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  • whodat2

    When: January 14-17

    Where: Honolulu, Hawaii

    Course: Waialae Country Club | A Par 70 playing at 7044 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Cameron Smith at -11

    Last Year’s Cut: +1

    Coverage: Golf Channel

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Cup 2021 Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • BrianVT

    A somewhat normal week of golf with a cut and it’s not a birdiefest.

  • titanhawks

    CHIII and five other guys

  • Money0227

    Why are a lot of the bigger names not in the field (since they were already in Hawaii). Do they get tired of being in one of the most beautiful places in the world?

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    @Money0227 said...

    Why are a lot of the bigger names not in the field (since they were already in Hawaii). Do they get tired of being in one of the most beautiful places in the world?

    Most likely it’s scheduling, take two weeks off and be ready for playing the next three to four tournaments starting with the Farmer’s at Torrey Pines and ending with the Genesis.

    Also the Sony is among lowest purses for a full field event on the Tour.

  • bwe11s

    Would like to hear other people’s opinions, but I think the contests being offered so far on DK suck, particularly the $10 tournament. Out of 70,588 people, only 70 spots can cash $100+. That’s absurd.

  • BrianVT

    @bwe11s said...

    Would like to hear other people’s opinions, but I think the contests being offered so far on DK suck, particularly the $10 tournament. Out of 70,588 people, only 70 spots can cash $100+. That’s absurd.

    That’s still 10x your entry on that ticket, but I agree that the structures suck in general. I try to look at how many lineups get paid. Only 20% of lineups will cash anything in that contest. In Milly Makers (typically during Majors), that can get down to 17-18%.

    Wait for the rest to be posted once salaries are out. Typically, single entry contests cash about 23% of entries, and the 3-max and 20-max contests cash about 25-26% of entries. If you’re trying to at least get your money back, those are probably a better “bet.” Pretty much all GPP contests require that lottery-style luck to hit the top, which also gets the lottery-style prize.

  • Shaver933

    Does anyone know what changed last year? It looks like this was historically a tournament with the best scores in the -20’s. Last year the winning score was -11. Weather? Or has the course been altered?

    edit: Looks like they played in a windstorm last year. Will be interesting to see if MKF messes up their lines by looking at just last year’s data…

  • BrianVT

    @Shaver933 said...

    Does anyone know what changed last year? It looks like this was historically a tournament with the best scores in the -20’s. Last year the winning score was -11. Weather? Or has the course been altered?

    edit: Looks like they played in a windstorm last year. Will be interesting to see if MKF messes up their lines by looking at just last year’s data…

    Oh yea, I guess it still is a birdiefest. I hadn’t looked at all scores yet when I made my first comment; just saw the -11 at the top of page. I wonder if we should just ignore last year’s results when doing our own analysis?

  • Money0227

    @Shaver933 said...

    Does anyone know what changed last year? It looks like this was historically a tournament with the best scores in the -20’s. Last year the winning score was -11. Weather? Or has the course been altered?

    edit: Looks like they played in a windstorm last year. Will be interesting to see if MKF messes up their lines by looking at just last year’s data…

    I was going to say…the wind affected both tournaments last year.

    I doubt MKF makes the same mistake this week. Hop on them early (even with reduced payouts) if so, because they will correct pretty quickly when they see the money rolling in.

    Edit: Of course check the forecast first…Sunday got a little dicey and maybe the winds will be up this week.

  • bigez952

    @Shaver933 said...

    Does anyone know what changed last year? It looks like this was historically a tournament with the best scores in the -20’s. Last year the winning score was -11. Weather? Or has the course been altered?

    edit: Looks like they played in a windstorm last year. Will be interesting to see if MKF messes up their lines by looking at just last year’s data…

    Last year it was super windy the first two days which really knocked down the scores. I remember this week well as it was free money on MKF the first two rounds as they had numbers posted based on historically scores and with the wind betting all the overs for strokes were easy wins.

  • naj1073

    time to roster wesley bryan once again

  • ifthethunder

    DK pricing is out. Webb Simpson 11,100, Harris English 10,800, etc.
    ~

  • lexmarke238

    @Money0227 said...

    Why are a lot of the bigger names not in the field (since they were already in Hawaii). Do they get tired of being in one of the most beautiful places in the world?

    .

  • mogan11

    @ifthethunder said...

    DK pricing is out. Webb Simpson 11,100, Harris English 10,800, etc.
    ~

    give me all the hideki at 10.2

  • Shaver933

    Full-tournament MKF lines are up – Birdies and FP lines seem a little low, but probably not worth it since there’s a cut

  • Money0227

    @Shaver933 said...

    Full-tournament MKF lines are up – Birdies and FP lines seem a little low, but probably not worth it since there’s a cut

    Not placing bets right now, but I would probably go under 108.5. As a reference point…Reed finished T13 two years ago with 102. CH3 finished T8 with 107. Leishman at T3 had 112.

    With a cut, if there’s decent wind in the forecast…I’ll hit the unders, but won’t bet heavily.

  • Kingspark35

    Normal (ish) service is resumed.

    141 to t65 and ties for the cut. A rainbow CH.

    Guys unknown to me.

  • RudyPujols

    An oddity from each of the past two years at Sony stands out to me:
    2019 – Chez (I was heavy) holes out from 100+ yards three times in one round (unheard of); and
    2020 – Cam Smith started out Thursday with bogey/triple (+4 thru 2 holes) and had the forum on full tilt, then pulled a reverse Keegan of sorts and won the whole f’n thing

  • BrianVT

    Predictive model sucks this week.

  • XxHeisenbergxX

    @BrianVT said...

    Oh yea, I guess it still is a birdiefest. I hadn’t looked at all scores yet when I made my first comment; just saw the -11 at the top of page. I wonder if we should just ignore last year’s results when doing our own analysis?

    last year from what I have read wind and rain..I am throwing last year completely out.

  • timusbr

    Happy Monday everyone, Tuesday for the eastern shores.

    Happy Meal Cup standings after TOC
    https://1drv.ms/x/s!AiKGps2bl5SRoEWIW-lpTqLL83Ei

    5 contests 121 entries (50+20+20+20+11) giving us 112 Unique entry names
    11 new players to this years version of the Happy Meal Cup……2 are interesting returners because they were forum favorites in the past.

    So far this year we have 195 contestants that have played at least 1 week
    53 have played all 13 weeks

  • mh8235

    Weird to see Cameron Davis priced at $7,200. Sure to be high owned, fool’s gold this week?

  • timusbr

    Doing my recap of last week, I thought it was interesting that only 4 guys made the A4RU70 bonus.

    I managed to pull out min cashes on my 13 LU’s had JT, DJ heading my LU’s but the weekend of Im (100%) and Niemann (90%) saved my bacon. I also had shares of myMaMa Yama and Mac Hughes (whats up with his putting, We are coming into the part of the schedule where he has paid off, but I am skeptical now).

    Anyone want to comment on English? Lately he has been playing with the best. Is he elite? what would you need to see to think of him as elite. the limited time i caught him last week the announcers were talking Ryder Cup and a must to have on the team.

  • timusbr

    @RudyPujols said...

    An oddity from each of the past two years at Sony stands out to me:
    2019 – Chez (I was heavy) holes out from 100+ yards three times in one round (unheard of); and
    2020 – Cam Smith started out Thursday with bogey/triple (+4 thru 2 holes) and had the forum on full tilt, then pulled a reverse Keegan of sorts and won the whole f’n thing

    You can’t make that shit up

  • mh8235

    @timusbr said...

    Anyone want to comment on English? Lately he has been playing with the best. Is he elite? what would you need to see to think of him as elite. the limited time i caught him last week the announcers were talking Ryder Cup and a must to have on the team.

    English has been so impressive, and it’s hard not to consider him at least 2nd tier elite at this point. The stage never seems to be too big for him, and he’s clearly clicking on all cylinders. I love his calm demeanor, the way he plays within himself, and doesn’t panic regardless of the situation. I think he’ll continue his torrid 20’-21’ campaign, and make a real push to be included on the Ryder Cup roster by year’s end.

    Johnson, Thomas, DeChambeau, Schauffele, Morikawa, and Koepka are probably the only American golfers I consider definitively better than English right now. I have him firmly on the same tier as Simpson, Cantlay, Reed, Berger, Wolff, and Finau.

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