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  • draftcheat

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    “A stranger is being shown around a village that he has just become part of. He is shown a well and his guide says “on any day except Tuesday, you can shout any question down that well and you’ll be told the answer.” The man seems pretty impressed, and so he shouts down, “Why not on Tuesday?” A voice from in the well shouts back, “Because on Tuesday, it’s your day in the well.”

    What’s up everybody! I’m here to answer your questions about DFS, life, and how to be a troll on twitter (@draftcheat).

    I’m 29 (yikes!), and have been playing DFS full time for over a year now. I quit my job working in marketing a bit over a year ago, and am loving life as a DFS pro. Reading about and watching sports, and most of all digging as deep into sports stats and analytics as I can is a dream come true. I’ve been obsessed with sports my entire life. I played soccer, baseball, and kicked for the football team (insert kicker joke here) in high school, and played college soccer as well. Now, instead of playing myself, I watch others play. It’s a decent trade-off.

    I come from a poker background which I did professionally in college and for five years afterword until Black Friday (some of you might recognize the screen name McShove, I suppose), then had to work a real job for a couple of years before finding DFS.

    I’ll try to answer anything and everything thrown my way, though you’ll have to excuse me if I can’t get to your question before lineups lock on any given day. I got grindin’ to do.

    In before, “when are you eating the hat?”

    Fire away.

  • Rockythunder

    DC, I’m enjoying this interaction. Last night I posted this question in the forums and had very little response yesterday, so Cameron had a great idea to pose this question to you. Any feedback would be appreciated and valued. Thank you.

    I wanted to post this to get an idea how high stakes grinders make GPP decisions when they first change money levels? I am strictly a micro grinder who recently won an entry to a big satellite tourney. All day I wanted to go with Alex Colome as an off the board GPP play, thinking that most of the people in this small tourney wouldn’t give him a second thought. Right around lock time, I went back to the board and took Cole even though I figured he would be highly owned. I did use a few value plays to get him in instead of the bigger bats I originally had. When you go up in stakes like this is it hard to make off the wall choices, or is just getting used to the idea of being contrarian at the right times. Any thoughts and ideas are appreciated. Thank you.

  • draftcheat

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x5

      2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @Rockythunder said...

    DC, I’m enjoying this interaction. Last night I posted this question in the forums and had very little response yesterday, so Cameron had a great idea to pose this question to you. Any feedback would be appreciated and valued. Thank you.

    I wanted to post this to get an idea how high stakes grinders make GPP decisions when they first change money levels? I am strictly a micro grinder who recently won an entry to a big satellite tourney. All day I wanted to go with Alex Colome as an off the board GPP play, thinking that most of the people in this small tourney wouldn’t give him a second thought. Right around lock time, I went back to the board and took Cole even though I figured he would be highly owned. I did use a few value plays to get him in instead of the bigger bats I originally had. When you go up in stakes like this is it hard to make off the wall choices, or is just getting used to the idea of being contrarian at the right times. Any thoughts and ideas are appreciated. Thank you.

    One tricky thing about GPP play is that predicting ownership percentages can be difficult. There is simply no way to know for sure who will be the most heavily owned, and just how heavily owned those players will be. For that reason, a lot of great players don’t worry too much about ownership percentages and simply try to make the best team possible. I don’t personally believe that’s the optimal way to approach GPPs, but others may disagree.

    In GPP play, you can’t be afraid to lose. If you think you’ve found a player that has legitimate upside that nobody is writing about, talking about on podcasts or video shows, and is not a big name, you can be pretty sure that player will have a very low ownership percentage. Play that guy.

    One big question I always try to ask myself on any day of DFS play is, “What knowledge do I have about today’s players/slate that nobody else has?” If you can’t answer that question, how can you expect to best everyone else is what is ultimately a zero (or negative) sum game?

  • MrFantasy

    What site did you start playing DFS on? I too was/am a professional poker and got my start on Draftday after the Cardrunners guys started that up.

  • yanksfan1

    What types of information do you look for when researching MLB on fangraphs?

  • 8MileAllstars

    @draftcheat said...

    In GPP play, you can’t be afraid to lose. If you think you’ve found a player that has legitimate upside that nobody is writing about, talking about on podcasts or video shows, and is not a big name, you can be pretty sure that player will have a very low ownership percentage. Play that guy.

    Great advice and way too many players, especially new players, are afraid to play guys that the “experts” aren’t talking about.

  • emac

    Your glory daze t-shirt inspired the following questions:

    1 – How many times have you seen Def Leppard live?
    2 – Favorite song?
    3 – Pyromania or Hysteria? (albums, not state of mind)

  • dudeoflife

    • 55

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #41

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • x3

      2015 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    Ha, can’t belive you are McShove. I wonder what derogatory notes I had listed under your avatar.

    A couple questions.

    On a podcast, I heard you mention something about Billy Hamilton and not stealing many bases when on 1st base against particular pitcher. Where do you get that data?

    I feel like you have to be much more conservative in DFS compared to poker regarding bankroll management since sometimes you feel diversified when you put 50 lineups in $27 big field GPP but can get smoked very easily. Do you agree?

    How many different head to head lineups do you usually put out? Do you ever just focus on cash/50/50’s when on a significant downswing?

    Thanks,

    dude

  • afkshower

    what color is the dress

  • plferren

    DC, is volume of play the ticket to success? I frequently play against top grinders and others who have had proven success in low $ H2H’s (mostly to see their lineups) and seem to win more times than not…it seems as if those who have had the most success play an insane amount of contests, specifically H2H. Obviously high volume will take out the fishies and their shitty lineups, but are there more fish than sharks?

  • jlove18

    as a pro, are you concerned about rake being so high?

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    DC,

    How long would it take you to paint a long picket fence?

  • draftcheat

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x5

      2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @MrFantasy said...

    What site did you start playing DFS on? I too was/am a professional poker and got my start on Draftday after the Cardrunners guys started that up.

    I believe Draft Day was the first site I played, for the same reason as you. I knew/knew of some of the CardRunners guys.

  • draftcheat

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x5

      2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @yanksfan1 said...

    What types of information do you look for when researching MLB on fangraphs?

    Everything, but one thing I’ve really been utilizing more this season is pitcher game logs, which I then like to sort by plate discipline and velocity/movement stats with the PitchF/x tool.

  • draftcheat

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x5

      2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @emac said...

    Your glory daze t-shirt inspired the following questions:

    1 – How many times have you seen Def Leppard live?
    2 – Favorite song?
    3 – Pyromania or Hysteria? (albums, not state of mind)

    I’ve seen them twice! Hysteria is both my favorite song and album.

  • draftcheat

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x5

      2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @dudeoflife said...

    Ha, can’t belive you are McShove. I wonder what derogatory notes I had listed under your avatar.

    A couple questions.

    On a podcast, I heard you mention something about Billy Hamilton and not stealing many bases when on 1st base against particular pitcher. Where do you get that data?

    I feel like you have to be much more conservative in DFS compared to poker regarding bankroll management since sometimes you feel diversified when you put 50 lineups in $27 big field GPP but can get smoked very easily. Do you agree?

    How many different head to head lineups do you usually put out? Do you ever just focus on cash/50/50’s when on a significant downswing?

    Thanks,

    dude

    There is nowhere that I know of to get that very specific data, but you can look up how many steals a player has vs. a particular pitcher, and then see how they’ve reached base against the pitcher, and extrapolate from there.

    Bankroll management is obviously integral to success in both poker and DFS. It is definitely possible to run hot/cold for huge periods of time, longer than our brains can really comprehend. I remember some crazy studies/simulations of tournament poker where a true 10% ROI player could conceivably lose for tens of thousands of tourneys as part of random variance. It’s crazy to think about, but the following is absolutely true: Some DFS player has been the most unlucky of anyone in the entire space, and someone has also been the luckiest. Everyone else falls somewhere along the spectrum.

  • draftcheat

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x5

      2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @afkshower said...

    what color is the dress

    Black and Blue. I may be dumb, but I’m not crazy.

  • draftcheat

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x5

      2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @plferren said...

    DC, is volume of play the ticket to success? I frequently play against top grinders and others who have had proven success in low $ H2H’s (mostly to see their lineups) and seem to win more times than not…it seems as if those who have had the most success play an insane amount of contests, specifically H2H. Obviously high volume will take out the fishies and their shitty lineups, but are there more fish than sharks?

    Not quite sure how to answer this one…but I’ll say this: there is a huge advantage in DFS (and most other aspects in life) to being “on top”. We’ve seen different player at times try and dominate the FanDuel lobby, where they don’t have matchup blocker. The idea behind this, of course, is that if nobody can post games, you get all the high stakes whale action, where the real money is made in this industry. Condia, for example, apparently thought buying up all the action and that breaking even or losing a bit to the rake against other high stakes pros would be more than offset by having a monopoly on high stakes whale action. Didn’t work out so well, though.

  • draftcheat

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x5

      2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @jlove18 said...

    as a pro, are you concerned about rake being so high?

    Of course. This has been an alarming trend, and honestly I thought we’d have seen the rake start to come down or real reward/VIP systems start to be implemented at the big sites by now. But they won’t do that until they have to in order to retain customers, and obviously both FanDuel and DraftKings are killing it right now. But we’ve seen rake rise at both sites over the past couple of years, and while it can get old to have people harping on that over and over, it needs to be pointed out. It’s a problem.

  • draftcheat

    • x3

      2016 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • x5

      2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @bhdevault said...

    DC,

    How long would it take you to paint a long picket fence?

    If there are DFS contest going on, I’ll probably never even get started because I’ll keep checking my scores/following the action. Just ask my girlfriend.

  • BigBri594

    Congrats on being able to do this full time. You truly are living my dream.

    My question is are you concerned about the future? I think that 5 years from now it is very possible that this game becomes unbeatable due to not enough new players coming in, high rake, lineup sharing, and too much information being available. If I were a pro, my concern would be that the success would run out and I would have to re enter the work force and explain to the guy interviewing me that I spent the last 10 years of my life playing fantasy sports for a living.

    Congrats again on your success and thanks for the excellent analysis you provide.

  • Digglesauce

    @draftcheat said...

    I’m pretty old-school when it comes to my baseball research. It’s my best sport, and it’s the only one where I don’t read anyone else’s research, listen to any podcasts/videos, or even look at Vegas lines.

    This is great. I feel like the big time MLB DFS pros really buck trends because they are going off their own research and gut and it is centered around pitching. That is where all the time is spent. Is this pretty accurate?

    I am not saying other viewpoints should be dismissed..but I have noticed a recent cold streak because I have gotten more into looking at other people’s opinions rather than just gutting it with my own research. When I have done that, I have been very successful. Good advice I think.

  • IronMonkey415

    Will I ever win creating a lineup that I copy exactly from rotowire Optimizer program?

    This is how I’ve been playing for the past month and have lost every single contest. The luck has to change right?

  • kcchiefsfan73

    What is your opinion on multi-entry GPP’s, specifically in MLB? With a select few each buying up 5-10% of the GPP’s on a daily basis and playing stacks. Has MLB GPP’s essentially become a mindless dart game for those with deep bankrolls?

  • Z06Fanatic

    whats your ROI in GPPs and what do you think is a reasonable ROI for a top player

  • ceaglemaverick

    Thanks for doing this. I appreciate it.

    How many hours/slate do you feel are necessary to be successful in MLB and NFL specifically?

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