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  • JMToWin

    • x2

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    I’ll keep this short. (As the masses laugh…)

    As most of you know, I write an “NFL Edge” article in RG Premium that takes me about 25 to 30 hours to put together each week, and in which I break down every game from top to bottom, from a DFS perspective (looking at game flow, coaching tendencies, matchups, DFS game theory, etc.). It’s a pretty cool article.

    Many of you, however, may not have access to that article. Of course, the likeliest reason for this to be the case is that the amount of money you put in play each weekend in NFL DFS is not enough for you to justify paying $25 a month for Premium. I totally get that! I wish there were a solution for you to have access to that article as well…but I have thought about it, and there really is not. Frankly, no other article in the industry goes as in-depth as that one, so making it available for free would really minimize the edge gained for those who do pay for a Premium subscription. It’s a conundrum, and it sucks, but it is what it is.

    I wanted to bring up a few quick thoughts, though. Presumably, even if the amount you put in play each NFL weekend is too little to justify a “five coffees a month” subscription, you still have a desire to ultimately reach a point where that would be a drop in your pond labeled “DFS Bankroll.” Which brings me to a thought that has been stirring in my mind…

    I just paused in my game-by-game breakdown to write this week’s intro to that article. I got a bit carried away (naturally). But I shared some roster construction thoughts, and then I talked about how I study the teams of other profitable players every slate I play – in MLB and NFL. It’s not that I think these guys know more than me; but I do think some of these guys probably know things that are different from what I know. By studying the lineups of others, you can gain some insight into how they think, what they were seeing that week, and how they went about piecing together their roster.

    To be completely honest, I am borderline-shocked each week by how few H2H challenges I receive on DraftKings. Why? Because you can send free H2H challenges! Even if you do not have the bankroll to justify paying for subscription-based content, you can still take steps to continue your NFL DFS education each weekend.

    I often hear people complain about “multi-entry players.” What most people overlook, however, is that many of these players are also profitable in high-dollar tourneys, in single-entry tourneys, and in H2Hs. Shoot a free H2H request to a number of profitable players each weekend. Then, don’t look at their roster to “see how they performed.” Instead, recognize that these guys are profitable over time; as such, you should be studying their lineups with an eye toward “Trying to figure out what their process was,” regardless of what the results look like that week.

    I study the lineups of tons of players each weekend.

    I read articles by a bunch of different writers each weekend.

    Heck, I just finished studying PrimeTime’s new RotoAcademy course – Advanced Tournament Strategies for NFL DFS (it was killer, by the way!).

    It’s not that I think these people know more than me. But I do think they know things that are different from what I know – and I can pick up these things and incorporate them into my own process, in order to continually improve my own results.

    I led off my intro in the NFL Edge this week by saying, “I see a lot of dumb lineups. I mean, really, a lot.” And I truly do.

    There is definitely an edge to be gained in NFL DFS. There is definitely money to be made.

    And listen: those who are willing to put in more work than others – those who are willing to continue learning, and continue improving – will be in perfect position to maximize this edge, and maximize profits as a result.

    Please share any thoughts you have on this topic below, or any questions you have for me on this topic (I’ll try to drop by later in the week to answer anything that pops up for me). And I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

  • jminrod

    When you mentioned a lot of dumb lineups are you talking about Cash/H2H? I see a lot of tournament lineups with long shots but I believe that is on purpose.

    Can you share what you are seeing this year as far as average scores on FD & DK to win H2H and 50/50’s.
    Not sure if that is a stat willing to share but I have been waiting until week 4 to really get into playing DFS using my own projections to make sure the numbers are good enough.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    While I cannot tell you exactly what JM meant, I have seen so many lineups in double ups, 50/50’s that would qualify as ‘dumb’. I was looking through my H2H’s from this past weekend and so many guys use players with VERY low floors, that I would only use in GPP’s.

    I am a cash player true to heart, and I 100% agree with him that if you work hard, keep improving your game, DFS is still beatable. I see so many people say that it’s just a small amount of people who win, but maybe it’s because that small amount use proper bankroll management and work hard on their lineups? I know I don’t think I’m anything special, but my bankroll seems to increase through every DFS season (MLB, NFL, NBA).

  • bestintheworld

    BITW

    @JMToWin said...

    And listen: those who are willing to put in more work than others – those who are willing to continue learning, and continue improving – will be in perfect position to maximize this edge, and maximize profits as a result.

    Seriously though, everything you wrote is accurate. It angers me when I see people post on Grinders or comment on Twitter discrediting the hard work of others — such as when Al won this past Sunday. Nobody wants to give credit where credit is due. Nobody wants to put in the work. They want the easy way out.

  • peachfuzz

    • Blogger of the Month

    Speaking to the first part of your post about the premium contact, what blows my mind is that people refuse to pay for it. I’m just a regular RG user like most of the other people around here, but I see others complaining about the cost all of the time.

    I have to say that anyone who does not pay up for RG premium is really doing themselves a disservice if they are serious about wanting to capitalize on any edge in any sport.

    I was on RG for exactly four days before paying the $99 for the NBA Incentives two seasons ago because I realized the value of the information contained therein at the absolute infancy of my playing DFS. Granted, I have only paid up for the NBA content because I haven’t given other sports serious dedication, but it seems that all of the content, and tools from all sports have done nothing but continue to get better.

    I may be off base here, but it is apparent to me that the RG crew have been striving to make this place a “one stop shop” for DFS research. They have incorporated just about every tool out there in one place, and add really good, valuable, well thought, in-depth commentary by players who are proven winners season after season on top of everything else. Where else can you get this information contained in one place? That’s right, nowhere. Just the time saved alone is worth the price of admission.

    Speaking of which, I just signed up for the $25/month package without even a second thought because I’ve decided to put more effort into other sports, and I’ve had nothing but a great experience with the NBA content.

  • B_Edelman

    As someone who does pay the $25 a month, one thing that I would suggest is including at least some of the rotoacademy courses in the subscription. Steps to make the incentives subscriptions more “all inclusive” would be welcomed.

  • jminrod

    Can anyone share what they are seeing as far as average scores to win? I think when I had my notes it was 120 to win cash game and 180 GPP. Of course they are broad statements but just curious if that has changed over the last 2 years or this within the ball park of scores I should be hoping to hit.

  • bcalarco12

    On FD, cash line for $2 DU was around 130 for Week 1, 110 for Week 2.

  • anilprao88

    • 19

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #14

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2017 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2018 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    @jminrod said...

    Can anyone share what they are seeing as far as average scores to win? I think when I had my notes it was 120 to win cash game and 180 GPP.

    180 will almost never win you a GPP, and you will almost never need 180 to cash in a GPP.

  • Linsanity88

    @jminrod said...

    Can anyone share what they are seeing as far as average scores to win? I think when I had my notes it was 120 to win cash game and 180 GPP. Of course they are broad statements but just curious if that has changed over the last 2 years or this within the ball park of scores I should be hoping to hit.

    120 for cash games on FanDuel and 140-150 on DraftKings is a good ball park, but those numbers vary from week to week. GPP cash lines and top scores vary wildly depending on field size and structure (number of entries per player allowed, percent of the field paid, how top heavy the prize pool is, etc.). You should be aiming to build the best lineups possible rather than shooting for a specific score anyways. JM’s “How to Construct Winning Daily Fantasy Football Rosters” course is absolute gold in this regard.

  • glennantz

    @Linsanity88 said...

    JM’s “How to Construct Winning Daily Fantasy Football Rosters” course is absolute gold in this regard.

    This sounds like good advice. Do you know when you purchase the coarse is it a one time thing or do you have the ability to go back later and look at it again.

  • mellofellowsu

    @jminrod said...

    Can anyone share what they are seeing as far as average scores to win? I think when I had my notes it was 120 to win cash game and 180 GPP. Of course they are broad statements but just curious if that has changed over the last 2 years or this within the ball park of scores I should be hoping to hit.

    First two weeks of the GPP I play on FD, 189 won it in week 1 and 211 won in week 2.

  • srk8987

    Managing Editor

    @glennantz said...

    This sounds like good advice. Do you know when you purchase the coarse is it a one time thing or do you have the ability to go back later and look at it again.

    Once you purchase a course, you can access it whenever you want.

  • JMToWin

    • x2

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @jminrod said...

    When you mentioned a lot of dumb lineups are you talking about Cash/H2H? I see a lot of tournament lineups with long shots but I believe that is on purpose.

    Talking specifically about cash and H2H. As @bhdevault said, there are just a lot of lineups with low-floor players. I lost a H2H in Week 1 to someone who played Nelson Agholor. That’s just one example – out of many. But what mattered there was not that Agholor had a good game; what mattered was that’s the type of play that will lose money over the long run.

  • JMToWin

    • x2

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @Linsanity88 said...

    JM’s “How to Construct Winning Daily Fantasy Football Rosters” course is absolute gold in this regard.

    Thanks for the love, brother.

    Here is a link to the first lesson of that course, for anyone who wants to check it out. I’m honestly not all that interested in trying to pump up sales or anything, so I hope this doesn’t come across as “salesy,” but that course is genuinely my favorite strategy piece I have ever written. Anytime someone asks me what course of mine they should purchase first, I point them to that one.

  • JMToWin

    • x2

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @B_Edelman said...

    As someone who does pay the $25 a month, one thing that I would suggest is including at least some of the rotoacademy courses in the subscription. Steps to make the incentives subscriptions more “all inclusive” would be welcomed.

    I wish there were a way to do that, for sure! I really do want to figure out a way to create more integration there (something like, “Premium subscribers get $1 in RotoAcademy bucks each month”). But the issue with integrating that more fully is twofold:

    1) RotoAcademy is not technically a RotoGrinders product. It is Bales’ baby, and we host that content and help promote it. So while RG benefits if more people subscribe to Premium, Bales does not benefit.

    2) The writers of those courses get paid off the sales. So if we gave their courses away for free, that would hurt them!

    Maybe I’ll try to write a couple “mini courses” that we can put in Premium, as a sort of “meet in the middle” solution.

  • Johno

    I would love a lower priced International subscriber option (Im in Australia)… As much as I would love the access to the content… I cant justify the $25/month because I cannot use DK or FD and we have limited options with much smaller fields… Our biggest tourney in Week 2 had $1200 first prize for $15 buy in… A subscription option for the contents at $10/month during the regular season or $80/year etc (for NBA as well) and I’d be all over that

  • JMToWin

    • x2

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @Johno said...

    I would love a lower priced International subscriber option (Im in Australia)… As much as I would love the access to the content… I cant justify the $25/month because I cannot use DK or FD and we have limited options with much smaller fields… Our biggest tourney in Week 2 had $1200 first prize for $15 buy in… A subscription option for the contents at $10/month during the regular season or $80/year etc (for NBA as well) and I’d be all over that

    That’s an awesome idea. Definitely something I don’t think we’ve ever really thought of.

  • Johno

    @JMToWin said...

    That’s an awesome idea. Definitely something I don’t think we’ve ever really thought of.

    Definitely worth a try I’d say… I’d be first up as I play both NBA and NFL and we have at least a few hundred weekly NFL fantasy players on the site I play on and even more NBA players….

    I’m just sick of having to look at the same experts pumping up the same chalk BS every week on the “free’ sites… I get better food for thought from the public forum here

  • mjordantmac

    • 2016 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    This applies to everything in life and was well said by JM. To add a little bit, I don’t have a poker or finance background, started out with a $100 deposit, and now dedicate my life to DFS. I can attribute most of my success to studying other players I admired and putting countless hours into something I ultimately wanted.

    “If you do what other successful people do, you will enjoy the same results and rewards that they do.” -Brian Tracy

  • FrancisBooth

    I am not a coffee drinker by any means but is it really five dollars for a cup now?

  • btwice80

    @Johno said...

    I’m just sick of having to look at the same experts pumping up the same chalk BS every week on the “free’ sites… I get better food for thought from the public forum here

    You must not be reading Evan Silva. His column is free and as good/useful as any premium product available.

  • Johno

    Thanks man, I’ll check him out

    Edit: just googled him, I didn’t realise this place had such good free content… I only ever used the boards…. I would then go off an trowel through all the mainstream media (espn, NFL.com, etc BS)

    Thanks again

  • wolfjb1

    It is for the fancy stuff. I still get my extra large vat of plain old black coffee from Dunk every morning for $2.49.

  • JMToWin

    • x2

      2014 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2016 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    @FrancisBooth said...

    I am not a coffee drinker by any means but is it really five dollars for a cup now?

    I don’t even get a fancy drink. Just a black coffee with two shots of espresso. (No cream, no sugar – naturally.) Costs $4.05. I live in Oregon, where there is no sales tax. The fact that it magically comes out to $4.05 tells me they hope I pay with cash and then drop the change in the tip jar – which I inevitably do.

    $5

    The system wins again…

  • catmando

    Its all good and well but it really is not that hard to make an NFL lineup i would be willing to bet most people who play fantasy of some sort or watch football can make a lineup. What they can not do is manage their money or figure rake. With FD declaring 15% rake in all Sunday NFL GPP going forward that is going to be hard to beat unless you make some dumb luck lineups.

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