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  • cedric19

    Before I get a bunch of the usual replies that amount to “Adapt”, or “Make better lineups”, think about what I’m saying

    I have only been playing DFS for a couple of years now and have made in the low 5 figures playing the major sports

    Something I and others are noticing more and more is the prevalence of pay for lineup or team play in single entry cash games. Forget whether this is an unfair way to circumvent the single entry rule, I think it poses a much bigger problem for profitable players and the DFS sites.

    I believe for every contest there is a statistically optimal lineup. Better players build lineups closer to the optimal lineup, while the casual player may get lucky throwing darts but averages well below optimal.

    The one and only thing that makes this activity profitable for some is the presence of casual players. When casual players start buying professional lineups they of course aren’t casual players anymore. If the casual player doesn’t know about or want to pay for a professional lineup, they still see tourneys filled with blocks of syndicate play and/or cannot possibly compete, removing themselves from the player pool.

    Yes, if the overall skill level of the player pool has increased, maybe you can adapt and build even better lineups than those pay to play lineups. The optimal lineup hasn’t changed though, so now you and these others are battling over an ever shrinking difference between player lineups and the optimal lineup. The inevitable result over time is the best players losing the least after rake. Once again, yes you can adapt and improve, but the ability to improve is limited to an optimal lineup

    It would be easy for these big sites to add programming which would limit the same lineup to say 5% of the total lineups, just like you can’t stack one game or more than 4 players from a team. This percentage could even be adjusted according to the amount of games. When you submit or edit your lineup and the limit has already been reached, alter it or cancel entry. If it’s too late to cancel people will learn really quickly it’s not worth gambling a bunch of other players aren’t using the same lineup you bought.

    If something isn’t done I believe all the casual players will quit and then all the volume players will see there is no profit any longer. The whole DFS world will become known as an unbeatable scam and play on the sites will dry up.

  • ssbledsoe

    • 2015 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @cedric19 said...

    Even if you are better than those lineups, they aren’t bad enough for you to beat the rake in the long run

    Can you expand upon this quote?
    Until there is a 3rd party monitoring system that can prove the lineups being sold by an entity will be +EV (beat the rake), then I won’t worry. Ideally, it would document the sold lineups in the manner that sports handicappers/touts are monitored. There’s a free business idea for anyone ambitious enough..

  • cedric19

    @glennantz said...

    BOTTOM LINE
    If there is a lot of money to be made, people will try and find an easy way to get it. With 5K to 20K first place available on any given day they will find a way to try and get it. The industry will have to deal with it at some point in time. I am sure they have thought about this in the past.

    This isn’t about multi entry GPP where multi entries are well within the rules, this is about single entry tourneys and cash games that have a large amount of duplicate lineups from different usernames.

  • cedric19

    @ssbledsoe said...

    Can you expand upon this quote?
    Until there is a 3rd party monitoring system that can prove the lineups being sold by an entity will be +EV (beat the rake), then I won’t worry. Ideally, it would document the sold lineups in the manner that sports handicappers/touts are monitored. There’s a free business idea for anyone ambitious enough..

    I am not saying the sold lineups are +ev, they don’t need to be

    If in a 40 man 50/50, 39 sold lineups are 92% optimal (In The Long Run), and you’ve worked your butt off to be 95% optimal (ITLR), you still lose to the rake. The only reason we can win right now is because there are casual players in the lineup who are 70-80% optimal

  • Blinders

    I think the problem is short term thinking by the big sites. This is just one of a multitude of problems that the majors will not address because they are in a race to be the biggest. Everything they could do to address these problems would involve rejecting or limiting entries and that would lower their revenue in the short term. My hope is that when PokerStars enters the market, they are not going to be short term focused, because they do not need to be. I see them likely entering with a unique product that actually works out the eco-system problems DFS has by using a much longer term vision.

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