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  • BPhillips44

    This is not sour grapes from someone who is a losing DFS player (which I am), but rather a statement of truth that over 90% of DFS players should listen too.

    Bottom Line: You aren’t going to be profitable, get out before the sharks eat you up and spit you out!

    I started playing DFS in 2015 and it was a blast. I loved crafting lineups and seeing how they stacked up against others. I won some, I lost some but it was fun. It wasn’t about the money for me (I played very low stakes) but rather the competition and the strategy, and if I won a little cash it was an added bonus.

    For about 2 years, I just focused on lineup building and doing the best I could each night, but as time went on, a winning lineup was harder and harder to come by. Why was this?

    To my fault, for those 2 years I never thought about the sharks as I was thinking they were only playing the high stakes, and us “for fun” players were in the $1 to $5 range. Boy was I wrong!!!!

    One night I decided to open up the rankings and started to learn the names and WOW, there they were sitting in my $5 10 man 50/50 just waiting to devour! This happened night after night, but being the competitor that I am, I thought I could match up with them if I just did a little more research

    So days and months went by with me playing against these sharks, and I would lose, and lose, and lose. Every once in a while I would place in a $5 10 man contest, but that was a rarity. But again, this wasn’t about the money it was that I just wanted to be competitive and win

    Finally, the lineup building and looking forward to the nights set of games became less and less fun as the days went by.

    On June 13th was my last day as a DFS player. I entered a $5 10 man 50/50 and was following my players periodically on my phone, as I was in a meeting. My guys were crushing it. Home runs, doubles, stolen bases, my pitcher was throwing a gem. I was thinking, boy I got one tonight! I came home, hopped on Fanduel and was in 6th place and was being lapped by 2 sharks in the Top 50 ranking. That was the night it finally dawned on me that this was a complete waste of time, and that I was never going to be able to win consistently.

    To be clear, I am not mad at the sharks at all. Hell, if you can win at the rate you are I would be entering every contest on the site too, regardless of entry fees.

    Unfortunately, you sucked all the fun out of DFS for me and I would urge those who just play for fun too take my advice, as a point will come that it won’t be fun for you either!

  • Yahoo302

    @moped_jones said...

    Sharks make better lineups b/c they play MANY lineups. There’s not a ton of skill involved when you are maxing out contests left and right. Obviously the more LU’s you play the better your odds at winning are. If they were truly great they’d only need to do one LU a night.

    There is a way to verify whether this is true:(you won’t do it because you know you’re wrong, but either way…)

    For $37 a slate (0.25*150), you can enter 150 lineups in a contest. That’s the maximum amount allowed for any player including “sharks”.
    If there’s no skill involved, let’s see how you do! Lemme know.

  • tamparoor

    Perfect example last night is why I’m pretty much done with dfs I only play mma won all 6 of my fights last night and barely won pennies on dk but had my brother in Vegas parlay the same fighters and won great

  • theIrrigator

  • SkateFiend

    @Yahoo302 said...

    There is a way to verify whether this is true:(you won’t do it because you know you’re wrong, but either way…)

    For $37 a slate (0.25*150), you can enter 150 lineups in a contest. That’s the maximum amount allowed for any player including “sharks”.
    If there’s no skill involved, let’s see how you do! Lemme know.

    What would that prove (especially on just a single slate), though? I’ve read on this very forum that pros actually lose money on their 150 plus lineups on most nights. Obviously the cream of the crop win out in the end because they have the resources and or bankroll that most casual players don’t have. I’m thinking you need to have some sort of a system to manage that many lineups and make money across 2,3 sites.

    I also often hear that some pros collaborate with others to skirt entry limits, further cover the bases, and mitigate the risks and costs. I don’t know if that is true, but I do see a lot of identical lineups in cash games.

    The sharks are clearly skilled, but some of that involves playing a lot of lineups. Like Moped said, if these players operated on pure skill, they would only enter a few lineups. And that means less money for DFS sites.

    I only play quarter games at DK. If my inactive LU is min cashing and the 3% owned Manuel Margot hits a 2 run homerun in the final game of the slate, I have to legit worry about dropping out of cash line. What’s 3% of 20k? That’s a lot of lineups that can potentially drag me down. With or without sharks, casual players have razor thin margin for error in some of these huge contests. Even for quarter games, serious players probably need to play 50-100 lineups to be viable.

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    I might be in the minority, but I love the fact that it takes a lot of hard work (research), sound bankroll management, and a little luck to cash consistently and maintain a positive ROI. I’m a casual small-stakes player who has had my share of losing streaks, but I’ve managed to generate a 20-40% ROI over the 3 years or so that I’ve been playing DFS. I think it would be just as boring if anyone could make money without too much of a challenge. Nothing gets my adrenaline flowing like a late-night touchdown or home run to put my LU over the cash line.

    Bottom line: It’s difficult but certainly NOT impossible for amateur players like myself to profit in DFS

  • Bam79

    The “They win because they max enter” claim is soo old and tired..

    If you can’t even take the time to discover how silly that statement is, not being profitable is likely tied to your lack of willingness to research….anything.

  • BigRay

    I have been playing since 2013. There was a lot of money to be made 2014-2015. The advertising blitz was on and people with no clue were flocking to DFS. There were a few tout sites and data was harder to come by. These days the general public is turned off because of some of the controversies that hit hard in 2015 and all the legal action. The current playing field these days is much tougher, however the access to data and strategy is so much better.

    I believe that bank roll mgmt and tournament selection are the biggest areas that affect how succesful you can be. I only play $1 3 entry max tourneys and don’t break the bank but win enough to feel good about DFS.

    You aren’t gonna win everyday but if you manage you bank and have a consistent strategy you can still compete daily as every once in awhile you might hit something worthwhile

  • sef610

    Hey Guys,

    I almost never post, but do browse. But decided after reading lots of the comments in here to post. This notion that MME is the only way to be successful is total bs. I see people saying there is no way to win the big GPP’s without having tons of lineups. That is just not true, I do not mass multi enter and I have had plenty of chances to take down GPP’s. It comes down to a couple things, be dedicated to your process. When you’re on a losing streak (which happens to everyone I might add) don’t switch up the process. Also the other error people make is trying to play every angle when multi entering a tournament. Even with 150 lineups the “sharks” can’t even come close to covering all the combinations. Back in the day (before I was playing), they allowed 500 entries and people would have a much higher chance of covering all of the better combos. Be selective in the players you play based off your research, which means they’ll be good plays on every single slate that you’re unable to play. When the players you picked have good nights, you’ll have a much better chance at having the right combo of them, giving you a better chance to be at the top of the leaderboard. I also saw where someone was upset, bc they picked 6 winners in MMA and barely cashed. With MMA, Golf, Nascar, Tennis (any of the pick 6 player sports) not only will you have to pick the 6 winners but they’ll have to highest scoring 6 winners to be at the top of the leaderboard. I finished 6th in the $8, and 2nd in the Q this past weekend and it was only my 3rd weekend ever playing UFC. I do follow it, but haven’t played it until recently. I have managed to be profitable at playing GPP’s only and I’m certainly no rocket scientist.

  • Sixers610

    It’s all about BR management and choosing the right contest. Being in the top 1% of a 20,000 entry GPP and only getting a 4x is not the path to success.

    Smaller contests, no more than 2-3% of your bankroll in GPP’s are my rules of thumb.

    Overall, had more success on DK than FD.. but the profit is heavily skewed towards a few top 3 place wins.

    I highly recommend downloading your contest results and uploading them into a bankroll tracker. I found that, by far, my best ROI on FD is within those 100 man leagues.. it’s not even close.

    on DK, I’ve done well in tournaments, but once again, skewed by a few large wins.

    If you’re going GPP, forget about that dream of winning $10,000 off $4. Focus on smaller ROI for top prize, but better chance of getting there.

    Think about the $1 gpp contest on FD for MLB, to get a 25x return on your money, you have to place 12th out of 5900. Top .2%. to get that same return in a league, you have to finish 1st out of 100, or top 1%. Rake is also lower in those leagues, which helps.

  • BerkeleyBoss

    @hendry said...

    no one ever thinks that the reason they are a losing player is because of the games they select and the lineups they submit. theres always some other reason.

    I’m sure OP understands that the difference between him and the sharks is that they build better lineups. He acknowledges that he’s doing his best each night and that he wanted to see how he could match up with them.

    It’s absurd and a bit of a pipe-dream mentality to think that if you just study a bit more or put more time into researching that you’ll all of a sudden have a great win rate. Some people’s minds are just built better for DFS than others. Simple as that.

  • gaelicgirl

    @BerkeleyBoss said...

    Some people’s minds are just built better for DFS than others. Simple as that.

    This is the most profound truth I’ve never seen mentioned before in this type of thread. Bravo, sir!

  • d735123

    @tamparoor said...

    Perfect example last night is why I’m pretty much done with dfs I only play mma won all 6 of my fights last night and barely won pennies on dk but had my brother in Vegas parlay the same fighters and won great

    Yup. I won 6/6 matches in the tennis today and am looking at a 3-1 return. A parlay would return about 40-1.

  • thenatural91

    I’m a high school baseball coach/teacher and love dfs as my hobby. If I didnt win would play anyways but I have been profitable and my best friend has made substantial profits. We simply grind and share ideas..I have wins in gpps and several top 5 finishes.My advice isnt worth a whole lot probably but here it is. Listen to podcasts..look at the articles but do not play those on most lineups.. Use common sense to hand build lineups. If you build them by hand with knowledge you have of baseball and what baseball is about you can win.. Sure you will lose also but I have never won using optimal generated lineups. As far as lineup building take chances and cheap pitchers and never the Padres:)

  • moped_jones

    @TnRiddles said...

    This is one of the dumbest statements ever

    How so? You are high if you think they are going out there with one bullet and winning all this cash.

  • moped_jones

    @Yahoo302 said...

    There is a way to verify whether this is true:(you won’t do it because you know you’re wrong, but either way…)

    For $37 a slate (0.25*150), you can enter 150 lineups in a contest. That’s the maximum amount allowed for any player including “sharks”.
    If there’s no skill involved, let’s see how you do! Lemme know.

    I didn’t say there was “no skill involved”. I said there was less skill involved. A person playing 150 LU’s can take more GPP risks than someone playing 6 LU’s. The only skill there was the person had more money to start with. Not really a skill if you ask me. You are twisting my words in order to make your point sound better. The fact that you would even have to do that tells me you are insecure about your point.

    The bottom line is the more LU’s you “heavily research and put out there” the better your chances of winning. The fact that this is even being argued against is laughable. Also, most people don’t play 150 LU’s a night, so again, your logic is severely flawed.

    Anyway, feel free to verify if what I say is true since it like “totally proves I am wrong”.

  • moped_jones

    @Olhausen said...

    So the max entry players only win because of 150 lineup’s argument is just not a good one.

    Most people aren’t max entry players though. So yeah, there’s that.

    “Does it give good players an edge when they enter 150 lineup’s compared to the same skill of player who does 10 lineup’s? Sure”

    Cool. You agree. Why even write the rest?

  • moped_jones

    @sfox35757 said...

    No it’s not it’s actually true.

    I like how he just said it was dumb but didn’t explain why……….you know like an intelligent person would.

    How can anyone be arguing that making more LU’s gives you a better shot at winning? Granted you can’t just randomly throw out 150 garbage LUs. You have to do your research but you can take a few more GPP risks if you have 150 bullets as opposed to like 6, am I right?

  • moped_jones

    @SkateFiend said...

    The sharks are clearly skilled, but some of that involves playing a lot of lineups. Like Moped said, if these players operated on pure skill, they would only enter a few lineups. And that means less money for DFS sites.

    Exactly.

  • BerkeleyBoss

    @moped_jones said...

    I like how he just said it was dumb but didn’t explain why……….you know like an intelligent person would.

    How can anyone be arguing that making more LU’s gives you a better shot at winning? Granted you can’t just randomly throw out 150 garbage LUs. You have to do your research but you can take a few more GPP risks if you have 150 bullets as opposed to like 6, am I right?

    It’s much easier to generate 1 or 2 profitable lineups. Sure, 150 gives you a better chance at getting 1st place, but it makes it harder to be a profitable player. I have no doubt about that. I believe I am a profitable NBA gpp player up to about 20-40 lineups. Much more than that and I probably make a bunch of poor lineups trying to hard to cover different angles.

    Imagine if, as a 1 lineup a night player, you were in some kind of deal where a mass enter pro gave you his 150th best projected lineup each night. Would you even expect to be profitable? Seems like the main benefit to extra lineups is reduced variance.

  • SydneyTyler

    • 563

      RG Overall Ranking

    If you know some basic statistics & real a couple books on predictive analytics you can turn a profit. Assuming you know some basic programming or even advanced excel. Even I’m profitable over 2 years.

  • Becks

    OP is correct, not an opinion. The fact is the whole thing boils down to logic. A shark has a larger bankroll, therefore more entries. So they can start off with a larger pool of players. Most assholes like to just say that people aren’t winning because their lineups suck. Truth is, I see the winners have a dud in their lineup all the time. You can utilize every resource out there and come up with literally hundreds of lineups that consist of players that will likely do well on a particular day. The real problem is most folks can’t afford to submit hundreds of lineups. A shark is going to take a pool of dozens of players and then enter all of those players in tons of lineups to cover most combinations. A regular player might very well have those same dozens of players but has to pare down the lineups and omit some players. So a regular player may submit 5-10 lineups, maybe, while a shark will submit 100-150. Do the math, the 150 to 10 means that the shark will cover more combinations of a lineup with the SAME players and this will have a higher chance and probability of winning.

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