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  • DirtyDanS4

    Does anyone else remember on fd when 360 took down a gpp and 300 cashed you on 50/50s with no problem? The acquisitions and trades for the year have unleashed craziness. When were there ever so many studs with 60 70 80+ fps scored on the regular? When did mid tier guys dropping 50 become common? Multiple times the winning gpp has been over 400 this year on fd and i cant remember 1 time it cracked 400 last season… maybe close cuz i know i had a 380 something last year but this year over 400 multiple times already. Its like every level of player went up by 10 points… Your value plays used to be sufficient with 6x or 7x now its like you need 9x or 10x on your value plays. Then your low to mid tiers no more 25 to 35 fps, now we need 40 out of those guys, high tier guys hafta be around 50 and the big boys at 55+. I know, guys with huge ceilings they do go off but maybe this year it just so happens they go off on the same night now… You can construct a solid cash lineup with no punts, hit 320 and not min cash, its crazy. I am not complaining I at least min cash on most nights but does anyone else feel there is a new twist on core selection?

  • chronoxiong

    @wideopen23 said...

    Your chances of winning won’t change. You can value Westbrook at 20k and your odds won’t increase or decrease. Who cares if 400pts or 300pts win in a certain night? in the end, you need to combination of players at each position that net you the optimal points. Changing players contracts won’t make you a better DFS player, trust me.

    This used to be a game of skill. Now it’s a game of who can pick the wrong guy who will kill his lineup. You mean to tell me you’re not tired of seeing Westy, Harden, sometimes Unibrow and maybe Boogie being highly owned in the 40-60% range? Effectively pricing them at the price range they should be will make people think twice about rostering them. Westbrook and Harden wants to play a game of who can average a triple double for this season? Price them in the 13k range because I think that’s really their goal this year. I am not having fun being forced to put them in my lineup. Game of skill. What happened to that shit?

  • Yombo

    complaining about high scores is not really that legitimate even if people are scoring way more this year than in previous seasons.More impactful would be to reflect over where you missed or where you got a decent performance but maybe overpaid for a guy. That’s where real progress is going to come from. Missing might not mean the same to everyone, getting a complete dud is obvious, but maybe paying 6.6 for a guy like bradley who gets just about 30 is a less obvious miss when everyone around him went ballistic and a lot of value below him matched or exceeded him. Even then, it shouldn’t be 100% results based. Sometimes you just overlook guys at a position as you get focused on a few of the guys jumping out at you.

    i also do think this is the new norm, you wont be cashing really high in gpps with anyone suboptimal (obviously) and you’ll need guys to really hit their ceilings across the board probably to win. and the days of hitting cash with several duds is probably over as well, unless they are like 75% owned or something

    everyone wants credit for hitting 300+ but when that’s probably not even a median score than what does it matter that you put up 300+

    even with all that considered, it does come down to luck frequently. the skill level seems to have increased as well as randomness with all the value that opens up nightly

  • ajs1281

    I agree with the people saying it isn’t about the raw score since everyone is choosing from the same player pool. It is what it is, build better lineups etc. 300 isnt a magic number, 5x is not a magic number.

    I will say that FD has to get much better with updating soft pricing. I am not even concerned about the high end studs, I feel like they are all generally about where they should be based on production. It is the middle of the road guys and the entire Philly/Embiid situation. Someone like Barton, who is back getting good minutes and is only 5200 yesterday despite that being 6x his previous 2 games is an issue that needs to be looked at.. Embiid barely missed 5x yesterday but his floor is so high now that his minutes are changing that he should be manually adjusted up to at least a floor where a decision is being made. When 55% of a GPP field is on a center in an 11 game slate when you only get 1 on FD it means the pricing was bad, regardless of the results. Then you have the non-Embiid nights where the healthy big men for Philly are way under priced because of the numbers on the games he does play.

    It is the NBA, value is always going to open up late with scratches and we accept that as part of our playing. I think the high scoring by itself is not a problem but the amount of “free squares” this year seems to be even higher than usual. I think we are deep enough into the season that it is not unreasonable for the sites to look at the pricing. Nothing is going to change Klay going off last night when it came from well beyond expectations of his ceiling and keeping scores high that way. The number of highly owned players every night also seems higher than previous seasons which is going to drive scores up when they hit. The question on that is if they are poorly priced and obvious or if the game and research is just that much better. I think it is some combination of the two for sure.

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 390

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    I think guys like Westbrook, Harden, Boogie and Brow are all appropriately priced. Its the guys like Embiid on FD that need their prices updated. Also, this is like the 6th game in a row where Memphis is going to roll out 8-9 players and none of those salaries have been adjusted either.

    I’d much rather them thin out the value then price out the top guys. They are all at around 5x. I don’t mind having to pick Westbrook OR Harden OR Brow OR Boogie… but now I can fit 2-3 of them in my lineup pretty much every night. Fix the value guys. A great example tonight is Richaun Holmes. EVERY time Embiid or Okafor sits, he gets mid-20s minutes and puts up 25 FPs. He is minimum priced tonight. You have to play him. Pair him with Saric and they cost the same as Porzingis and will most definitely outscore him tonight.

  • billholler

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    A great example tonight is Richaun Holmes. EVERY time Embiid or Okafor sits, he gets mid-20s minutes and puts up 25 FPs. He is minimum priced tonight. You have to play him.

    He is not min priced tonight and has never scored 28+ fantasy points. If you have to average 45 points per player to have a chance at winning a GPP, 25 points from a punt play usually does you no good. Plus, it’s not like it’s a secret that he is cheap and starting. Also does you no good to have a punt play that 25% of all players also rostered.

  • ajs1281

    @billholler said...

    He is not min priced tonight and has never scored 28+ fantasy points. If you have to average 45 points per player to have a chance at winning a GPP, 25 points from a punt play usually does you no good. Plus, it’s not like it’s a secret that he is cheap and starting. Also does you no good to have a punt play that 25% of all players also rostered.

    I sort agree with you in that regard of winning a GPP and needing someone lower owned, but this thread is about the high scoring that is going on. He is min priced on FD tonight. He has a great shot at going for 7x value tonight. He will probably be 20%+ owned. If he comes in at 25 points tonight that does a big part of driving the scores way up. Will he be on the winning GPP lineup, possibly or possibly not. Tonight he is not as likely to have as big of an impact on roster construction because of the lack of 11k+ guys, but on a bigger slate these are the type of plays that are driving the scores higher. If he goes for his 25 and you fit in a stud that goes off for 70 you are at that 45 a person you need to win a GPP and well on your way to blowing past 300 for the night.

  • billholler

    @ajs1281 said...

    He is min priced on FD tonight. He has a great shot at going for 7x value tonight. He will probably be 20%+ owned. If he comes in at 25 points tonight that does a big part of driving the scores way up.

    Sorry, was only referring ot DK where he is $3600. We have discussed this numerous times here but I will rehash it, a min priced guy that gets you 25 points is fine if you are just looking to cash in a GPP. If you are trying to win, that player usually has to get you 35+ which Holmes has never done.

  • kbarnhill7523

    • 390

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    • Ranked #73

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    • 2018 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2017 FanDuel WFBBC Finalist

    @billholler said...

    He is not min priced tonight and has never scored 28+ fantasy points. If you have to average 45 points per player to have a chance at winning a GPP, 25 points from a punt play usually does you no good. Plus, it’s not like it’s a secret that he is cheap and starting. Also does you no good to have a punt play that 25% of all players also rostered.

    Haha ok.

    He is absolutely min-priced on FD. I didn’t say he scored 28+ points I said 25, which he has done the last 3 times Embiid sat.

    Also, if you use math… what is the average score of 2 players where one scores 65 and the other scores 25? OMG 45.

    Or what if you have 3 players and 2 score 55 and 1 scores 25… OMG 45 again.

    Good luck trying to roster 9 guys tonight on FD who ALL score over 45 points and everyone of them is a secret,

  • Clyde

    Like any free market, you have to play with the prices available…no extra credit for losing with a high score…I just try to figure out what the winners did that I missed when I lose…everyone is playing from the same player pool

  • billholler

    @kbarnhill7523 said...

    Haha ok.

    He is absolutely min-priced on FD. I didn’t say he scored 28+ points I said 25, which he has done the last 3 times Embiid sat.

    Also, if you use math… what is the average score of 2 players where one scores 65 and the other scores 25? OMG 45.

    Or what if you have 3 players and 2 score 55 and 1 scores 25… OMG 45 again.

    Good luck trying to roster 9 guys tonight on FD who ALL score over 45 points and everyone of them is a secret,

    Calm your tits. Already said I was referring to DK. Not saying he can’t put up 35+ tonight. Just said that he has never had 28 or more. AS for your example, let’s say you roster him with Whiteside. Only using Whiteside because he is the highest priced player tonight on DK. He and Whiteside get you 90 combined. You still have to have 6 other guys average 45. This is where people get too infatuated with a player hitting a certain value. A 3k player hitting 8x value is not as important as a 9k value stud hitting 5x value.

    BTW, on DK you can make a pretty salty LU with Holmes and the top 4 salaried guys. Just have to find one other scrub to get you 35 points.

  • CUTiger81

    The scoring on FD especially is getting out of control. The $5 double up line on FD was 320 yesterday, conversely it was 281 on DK. That’s a massive, massive difference for the same slate (yes, I know roster construction is different). DK just does a far better job pricing their players than FD does and FD doesn’t seem to care. Embiid’s price is unacceptable as is Sergio’s, Kilpatrick, Klay, LouWill, Hayward, etc… I built 4 LU last night on FD and missed cashing with all four at 322, 322, 302 and 278. Very frustrating night. Here’s my player pool I had in the lineup builder and how many times their salary these guys scored on FD:

    PG: Wall 5.1x, Lowry 4.9x, Irving 4.2x, Schroder 6.4x, Sergio 7.7x, Mack 5.5x, Grant 3.2x

    SG: DDR 5.6x, Wade 6.7x, Beal 4.9x, Batum 6.0x, Bradley 4.6x, Kilpatrick 6.1x, Klay 10.3x, LouWill 10x, Barton 7.7x, Galloway 8.3x

    SF: LBJ 6.1x, Butler 5.1x, Hayward 5.0x, Otto 5.1x, Crowder 4.3x, Carroll 3.1x, T. Williams 4.8x

    PF: AD 5.0x, Love 5.5x, Millsap 5.3x, Gibson 3.1x, Booker 5.9x, Kanter 2.9x, Anderson 3.7x, Morris 6.3x

    C: Horford 5.8x, Gasol 8.6x, Gobert 6.8x, Embiid 4.6x

    Used to be that you could miss on one, maybe even 2 guys and still at least min cash if your player pool was as strong as mine was last night but it’s not that way anymore with increased rate and other factors. I prefer FD but have been slowly moving more of my NBA play to DK where the roster construction and pricing are better. Still pissed off and the slate ended 15 hrs ago but I digress.

  • rainbowtroutman

    same thing tonite—320 to 325 to cash for the $2 and $5 DU’s——-getting unplayable and unbeatable with the rake

  • ActionJunkie

    The big $3 GPP cash line was TWENTY points lower than the double-up cash lines… that’s the crazy part. This year has strangely had quite a few gpp cash lines lower than double-up cash lines but damn by 20 points this time.

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    you bring those jigs on live poker. you bring them. i had to be pulled off fronted some cat with 200 for some white. you bring those cats ………pokerstars. i suck at poker.

  • ricky146

    nba dfs has no edge this year, I miss the days of 250-260 50/50 cash lines… I guess the cash games are just filled with no life sharks now so it’s made the cash games rough, it seems to be a hard sport to turn a profit in this season unless you are a gpp player or some shark that stares at his computer 24/7.

  • ricky146

    I notice people also keep bringing up that tourneys are bigger now but that’s irrelevant because the cash lines in those big gpp’s are lower than cash game in nba now

  • MikeMineo

    Not even sure why people play NBA cash games tbh. Extremely similar cash lines without the upside of GPPs. If you really dig your optimal lineup it seems more prudent to enter that multiple times in a GPP.

  • madmanjayWV

    @Yombo said...

    complaining about high scores is not really that legitimate even if people are scoring way more this year than in previous seasons.More impactful would be to reflect over where you missed or where you got a decent performance but maybe overpaid for a guy. That’s where real progress is going to come from. Missing might not mean the same to everyone, getting a complete dud is obvious, but maybe paying 6.6 for a guy like bradley who gets just about 30 is a less obvious miss when everyone around him went ballistic and a lot of value below him matched or exceeded him. Even then, it shouldn’t be 100% results based. Sometimes you just overlook guys at a position as you get focused on a few of the guys jumping out at you.

    i also do think this is the new norm, you wont be cashing really high in gpps with anyone suboptimal (obviously) and you’ll need guys to really hit their ceilings across the board probably to win. and the days of hitting cash with several duds is probably over as well, unless they are like 75% owned or something

    everyone wants credit for hitting 300+ but when that’s probably not even a median score than what does it matter that you put up 300+

    even with all that considered, it does come down to luck frequently. the skill level seems to have increased as well as randomness with all the value that opens up nightly

    PUTTING $600 into a $4 CLUTCH SHOT on 150 MAX ENTRIES with plenty of friends makes life well for all parties!!!!

  • madmanjayWV

    @ricky146 said...

    I notice people also keep bringing up that tourneys are bigger now but that’s irrelevant because the cash lines in those big gpp’s are lower than cash game in nba now

    THE SWAT on FANDUEL is horrid..it’s not BIGGER @ all

  • TheRealJosh5

    just wait till march when teams start resting half it’s starters and all the value goes off paired with it’s high price players. Scores are insane.

  • noddy

    @MikeMineo said...

    Not even sure why people play NBA cash games tbh. Extremely similar cash lines without the upside of GPPs. If you really dig your optimal lineup it seems more prudent to enter that multiple times in a GPP.

    Post of the year contender right here folks

  • Dmurphy104

    • Blogger of the Month

    I don’t get the complaining. When you have guys like Ilyasova scoring over 50 points on FD on a small slate, you will have hagh scores. I don’t think the pricing is that terrible. You just have guys like Westbrook, Boogie and Harden going off basically every night. That’s not a DFS problem. You just need to adjust.

  • crazypaul

    @rainbowtroutman said...

    same thing tonite—320 to 325 to cash for the $2 and $5 DU’s——-getting unplayable and unbeatable with the rake

    The cash line in the $2 single entry 50/50’s last night was right around 300.

  • crazypaul

    @Dmurphy104 said...

    I don’t get the complaining. When you have guys like Ilyasova scoring over 50 points on FD on a small slate, you will have hagh scores. I don’t think the pricing is that terrible. You just have guys like Westbrook, Boogie and Harden going off basically every night. That’s not a DFS problem. You just need to adjust.

    Lets not forget, this same thing happened the first 5 or 6 weeks of NFL. All the cheap chalk was hitting like crazy allowing us to squeeze in multiple stars and scores were nuts. It’s a combination of smarter players, more information available, and poor salary construction by the sites.

    Honestly, on FD, Ersan Ilyasova has averaged 6.2x his salary for his last 10 games and his price has only risen $700 in that span from $3900 to $4600. That is too slow for an adjustment, and the adjustment is not enough. Also, the algo they use should account for “known” lineup projections. It’s been known for days that Embiid & Okafor would be out this game and none of the front courts salaries were adjusted. I used Ilyasova & Holmes in my single lineup for this very reason last night and was shocked ownership was 15.5% & 13.6% respectively in the Swat 3-max.

    Another reason scores are high is for some reason, FD refuses to move players to their actual position this year. Holmes was a PF last night, yet he has not played a single minute at PF this season. Harden & ABC? Both SG’s on FD instead of PG because FD wants people to be able to play multiple stars without making “those decisions”. I get that SG would be a wasteland if they were listed at PG, but it would make scores lower by forcing people to choose between some of these stars.

    On a side note, I scored 383.3 last night with my single lineup, so I aint mad ;)

  • tbro421

    They should publish like on lottery tickets the probability of winning with mathematical optimizers versus hand selected and researched lineups. When I see near perfect lineups every night it gives the impression that DFS is somehow in the words of Donald Trump “a RIGGED system”.

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