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  • whodat2

    When: August 8-11

    Where: Jersey City, New Jersey

    Course: Liberty National CG | A Par 71 playing at 7370 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Bryson Dechambeau at -18

    Last Year’s Cut: E

    Coverage: PGATourLive| Golf Channel | CBS

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

    2019 FGWC? (Follow BIF, wigg_ESEA, Dunzor, Felixxberg, and SpudCrowley)

  • BrianVT

    @timusbr said...

    It wasnt a critic. congrats to the guy. well done. I thought the question was about the type of LU in the $555 contest.

    IMHO that LU was atypical of a $5 DTG. I think you would agree to the description as stars and scrubs.

    Yes, that was my point. This mailnurs sure got feisty out of nowhere.

  • Pbasniper

    RCB withdraw for anyone who was going to light some money on fire you are now saved.

  • kps3205s

    From one of the freebie sites I use:

    Only 2 of 12 winners of the first FEC Playoffs event since 2007 came from outside of the top 25 in the world ranking. Three of the last four winners had already claimed a victory that PGA season.

  • BIF

    @Pbasniper said...

    RCB withdraw for anyone who was going to light some money on fire you are now saved.

    Dang – I was going with him on my FGWC lineup – he finally wasn’t going to be big chalk; oh well, time to rebuild…..

  • monarch

    Time to fire up the bent grass guys like Niemann?

    Ancer, An?

  • js5734

    anybody have an ownership estimate on woodland and leishman?

  • BrianVT

    @js5734 said...

    anybody have an ownership estimate on woodland and leishman?

    Both around 9%

  • BrianVT

    @BIF said...

    Dang – I was going with him on my FGWC lineup – he finally wasn’t going to be big chalk; oh well, time to rebuild…..

    Wife pregnant and due soon

  • keephustlincuz

    @BIF said...

    Dang – I was going with him on my FGWC lineup – he finally wasn’t going to be big chalk; oh well, time to rebuild…..

    No need to rebuild… 2 guys at the same price.

  • Felixxberg

    kbarnhill, is there anyone who stands out as a must play after your research?

    I’m trying not to overthink it, but I also want to give myself the best chances out of this opportunity to win big, and I know you normally do some fine research. Any help (from everyone) would be gladly appreciated!

  • Felixxberg

    @Felixxberg said...

    I just can’t do it, not after the meltdown he just had.

    I made four lineups and he’s now in one.

    Not sure if that’s the lineup that will make the final cut. It’s just that if $8K Spieth is going to be underowned, I want to be part of it. He had an average season, but he showed up in majors: 21st, 3rd, 65th and 20th.

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @Felixxberg said...

    kbarnhill, is there anyone who stands out as a must play after your research?

    I’m trying not to overthink it, but I also want to give myself the best chances out of this opportunity to win big, and I know you normally do some fine research. Any help (from everyone) would be gladly appreciated!

    I’m treating this like a major and I’m really looking for SG: T2G, Par 5 scoring, SG: Approach, BoB% and Scrambling.

    You’ll find a lot of guys in balanced builds that fit this profile. I always love Kopeka and Rory, don’t get me wrong, but I will start a lot of builds with JT, Fleetwood or Cantlay this week and load up on the 9000-7400 range.

    I’m done with my research yet but these are the stats I am overweighting. I don’t like the under 7k crowd and will stay away outside of a few targeted players.

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    @Felixxberg said...

    I made four lineups and he’s now in one.

    Not sure if that’s the lineup that will make the final cut. It’s just that if $8K Spieth is going to be underowned, I want to be part of it. He had an average season, but he showed up in majors: 21st, 3rd, 65th and 20th.

    Early projections 3-4% owned. Also drew the PM/AM Wave.

    AM Friday looks to be ideal wind conditions.

  • lfn1992

    @BrianVT said...

    Was just looking at this winning lineup for the $555. I thought higher dollar GPPs were usually a little closer to cash and playing “safe.” This seems like the ballsiest lineup to throw $555 into. Is this pretty abnormal? I know these sub $7k guys were probably the chalkier ones of the sub $7k, but still, to go with three of them and actually get lucky enough for all 3 of them to pay off seems like riding on a lot of luck for that much money.

    Ryan Armour 6,900
    Roberto Castro 6,500
    Billy Horschel 9,600
    Rory Sabatini 9,200
    Webb Simpson 11,200
    Johnson Wagner 6,600

    With all the talk about this winning LU, I see it mostly as a “how do I get Billy Ho, Rory, and Webb on my LU and fit three scrubs in there to make it work?” question. Speculating a little, but it seems like a top-down stars/scrubs (“how do I make BH/RS/WS work?) rather than bottom-up scrubs/stars (“I think Ryan Armour is going to be one of the top golfers on the slate, who do I assemble around him?”)

    If you think about it, if he was uber-confident that BH/RS/WS were going to be T20, all he would need is 2 out of his 3 scrubs to work out in order to most likely min cash for a 5/6. So it’s probably not as ballsy as it looks. IMO.

  • lfn1992

    @Pbasniper said...

    RCB withdraw for anyone who was going to light some money on fire you are now saved.

    Thanks. Replacing RCB

  • Felixxberg

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    I’m treating this like a major and I’m really looking for SG: T2G, Par 5 scoring, SG: Approach, BoB% and Scrambling.

    You’ll find a lot of guys in balanced builds that fit this profile. I always love Kopeka and Rory, don’t get me wrong, but I will start a lot of builds with JT, Fleetwood or Cantlay this week and load up on the 9000-7400 range.

    I’m done with my research yet but these are the stats I am overweighting. I don’t like the under 7k crowd and will stay away outside of a few targeted players.

    The consensus between different people and websites seems to be SG:T2G and SG:Approach. That said, I find it hard to rely entirely on those stats as golfers didn’t play the same tournaments. Morikawa, for example, is more than great in those stats, but he almost only played birdie fests/easy courses.

    I’m also treating it like a major and I know for sure I’m not touching anyone over $10K or under $7K when the middle tier is loaded like that.

    My biggest question marks right now (it changes constantly) are Day and Spieth. They feel underpriced for their raw talent, but they’re hard to trust. If you showed me those prices last year, everyone would have been on them.

  • hautalak

    @Felixxberg said...

    My biggest question marks right now (it changes constantly) are Day and Spieth. They feel underpriced for their raw talent, but they’re hard to trust. If you showed me those prices last year, everyone would have been on them.

    Drop a step and go Sabbs?

  • lfn1992

    @Felixxberg said...

    The consensus between different people and websites seems to be SG:T2G and SG:Approach. That said, I find it hard to rely entirely on those stats as golfers didn’t play the same tournaments. Morikawa, for example, is more than great in those stats, but he almost only played birdie fests/easy courses.

    I’m also treating it like a major and I know for sure I’m not touching anyone over $10K or under $7K when the middle tier is loaded like that.

    My biggest question marks right now (it changes constantly) are Day and Spieth. They feel underpriced for their raw talent, but they’re hard to trust. If you showed me those prices last year, everyone would have been on them.

    I agree with you in that it seems pretty tricky to get the right combination. My thought is, and I will be adhering to this myself: Don’t overlook putting stats. I think the field will overweight SG:T2G and forget about SG:Putting.

  • JaBr

    @lfn1992 said...

    I agree with you in that it seems pretty tricky to get the right combination. My thought is, and I will be adhering to this myself: Don’t overlook putting stats. I think the field will overweight SG:T2G and forget about SG:Putting.

    AKA the Adam Scott factor.

  • JaBr

    @Felixxberg said...

    The consensus between different people and websites seems to be SG:T2G and SG:Approach. That said, I find it hard to rely entirely on those stats as golfers didn’t play the same tournaments. Morikawa, for example, is more than great in those stats, but he almost only played birdie fests/easy courses.

    I’m also treating it like a major and I know for sure I’m not touching anyone over $10K or under $7K when the middle tier is loaded like that.

    My biggest question marks right now (it changes constantly) are Day and Spieth. They feel underpriced for their raw talent, but they’re hard to trust. If you showed me those prices last year, everyone would have been on them.

    To speak of your example, are you fading Morikawa this week due to the courses he’s excelled on?

  • js5734

    is poulter a good course fit? he keeps catching my eye

  • Felixxberg

    @mitchsnyderdfw said...

    Early projections 3-4% owned. Also drew the PM/AM Wave.

    AM Friday looks to be ideal wind conditions.

    3-4% would be nice! I haven’t looked at weather yet. I’m waiting for Kevin’s Roth “article”, which doesn’t seem to be out yet.

  • MonkeraiKnight

    Had my first go at building a model on Fantasy National this week. It’s more than likely awful, but for the record the top 3 are Tiger, Rickie, Rory. It also loves Na, Bradley & G Mac, and has me interested in Furyk and Poulter. Now to wade through all the form, fitness, ownership and family status considerations to build a player pool.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    So I was listening to some fantasy guys today and they are saying there is going to be a ton of 6/6 lineups this week so I think I am going to try a different approach..I think I am going to do a 1 lineup train in the cheap tourneys, .10/.25/.50/1.00 same line up in each tourney 20x and take my chances.

    The same way if I would play a pick 3 in horse racing if I think it might be a chalk return..where I would play one horse/one horse/ and then all and hit the repeat button for a 1.00 20-30x if the prediction is true there will be a high percentage of 6 for 6 then I can’t see making a ton of LU’s that might not even cash.

    That is going to be my approach this week I think along with my usual single entry tourneys.

  • Felixxberg

    I’ll answer everyone in one post to not pollute the thread:

    @hautalak: Sabbatini is very steady and I could see him finishing in the top 40, but I don’t really see him contending in such a loaded field. According to wikipedia, he hasn’t won anything since 2011. I’m always cautious with guys like him who have always been average and get on a hot streak at 35+ years old.

    @lfn1992: That’s where Spieth finally becomes relevant.

    @JaBr: He was in my initial build and in 2 of my 4 lineups, but he’s not in my current FGWC lineup. He has been great so far, but he feels expensive when you look at the names around him. I think he’ll make the cut and will probably finish top 40, but I’m not confident enough to put him in my FGWC lineup (that might change again). All his great scores were on easy courses. What he will do in that kind of venue and field is a question mark.

    @js5734: I’ll let others answer as they have better golf stats skills than me.

    I’ll play only one lineup, and decisions are damn hard to make!

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