PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: January 14-17

    Where: Honolulu, Hawaii

    Course: Waialae Country Club | A Par 70 playing at 7044 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Cameron Smith at -11

    Last Year’s Cut: +1

    Coverage: Golf Channel

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Cup 2021 Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • eruthruff

    @BrianVT said...

    Predictive model sucks this week.

    Clarification request

  • BrianVT

    @eruthruff said...

    Clarification request

    Two metrics I grade my models on are R-squared and RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error). Both grade how well the predicted points fit to the actual points (in the historical data), but do it a little differently.

    Easiest to understand is RMSE. It’s basically how far away from the actuals, on average, are your predictions, and I’m only getting as good as like 38 this week (lower the better). As a comparison, if you were to just use the mean finishing position to predict where all golfers would finish (which is like saying everyone is going to finish 72nd; I include MCs in my data), your average error from that guess would be about 41. So, I’ve only improved by 3 spots from not even using a model, and that sucks.

    And my R-squared is like .15, which also sucks.

    However, I haven’t removed the years that weren’t like the others, like 2020 that we talked about, so I’m going to start over today. If the models continue to suck, then that means I have to go heavy on Recent Form instead of stats, which means there’s not really any edge, and also means random luck will probably be the largest edge this week.

  • ifthethunder

    @BrianVT said...

    and also means random luck will probably be the largest edge this week.

    I like the sound of that!
    ~

  • BrianVT

    Interesting how the average score was pretty much improving each year until last year blew it up. I also include the M/Cs by just doubling their strokes from 2 rounds.

    Year Average of Score
    2009 283.22
    2010 282.88
    2011 280.60
    2012 281.47
    2013 278.26
    2014 279.79
    2015 278.18
    2016 276.38
    2017 275.46
    2018 278.23
    2019 278.39
    2020 285.30

    I wonder if scores were improving because of equipment, balls, strength, etc. J/K – don’t need to start last week’s discussion again.

  • RudyPujols

    @BrianVT said...

    Interesting how the average score was pretty much improving each year until last year blew it up. I also include the M/Cs by just doubling their strokes from 2 rounds.

    Year Average of Score
    2009 283.22
    2010 282.88
    2011 280.60
    2012 281.47
    2013 278.26
    2014 279.79
    2015 278.18
    2016 276.38
    2017 275.46
    2018 278.23
    2019 278.39
    2020 285.30

    I wonder if scores were improving because of equipment, balls, strength, etc. J/K – don’t need to start last week’s discussion again.

    Fed Ex rules underwent some pretty major changes in 2013 that elevated the importance of racking up fed ex points (points the determinant of card status rather than $, e.g.). Maybe more of the talent that wasn’t TOC-qualified started to justify the trip (when the prior analysis would justify skipping the long and expensive trip for a relatively small purse and just focus on California/Desert swing), seems like the biggest improvement period was 2013-2017…or maybe the winds just cooperated.

  • BrianVT

    @RudyPujols said...

    Fed Ex rules underwent some pretty major changes in 2013 that elevated the importance of racking up fed ex points (points the determinant of card status rather than $, e.g.). Maybe more of the talent that wasn’t TOC-qualified started to justify the trip (when the prior analysis would justify skipping the long and expensive trip for a relatively small purse and just focus on California/Desert swing), seems like the biggest improvement period was 2013-2017…or maybe the winds just cooperated.

    Yep, strength of field definitely sways things. I’ve been wanting to add something like that to my dataset for a long time, but haven’t found the time to get to it.

  • BrianVT

    Hmm, Nasty Yams actually has great CH here, but nobody is going to play him because of RF. Might have to hold my nose…

    Edit: Actually, I take this back – I was looking at the wrong week for CH.

  • mogan11

    This is my first year in a OAD pool. Any tips/strategy on how to pick for this event? Smaller than normal purse + weak field would lead me to assume picking a favorite “punt” might be the best option this week, but it also leads me to think the best players should be almost guaranteed $ due to weak field.

  • lfn1992

    With my bankroll replenished thanks to a ridiculous wild-card weekend, let’s see how many MME entries I’ll lose in golf this week!

  • hautalak

    @lfn1992 said...

    With my bankroll replenished thanks to a ridiculous wild-card weekend, let’s see how many MME entries I’ll lose in golf this week!

    I’ll piggyback you there… but my “funds” are going to NHL instead lol

  • Ricolasvegas

    @mogan11 said...

    This is my first year in a OAD pool. Any tips/strategy on how to pick for this event? Smaller than normal purse + weak field would lead me to assume picking a favorite “punt” might be the best option this week, but it also leads me to think the best players should be almost guaranteed $ due to weak field.

    Advise ive taken from others on OAD… basically dont play anyone thats not in the top 50 in the world… Unless your trying to hit a lone wolf… or in desperation mode. And I always pay attention to the Vegas odds to help me make my choice.

    I wont be playing guys who can acutally win majors this week like Webb and Morikawa. I havent looked at it too much yet, but early thoughts are maybe, Berger, Palmer, Kisner.

  • jdtrey

    @BrianVT said...

    Hmm, Nasty Yams actually has great CH here, but nobody is going to play him because of RF. Might have to hold my nose…

    Edit: Actually, I take this back – I was looking at the wrong week for CH.

    Saw he was on a few of the MKF bets and closed that tab real quick!

    Trying the cascading core this week .. pick 6 for the core and swap out 3 of each and 4 of one (or 4 of two if I throw the core lineup in another tourney?) for others in somewhat the same range is about the simplest explanation, correct?

  • BrianVT

    @jdtrey said...

    Saw he was on a few of the MKF bets and closed that tab real quick!

    Trying the cascading core this week .. pick 6 for the core and swap out 3 of each and 4 of one (or 4 of two if I throw the core lineup in another tourney?) for others in somewhat the same range is about the simplest explanation, correct?

    Yea, you’re basically hoping you picked the right 6, but giving yourself the benefit of the doubt that 1/6 might be wrong (or a missed cut), so swap each one for guys close by in salary for some of that randomness or luck component that is sometimes needed.

    Not sure I understood the “or 4 of two if I throw the core lineup in another tourney?”, though. If you’re maxing 20, and swap two 4x, then that means you have to swap one of the others 2x instead of 3x, right? Definitely put your core in another tourney also, but you still need the 20 lineup math to work out.

  • jdtrey

    @BrianVT said...

    Not sure I understood the “or 4 of two if I throw the core lineup in another tourney?”, though. If you’re maxing 20, and swap two 4x, then that means you have to swap one of the others 2x instead of 3x, right? Definitely put your core in another tourney also, but you still need the 20 lineup math to work out.

    What I meant by that was if I put the core lineup in a larger tourney then I wouldn’t need to put it in the quarter and use one of the 20 entries which would give me 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 4 swaps? The part I left out I guess was NOT using the core 6 as one of the lineups in the 20 max so I could get one extra “shot” at having the nuts. Obviously if my core 6 was in both tourneys and hit I’d win more.. make sense? or just stick with the usual way?

  • BrianVT

    @jdtrey said...

    Obviously if my core 6 was in both tourneys and hit I’d win more.. make sense? or just stick with the usual way?

    I gotcha. You’re letting your core hit something else big if it’s the nuts lineup. Yea, that works. I guess I’d make sure that other contest is also a 20 max or less, though. Throwing it in a 150 is changing your odds of it doing as well, since you were originally competing with people limited to 20 and now they can get lucky with 150 tries. If that makes sense.

  • lfn1992

    Temptation is GREAT already to play Mats as a contrarian play in MME

  • noddy

    @lfn1992 said...

    Temptation is GREAT already to play Mats as a contrarian play in MME

    No temptation here.

  • jdtrey

    @BrianVT said...

    I gotcha. You’re letting your core hit something else big if it’s the nuts lineup. Yea, that works. I guess I’d make sure that other contest is also a 20 max or less, though. Throwing it in a 150 is changing your odds of it doing as well, since you were originally competing with people limited to 20 and now they can get lucky with 150 tries. If that makes sense.

    Makes perfect sense and appreciate the clarification/info!

  • mogan11

    @Ricolasvegas said...

    Advise ive taken from others on OAD… basically dont play anyone thats not in the top 50 in the world… Unless your trying to hit a lone wolf… or in desperation mode. And I always pay attention to the Vegas odds to help me make my choice.

    I wont be playing guys who can acutally win majors this week like Webb and Morikawa. I havent looked at it too much yet, but early thoughts are maybe, Berger, Palmer, Kisner.

    Yeah, punt probably wasn’t the best terminology, as I was looking at guys in that range of Berger, Palmer, Kis… I was already thinking Palmer as I trust him now, but know I may not trust him later in the season.

    Thanks for the insight.

  • cplatt87

    @lfn1992 said...

    Temptation is GREAT already to play Mats as a contrarian play in MME

    I’m starting to think he might be everyone’s pick for a contrarian play and he’ll end up semi-popular.

  • qatman

    @Ricolasvegas said...

    Advise ive taken from others on OAD… basically dont play anyone thats not in the top 50 in the world… Unless your trying to hit a lone wolf… or in desperation mode. And I always pay attention to the Vegas odds to help me make my choice.

    I wont be playing guys who can acutally win majors this week like Webb and Morikawa. I havent looked at it too much yet, but early thoughts are maybe, Berger, Palmer, Kisner.

    Good advice. Basically you want to reserve your big dogs for the highest purses (Players, majors, WGC, a few others like API) and also make sure you are using only the top 40-50 (so you don’t end up with unused studs). I went through and set a list of ~10 guys that I want to save for high dollar events, then look at the next 25 or so for all of the non-opposite field events (oppo field have very small pools less than half regular fields).

    So this week I looked at a few guys that have low odds in that 11-35 range. The names I chose from were Berger, Kisner, Matsuyama, Smith, Ancer, Scott, and Niemann. I ended up going with Ancer.

  • BrianVT

    I’m playing Morikawa this week in OAD and will still have plenty left for majors.

  • BigRay

    Too early for KSDT?

  • Getty33

    Too early for Professor Takumi Kanaya? (not be confused with WWF legend Professor Taru Tanaka)

  • Shaver

    @jdtrey said...

    Saw he was on a few of the MKF bets and closed that tab real quick!

    Trying the cascading core this week .. pick 6 for the core and swap out 3 of each and 4 of one (or 4 of two if I throw the core lineup in another tourney?) for others in somewhat the same range is about the simplest explanation, correct?

    I might actually play a 5/5 or 4/4 for once if they toss Matsuyama into one!

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