PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: July 19-22

    Where: Angus, Scotland (5 hours ahead of eastern time)

    Course: Carnoustie GC | A par 71 links-style course, plating at 7402 yards.

    Last Year’s Winner: Jordan Spieth at -12

    Last Year’s Cut: +5

    Cut Rule: Top 70 plus ties. No MDF

    Coverage: Golf Channel – Thur / Fri at 1:30am EST (possibly Sat and Sun as well) | NBC – Sat / Sun at 7am EST | DirecTV channels 701-704

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    There is no shot-tracker on PGAtour.com this week. | www.theopen.com will possibly have one, as well as the ability to stream coverage.

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • keephustlincuz

    @dangasin said...

    I would go with hoffman because he used to rock a sweet mullet. Maybe someone else can chime in with a more statistical choice though…

    Hoffman is not really a bomber. But if he had a sweet mullet that overrides stats, course history and current form for me.

    I am gonna go see if I can find a pic of the mullet. If I like it I’ll put him in.

  • dangasin

    Michael Kim is in for a rude awakening this week.

  • mr_papageorgio

    Haven’t seen much talk of Rahm this week. Anyone else like him? Thinking about starting with him and Tiger and building from there.

  • byo34

    @dangasin said...

    Michael Kim is in for a rude awakening this week.

    I wonder what the highest score here is.

    Maybe he can back to back break a course record!

  • keephustlincuz

    @byo34 said...

    I wonder what the highest score here is.

    Maybe he can back to back break a course record!

    Giant let down spot at elevated ownership. No thanks.

  • Matoshea

    I have 7300 left and was thinking Wood or Sullivan. Any thoughts?

  • hokie2009

    PART TWO pga dfs GOLF TALK podcast for the open championship! like / comment / feedback / shares welcome!!!

    https://soundcloud.com/zach-trexler/117-open-part-two-july-17-2018

  • kps3205s

    @Matoshea said...

    I have 7300 left and was thinking Wood or Sullivan. Any thoughts?

    I have them both in 1 LU and individually in 1 LU each among my 6 LU’s. I am 5/6 on Ryan Fox. Might want to look at him also.

  • monarch

    Bryson at a nice discount. He has the air game to go low if you can get past the “shoulder”. I think he is fine.

  • keephustlincuz

    @Cooper08 said...

    Ryan Fox

    You big on fox this week?

  • hautalak

    @Quadhole said...

    henley, Xander ?

    Just those 2 for me right now but not sure at what clip.

  • TnRiddles

    • Blogger of the Month

    IMO , the folks that believe bombers are just going to overpower this course are in for a rude awakening

  • TrustinthePlan

    @TnRiddles said...

    IMO , the folks that believe bombers are just going to overpower this course are in for a rude awakening

    Exactly, there is a reason ZJ has made the cut in the last 11 Opens. Now that I said that, I will probably jinx him.

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    So in the ownership projections there are 5 guys up top at around 25% and then another 5 that will be UNDER 10%.

    25%: DJ, Rose, Rickie, Fleetwood, Koepka
    Under 10%: Rory, Spieth, JT, Sergio, Phil

    A bunch of other golfers in the 8ks project in/around the 20s also like Casey, Stenson and Noren.

    We have to ask ourselves who the landmines are this week. Or, if we are taking the 25%+ guys… who are our under 2% guys that we have to pair them with? The pricing all seems very fair until you get to about 7500 on DK.

    Usually in majors you have tons of guys under 6700 to pick from to make the lineups with 3+ studs. Its not the case this week. There is an extreme drop in talent around 6800 on DK, with about 5-6 viable guys 6700 and under. Most people will go “balanced” an not even dip under the 7200 guys. I think all the 7200 golfers (Finau, ZJ, Webb, Sullivan, Westwood) will carry much higher ownership than projected.

    This is a tricky lineup building week.

  • BIF

    @bama16 said...

    Koepka said he had rather be 40 yards from green instead of playing short of bunkers. The bunkers are very penal,not so much the rough..This approach may lead to more birdies than bogeys I am going to do more research on how far out the fairway bunkers are,to see if this is advantage on which holes.

    There are some holes where if you pick the wrong line with the Driver or misjudge the roll out you will end up in gorse bushes or the worst of the rough/fescue as it rolls through the “thinner” stuff and it’ll settle in the thicker stuff.

    I know these guys are 100 times more consistent than me but when I’ve played practice rounds, I lock in on some holes and say “for sure I can hit driver here anywhere” or “anywhere right of the fairway is ok” then when the tourney starts you suddenly hit it 3 more degrees right and you end up in a grove of trees that you never even knew existed as you didn’t hit it anywhere near there in your practice rounds.

    While the winds are fairly calm the first 2 days (that’s as far as I’ve looked out) – they are coming from the opposite (of prevailing) direction so that could make things play a little differently as well.

    Saw a clip on Patrick Reed and he had some friends or family watching where his tee shots landed yesterday and then measured how much bounce and roll they got. He hit a 3W off the tee and they marked where it landed and the distance to where it finished – it was 109 yards of bounce and roll !! Other shots were 60-70 yards.

    How do you consistently get it right over 2 or 4 days with a 30-50 yards difference in roll out on each shot ? Also i saw guys talking about landing a shot on the fringe will bite but if you come up a couple feet short in the air, you could end up 20 yards over a green.

    Gonna be fun to watch !!

  • keephustlincuz

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    So in the ownership projections there are 5 guys up top at around 25% and then another 5 that will be UNDER 10%.

    25%: DJ, Rose, Rickie, Fleetwood, Koepka
    Under 10%: Rory, Spieth, JT, Sergio, Phil

    A bunch of other golfers in the 8ks project in/around the 20s also like Casey, Stenson and Noren.

    We have to ask ourselves who the landmines are this week. Or, if we are taking the 25%+ guys… who are our under 2% guys that we have to pair them with? The pricing all seems very fair until you get to about 7500 on DK.

    Usually in majors you have tons of guys under 6700 to pick from to make the lineups with 3+ studs. Its not the case this week. There is an extreme drop in talent around 6800 on DK, with about 5-6 viable guys 6700 and under. Most people will go “balanced” an not even dip under the 7200 guys. I think all the 7200 golfers (Finau, ZJ, Webb, Sullivan, Westwood) will carry much higher ownership than projected.

    This is a tricky lineup building week.

    I’m with you. That group will be 8 to 10 percent higher owned that people think.

  • Dunzor

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    So in the ownership projections there are 5 guys up top at around 25% and then another 5 that will be UNDER 10%.

    25%: DJ, Rose, Rickie, Fleetwood, Koepka
    Under 10%: Rory, Spieth, JT, Sergio, Phil

    A bunch of other golfers in the 8ks project in/around the 20s also like Casey, Stenson and Noren.

    We have to ask ourselves who the landmines are this week. Or, if we are taking the 25%+ guys… who are our under 2% guys that we have to pair them with? The pricing all seems very fair until you get to about 7500 on DK.

    Usually in majors you have tons of guys under 6700 to pick from to make the lineups with 3+ studs. Its not the case this week. There is an extreme drop in talent around 6800 on DK, with about 5-6 viable guys 6700 and under. Most people will go “balanced” an not even dip under the 7200 guys. I think all the 7200 golfers (Finau, ZJ, Webb, Sullivan, Westwood) will carry much higher ownership than projected.

    This is a tricky lineup building week.

    Agreed, you are going to see very few ‘stars and scrubs’ builds this week and a lot more balanced lineups since there are a number of world class golfers in the 8K range. Thanks for sharing the ownership projections, I was definitely wondering about some of those myself.

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    If anyone is interested here are the top 20 pt/$ plays on DK from last years Open…. top 6 were 7200 and under, then Spieth. Interesting that Spieth, Kuchar, Leishman, Grace and Koepka are the only OVER 7200 options from last year in this stat.

    Player FPTS Salary pt/k
    1 Matt Kuchar 100 7200 13.89
    2 Hao-Tong Li 88.5 6400 13.83
    3 Matthew Southgate 79.5 6300 12.62
    4 Rafael Cabrera-Bello 78 6700 11.64
    5 Xander Schauffele 74.5 6500 11.46
    6 Austin Connelly 73 6400 11.41
    7 Jordan Spieth 128.5 11600 11.08
    8 Chan Kim 65 6100 10.66
    9 Aaron Baddeley 66 6200 10.65
    10 Marc Leishman 80.5 7800 10.32
    11 Richard Bland 64.5 6300 10.24
    12 Chris Wood 69.5 6800 10.22
    13 Charley Hoffman 67.5 6700 10.07
    14 Jason Dufner 65 6600 9.85
    15 Branden Grace 76 8000 9.50
    16 Laurie Canter 57 6100 9.34
    17 Jamie Lovemark 59.5 6400 9.30
    18 Richie Ramsay 61 6600 9.24
    19 Brooks Koepka 83 9000 9.22
    20 Scott Hend 58 6300 9.21

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    There are 20 players priced 8k and above, DJ to Leishman…..below is how this group of players have performed at the Open Championship since 2013..

    4 of last five winners have came from this group.
    DJ, Spieth, Day, Rahm, Garcia, Stenson have not missed a cut.

    2017
    5 places in T10 while 4 Mc

    2016
    5 places in the T10 while 3 MC

    2015
    6 T10 while 2 MC

    2014
    4 T10 while 2 MC

    2013 only year with bad weather more than one day
    5 T10 while 6 MC

    Moral of story, 50% of the T10 have come from this group of 20 players, while 50% of the T10 have come from the remaining 136 golfers! What I find interesting is that many people will FADE at least 50% if not more of these 20 golfers. Every lineup should have at least three of these guys, most four and even some with five. Yes ownership is important but if you are MME it’s not hard to be at field or over field ownership on 14-15 of the 20 players.

  • BIF

    @SirJohnDaly said...

    Just saw a stat on Golf channel- since 2011 average age of winners in masters, us open, pga championship has been 26-29. Average age of The Open champion is 36. Experience matters more here than any other major

    2011 Els
    2012 Clarke
    2013 Phil

    Those 3 have skewed the average age a bit but agree the average age is probably 3-4 years older

    If you went one more year back:
    2010 Louis won when he was 27

  • Dunzor

    Since this is my first time doing 20 lineups I need some advice regarding player pool. I think I’m gonna go about 50% on 3 guys with a few more in the 30-40% range and then a bunch of 10-20%. About how many guys do most of you put in your pool total for a 20 lineup build?

    I’ve narrowed it down a good bit to about 34 guys at the moment and probably need to cut a few more but I’m trying to figure out what will be about right…20? 25? 30?

  • BIF

    @dangasin said...

    I agree with you. When you hear Brooks koepka saying DJ went 4 iron – wedge on one of the par 5s, it is extremely tempting to pick DJ

    Did he hit the green with Wedge ? and did he make Birdie ?

    I don’t care what clubs people hit – I only care about how many shots it takes them to get it in the hole !

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @keephustlincuz said...

    You big on fox this week?

    I will have 6-8% Fox but no more than 10%, want to be double the field.

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    @dhackel41 said...

    Why are there so little contest? You would think they would have released the rest of them by now.

    No $8 150 entry max
    No $20 3 entry max
    No $3 20 entry max

    There’s another $8 ME contest in the lobby now. Only $15K pool, 66 max- FYI

    EDIT: My mistake, this is a showdown only contest

  • BIF

    @Matoshea said...

    I have 7300 left and was thinking Wood or Sullivan. Any thoughts?

    Sully or Hao Tong Li

    Best 2 Links players in that price range (in my opinion)

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