never wrong lol.

  • BIF

    Chris Stroud WD

    Zero ownership in the FGWC and he was just 0.1% across the popular GPPs

  • BIF

    @bigez952 said...

    But this is a limited field event so the 6/6 % has to be way higher than a normal event as I have heard all week. So tomorrow the 6/6 % will have to quadruple since touts are never wrong lol.

    Ha ha – that was just the 200 entry FGWC but yah it all depends on the ownership of who misses the cut. If you look at Cutsweats right now, the 6/6 rate across GPPs is 8-12% and about 6% in Cash (which probably better mirrors the Lineup builds in the FGWC GPP).

    The funny part is that there is a lot of ownership sitting just inside the cut line at -2 and -1 so it is very possible the 6/6% actually drops tomorrow. The ownership just outside the current cut line at Even and +1 is about half of the ownership just inside it.

  • MattLiv1212

    Pretty solid thunderstorms as we speak in NYC. Will clear up by morning, but may marginally help morning scores even more than the wind differential between morning and afternoon

  • whodat2

    @timusbr said...

    Did Whodat just double up on all his comments for the year …..today
    great stuff Whodat where have you been

    Just felt a little froggy today I guess lol.

  • Mikeybaywatch

    @MattLiv1212 said...

    Pretty solid thunderstorms as we speak in NYC. Will clear up by morning, but may marginally help morning scores even more than the wind differential between morning and afternoon

  • BBWC_10

    @Dunzor said...

    So it looks like I will advance to round 2 of the showdown survivor. Did you other guys make it?

    Overall I think I’d have to say I’m cautiously optimistic about my FGWC lineup right now. I’m sitting pretty much middle of the pack but all my guys are still live to make the cut with halfway decent rounds and they have a lot of upward mobility available as well:

    Rose -6 (great finishing stretch)
    Reed -5
    Kokrak -3
    Xander -1 (if only he could put 2 good shots together on a single hole)
    Niemann -1
    Morikawa E (shout out for clawing his way back from +3)

    What was the cash line in the survivor showdown? I thought about getting in but I wasn’t in love with the payout structure.

  • byo34

    @MattLiv1212 said...

    Pretty solid thunderstorms as we speak in NYC. Will clear up by morning, but may marginally help morning scores even more than the wind differential between morning and afternoon

    Ya hear that Gary and Marc??? -6s tomorrow please.

  • Dunzor

    @BBWC_10 said...

    What was the cash line in the survivor showdown? I thought about getting in but I wasn’t in love with the payout structure.

    Well there was a survivor contests for just the FGWC qualifiers that pays out PGA event experience and some cash as prizes. So it was 200 entrants, top 100 advance and 100th place scored 259.9 for showdown

  • benstnick

    @BIF said...

    Yes you had to win a ticket in a FGWC Qualifier

    Entries were at a variety of price points $5, $12, $33, $130, $260, $990 and of course as the price goes down the number of entries went up.

    Out of curiosity, what buy in did you win yours at? I’ve always struggled with whether or not to pay up for the qualifiers

  • BIF

    @Dunzor said...

    Well there was a survivor contests for just the FGWC qualifiers that pays out PGA event experience and some cash as prizes. So it was 200 entrants, top 100 advance and 100th place scored 259.9 for showdown

    I’m coming back with almost the same lineup for Round 2 Showdown Survivor that I used today as none of my guys smashed (they all shot under par but only two were -4 as best score) and 5 of them were PM today so now I can get them in the hopefully better AM wave tomorrow.

    I barely survived today and I still like those guys so hopefully they play as well as I’m expecting overall.

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    @BIF said...

    I’m coming back with almost the same lineup for Round 2 Showdown Survivor that I used today as none of my guys smashed (they all shot under par but only two were -4 as best score) and 5 of them were PM so now I can get them in the hopefully better AM wave.

    I barely survived today I still like those guys

    Ancer? He hit the fairways, just needs better approach and he could be in serious contention

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